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View Full Version : *Official* - Postseason elemination thread


itsnotrequired
08-28-2006, 10:40 AM
The Royals are now mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Which team will be next? I'm guessing Tampa Bay.

Railsplitter
08-28-2006, 10:42 AM
Would a Sox sweep eliminate the D-Rays?

itsnotrequired
08-28-2006, 10:44 AM
Would a Sox sweep eliminate the D-Rays?

It would depend on how the other AL teams perform but at first glance, it does not appear so.

EDIT: Okay, here's my stab at how Tampa Bay could be swept and still make the playoffs.

D-Rays are swept by the Sox and then win the rest of their games. Final record would be 80-82. If we assume the Yankees lose all their remaining games, then they would have a final record of 77-85. Boston would also need to lose all their games. However, Boston and New York play each other four more times. If the Yankees lose all of their games, then Boston must win four of their remaining games. Assuming they get those four against the Yankees and lose every other game, Boston would finish with a record of 75-87. So far, so good. But now we need to look at Toronto.

Toronto plays Boston 8 more times and plays New York 3 more times. If Boston and New York lose all those games, than Toronto has to win. Assuming these 11 games are the only wins Toronto gets, then they would finish with a record of 80-82, the same as Tampa Bay. Uh oh! I'm not sure how a tiebreaker would work so let's make it simple and say Boston wins one of those games. Now Toronto finishes with a record of 79-83 and Boston moves up to 76-86. Tampa Bay is now in sole position of first place in the AL East. But what about Baltimore?

Baltimore plays the Yankees 7 more times and Boston 4. They do not play Toronto at all. Remember, the Yankees and Red Sox are losing damn near every game so Baltimore has to win these 11 against the Red Sox and Yankees. Let's say they drop all the rest. This would give them a final record of 70-92, still well below the Devil Rays.

Assuming all this plays out, the final standings in the AL East would be:

80-82 Tampa Bay
79-83 Toronto
77-85 New York
76-86 Boston
70-92 Baltimore

QED:cool:

Not only can Tampa Bay be swept by the Sox and still make the playoffs, they could still win the AL East. The chances of this actually happening? About a gazillion to one...

getonbckthr
08-28-2006, 12:06 PM
It would depend on how the other AL teams perform but at first glance, it does not appear so.

EDIT: Okay, here's my stab at how Tampa Bay could be swept and still make the playoffs.

D-Rays are swept by the Sox and then win the rest of their games. Final record would be 80-82. If we assume the Yankees lose all their remaining games, then they would have a final record of 77-85. Boston would also need to lose all their games. However, Boston and New York play each other four more times. If the Yankees lose all of their games, then Boston must win four of their remaining games. Assuming they get those four against the Yankees and lose every other game, Boston would finish with a record of 75-87. So far, so good. But now we need to look at Toronto.

Toronto plays Boston 8 more times and plays New York 3 more times. If Boston and New York lose all those games, than Toronto has to win. Assuming these 11 games are the only wins Toronto gets, then they would finish with a record of 80-82, the same as Tampa Bay. Uh oh! I'm not sure how a tiebreaker would work so let's make it simple and say Boston wins one of those games. Now Toronto finishes with a record of 79-83 and Boston moves up to 76-86. Tampa Bay is now in sole position of first place in the AL East. But what about Baltimore?

Baltimore plays the Yankees 7 more times and Boston 4. They do not play Toronto at all. Remember, the Yankees and Red Sox are losing damn near every game so Baltimore has to win these 11 against the Red Sox and Yankees. Let's say they drop all the rest. This would give them a final record of 70-92, still well below the Devil Rays.

Assuming all this plays out, the final standings in the AL East would be:

80-82 Tampa Bay
79-83 Toronto
77-85 New York
76-86 Boston
70-92 Baltimore

QED:cool:

Not only can Tampa Bay be swept by the Sox and still make the playoffs, they could still win the AL East. The chances of this actually happening? About a gazillion to one...
:?:





:D:

areilly
08-28-2006, 12:07 PM
Can we eliminate the entire National League right now? When only one team out of sixteen has a record that could compete with even the lowly AL West(NYM 79-49, OAK 74-56), it's hard to believe they're going to snap that eight-game World Series game losing streak.

Speculatively, I'm looking to the Nats to be the next ones out.

I'm all for close races and all, but this is different...remember the interleague series? Even KC dominated!

Could this actually be the year that a team with a losing record makes it into the postseason?

itsnotrequired
08-28-2006, 12:18 PM
Speculatively, I'm looking to the Nats to be the next ones out.

Just like the Devil Rays, the Nationals are still mathematically eligible to win their division. The Nationals are also 5.5 games ahead of the Pirates for the Wild Card. I would imagine the Pirates would fall before the Nationals. However, I still believe the Devil Rays will be out before any NL team. There is simply too much parity in the NL (granted, very sucky but parity nonetheless).

itsnotrequired
08-28-2006, 12:19 PM
:?:





:D:

Here's the condensed version:


After the sweep, Tampa Bay wins all remaining games to finish 80-82
Yankees lose all remaining games to finish 77-85
Toronto loses all remaining games except their 3 against the Yankees and 7 of their 8 against Boston to finish 79-83
Boston loses all remaining games except the one against Toronto and their 4 against New York to finish 76-86
Baltimore loses all remaining games except their 7 against New York and 4 against Boston to finish 70-92.
Final standings:
80-82 Tampa Bay
79-83 Toronto
77-85 New York
76-86 Boston
70-92 Baltimore

0o0o0
08-28-2006, 12:23 PM
The Royals are now mathematically eliminated from the postseason.

Poor Royals are just playing for pride now. :cool:

FielderJones
08-28-2006, 12:28 PM
Just like the Devil Rays, the Nationals are still mathematically eligible to win the NL East. The Nationals are also 5.5 games ahead of the Pirates for the Wild Card. I would imagine the Pirates would fall before the Nationals. However, I still believe the Devil Rays will be out before any NL team. There is simply too much parity in the NL (granted, very sucky but parity nonetheless).

Since the RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/) listings take all your hard schedule analysis work into account, the teams with the smallest differential between Games Left and Avoid Elim (Playoffs) are the ones closest to the elimination bubble. As of start of play today, Monday Aug 28, The Devil Rays need to win 26 of their 31 remaining games to stay in, a 5-game spread. The Nationals have an 8-game spread, and the Pirates have a 9-game spread, so the Nationals are currently the next most likely out after the Devil Rays. All remaining eligible AL teams have double-digit spreads.

Foulke You
08-28-2006, 12:30 PM
Poor Royals are just playing for pride now. :cool:
I think that pretty much was happening in May.:D:

itsnotrequired
08-28-2006, 12:35 PM
Since the RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/) listings take all your hard schedule analysis work into account, the teams with the smallest differential between Games Left and Avoid Elim (Playoffs) are the ones closest to the elimination bubble. As of start of play today, Monday Aug 28, The Devil Rays need to win 26 of their 31 remaining games to stay in, a 5-game spread. The Nationals have an 8-game spread, and the Pirates have a 9-game spread, so the Nationals are currently the next most likely out after the Devil Rays. All remaining eligible AL teams have double-digit spreads.

RIOT was where I started but looked up the schedules to see what actually needed to happen.

Also, the Nationals have a 13 game differential. 8 games is their differential for 1st place.

FielderJones
08-28-2006, 12:52 PM
Also, the Nationals have a 13 game differential. 8 games is their differential for 1st place.

Oops, wrong column. :redface:

itsnotrequired
09-05-2006, 08:05 AM
Tampa Bay is now out. Looks like the Pirates or Orioles will be next.

Chips
09-05-2006, 11:42 PM
Tampa Bay is now out. Looks like the Pirates or Orioles will be next.

Looks like you were right.

itsnotrequired
09-06-2006, 08:24 AM
Looks like you were right.

They are both technically still alive. The Cubs are now in serious contention for being the next team eliminated.

skottyj242
09-06-2006, 10:58 AM
They are both technically still alive. The Cubs are now in serious contention for being the next team eliminated.

I like the cut of your jib sailor. I'm going to have to go with the Cubbies.

itsnotrequired
09-06-2006, 11:12 AM
I like the cut of your jib sailor. I'm going to have to go with the Cubbies.

Tough call. The Cubs have two more against the Pirates and then head to Atlanta. Baltimore has one more against the Angels and then the Yankees come to town.

soxfan13
09-06-2006, 11:22 AM
Here's the condensed version:



After the sweep, Tampa Bay wins all remaining games to finish 80-82
Yankees lose all remaining games to finish 77-85
Toronto loses all remaining games except their 3 against the Yankees and 7 of their 8 against Boston to finish 79-83
Boston loses all remaining games except the one against Toronto and their 4 against New York to finish 76-86
Baltimore loses all remaining games except their 7 against New York and 4 against Boston to finish 70-92.Final standings:
80-82 Tampa Bay
79-83 Toronto
77-85 New York
76-86 Boston
70-92 Baltimore


Thank you that was much better then the book you wrote previously:smile:

itsnotrequired
09-07-2006, 07:40 AM
The Nationals are no longer able to clinch the NL East. They are still alive for the Wild Card. I think they will make it.

itsnotrequired
09-11-2006, 08:21 AM
Well, the Cubs managed to become the first NL team to be eliminated from the postseason. I know that team wasn't very good but I don't think anyone believed at the start of the season that they would be the first ones to go.

Baltimore players also get their minds ready for some October golf outings as they become the third AL team eliminated.

Pittsburgh is all but guaranteed to be the next team to go.

itsnotrequired
09-13-2006, 04:58 PM
Pittsburgh is indeed the latest to bow out. Altanta is also eliminated from finishing first in the division.

23Ventura
09-13-2006, 08:58 PM
Altanta is also eliminated from finishing first in the division.
I was 2 years old the last time that happened.

itsnotrequired
09-14-2006, 09:57 PM
The Marlins and our little friends in Cleveland are now eliminated from afinishing first in their repective divisions.

Who would have thought that Cleveland would have the 4th worst record in the AL? With today's loss, they should be out come tomorrow. Wow, what a difference a year makes...