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lakeviewsoxfan
08-22-2006, 01:47 PM
Will get the Sox in the playoffs with 95 victorys.

sox1970
08-22-2006, 01:52 PM
Will get the Sox in the playoffs with 95 victorys.

As long as 4 of those victories are against the Twins, yes I agree. Otherwise, I'm still at 96.

35th&Shields
08-22-2006, 01:58 PM
22-16 Will get the Sox in the playoffs with 95 victorys.
22-16. That's a .579 winning percentage the rest of the way. We are currently at .589 overall, including a somewhat disastrous July. 23 more wins out of 38 games would be .605 for 96 total wins. If we keep taking 2/3 as we've been doing (with the exception of the Twins) that'd be a .666 winning percentage the rest of the way and should get us there. I think it's a 2-way race between us and the Twins and we're the better team.

caulfield12
08-22-2006, 02:00 PM
Will get the Sox in the playoffs with 95 victorys.

victories, and I think 94 or 95 could do it, because there's no way this Twins' team is better overall than the 2002-04 versions.

IlliniSox
08-22-2006, 02:05 PM
because there's no way this Twins' team is better overall than the 2002-04 versions.

Very good point (I'm assuming you're not counting on Liriano's return anytime soon), that's a perspective I haven't taken yet.

1917
08-22-2006, 02:06 PM
2, 3, 4 years ago we would have won the central by 10 games with 95 wins...my how times change!

miker
08-22-2006, 02:07 PM
Funny, if you listen to the media, the season is over no matter what the Sox do.

Personally, I'm not confident 95 wins guarantees a playoff spot, so if the Sox do better that 22-16 from here on out, that is fine by me!

salty99
08-22-2006, 02:10 PM
Considering we are 16-20 since the all-star break I'll take any winning record over the next 2 months.

buehrle4cy05
08-22-2006, 02:28 PM
Optimistic thought of the week:

2006 will end the same way as 2005 if we end up having to fight for the Wild Card. Remember how Cleveland had 3 against Kansas City, 3 against Tampa Bay, and then 3 with the Sox to close the season out? Everybody thought it would be a cakewalk for them in those 6 games and the final three of the season would decide the division. Well, Grady Sizemore drops a fly ball in the last game of the KC series, Indians lose that one and go on to lose the next two, giving the White Sox ample time to clinch before the series against Cleveland. Maybe Cleveland took those six games for granted and was looking ahead to the Sox series, I don't know. All I know is that the Indians blew it against the bottom of the AL. This year, Minnesota finishes with 3 in Baltimore, 4 in KC, and then 3 with the Sox. Both Minnesota and Cleveland played out of their minds in the second half of the season, coming out of nowhere to challenge the Sox. My prediction: Minnesota overlooks Baltimore and KC, and the Sox clinch the Wild Card in the last week. That's if they aren't in the race for the division (which I hope they are).

nebraskasox
08-22-2006, 02:34 PM
Considering we are 16-20 since the all-star break I'll take any winning record over the next 2 months.

And 21-24 in July and August. They are 59-47 against the AL (.557), 30-24 against the Central (556). SO, they will have to play better than they have to this point to go 22-16 (.579). They can do it but there's no time to waste.

samram
08-22-2006, 02:36 PM
My prediction: Minnesota overlooks Baltimore and KC, and the Sox clinch the Wild Card in the last week. That's if they aren't in the race for the division (which I hope they are).

Good analysis except that Minnesota has a real manager and not Eric Wedge. Gardenhire won't let them go to sleep for a week thinking the only games that mattered were those at the Dome to end the season.

SoxSpeed22
08-22-2006, 02:46 PM
Or better yet, all those Twins players that were bums last year come back to Earth and they start losing again.

soxinem1
08-22-2006, 02:49 PM
victories, and I think 94 or 95 could do it, because there's no way this Twins' team is better overall than the 2002-04 versions.

I disagree. They have a better closer now, a deeper BP, solid defense, and some pesky high average contact hitters. Even guys like Tyner and Redmond are killing the ball. Other than Silva, I'll take their top three starters with anyone's. Plus, now they are winning without a true #5 starter and their #2 is hurt. When Liriano comes back, they can use four starters for the duration, and maybe even do three in the playoffs if they make it.

Their pitchers hold runners well, and both catchers throw well. Between Garcia, Contreras, Vasquez, AJ, and Alomar, Konerko and Thome would have 30 steals running off those guys everyday.

What would we do if contreras or Buerhle got hurt. How about C-ya later!!

Plus, the Twins have some of the best base runners in MLB, unlike the Sox. They may not be the fastest, but they are very heads-up.

I like this team in a playoff series more than the Tigers, at this point.

caulfield12
08-22-2006, 03:04 PM
I disagree. They have a better closer now, a deeper BP, solid defense, and some pesky high average contact hitters. Even guys like Tyner and Redmond are killing the ball. Other than Silva, I'll take their top three starters with anyone's. Plus, now they are winning without a true #5 starter and their #2 is hurt. When Liriano comes back, they can use four starters for the duration, and maybe even do three in the playoffs if they make it.

Their pitchers hold runners well, and both catchers throw well. Between Garcia, Contreras, Vasquez, AJ, and Alomar, Konerko and Thome would have 30 steals running off those guys everyday.

What would we do if contreras or Buerhle got hurt. How about C-ya later!!

Plus, the Twins have some of the best base runners in MLB, unlike the Sox. They may not be the fastest, but they are very heads-up.

I like this team in a playoff series more than the Tigers, at this point.

2002 Twins 94-68
2003 Twins 90-72
2004 Twins 92-70

The Twins have lived off Santana, Liriano and Radke (since June).

Silva has been a capable four, but his ERA over the season is still abysmal. Their fifth starters are still much worse than Vazquez, if you add up what Lohse, Bonser, Baker and Garza have done this season. Those 02-04 teams had much more depth (and veteran, experienced depth) in the rotation, this team has absolute dominance from two guys and grit/determination from Radke and Silva.

The question to me is how much grit/determination we'll see from our starters down the stretch. Every White Sox starter has been pitching, statistically at least, like the Twins' fourth and fifth starters.

As a Sox fan, you knew that those teams, when they took a lead in the 7th or beyond, those games were OVAH. Rincon, Crain and Reyes are a bit more vulnerable than the pens of Hawkins, Romero and Guardado. And maybe part of it is the fact that the White Sox were simply not as good as they are now...so we're more confident in our results. We were just dominated by them from 01-04...we're to the point now where 6-7 feels like a huge disappointment, especially after starting 5-2.

soxinem1
08-22-2006, 05:14 PM
The question to me is how much grit/determination we'll see from our starters down the stretch. Every White Sox starter has been pitching, statistically at least, like the Twins' fourth and fifth starters.

As a Sox fan, you knew that those teams, when they took a lead in the 7th or beyond, those games were OVAH. Rincon, Crain and Reyes are a bit more vulnerable than the pens of Hawkins, Romero and Guardado. And maybe part of it is the fact that the White Sox were simply not as good as they are now...so we're more confident in our results. We were just dominated by them from 01-04...we're to the point now where 6-7 feels like a huge disappointment, especially after starting 5-2.

Current prime players in the Twins pen:

Neshek 3-0 0.84 ERA, 32K/3BB in 21 IP
Reyes 4-0 0.98 ERA, 35K/7BB in 37 IP
Crain 2-5 4.37 ERA, 48K/17BB in 60 IP
Rincon 3-1 2.45 ERA, 53K/18BB in 59 IP
Guerrier 0-0 2.98 ERA, 23K/16BB in 42 IP
Nathan 6-0 1.56 ERA, 73K/10BB in 52 IP

This is one good group. Lately, Neshek, Reyes, and Nathan have been the main rally killers in the 7-8-9 innings.

My point is that they have a 3.5 man starting staff and are a 1/2 game behind the White Sox. All they neeed is Santana, Radke, and Liriano healthy for the playoffs and they may go far. Other than the game earlier in the year when we hit Rincon hard (Sox were ahead anyway) this pen has shut us down most of the year.

And as far as grit, these guys have shown more of that, without question. That's why they have won 5 of 6 against us lately.

If Silva and one of the rookies just get the games in the sixth inning from here on out, I think they can pass the Tigers.

Mohoney
08-22-2006, 05:33 PM
Am I nuts in thinking that this will be a 3 horse race for the division?

I think Detroit's far from being a lock, with 6 to go against us (3 there, 3 here) and 4 to go (all in the Metrodome) against the Twins.

MarySwiss
08-22-2006, 05:42 PM
Am I nuts in thinking that this will be a 3 horse race for the division?

In my opinion, no. (Meaning no, you are not nuts.)

sox1970
08-22-2006, 05:52 PM
Am I nuts in thinking that this will be a 3 horse race for the division?

I think Detroit's far from being a lock, with 6 to go against us (3 there, 3 here) and 4 to go (all in the Metrodome) against the Twins.

I'm not going to call you nuts, but I think the Tigers have a firm hold on the division still. The White Sox and Twins can barely string 2 or 3 good starts together.

PennStater98r
08-22-2006, 05:53 PM
The question to me is how much grit/determination we'll see from our starters down the stretch. Every White Sox starter has been pitching, statistically at least, like the Twins' fourth and fifth starters.


:jon That comment offends me a bit - if of course I had any emotion.

:cool:

MVP
08-22-2006, 05:59 PM
I can see the Sox winning 95 games and it still not being enough to make the playoffs this year. We need them to go on that big run we've been waiting for all year. Something like 26-12 would probably get them in for sure and it wouldn't be beyond their capacity.

A. Cavatica
08-22-2006, 07:15 PM
Frankly, I'm stunned at how good the Tigers and Twins are. They may yet tail off, but it could take 97 victories to win the wild card. :o:

Chips
08-22-2006, 09:27 PM
I'd like to see us go 32-6. That would make me happy. If they win them all, I'd be even happier. Let's start tonight.

PKalltheway
08-23-2006, 12:00 AM
I can see the Sox winning 95 games and it still not being enough to make the playoffs this year.
That's a lot of wins for a team not to make the playoffs, especially with an unbalanced schedule. It can happen though. The way I see it, I think 95 wins will either win the Wild Card, or force a one game playoff. The Sox still have plenty of games left with Minnesota, so they'll be beating up on each other, reducing their win totals a bit.

slobes
08-23-2006, 12:08 AM
Current prime players in the Twins pen:

Neshek 3-0 0.84 ERA, 32K/3BB in 21 IP
Reyes 4-0 0.98 ERA, 35K/7BB in 37 IP
Crain 2-5 4.37 ERA, 48K/17BB in 60 IP
Rincon 3-1 2.45 ERA, 53K/18BB in 59 IP
Guerrier 0-0 2.98 ERA, 23K/16BB in 42 IP
Nathan 6-0 1.56 ERA, 73K/10BB in 52 IP

This is one good group. Lately, Neshek, Reyes, and Nathan have been the main rally killers in the 7-8-9 innings.

My point is that they have a 3.5 man starting staff and are a 1/2 game behind the White Sox. All they neeed is Santana, Radke, and Liriano healthy for the playoffs and they may go far. Other than the game earlier in the year when we hit Rincon hard (Sox were ahead anyway) this pen has shut us down most of the year.

And as far as grit, these guys have shown more of that, without question. That's why they have won 5 of 6 against us lately.

If Silva and one of the rookies just get the games in the sixth inning from here on out, I think they can pass the Tigers.

Wow I definitely didn't realize their bullpen was that solid. So it looks like for the Twins, it's all based on starting pitching. If they have a lead after 6 innings, chances are they will win. If not, it's a different story. On that note, lately their starting rotation has definitely proven itself. These guys are legit contenders and would have a shot in any playoff series. I don't think 95 wins will be enough. Get a couple more than that.

bryPt
08-23-2006, 09:33 AM
I am thinking 22-15 in their last 37. 95 - 67 will get them in with a game lead on Boston and Minny. Just get in baby, just get in.

What do you all think?

SoxFan78
08-23-2006, 10:03 AM
Whatever gets them a game over Minny or the Red Cubs

Britt Burns
08-23-2006, 10:20 AM
I think the Red Sox will be a non-factor the rest of the year. Their latest choke job against the yankee$ pretty well took care of that. I think it comes down to the Sox and the Twins, and while we haven't been playing great lately, I think we are going to be just fine.

PKalltheway
08-23-2006, 11:21 AM
We'll be fine, honestly. We're a MUCH better team than the Twins. The Twins are good, but come on, they're not THAT good. The only reason why they look better than they really are is because they got fat off of an inferior National League this year (they went 16-2). We did too, but remember, we were already hot GOING INTO interleague play. Being Defending World Champions helps too.:cool:

Iwritecode
08-23-2006, 11:31 AM
I think every team with 94 wins or better will be in the playoffs. Same as the past 10 years (minus the 1999 Reds)...

Flight #24
08-23-2006, 11:31 AM
The H2H matchups with the Twins will IMO decide this. Both teams have issues and problems. While the Twins are less talented, they do all the little things and execute like they always have whereas the Sox do not do that like they did last year.

I predict that the teams will be within a game of each other before factoring in head to head matchups. If the Sox can't get over their "Twins inability", they'll be watching them in October.

And by the way - I think all the other AL teams are ****-scared of the Twins making the playoffs and facing Liriano & Santana in the postseason.

cbotnyse
08-23-2006, 11:32 AM
quick question. how many games do we have left vs. Minny?

jenn2080
08-23-2006, 11:35 AM
quick question. how many games do we have left vs. Minny?


this weekend and the last 3 games of the reg season. so 6.

hawkjt
08-23-2006, 11:35 AM
six games left with the twins, 3 this weekend in chicago, 3 the last weekend of the season in the dome.

Beating the twins head to head can cure a lot of ills.

This weekend will be enormous - revenge will be ours.

cbotnyse
08-23-2006, 11:36 AM
this weekend and the last 3 games of the reg season. so 6.thanks Jenn. thats our playoff ticket right there.

Johnny Mostil
08-23-2006, 11:37 AM
quick question. how many games do we have left vs. Minny?

Six--three in Chi this weekend, then three in Min the last weekend of the year.

FWIW, here are the number of wins the AL wild card has had since 1996, the first full season with the wild card:

1996: 88 (Orioles)
1997: 96 (Yankees)
1998: 97 (Red Sox)
1999: 94 (Red Sox)
2000: 91 (Mariners)
2001: 102 (Athletics)
2002: 99 (Angels)
2003: 95 (Red Sox)
2004: 98 (Red Sox)
2005: 95 (Red Sox)

That computes to an average (and median!) of 95.5 . . .

Lip Man 1
08-23-2006, 12:30 PM
BRYPT:

I think it's a fool's game to try to figure out ANYTHING the "schzoid Sox" may or may not do.

With this bunch it's totally impossible to say with any certainty what they'll do.

They win a lot of games against good teams, they lose a ton of games to garbage teams and some nights it looks like they are just going through the motions regardless of who they are playing. Who knows?

Lip

bayzbol44
08-23-2006, 12:39 PM
96 wins gets them in. Just guessing.

Jerko
08-23-2006, 12:42 PM
Well, THIS weekend, regarding the Twins, the Sox have Javy going Friday, and then they face Santana saturday IIRC. So, it's either gonna be a quick 0-2, or we'll win the first game, HOPE to get lucky the 2nd game, and hopefully kill them on Sunday. However, we can NOT have the Twins' 8, 9, and 2 hitters batting over .600 each during the series like we did the last 2 times we played these guys. We'll see.

JB98
08-23-2006, 01:52 PM
Well, THIS weekend, regarding the Twins, the Sox have Javy going Friday, and then they face Santana saturday IIRC. So, it's either gonna be a quick 0-2, or we'll win the first game, HOPE to get lucky the 2nd game, and hopefully kill them on Sunday. However, we can NOT have the Twins' 8, 9, and 2 hitters batting over .600 each during the series like we did the last 2 times we played these guys. We'll see.

One of the biggest myths around here is this notion that the Sox are better position by position than the Twins. Right now, Minnesota has FIVE .300 hitters in its everyday lineup (Mauer, Morneau, Bartlett, Punto, Tyner). The Sox have two .300 hitters (Dye, Konerko).

The Twins have speed, and every time they get on the basepaths they capitalize on our inability to hold runners. Our pitchers need to be lights out and keep these *******s off base. That's what Garland did last Saturday, and that's the only way we can beat them.

The Minnesota pitchers seem to have a good game plan against us. They know if they keep the ball in the park, they have a good chance.

Johnny Mostil
08-23-2006, 01:58 PM
FWIW, here are the remaining games for the Sox, Twins, Tigers, and Red Sox (corrections welcome):

Sox:

@ DET (2)
MIN (3)
TB (3)
@ KC (3)
@ BOS (3)
CLE (4)
@ LAA (3)
@ OAK (3)
DET (3)
SEA (4)
@ CLE (3)
@ MIN (3)


Twins:

@ BAL (2)
@ CWS (3)
KC (3)
@ NYY (3)
@ TB (3)
DET (4)
OAK (3)
@ CLE (4)
@ BOS (3)
@ BAL (3)
KC (3)
CWS (3)


Tigers:

CWS (2)
@ CLE (3)
@ NYY (3)
LAA (3)
SEA (3)
@ MIN (4)
TEX (2)
BAL (3)
@ CWS (3)
@ BAL (1)
@ KCR (3)
TOR (3)
KC (3)

Red Sox:

@LAA (2)
@ SEA (3)
@ OAK (3)
TOR (4)
CWS (3)
KC (3)
@ BAL (3)
@ NYY (4)
MIN (3)
@ TOR (4)
TB (2)
BAL (3)

Ol' No. 2
08-23-2006, 03:37 PM
One of the biggest myths around here is this notion that the Sox are better position by position than the Twins. Right now, Minnesota has FIVE .300 hitters in its everyday lineup (Mauer, Morneau, Bartlett, Punto, Tyner). The Sox have two .300 hitters (Dye, Konerko).

The Twins have speed, and every time they get on the basepaths they capitalize on our inability to hold runners. Our pitchers need to be lights out and keep these *******s off base. That's what Garland did last Saturday, and that's the only way we can beat them.

The Minnesota pitchers seem to have a good game plan against us. They know if they keep the ball in the park, they have a good chance.AJ is also over .300, so that's three. But the differential is only because of the arbitrary .300 division, anyway. If I pick .290, then both teams have 5 hitters over that level. (Crede and Thome are both over that, while the Twins have no one in that range.)