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app2686
08-08-2006, 12:11 AM
According to baseballprospectus.com (which know more about baseball than any of us here), the odds the White Sox make the playoffs this year (as of 08/07/06) is 40% .

Now this mathematically does make some sense if we concede the White Sox will compete for a wildcard spot and that the competition for this spot lies among the Red Sox, Twins, and White Sox.

Here are the top five (as of 08/07/06):

Mets - 99.8%
Tigers - 98.6%
Yankees - 84.4%
Cardinals - 72.8%
Padres - 55.4%


Red Sox - 43.6%
White Sox - 40%
Twins - 31.7%

What do you guys think? Shouldn't the 2006 White Sox be better than a 40% shoe-in?

AnkleSox
08-08-2006, 12:19 AM
According to baseballprospectus.com (which know more about baseball than any of us here)

I'm hoping that's supposed to be in teal.

SpartanSoxFan
08-08-2006, 12:21 AM
What did Baseball Prospectus say about our chances of winning the World Series last year???

Allow me to do the honors...

:threadsucks

Lip Man 1
08-08-2006, 12:24 AM
APP:

Baseball Prospectus is a publication run by propellerheaded morons who know nothing about baseball. Particularly the fact that it's played by human beings in stadiums, in front of thousands of fans and not in their parents basements on a lap top computer.

This is the same publication, if I'm not mistaken, that insisted the Sox had less then a 100% chance of winning the Central Division in 2005 AFTER they had already clinched it!

Last week in S.I. they said the Sox wouldn't make the post-season because their rate of strikeouts dropped .44 per game from 2005. That's insane...less then one strikeout per game is not going to decide if you make it or not.

I agree the Sox aren't going to win the division but they still have an excellent shot at the post-season regardless of what the stat geeks have to say.

:rolleyes:

Lip

HotelWhiteSox
08-08-2006, 12:27 AM
According to baseballprospectus.com (which know more about baseball than any of us here), the odds the White Sox make the playoffs this year (as of 08/07/06) is 40% .

Now this mathematically does make some sense if we concede the White Sox will compete for a wildcard spot and that the competition for this spot lies among the Red Sox, Twins, and White Sox.

Here are the top five (as of 08/07/06):

Mets - 99.8%
Tigers - 98.6%
Yankees - 84.4%
Cardinals - 72.8%
Padres - 55.4%


Red Sox - 43.6%
White Sox - 40%
Twins - 31.7%

What do you guys think? Shouldn't the 2006 White Sox be better than a 40% shoe-in?

You are new here, but I wouldn't put too much stock into BP, especially their percentages. Last year, after clinching the division, they still gave some percent of us missing the playoffs or of Cleveland winning the division, ridiculous.

Dan Mega
08-08-2006, 12:28 AM
Yes, what Lip said.

MrX
08-08-2006, 12:35 AM
According to baseballprospectus.com (which know more about baseball than any of us here)

I guess we now know app2686 is really Joe Sheehan

thomas35forever
08-08-2006, 12:44 AM
Go to WTS for another thread on how the fine folks here at WSI feel about BP.

QCIASOXFAN
08-08-2006, 01:08 AM
I'll take a dump and call it baseball prospectus.

SOXintheBURGH
08-08-2006, 01:24 AM
White Sox win games = playoffs.

Right?

Chips
08-08-2006, 01:28 AM
I'll take a dump and call it baseball prospectus.
:hijacked: :hijacked:
Did somebody say Dump?

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/gallery/data/6/Dumpjerryupclose.JPG

I'm gotta get to bed.

Dan Mega
08-08-2006, 08:10 AM
BP has a 7% chance of being a legit source on baseball.

Fenway
08-08-2006, 08:34 AM
I think the Yankees at 84.4% is a bit high, they are a three game losing streak away from being in the same mess as Chicago, Boston and Minnesota.

itsnotrequired
08-08-2006, 08:51 AM
BP has a 7% chance of being a legit source on baseball.

Too high...

I want Mags back
08-08-2006, 09:05 AM
the way we have been playing. I'll take that 40%

Britt Burns
08-08-2006, 09:39 AM
According to the latest BP, there is a 18% chance the Sox won the World series last year.

buehrle4cy05
08-08-2006, 12:33 PM
Baseball Prospectus is a publication run by propellerheaded morons who know nothing about baseball.

Everybody who has been to a baseball game automatically knows more about the game than those idiots.

PKalltheway
08-08-2006, 12:42 PM
**** BP. Hey BP, they play the games for a reason, morons! They actually gave the Padres a 55.4% chance to make the playoffs when ANY of the other four teams in the NL West can overtake them at ANY time? Yankees at 84%? A three game losing streak can put them in deep ****. Cardinals at 72%? The Reds have been on their ass since June. To hell with what BP says. They play the games for a reason. I still like the White Sox's chances to make it. Hell, I think the White Sox have a better chance at making the postseason than San Diego does anyway.

BeviBall!
08-08-2006, 02:12 PM
White Sox win games = playoffs.

Right?

I like your theory and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

SoxSpeed22
08-08-2006, 02:32 PM
They way I see it: There's a 50% chance of everything, either you do or you don't.

downstairs
08-08-2006, 02:37 PM
I really don't see what's wrong with the "odds" stats. All they're doing is playing simulated games and telling you the outcome of the simulated seasons.

Its not supposed to be a "replacement" for real games. I think its just easier sometimes to read the odds stat, rather than figure things out from 4 other teams W/L and remaining schedule.

One real nice thing it does is takes into account the actual games that will played against each other. For example, if we're fighting against both BOS and NYY, the fact that they play each other a lot affects things.

For another example... it shows that the Cubs, despite being 9.5 games back, are almost a lock to not make it... because of all the teams in front of them playing each other.

Johnny Mostil
08-08-2006, 02:47 PM
According to baseballprospectus.com (which know more about baseball than any of us here), the odds the White Sox make the playoffs this year (as of 08/07/06) is 40% .

Now this mathematically does make some sense if we concede the White Sox will compete for a wildcard spot and that the competition for this spot lies among the Red Sox, Twins, and White Sox.

Here are the top five (as of 08/07/06):

Mets - 99.8%
Tigers - 98.6%
Yankees - 84.4%
Cardinals - 72.8%
Padres - 55.4%


Red Sox - 43.6%
White Sox - 40%
Twins - 31.7%

What do you guys think? Shouldn't the 2006 White Sox be better than a 40% shoe-in?

I agree BP is, um, BS, and Lip was spot on about this nonsense, but, really, is 40% all that far-fetched? If the Right Sox, Wrong Sox, and Twins are the only three "legitimate" contenders for the wild card, and the pairs of Sox are currently tied for the lead, maybe it's not that far off . . .

FielderJones
08-08-2006, 02:56 PM
They way I see it: There's a 50% chance of everything, either you do or you don't.

Great, I'll take those odds. I'll roll two dice, if they add up to seven, you win $100. If they don't, I win $100. Either they add up to seven or they don't, right?

DumpJerry
08-08-2006, 03:49 PM
I reckon that the "people" at BP are the ones who came up with the line "the chances of my getting work done are.............remote."

Always playing the odds.

miker
08-08-2006, 03:49 PM
According to the latest BP, there is a 18% chance the Sox won the World series last year.
ESPN is reporting this finding too and will have a two-hour special on if Boston or New York aren't in the World Series, does it really happen?

sullythered
08-09-2006, 11:26 AM
News for BP: Not everything can be broken down into percentages. Baseball is not a ****ing video game. It is played by people. Because of that fact, there are myriad variables that CANNOT be anticipated. Variable that might range from Derek Jeter breaking his leg, to something like Josh Beckett getting a fruit fly in his eye while throwing a pitch that yields a HR that changes the course of a season.

That is why baseball is great, and that is why the jealous nerds (I have nothing against nerds, just BP nerds) at BP will never really be relevant.