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dzipio
09-28-2006, 12:51 PM
Does someone have the stats on starters records '05 vs. '06? It seems like the starters all had pretty good records, except Buehrle, and not looking at e.r.a. I'm still trying to make sense of how they blew this thing.

soxfan13
09-28-2006, 01:07 PM
Lack of focus which equalled High ERA!

Iwritecode
09-28-2006, 01:12 PM
2005
Buehrle 16-8
Garcia 14-8
Contreras 15-7
Garland 18-10
Hernandez 9-9
bullpen 27-21

2006
Buehrle 12-13
Garcia 16-9
Contreras 16-9
Garland 17-7
Vasquez 11-11
bullpen 16-22

There are the reasons right there. Record-wise, the other 4 starters were about where they were last year.

itsnotrequired
09-28-2006, 01:13 PM
Does someone have the stats on starters records '05 vs. '06? It seems like the starters all had pretty good records, except Buehrle, and not looking at e.r.a. I'm still trying to make sense of how they blew this thing.

The stats will just reinforce the idea that they had a bad season. A stat can't tell you WHY something happened.

mccoydp
09-28-2006, 02:11 PM
2005
Buehrle 16-8
Garcia 14-8
Contreras 15-7
Garland 18-10
Hernandez 9-9
bullpen 27-21

2006
Buehrle 12-13
Garcia 16-9
Contreras 16-9
Garland 17-7
Vasquez 11-11
bullpen 16-22

There are the reasons right there. Record-wise, the other 4 starters were about where they were last year.

One small correction: Contreras was 13-9 in '06.

kitekrazy
09-28-2006, 02:27 PM
Lack of focus which equalled High ERA!

Also the unclutch bullpen assuring your runners left one would score.

ma-gaga
09-28-2006, 02:50 PM
Win Expectancy is a pretty solid tool to use to see what happened. This doesn't have any value in terms of projecting what will happen, but it goes thru each game and tells you who was the most valuable player in each game.

I don't quite know the relative value of each WPA point, I think it's "games over 0.500". So, J.Dye has added a total value of 5 wins over 0.500 on the year. A score of 0.00 is average (0.500 record), so regulars that have picked up scores of ~0 (Crede for example), are actually pretty valuable members of a team. They don't weigh the team down.


http://www.tc.umn.edu/~dunca016/2006%20White%20Sox%20-%20WPA.jpg

Basically, the bullpen and starting pitching dropped off a cliff, and the additional offense didn't make up for it. I got my numbers from HERE. (http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=White%20Sox&season=2006)

Like I said, I don't think this has any predictive value, but I think it's very valuable at tabulating WHAT happened.

Enjoy. :gulp:

the gooch
09-28-2006, 02:59 PM
Win Expectancy is a pretty solid tool to use to see what happened. This doesn't have any value in terms of projecting what will happen, but it goes thru each game and tells you who was the most valuable player in each game.
So this says Cliff Politte was our MVP last year?

itsnotrequired
09-28-2006, 03:14 PM
So this says Cliff Politte was our MVP last year?

You have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. I mean, the numbers also show that Fields has contributed to wins more than Crede has this year.

And Politte was indeed a beast last year. ERA of 2.00, WHIP of 0.94 and an opponent AVE of .181. Didn't he have something like 31 innings straight where he didn't give up a run? I wouldn't say he was the MVP but he was a crucial piece of the team last year.

downstairs
09-28-2006, 03:16 PM
Win/Loss records are about as relevant as a pitcher's favorite color.

Iwritecode
09-28-2006, 03:19 PM
Win/Loss records are about as relevant as a pitcher's favorite color.

I agree but they do reinforce the facts that Buehrle was our worst starter this year and the bullpen has been horrible.

soxfanatlanta
09-28-2006, 03:28 PM
The pitching walked 28 less this year - good
They gave up 31 more home runs this year - ugly.

Way too many gofer balls tossed this year.

stl_sox_fan
09-28-2006, 03:39 PM
2006
Buehrle 12-13



I am curious to see if something comes out that MB has some sort of injury or just plain old fatigue from so many innings over the past seasons.

Iwritecode
09-28-2006, 03:50 PM
I am curious to see if something comes out that MB has some sort of injury or just plain old fatigue from so many innings over the past seasons.

The only explanation I've read from Mark is that the league "figured him out" and he plans to make some adjustments in the offseason.

Ol' No. 2
09-28-2006, 04:03 PM
I agree but they do reinforce the facts that Buehrle was our worst starter this year and the bullpen has been horrible.True, but they also seem to imply that the other starters were about as good as last year. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their records benefitted from the greatly increased run production, especially the first half.

assrevolution
09-28-2006, 04:14 PM
Win/Loss records are about as relevant as a pitcher's favorite color.

Exactly. We should only sign pitchers with losing records because they're the best!

ma-gaga
09-28-2006, 04:14 PM
You have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. I mean, the numbers also show that Fields has contributed to wins more than Crede has this year.

And Politte was indeed a beast last year. ERA of 2.00, WHIP of 0.94 and an opponent AVE of .181. Didn't he have something like 31 innings straight where he didn't give up a run? I wouldn't say he was the MVP but he was a crucial piece of the team last year.

Exactly. There needs to be a way of adjusting for playing time. This is strictly total raw numbers.

Fields could have one game, where he comes up in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, down by a run with a runner on first... If he hits a walkoff homerun he could get a WPA of 0.50 for that game all by himself.

For example, Garland must have had a pretty good at bat during interleague play this year. He had one big hit, or HBP, or sacrifice, or whatever.

:gulp:

ma-gaga
09-28-2006, 04:18 PM
So this says Cliff Politte was our MVP last year?

He had a stellar first third of the year. Then he got hurt.

But when he was healthy, he shut down teams. He had something like 22 saves in 24 opportunities??

The stars were aligned. :cool:

PatK
09-28-2006, 04:39 PM
Garland did have that homer.

MB said that he needs to be in better shape at the beginning of the season next year than he was at the beggining of this year.