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View Full Version : What is the likelihood of Zito in a Sox uniform in '07?


soxyess
08-13-2006, 10:50 AM
My understanding is that we have a team option on Buehrle for '07 at around 9.5 mil. I can see a scenerio of us not signing MB and going after Zito. He is a much more consistant lefty with one of the nastiest curves from the left side that you will find. Ive been reading that Zito's agent is Boras, but just recently I read an article of all the free agent pitchers and their agents, and it indicated that Zito's agent is Arn Tellom who is close to JR. What is everyone's take on this scenerio?

beckett21
08-13-2006, 11:01 AM
Zito switched from Tellem to Boras this season IIRC.

Not going to happen.

Jjav829
08-13-2006, 11:03 AM
Not happening. Zito is the top free agent pitcher available. All the teams with money to burn and a need for starting pitching will be pursuing him, which will drive the price up way past what we would/should pay. If anything, this would be a good time to take advantage of Buehrle's struggles and lock him up for a few years at a cheaper price than we would pay after the 2007 season.

Brian26
08-13-2006, 11:05 AM
Zito's going to break the bank this winter anyway. Not a chance that the Sox can win a bidding war with some of the other teams involved.

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 11:10 AM
I don't like taking $12-15 million per year chances on a pitcher with a spotty track record the last 2-3 years and one who pitches without a real solid fastball.

It's playing with fire.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 11:22 AM
My understanding is that we have a team option on Buehrle for '07 at around 9.5 mil. I can see a scenerio of us not signing MB and going after Zito. He is a much more consistant lefty with one of the nastiest curves from the left side that you will find. Ive been reading that Zito's agent is Boras, but just recently I read an article of all the free agent pitchers and their agents, and it indicated that Zito's agent is Arn Tellom who is close to JR. What is everyone's take on this scenerio?Not in a million years.

Save McCuddy's
08-13-2006, 11:24 AM
Zito will be a Dodger or a Yankee.

SOXSINCE'70
08-13-2006, 11:27 AM
There's no way Barry Zito will be a member of the White Sox.
He's going to break the bank of some team,as many before me have
mentioned.And since Brandon McCarthy WILL be in the starting rotation
in 2007, why would you want Zito??

gbergman
08-13-2006, 11:30 AM
Zito will be a Dodger or a Yankee.
Nailed it right on the head.

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 11:33 AM
Well, the argument is that he's replacing Buehrle I guess.

Except at $3-4 million per year more.

Yanks will have Wang, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano (two more years, if healthy)...are Mussina, Randy Johnson and Lidle FA's this offseason?

It's not out of the realm of possibility that either Mussina or the Big Unit would retire coming off a World Series win...although Moose has been great this year and Johnson still has quite a bit left, probably another year or two.

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 11:35 AM
It will be an interesting offseason in SF as well.

They could lose their entire outfield, Schmidt, etc. Magowan likes to spend money, and I could see him trying to make a splash by stealing the ace of the team across the Bay.

Supposedly, Schmidt wants to go to Seattle.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 11:37 AM
Well, the argument is that he's replacing Buehrle I guess.

Except at $3-4 million per year more.

Yanks will have Wang, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano (two more years, if healthy)...are Mussina, Randy Johnson and Lidle FA's this offseason?

It's not out of the realm of possibility that either Mussina or the Big Unit would retire coming off a World Series win...although Moose has been great this year and Johnson still has quite a bit left, probably another year or two.The Yankees have historically stockpiled more than 5 starters. Given their injury history, they do it with good reason. Even when they weren't having injury problems, they used to cycle starters through the DL for pretty minor things, just to give them a break during the season and keep them fresh for the post-season. Not a bad strategy if you can afford it.

FarWestChicago
08-13-2006, 12:07 PM
It's playing with fire.:smokin: Yes, Zito plays with fire. :redneck

santo=dorf
08-13-2006, 12:10 PM
http://www.geektimes.com/michael/site/archive/2005/02/images/2005-02-john-vernon.jpg
"Zero, point, zero."

monkeypants
08-13-2006, 12:12 PM
About as much likelihood of when Horace Grant was asked if he was going to resign with the Bulls in his first year of free agency.

"Slim to none. And slim just walked out the door."

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a224/sarah369/horace_grant_small.jpg

fquaye149
08-13-2006, 12:14 PM
I guarantee we are a member of the bidding war for Zito. I know Kenny will make a play for him. BUT like many have mentioned

a.) Boras and KW don't have a good relationship

b.) his price will be much higher than his relative value.

I'd say the chances are slim to none of him actually being on the Sox

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 12:22 PM
In the same way were part of the bidding war for Magglio Ordonez or Alex Rodriguez.

getonbckthr
08-13-2006, 12:37 PM
BJays or Mets for Zito. Maybe even Anaheim.

jabrch
08-13-2006, 03:46 PM
Zito is a flyball pitcher. He's not the type of guy I'd give a 5 year, 15mm contract to, pitching in USCF. I know he wants to stay on the west coast, but he might actually end up a Cub. I think he'd be a better fit for them than for us. They need a starter pretty damn bad given the projected state of their rotation. They also have a load of money to spend next year, and they will be looking to make a splash this offseason.

I'd pass on him, but only because of the cost/length of his deal. He's still a fantastic pitcher. Next year, assuming Brandon makes the rotation, we will have to unload a starting pitcher, not add one.

russ99
08-13-2006, 04:50 PM
Zito will be a Dodger or a Yankee.

There's no way the Sox, with all those pitchers under contract, blow the pitching staff up and throw cash at Boras.

Yanks and Dodgers are the favorites - but possibly the Angels, Mets or Red Sox could go after him. No one else can or will bid up to that level.

Cubs fans, dream on! :rolleyes: The Cubs won't ever break the bank for a player as long as the Trib runs things.

Honestly, is he really that good? His contract could be a A-Rod Ranger-like budget kiss of death for a team not named "Yankees".

ZombieRob
08-13-2006, 05:01 PM
Wouldn't you rather have Pettite then Zito?

jabrch
08-13-2006, 05:13 PM
Wouldn't you rather have Pettite then Zito?

I don't think I'd spend the money that either of them are going to command.

Buehrle
Contreras
Garland
Vazquez
Garcia
Mac

As is, one of Garland/Vazquez/Garcia is going to have to go to make room for BM. No reason to move one, and spend 4/60 on Zito or Pettite, neither of whom is what they were a few years ago.

No thanks - let's spend the money on SS, LF or CF where we can make some improvments.

ilsox7
08-13-2006, 05:16 PM
I don't think I'd spend the money that either of them are going to command.

Buehrle
Contreras
Garland
Vazquez
Garcia
Mac

As is, one of Garland/Vazquez/Garcia is going to have to go to make room for BM. No reason to move one, and spend 4/60 on Zito or Pettite, neither of whom is what they were a few years ago.

No thanks - let's spend the money on SS, LF or CF where we can make some improvments.

Garland isn't going anywhere. It will most likely be Garcia, with a chance it's Mark or Javy. Kenny is going to build this staff around Brandon, Jose, and Garland for the next few years.

SOXSINCE'70
08-13-2006, 05:44 PM
http://www.geektimes.com/michael/site/archive/2005/02/images/2005-02-john-vernon.jpg
"Zero, point, zero."

:roflmao: :roflmao:

ZombieRob
08-13-2006, 05:46 PM
The shame of it is ,The Sox won't get the value for Garcia knowing that the Sox "have" to make room ,They will most likely get lowballed.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 06:48 PM
The shame of it is ,The Sox won't get the value for Garcia knowing that the Sox "have" to make room ,They will most likely get lowballed.If there were to be only one team that wanted him, that might be the case. But as long as there are several teams bidding, the price will be determined by what the alternatives might be, and there isn't much in the way of FA pitching this winter.

gobears1987
08-13-2006, 07:14 PM
Zito's going to break the bank this winter anyway. Not a chance that the Sox can win a bidding war with some of the other teams involved.Oh, the Sox CAN win the bidding war. The things is that we don't want to win it. There is no way we should pay as much as he will go for on the market. Let's just lock up Buehrle to a long term deal. I know he has struggled this year, but didn't he have a similar stretch in 03?

gobears1987
08-13-2006, 07:16 PM
If there were to be only one team that wanted him, that might be the case. But as long as there are several teams bidding, the price will be determined by what the alternatives might be, and there isn't much in the way of FA pitching this winter.Which means we can unload Garcia for way more than he is worth. We have Garland and Contreras locked up long term. (glad Garland has proven me wrong about his performance). Buehrle should be locked up long term this off season. McCarthy will move into the rotation and Vazquez seems to finally be benefiting from the wisdom of Don Cooper.

Palehose Pete
08-13-2006, 07:18 PM
Not happening. Zito is the top free agent pitcher available. All the teams with money to burn and a need for starting pitching will be pursuing him, which will drive the price up way past what we would/should pay. If anything, this would be a good time to take advantage of Buehrle's struggles and lock him up for a few years at a cheaper price than we would pay after the 2007 season.


Wisdom. Let us be attentive.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 07:23 PM
Which means we can unload Garcia for way more than he is worth. We have Garland and Contreras locked up long term. (glad Garland has proven me wrong about his performance). Buehrle should be locked up long term this off season. McCarthy will move into the rotation and Vazquez seems to finally be benefiting from the wisdom of Don Cooper.Kenny's history is of making a deal with the team to get the player he really wants, even if he doesn't get maximum value for the guys he's trading. I'll be surprised if he doesn't do the same this winter. Part of the mid-season negotiating process is to feel out trades for the following winter. I'd even bet he knows right now who he wants and has a pretty good idea what it's going to take to get him.

Save McCuddy's
08-13-2006, 08:57 PM
Kenny's history is of making a deal with the team to get the player he really wants, even if he doesn't get maximum value for the guys he's trading. I'll be surprised if he doesn't do the same this winter. Part of the mid-season negotiating process is to feel out trades for the following winter. I'd even bet he knows right now who he wants and has a pretty good idea what it's going to take to get him.

Who do you think he's targeting -- or is that the subject of another thread?

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 09:05 PM
Who do you think he's targeting -- or is that the subject of another thread?I don't know. You know how Kenny is, though. Once he targets a player he usually doesn't give up until he gets him. I'm sure he sees what we all see. Where can you get a significant upgrade? SS and LF. Upgrading in LF means he needs to find another leadoff hitter, which isn't easy, so I'd say he's more likely to work on a SS. If he was really after Tejada last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make another run at him. The O's could use another starter. Package Garcia and Uribe and maybe they could get it done.

The other alternative is to get a SS who can lead off and move Fields to LF, but I don't see any likely candidates that he could get and having Anderson and a rookie in LF is awfully risky.

slavko
08-13-2006, 09:10 PM
Oh, the Sox CAN win the bidding war. The things is that we don't want to win it. There is no way we should pay as much as he will go for on the market. Let's just lock up Buehrle to a long term deal. I know he has struggled this year, but didn't he have a similar stretch in 03?

Exactly. We signed him to his current contract in the latter part of the '03 season after he had gotten straightened out. Buy low, sell high....

Zisk77
08-13-2006, 09:12 PM
My understanding is that we have a team option on Buehrle for '07 at around 9.5 mil. I can see a scenerio of us not signing MB and going after Zito. He is a much more consistant lefty with one of the nastiest curves from the left side that you will find. Ive been reading that Zito's agent is Boras, but just recently I read an article of all the free agent pitchers and their agents, and it indicated that Zito's agent is Arn Tellom who is close to JR. What is everyone's take on this scenerio?

As someone who has had Zito for 2 years in his fantasy league, Zito is not more consistent than MB. In fact Zito really struggled for much of last year. Zito simply is not worth the money that will be thrown at him. I think Garcia will be traded to the national league with Bmac entering the starting rotation.

Save McCuddy's
08-13-2006, 09:24 PM
I don't know. You know how Kenny is, though. Once he targets a player he usually doesn't give up until he gets him. I'm sure he sees what we all see. Where can you get a significant upgrade? SS and LF. Upgrading in LF means he needs to find another leadoff hitter, which isn't easy, so I'd say he's more likely to work on a SS. If he was really after Tejada last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make another run at him. The O's could use another starter. Package Garcia and Uribe and maybe they could get it done.

The other alternative is to get a SS who can lead off and move Fields to LF, but I don't see any likely candidates that he could get and having Anderson and a rookie in LF is awfully risky.

Laying out the next 1 yr. and 3yr. windows for this club is a bit of a cunundrum right now. I'm glad Kenny and Rick are the guys doing the really heavy scheming and I'm drinking beer in the parking lot 10 or 12 nights a summer.

For one thing, you could come at '07 and potentially '08 with Pods and Uribe still on the squad. Provided that the team continues to hit 100 plus homers with its 3-4-5 guys with combined OBP's like they have, you can win championships with Uribe's 15 - 20 Hr's in the 8 hole and Pods's wildly erratic play. We've proven that -- and will twice if I may say.

On the other hand, the much discussed Tejada must be drifting through Kenny's daydreams. And we all know what that can lead to. Tejada will be 31 next year and significantly more expensive than Uribe and Pods combined. That acquisition will lead to consequences in payroll to be felt somewhere else. A Tejada deal may spell certain doom for extending Dye -- not that the swap might not be worthy.

These are the dilemnas of champions. Sure is sweet to have them!

Tragg
08-13-2006, 09:37 PM
L
On the other hand, the much discussed Tejada must be drifting through Kenny's daydreams. And we all know what that can lead to. Tejada will be 31 next year and significantly more expensive than Uribe and Pods combined. That acquisition will lead to consequences in payroll to be felt somewhere else. A Tejada deal may spell certain doom for extending Dye -- not that the swap might not be worthy.

These are the dilemnas of champions. Sure is sweet to have them! I'm no Tejada fan. BUT what does he make..12 mill? Uribe's salary is escalating past $5 mill. Take Tejada and a rookie to replace Uribe and Pods and you increase 5 or 6 mill. Plus to get TEjada, you'd have to trade Garcia or someone as well (to be replaced by McCarthy) and the Sox reduce payroll all of a sudden.
REgardless, it's not that huge of a net salary increase.
Now, I hope we don't do it and I really hope we don't if it involves piling on more talent than just Uribe and Garcia.

It costs so much to find a good hitting shortstop (and Uribe, with his power, isn't bad) that I am almost willing to just take a great fielder, even if he can't hit at all; or maybe even someone who can hit but can't field (although I'm leery).

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 09:41 PM
The problem is that the Orioles already had chances to get Oswalt and Er. Santana and Baltimore turned down all of those options.

No way any objective observer would want Garcia over any of those guys. Which means you have to trade McCarthy, and that's not doable from a payroll standpoint...to keep all those pitchers together again, unless we got to the WS and were guaranteed to have the revenue to support it.

History has shown high OBP/stolen base players are much cheaper to acquire than power-hitting shortstops.

And I don't like downgrading the infield defensively either.

Angelos is all about image, just like Disney when they ran the Angels. What message does it send to your fanbase to trade your best player for Uribe and a pitcher on the downside. It would be one thing if it was McCarthy and he would be cheap for them and they got Uribe, but Garcia and Uribe, no way Angelos would go for that. The Orioles are two or three pitchers away...you don't go out and get Garcia unless you can realistically contend for the playoffs.

areilly
08-13-2006, 09:42 PM
Where's that still from the Red Roof Inn commercial when I need it?

"Chances of Zito coming to the Sox are...remote.

AHAHA-HA-HAHA-HA!!!"

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 09:49 PM
Laying out the next 1 yr. and 3yr. windows for this club is a bit of a cunundrum right now. I'm glad Kenny and Rick are the guys doing the really heavy scheming and I'm drinking beer in the parking lot 10 or 12 nights a summer.

For one thing, you could come at '07 and potentially '08 with Pods and Uribe still on the squad. Provided that the team continues to hit 100 plus homers with its 3-4-5 guys with combined OBP's like they have, you can win championships with Uribe's 15 - 20 Hr's in the 8 hole and Pods's wildly erratic play. We've proven that -- and will twice if I may say.

On the other hand, the much discussed Tejada must be drifting through Kenny's daydreams. And we all know what that can lead to. Tejada will be 31 next year and significantly more expensive than Uribe and Pods combined. That acquisition will lead to consequences in payroll to be felt somewhere else. A Tejada deal may spell certain doom for extending Dye -- not that the swap might not be worthy.

These are the dilemnas of champions. Sure is sweet to have them!You have to improve your team every year because the competition will be. One of the reasons for getting FOB into the rotation is to free up money for just this kind of move (which, coming back to the original subject of this thread, is why Zito is not destined for the Sox). Subtracting Freddy's salary makes Tejada a lot more affordable, and if they toss in a prospect, they might even get some cash back from the O's. They're trying Sweeney out at leadoff, so they're obviously looking at alternatives to Podsednik, although Sweeney leading off for the Sox is certainly not going to happen next year.

One thing you can take to the bank - Kenny is not going to stand still in the off-season. And he's got Plan A, Plan B and probably Plan C all on his famous white board. But we're going to have to wait to find out what they are.

caulfield12
08-13-2006, 09:55 PM
Sweeney has something like 31 walks in 360 some ab's....would like to see him getting 10% walks at least.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 09:58 PM
The problem is that the Orioles already had chances to get Oswalt and Er. Santana and Baltimore turned down all of those options.

No way any objective observer would want Garcia over any of those guys. Which means you have to trade McCarthy, and that's not doable from a payroll standpoint...to keep all those pitchers together again, unless we got to the WS and were guaranteed to have the revenue to support it.

History has shown high OBP/stolen base players are much cheaper to acquire than power-hitting shortstops.

And I don't like downgrading the infield defensively either.

Angelos is all about image, just like Disney when they ran the Angels. What message does it send to your fanbase to trade your best player for Uribe and a pitcher on the downside. It would be one thing if it was McCarthy and he would be cheap for them and they got Uribe, but Garcia and Uribe, no way Angelos would go for that. The Orioles are two or three pitchers away...you don't go out and get Garcia unless you can realistically contend for the playoffs.But you don't know all the details of those trades, so there's no way of knowing how an offer of Garcia and Uribe would stack up. And secondly, what didn't fly during the season might well fly in the off-season if Tejada starts grumbling again. If they decide they want to trade Tejada, it will come down to who makes the best offer at the time. There aren't that many teams who need a SS and who also could take on that contract. I wouldn't assume Kenny can't pull it off.

Tragg
08-13-2006, 10:07 PM
Sweeney has something like 31 walks in 360 some ab's....would like to see him getting 10% walks at least. And he has no power; and he's a rookie. You can't go into a season with that situation as your lead-off hitter.
It's going to be really hard to replace Pods, unless we get lead-off from another position.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 10:22 PM
And he has no power; and he's a rookie. You can't go into a season with that situation as your lead-off hitter.
It's going to be really hard to replace Pods, unless we get lead-off from another position.Sweeney's still young, so he may yet develop some power. And anyway, who cares if he has power if you're going to use him to lead off? Trying him at leadoff in Charlotte is obviously just an experiment, but to me it shows that they're thinking about replacement leadoff hitters into 2008 and later.

Tragg
08-13-2006, 10:28 PM
Sweeney's still young, so he may yet develop some power. And anyway, who cares if he has power if you're going to use him to lead off? Trying him at leadoff in Charlotte is obviously just an experiment, but to me it shows that they're thinking about replacement leadoff hitters into 2008 and later.A little power is a nice lagniappe...even nicer when your walk rate is below 10%.

He may develop more power - he needs to...which is why he probably should stay in the minors to develop it.

Ol' No. 2
08-13-2006, 10:37 PM
A little power is a nice lagniappe...even nicer when your walk rate is below 10%.

He may develop more power - he needs to...which is why he probably should stay in the minors to develop it.If he's going to be a successful leadoff hitter, he's going to have to get that walk rate up. If he does, the power is just a bonus. If he doesn't it won't matter how much power he has - he's not going to be a good leadoff hitter. He's just 21 years old. His body is still developing. This has the flavor of an experiment.

spiffie
08-13-2006, 11:11 PM
Just something to throw out in terms of changing up the pitching rotation...Ship off Garcia and Vazquez this offseason for prospects to restock the farm system. Go hard after Zito and move him and McCarthy into the rotation. Even if you assume some sort of extension for Buerhle, the rotation would be slightly cheaper then next year than this year. If Fields is the player everyone says he is, perhaps he takes over LF, dump off Uribe and Pods, go with Cintron and Fields, and use the savings towards a Crede extension, instead of using Cintron, throw the extra few million towards a SS upgrade. I know it's not likely to happen but its one way to work it that would be cost-neutral and IMO be an upgrade of the rotation. End up with
Contreras
Zito
Buehrle
Garland
McCarthy

instead of
Contreras
Buehrle
Garland
Vazquez
McCarthy

Ol' No. 2
08-14-2006, 01:05 PM
Just something to throw out in terms of changing up the pitching rotation...Ship off Garcia and Vazquez this offseason for prospects to restock the farm system. Go hard after Zito and move him and McCarthy into the rotation. Even if you assume some sort of extension for Buerhle, the rotation would be slightly cheaper then next year than this year. If Fields is the player everyone says he is, perhaps he takes over LF, dump off Uribe and Pods, go with Cintron and Fields, and use the savings towards a Crede extension, instead of using Cintron, throw the extra few million towards a SS upgrade. I know it's not likely to happen but its one way to work it that would be cost-neutral and IMO be an upgrade of the rotation. End up with
Contreras
Zito
Buehrle
Garland
McCarthy

instead of
Contreras
Buehrle
Garland
Vazquez
McCarthySounds like a 90-win team to me.

1. Zito is an extreme flyball pitcher and not a good fit for the Sox. And he'd cost a fortune because you'd be bidding against teams with very deep pockets.

2. Cintron is not an everyday SS. He does well when he can be played in favorable situations, but playing everyday his weaknesses would be exposed.

3. You have no leadoff hitter.

4. You have a rookie in LF and Anderson in CF. Are you willing to gamble that Anderson won't have a repeat of 2006? What if both of them hit .200? VERY risky.

When you're a 90-win team and need to get to 100 wins, you gamble. When you're already a 100 win team, you don't.

wdelaney72
08-14-2006, 01:17 PM
Not to mention, Vazquez's value isn't at an all time high. I don't think he'll be the one dealt, but a lot o that depends on how he pitches down the stretch.

Kenny tends to find guys before they're a FA. Zito will be a FA and will be highly overpaid by a team like the Yankees, Toronto, Mets, or Boston. The Cubs will act like their interested, but will low-ball him or find a way to fall short. As has been said already, Zito is not a good fit for the Sox and will not be coming here.

russ99
08-14-2006, 02:22 PM
Is Podsednik a free agent this offseason?

If not, I don't see why the Sox would be in such a hurry to replace him. I can see Kenny taking a chance that a winter off (with no surgeries) and a full spring training will get him back into early 2005 shape.

Plus he's relatively cheap for an outfielder, still is a decent leadoff man despite his slumps this season, and the Sox have no one ready to step in inside the system to replace him. What's the alternative, Juan Pierre's overbloated contract? No thanks.

Zito's still not coming here! :tongue:

Ol' No. 2
08-14-2006, 02:27 PM
Is Podsednik a free agent this offseason?

If not, I don't see why the Sox would be in such a hurry to replace him. I can see Kenny taking a chance that a winter off (with no surgeries) and a full spring training will get him back into early 2005 shape.

Plus he's relatively cheap for an outfielder, still is a decent leadoff man despite his slumps this season, and the Sox have no one ready to step in inside the system to replace him. What's the alternative, Juan Pierre's overbloated contract? No thanks.

Zito's still not coming here! :tongue:He won't be a FA until after 2008. He is arbitration-eligible for the next two years. He's making $1.975M in 2006.

russ99
08-14-2006, 02:36 PM
He won't be a FA until after 2008. He is arbitration-eligible for the next two years. He's making $1.975M in 2006.

Considering his lower numbers this year, the arbitration (if it goes that far) won't break the bank. If the Sox offer $2.25M, I'd grab it if I were Scott.

spiffie
08-14-2006, 02:39 PM
Sounds like a 90-win team to me.

1. Zito is an extreme flyball pitcher and not a good fit for the Sox. And he'd cost a fortune because you'd be bidding against teams with very deep pockets.

2. Cintron is not an everyday SS. He does well when he can be played in favorable situations, but playing everyday his weaknesses would be exposed.

3. You have no leadoff hitter.

4. You have a rookie in LF and Anderson in CF. Are you willing to gamble that Anderson won't have a repeat of 2006? What if both of them hit .200? VERY risky.

When you're a 90-win team and need to get to 100 wins, you gamble. When you're already a 100 win team, you don't.
1. My figuring assumes that he'd be a 5/75 guy. Figuring the Sox are paying 19.5 million approximately on Garcia and Vazquez this year, the cost of a Zito/McCarthy combo would figure to be about 3-4 million less than that. If he gets beyond that, then no, I'd pass. If the Yankees want to pay him 6/90 or 5/85 or something insane like that, let them go for it.

While I agree about the flyball park being a concern, in the admittedly small sample of games played against the Sox at USCF he has put up a very respectable 2.94 ERA, giving up 2 HR in 33.2 innings. While I would imagine that would go up some if he pitched there regularly, it would have to have a quite dramatic jump to do anything. And considering those starts have come against very strong power lineups that the Sox have put out there, I'd say that jump is unlikely to be very drastic. If he could handle lineups with Thomas, Ordonez, Lee, Valentin, Konerko, Crede, Thome, Everett, etc. I'm sure his numbers would look good when he gets some home games against KC, BAL, TB, etc.

2. In three years as a nearly everyday player in Arizona, Cintron put up the following line 283/296/418/714. In his time in Chicago Uribe has put up 262/266/457/723. You get a bit more power with Uribe, and an ability to make more great plays, but you also get much longer slumps and many more mental lapses. For every amazing diving stop, there's going to weekend like this one where he seemed kind of out of it at SS. I'm not seeing that much of a drop-off.

3. I put Iguchi at leadoff. But then I don't put a whole lot of value on the idea that the guy who is guaranteed one leadoff at-bat per game is that essential, or needs to be some sort of special player. I'll take Iguchi and his OBP which is 15 points higher than Pods right now at #1. This of course is assuming no other moves are made. Considering that under this idea we would get a few more prospects, and be netting something around 12 million total back from current payroll, there would be flexibility to perhaps go out and get a leadoff man more akin to the prototypical #1 hitter. This idea would also perhaps allow #4 to be made an irrelevant issue.

4. However, if #4 should happen, I am willing to take that chance. You mention a repeat of 2006. Personally, if anything were to repeat, I would say it's the Anderson hitting .275 since the all-star break, since that is much more in line with the Brian Anderson he's been his entire pro career. And considering that people seemed secure enough in Josh Fields to scoff when the idea of trading him for people like Soriano or Abreu were mentioned, I'd say he damn well should be able to produce, otherwise what the hell were we saving him for? As I said, in this there would be funds available to upgrade a veteran LF, but if that weren't to happen, I would not be uncomfortable with this.

As for being a 90-win team, I fail to see this, unless you assume that this year's team is a 90-win team. Because we already have a .200 hitter. We have another hitter who spent more than half the season as a sub-.240 hitter. We entered the season with a single A pitcher in our bullpen. And we have a #5 starter with an ERA over 5. I suspect that McCarthy would be able to closely match that level of performance if not exceed it, unless everyone from Kenny Williams on down has grossly overvalued his skill level. In this scenario you have a pitching staff stronger than this year (unless you would not consider Zito a better pitcher than any of our other 4 pitchers), CF likely stronger than it was starting this year simply due to Anderson's natural progression which we are already seeing this season, a SS position with minimal to no downgrade, and money available to make some moves with and some extra prospects to sweeten trades for those moves if need be.

I doubt any of this will happen. More likely we will simply trade Garcia somewhere, pray Vazquez finds consistency, and go into next year with basically the same lineup. Which is not a bad thing. Or most likely Williams will do something none of us could imagine right now. But this is more interesting to me to ponder than working, so there you go.

Ol' No. 2
08-14-2006, 02:41 PM
Considering his lower numbers this year, the arbitration (if it goes that far) won't break the bank. If the Sox offer $2.25M, I'd grab it if I were Scott.Nobody likes going to arbitration. The Sox haven't had a player go to arbitration since Keith Foulke. They'll most likely agree on a contract. If I had to guess, I'd say 2 years with an option on a third, starting at about $2.5M and going up to $5M in the option year.

Ol' No. 2
08-14-2006, 03:02 PM
1. My figuring assumes that he'd be a 5/75 guy. Figuring the Sox are paying 19.5 million approximately on Garcia and Vazquez this year, the cost of a Zito/McCarthy combo would figure to be about 3-4 million less than that. If he gets beyond that, then no, I'd pass. If the Yankees want to pay him 6/90 or 5/85 or something insane like that, let them go for it.

While I agree about the flyball park being a concern, in the admittedly small sample of games played against the Sox at USCF he has put up a very respectable 2.94 ERA, giving up 2 HR in 33.2 innings. While I would imagine that would go up some if he pitched there regularly, it would have to have a quite dramatic jump to do anything. And considering those starts have come against very strong power lineups that the Sox have put out there, I'd say that jump is unlikely to be very drastic. If he could handle lineups with Thomas, Ordonez, Lee, Valentin, Konerko, Crede, Thome, Everett, etc. I'm sure his numbers would look good when he gets some home games against KC, BAL, TB, etc.

2. In three years as a nearly everyday player in Arizona, Cintron put up the following line 283/296/418/714. In his time in Chicago Uribe has put up 262/266/457/723. You get a bit more power with Uribe, and an ability to make more great plays, but you also get much longer slumps and many more mental lapses. For every amazing diving stop, there's going to weekend like this one where he seemed kind of out of it at SS. I'm not seeing that much of a drop-off.

3. I put Iguchi at leadoff. But then I don't put a whole lot of value on the idea that the guy who is guaranteed one leadoff at-bat per game is that essential, or needs to be some sort of special player. I'll take Iguchi and his OBP which is 15 points higher than Pods right now at #1. This of course is assuming no other moves are made. Considering that under this idea we would get a few more prospects, and be netting something around 12 million total back from current payroll, there would be flexibility to perhaps go out and get a leadoff man more akin to the prototypical #1 hitter. This idea would also perhaps allow #4 to be made an irrelevant issue.

4. However, if #4 should happen, I am willing to take that chance. You mention a repeat of 2006. Personally, if anything were to repeat, I would say it's the Anderson hitting .275 since the all-star break, since that is much more in line with the Brian Anderson he's been his entire pro career. And considering that people seemed secure enough in Josh Fields to scoff when the idea of trading him for people like Soriano or Abreu were mentioned, I'd say he damn well should be able to produce, otherwise what the hell were we saving him for? As I said, in this there would be funds available to upgrade a veteran LF, but if that weren't to happen, I would not be uncomfortable with this.

As for being a 90-win team, I fail to see this, unless you assume that this year's team is a 90-win team. Because we already have a .200 hitter. We have another hitter who spent more than half the season as a sub-.240 hitter. We entered the season with a single A pitcher in our bullpen. And we have a #5 starter with an ERA over 5. I suspect that McCarthy would be able to closely match that level of performance if not exceed it, unless everyone from Kenny Williams on down has grossly overvalued his skill level. In this scenario you have a pitching staff stronger than this year (unless you would not consider Zito a better pitcher than any of our other 4 pitchers), CF likely stronger than it was starting this year simply due to Anderson's natural progression which we are already seeing this season, a SS position with minimal to no downgrade, and money available to make some moves with and some extra prospects to sweeten trades for those moves if need be.

I doubt any of this will happen. More likely we will simply trade Garcia somewhere, pray Vazquez finds consistency, and go into next year with basically the same lineup. Which is not a bad thing. Or most likely Williams will do something none of us could imagine right now. But this is more interesting to me to ponder than working, so there you go.1. The point of getting rid of Garcia or Vazquez and putting McCarthy in the rotation is to free up money for other uses. The savings amounts to about $10M a year. You've just eaten almost all the savings on Barry Zito. No way I'd pay him 5/75. No way I'd sign a pitcher to a 5-year deal of any kind. The insurance on that contract would be very expensive, if you could get it at all.

2. I just don't see Cintron as an everyday player. Neither does Ozzie. Be careful translating numbers in Arizona to numbers playing for the White Sox. His good games this year have come mostly against inexperienced pitching. He'd have a lot harder time facing top-tier pitchers every day. In four games last week against LAA and NYY he was 2 for 16.

3. The point of a leadoff hitter is not that he's going to actually lead off every inning, but that you have two hitters ahead of your 3-4-5 hitters who can get on base and into scoring position. In 2004 the WS were first in the league in BA with RISP, and last in AB with RISP. That lead directly to the feast-or-famine offense.

4. I'm willing to take the risk that Anderson will not hit above the low .200's next year. I'm willing to take the risk that a rookie LF will not hit above the low .200's next year. I'm not willing to risk both at the same time.

lakeviewsoxfan
08-14-2006, 03:05 PM
That chances of that happening are 0.0

Foulke You
08-14-2006, 03:07 PM
Zito will be a Dodger or a Yankee.
I could see Boston making a play for Zito as well considering their rotation woes this year. David Wells is fat, injured and old, Clement is injury prone and out indefinitely (could be trade bait next year), and Wakefield is up there in age too. You know the Red Sox have the deep pocket books and they won't let him waltz into New York without a fight. I could see the Dodgers or Cubs being other possibilities but the Cubs are probably not likely since Hendry/MacPhail will back out when the big boys (Bos, NYY) start a bidding war. Of course, if the White Sox go deep in the playoffs again this year, it could force their hand to make a "big splash" on the North Side.

spiffie
08-14-2006, 03:36 PM
1. The point of getting rid of Garcia or Vazquez and putting McCarthy in the rotation is to free up money for other uses. The savings amounts to about $10M a year. You've just eaten almost all the savings on Barry Zito. No way I'd pay him 5/75. No way I'd sign a pitcher to a 5-year deal of any kind. The insurance on that contract would be very expensive, if you could get it at all.

2. I just don't see Cintron as an everyday player. Neither does Ozzie. Be careful translating numbers in Arizona to numbers playing for the White Sox. His good games this year have come mostly against inexperienced pitching. He'd have a lot harder time facing top-tier pitchers every day. In four games last week against LAA and NYY he was 2 for 16.

3. The point of a leadoff hitter is not that he's going to actually lead off every inning, but that you have two hitters ahead of your 3-4-5 hitters who can get on base and into scoring position. In 2004 the WS were first in the league in BA with RISP, and last in AB with RISP. That lead directly to the feast-or-famine offense.

4. I'm willing to take the risk that Anderson will not hit above the low .200's next year. I'm willing to take the risk that a rookie LF will not hit above the low .200's next year. I'm not willing to risk both at the same time.
1. Vazquez - 10 mm (assuming the AZ money was split over 2 years) Garcia - 10mm Uribe - 4.15mm Pods (est.) 2.5mm. So we'd be subtracting about 27 million in 2007 obligations and adding $15 million. That's still $12 million in flexibility. Add into that a few other guys who will likely be replaced from within and cheaper (Riske - this year 1.8mm, Hermanson, 3.5mm) and you're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million to spend after adding Zito. I don't care as much for 5 year deals for pitchers either, but to me it's like the Bulls signing Ben Wallace. Yes, they might hate that contract for a year at the end, but so be it. If in 2011 we have to suffer for one year with an albatross deal, I can live with that. Obviously JR might disagree though. Of course there's also the chance he pitches well, and that $15 million isn't that bad looking in 2011, at least not so bad we couldn't move him if need be at that point.

2. I would say that while the NL-to-AL consideration has to apply, there has to also be some consideration that playing in USCF increases power numbers. I mean, Uribe has hit for more power here than he did in Colorado, which is saying something. As for the idea of good teams being trouble for Cintron, since we're going to accept here small sample sizes as relevant, the team in baseball with by far the best team ERA right now is Detroit. Cintron is hitting .419 against them, with an OPS of 1.212.

Also, his stats this year are pretty much in line with his career numbers. Oh, and Uribe this year, against DET is hitting .238, against LAA .235, against NYY he's hitting .111. His best games this year have been against Jason Johnson (7/29), Rodrigo Lopez (7/4), John Koronka (7/22), Sean Marshall (6/30), Scott Kazmir (5/16), Carlos Silva (5/14), Carlos Silva (4/23), and Jeremy Affeldt (4/7). He has been shut down in starts against top pitchers like Santana or Halladay (combined 0-10 in games they start).

3. Iguchi gets on base more than Podsednik. And he brings himself in 15-20 times per year without depending on the guys behind him to do so, which to me negates the stolen base advantage.

4. Fair enough on this point. I disagree. In my little vision, they wouldn't both be playing, since the 12-15 million freed up could go towards a veteran OF who would negate this concern. But I'd take that chance, especially with what I feel is a bolstered pitching staff.

Ol' No. 2
08-14-2006, 04:04 PM
1. Vazquez - 10 mm (assuming the AZ money was split over 2 years) Garcia - 10mm Uribe - 4.15mm Pods (est.) 2.5mm. So we'd be subtracting about 27 million in 2007 obligations and adding $15 million. That's still $12 million in flexibility. Add into that a few other guys who will likely be replaced from within and cheaper (Riske - this year 1.8mm, Hermanson, 3.5mm) and you're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million to spend after adding Zito. I don't care as much for 5 year deals for pitchers either, but to me it's like the Bulls signing Ben Wallace. Yes, they might hate that contract for a year at the end, but so be it. If in 2011 we have to suffer for one year with an albatross deal, I can live with that. Obviously JR might disagree though. Of course there's also the chance he pitches well, and that $15 million isn't that bad looking in 2011, at least not so bad we couldn't move him if need be at that point.

2. I would say that while the NL-to-AL consideration has to apply, there has to also be some consideration that playing in USCF increases power numbers. I mean, Uribe has hit for more power here than he did in Colorado, which is saying something. As for the idea of good teams being trouble for Cintron, since we're going to accept here small sample sizes as relevant, the team in baseball with by far the best team ERA right now is Detroit. Cintron is hitting .419 against them, with an OPS of 1.212.

Also, his stats this year are pretty much in line with his career numbers. Oh, and Uribe this year, against DET is hitting .238, against LAA .235, against NYY he's hitting .111. His best games this year have been against Jason Johnson (7/29), Rodrigo Lopez (7/4), John Koronka (7/22), Sean Marshall (6/30), Scott Kazmir (5/16), Carlos Silva (5/14), Carlos Silva (4/23), and Jeremy Affeldt (4/7). He has been shut down in starts against top pitchers like Santana or Halladay (combined 0-10 in games they start).

3. Iguchi gets on base more than Podsednik. And he brings himself in 15-20 times per year without depending on the guys behind him to do so, which to me negates the stolen base advantage.

4. Fair enough on this point. I disagree. In my little vision, they wouldn't both be playing, since the 12-15 million freed up could go towards a veteran OF who would negate this concern. But I'd take that chance, especially with what I feel is a bolstered pitching staff.The correct comparison case is just getting rid of Garcia or Vazquez, which frees up $10M. So you're not freeing up any more money and you're taking on a very long term obligation (costing millions in insurance, which you've neglected). And you've replaced two known quantities with two big question marks. Don't compare Cintron vs. a specific team. Look at his game logs. Just about every good game he's had has been against either inexperienced or "B" list pitchers. Playing every day he'd be lucky to break .230, and he can't compensate by taking walks or having a little power. I just don't see him as an everyday player. Neither does Ozzie. We'll have to agree to disagree here.

Moving Iguchi up to leadoff leaves you a hole in the #2 spot, for which Iguchi is exceptionally well suited. Who now hits #2? The Sox don't really have anyone well-suited to do that. And please don't suggest Cintron, because he's marginal as a bottom of the order hitter.

spiffie
08-14-2006, 04:18 PM
The correct comparison case is just getting rid of Garcia or Vazquez, which frees up $10M. So you're not freeing up any more money and you're taking on a very long term obligation (costing millions in insurance, which you've neglected). And you've replaced two known quantities with two big question marks. Don't compare Cintron vs. a specific team. Look at his game logs. Just about every good game he's had has been against either inexperienced or "B" list pitchers. Playing every day he'd be lucky to break .230, and he can't compensate by taking walks or having a little power. I just don't see him as an everyday player. Neither does Ozzie. We'll have to agree to disagree here.

Moving Iguchi up to leadoff leaves you a hole in the #2 spot, for which Iguchi is exceptionally well suited. Who now hits #2? The Sox don't really have anyone well-suited to do that. And please don't suggest Cintron, because he's marginal as a bottom of the order hitter.
So what you're suggesting is that Barry Zito is a bigger question mark than Javier Vazquez? He has a career ERA of 3.73. He's had one season with an ERA over 4. He has decreased his ERA each of the last 2 seasons, putting him on a positive trend. Over the last 4 years his road and home splits have been basically equal, so he's not being artifically helped by his park. In fact this year his road ERA is over a run lower than his home ERA. I can understand not wanting to make this move, there are good reasons you have come up with. But to suggest that Zito is a bigger question mark than Garcia or Vazquez at this point seems like a rather large stretch.

With the Cintron thing, I've looked at his game logs. I've looked at Uribe's game logs. And I've looked at nearly 2000 atbats where Cintron has hit .280 or so over the whole stretch. You say Cintron can't hit good pitching, but neither can Uribe. Uribe has stunk up the joint against good pitching this season. His big games have all come against scrub pitchers.

As for insurance, do you have any information on that other than the statement of it costing millions? Do we have any knowledge of what the Sox pay now for insurance on contracts for say Garland or Contreras, or for hitters such as Konerko? Are they factoring that into their payroll figures? I don't doubt insurance is expensive, but I am curious to know what the current protocol is for dealing with it and the going rates.

As for the Iguchi thing, again here we disagree about lineup construction being a major concern. Assuming no new veterans (which I would support us getting, even if it's a mid-level vet with better OPS than Pods is giving us), I would not be averse to Cintron. The logic of someone who is barely a .250 hitter hitting second seemed good enough for Ozzie to try it with Uribe, why not someone who is a .280 hitter like Cintron? However that question would really depend on what other moves were made under such a scenario. I would expect that if the Sox did something like this, that the next priority would be getting a solid hitter for the #2 spot.

russ99
08-14-2006, 04:18 PM
That chances of that happening are 0.0

Dude, I'm getting pretty tired of your Anti-Pods sig! :tongue:

Pods will be back in 07! :D:

Tragg
08-14-2006, 07:29 PM
Don't we have a MB to sign (or not) next year?
How much do yall figure Zito will get? 5/15 is insane for him. He's not a creme de la creme pitcher...he'll get more than he deserves because he's cream of the crop this year.
Cinton's a really bad offensive player...he's a nice utility guy.

Ol' No. 2
08-15-2006, 01:20 PM
So what you're suggesting is that Barry Zito is a bigger question mark than Javier Vazquez? He has a career ERA of 3.73. He's had one season with an ERA over 4. He has decreased his ERA each of the last 2 seasons, putting him on a positive trend. Over the last 4 years his road and home splits have been basically equal, so he's not being artifically helped by his park. In fact this year his road ERA is over a run lower than his home ERA. I can understand not wanting to make this move, there are good reasons you have come up with. But to suggest that Zito is a bigger question mark than Garcia or Vazquez at this point seems like a rather large stretch.

With the Cintron thing, I've looked at his game logs. I've looked at Uribe's game logs. And I've looked at nearly 2000 atbats where Cintron has hit .280 or so over the whole stretch. You say Cintron can't hit good pitching, but neither can Uribe. Uribe has stunk up the joint against good pitching this season. His big games have all come against scrub pitchers.

As for insurance, do you have any information on that other than the statement of it costing millions? Do we have any knowledge of what the Sox pay now for insurance on contracts for say Garland or Contreras, or for hitters such as Konerko? Are they factoring that into their payroll figures? I don't doubt insurance is expensive, but I am curious to know what the current protocol is for dealing with it and the going rates.

As for the Iguchi thing, again here we disagree about lineup construction being a major concern. Assuming no new veterans (which I would support us getting, even if it's a mid-level vet with better OPS than Pods is giving us), I would not be averse to Cintron. The logic of someone who is barely a .250 hitter hitting second seemed good enough for Ozzie to try it with Uribe, why not someone who is a .280 hitter like Cintron? However that question would really depend on what other moves were made under such a scenario. I would expect that if the Sox did something like this, that the next priority would be getting a solid hitter for the #2 spot.For the same money, I'd take Zito. But they're not the same money. Not even close. Vazquez has one year remaining on his contract at $12.5M, with $3M paid by ARI for a net of $9.5M. You're talking about committing $75M for Zito. So for 2007, that's a $5.5M difference. But the overall $$ committment is much larger. You can't just compare on a per year basis because if Vazquez stinks it up next year you can get rid of him, but you'd be stuck with four more years (and another $60M) of Zito. As for insurance, I don't have any exact figures on particular players, but it depends not only on the size of the contract but on the number of years. Just think about the likelihood of a pitcher making it through a 5-year contract without missing significant time due to injury. For a 5 year deal I'd expect it would be at least 10% of the total value of the contract. There's absolutely no way I would EVER sign a pitcher to a 5-yr deal with that kind of money involved.

As for Uribe v. Cintron, even if you believe they're equal offensively, Uribe is far better defensively. He's got much better range and a much stronger arm. Even with his recent mental lapses, there's no way I'd rather have Cintron in the field. But more importantly, SS is the #1 place I would look to upgrade next year. By packaging a starter + Uribe + a prospect, they should be able to get a SS in return who is a significant improvement over either Uribe or Cintron. They might have to take on some salary to do it, but you can use the money saved getting rid of Garcia or Vazquez to offset that. If you use it to get Zito, not only does that opportunity go out the window, but it puts a major crimp in the amount of money the Sox have to improve the team for the next five years.