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View Full Version : Looking for everyone's honest opinion regarding us making the playoffs


soxyess
07-26-2006, 08:13 PM
We here are all true sox fans, and though I am still hoping that we turn this around, I want the other fans here to dig deep inside and post your true feelings on whether or not the we will make the playoffs. Here's my opinion:

Again I preface this by saying that im not quitting on this team, but I just dont see the magic that was there last year. We are not playing fundamentaly sound baseball, and thats the main reason we won it all last year. Pitching, great defense, and timely hitting. We are lacking all of those elements. Last year we would have won last nights game. This year we come up short. I just dont think we will make the postseason this year. Let me know what you all think.

ChiSox80
07-26-2006, 08:18 PM
I think you're insane. I'm 95% certain that we can at least pull off the wild card, but I think we're going to take the division.

SpartanSoxFan
07-26-2006, 08:21 PM
I'd say at this point the chances of the wild card are 50/50. There are a lot of very, very good teams competing for that one spot.

As far as winning the division goes, I'd like a snowball's chance in hell better at this point...

CommanderPudge72
07-26-2006, 08:23 PM
We collectively got into this slump...and if we get collectively out of it...nobody can play with us.

Detroit and MN never frieghtened me when we were playing well. Right now, my softball team could beat the Sox...

The key thing is, the timing...can't slide much longer, because then time becomes a factor.

I am still believing that Detroit and MN will hit a cold streak after their hot streak like Cleveland last year.

kevingrt
07-26-2006, 08:24 PM
We are going to make the playoffs.

RedHeadPaleHoser
07-26-2006, 08:25 PM
We ARE in the postseason. No question.

We cannot belittle Detroit for playing wicked good ball - like record setting "history in MLB" ball.

The ****storm is over - it's the Sox' turn to rain on everyone else now.

Palehose13
07-26-2006, 08:26 PM
I firmly believe that the White Sox will be in the playoffs.

JB98
07-26-2006, 08:27 PM
We're a playoff team.

QCIASOXFAN
07-26-2006, 08:28 PM
In the end we will be in the playoffs, if it happens to be as a wildcard so be it.

Paulwny
07-26-2006, 08:31 PM
[quote=soxyess]We here are all true sox fans, and though I am still hoping that we turn this around, I want the other fans here to dig deep inside and post your true feelings on whether or not the we will make the playoffs. Here's my opinion:

quote]

The answer to this question would be better answered after the trading dead line when we see what teams line-ups get stronger or which teams pitching corps improved.

StatHead21
07-26-2006, 08:32 PM
Not unless they make a move.

Chicken Dinner
07-26-2006, 08:34 PM
If the May team starts coming out on the field, yes, if the July team keeps coming out, no way.

rainbow6
07-26-2006, 08:34 PM
As long as we gain some ground, even 1 game, during the next 6 games, I firmly believe we will win the division. If not, I think the wild card is ours...

If, however, Mark Beurhle lands on the DL like I fear he will all bets are off...

Luke

Lip Man 1
07-26-2006, 08:36 PM
Unless Detroit implodes the Sox won't win the division. The Tigers can lose it but I don't think the Sox can win it..not anymore.

The wild card is tricky. If the Sox can stay in the lead then they still control their own destiny. If they fall off the pace though there are so many teams bunched up right now that to 'hope' for two or three clubs to fall apart is a long shot.

The Sox have to start winning right now. Not worry about next week, not 'resting' for September but to play like there is no tomorrow.

If they finally start to play with a sense of passion, of purpose again, then yes they can win the wild card.

The other factor will be who comes back from injuries and how much help will that give to teams like the Yankees and Twins.

The Sox have no one hurt and Hermanson has basically been written off by Kenny and Ozzie so they aren't going to get any help in that deparetment.

It's very regrettable that it's come down to this but those are the facts.

The Sox have only themselves to blame and if they can rebound they'll have themselves to thank for it.

Lip

cbotnyse
07-26-2006, 08:37 PM
The answer to this question would be better answered after the trading dead line when we see what teams line-ups get stronger or which teams pitching corps improved.I agree, there most likely will be some impact players moving around. Like someone said, there are alot of good teams gunning for the wild card. I do believe we will make it, but I think if and when we do make it, it sure wont be as easy as last year.

soxyess
07-26-2006, 08:38 PM
Very well put. Thats an opinion with analysis.

ChiSox80
07-26-2006, 08:39 PM
A lot of the chicken littles are just crazy. Detroit's pitchers are pitching seven miles above their heads. They're set to have the second best rotation ERA of the modern era. Think that's happening with the likes of Nate freaking Robertson and Kenny Rogers? Not a chance.

The Sox rotation is pitching WAY under their abilities.

Regression to the mean must take place on both ends. Both staffs will begin to pitch closer to their natural abilities, as is evidenced by Garland's recent spiral toward a lower era. He's never been a 7 ERA pitcher, so it's balancing out. Kenny Rogers' ERA has been jumping upward.

People in the Central due to either regress or progress:
Verlander- heading down
Uribe- heading up
Anderson- heading up
Ozuna- heading down
Konerko- heading down (batting average only)
Thome- heading down (batting average only)
Dye- heading down (batting average only)
Buehrle- heading up
Robertson- heading down
Maroth- heading down, once he comes off the DL
Garland- heading up
Vazquez- heading up
Thames- heading down in a huge way
Mauer- heading down (batting average only)
Bonderman- heading down
Liriano- heading down
Crede- heading down (hate to say it, but probably average and power...maybe .270/30 when it's all done)
Dye- heading down (batting average only)
Morneau- - heading down (batting average only)

...As for the Twins as a whole: .800 baseball is not sustainable for an entire half...Just as the Sox' .100 baseball is also not sustainable.

infohawk
07-26-2006, 08:41 PM
If Buerhrle pitches like Buerhrle, the Sox either put McCarthy in the rotation or pull Vazquez after 5 innings, I think we are likely to win the wild card. I'm not too worried about the offense. We're just going through one of those periods where several guys are slumping at once. There must be changes in the starting rotation though, either the ones I mentioned above or something else. Right now 3/5 of the rotation is killing us with horrible performances or, in Freddy's case, inconsistency from start to start.

It's Time
07-26-2006, 08:46 PM
They have a team talented enough to be there. As of this moment, I would say no, they won't be there. They're too one dimensional again on offense and the starters are in a word:

Bad.

WS in 05
07-26-2006, 08:51 PM
I was not around this site during the regular reason last year because basically I never knew it existed(so no I am not a bandwagoner) but is this how it was last year when the sox where on there slide and cleveland was catching quickly? if so I bet it had to be ten times worse than what we are going through now(I mean all the people on the ledge)

eurotrash35
07-26-2006, 08:54 PM
there have been few times this year that I felt like they were playing great ball. If they can start playing baseball like everybody knows they can they're in. If they can't, they won't even be close.

I don't know what's going to happen. I thought we would be playing our best ball by now. I give it a 50/50 chance too.

MarySwiss
07-26-2006, 09:00 PM
Unless Detroit implodes the Sox won't win the division. The Tigers can lose it but I don't think the Sox can win it..not anymore.

The wild card is tricky. If the Sox can stay in the lead then they still control their own destiny. If they fall off the pace though there are so many teams bunched up right now that to 'hope' for two or three clubs to fall apart is a long shot.

The Sox have to start winning right now. Not worry about next week, not 'resting' for September but to play like there is no tomorrow.

If they finally start to play with a sense of passion, of purpose again, then yes they can win the wild card.

The other factor will be who comes back from injuries and how much help will that give to teams like the Yankees and Twins.

The Sox have no one hurt and Hermanson has basically been written off by Kenny and Ozzie so they aren't going to get any help in that deparetment.

It's very regrettable that it's come down to this but those are the facts.

The Sox have only themselves to blame and if they can rebound they'll have themselves to thank for it.

Lip

No, Lip; "those" are a mixture of facts and your opinion.

Detroit does not need to "implode." They just need to come back to earth at some point. And they will. And so will the Twins.

End of July/early August is way too early to start thinking about the Wild Card. Have you forgotten last year? Cleveland coming out of nowhere? And does anyone reading this seriously think that the 2005 Indians > than the 2006 Sox?

Sorry, but I'll start thinking about the WC in mid-September, if need be (and I'll bet the need won't be). Meanwhile--and you can call me Pollyanna--I still firmly believe that the Sox are the best--if the most underachieving-team in baseball. I agree with you that the Sox's fate is in their hands (and bats and gloves). They WILL step it up.

sox1970
07-26-2006, 09:00 PM
I'd say it's these percentages of who makes it:

Twins--40%
Yankees--30%
White Sox--25%
Blue Jays--5%

I hope I'm wrong, but it's looking bad.

MarySwiss
07-26-2006, 09:01 PM
I'd say it's these percentages of who makes it:

Twins--40%
Yankees--30%
White Sox--25%
Blue Jays--5%

I hope I'm wrong, but it's looking bad.

And this is based on?

sox1970
07-26-2006, 09:05 PM
And this is based on?

Trend, history, what I'm seeing with my own two eyes, strength of remaining schedules.

vegyrex
07-26-2006, 09:06 PM
If this was late August I'd say our chance are not so good. Since this is late July we still have a good shot at it.

If don't do well on this up coming road trip our chances will look much dimmer.:(:

BeviBall!
07-26-2006, 09:06 PM
And does anyone reading this seriously think that the 2005 Indians > than the 2006 Sox?

No but the Tribe's schedule was a complete joke in the second half whilst ours is one of the toughest.

I'd say we're 75/25 at this point. And, it is way too early to start thinking wild card. Two months and 10 games versus the one you're chasing is a lot of baseball.

sox1970
07-26-2006, 09:09 PM
And, it is way too early to start thinking wild card. Two months and 10 games versus the one you're chasing is a lot of baseball.

I don't know how you "think wildcard" or "think division". They just have to win games. Whether they get back in the division race will depend a whole lot on what the Twins and Tigers do, which they have no control over unless they're playing them. Just keep winning games and things will take care of themselves one way or another.

cheezheadsoxfan
07-26-2006, 09:20 PM
I was not around this site during the regular reason last year because basically I never knew it existed(so no I am not a bandwagoner) but is this how it was last year when the sox where on there slide and cleveland was catching quickly? if so I bet it had to be ten times worse than what we are going through now(I mean all the people on the ledge)

I'm also an old Sox fan/new WSI poster and have been wondering the same thing. What was it like here last August?

Grzegorz
07-26-2006, 09:22 PM
I'll go 50/50 for a wildcard and that is only is the staff turns it around. I do not believe the division championship is possible without a momentous collapse by Detroit. Remember the schedule is brutal down the stretch. If the White Sox close they need to close right now.

I just heard tonight that the Twins are playing close to a .800 clip. I'd love to see what the Twins record is when Santana and Liriano pitch.

Face it; when push comes to shove the Tigers and Twins have solid pitching staffs. The White Sox? Not so solid...

ChiSox80
07-26-2006, 09:24 PM
All it takes are two tough weeks for the majority of Sox fans to jump ship. God knows, the sainted Tigers and Twins won't come back to earth. They're both going to keep on pace to win 110 games. Why? Because they aren't the White Sox.

Hey, fools. The 2005 Orioles and Nationals are calling. Remember them? You know, coming out of nowhere on pace for 110 wins? Finishing way, way out of contention? How about the 2006 Brewers? What were there, 30 articles a day for the first couple of weeks telling us how they were going to win the NL Central and go to the World Series? Wonder where they went.

Again, that would never happen to the Tigers and Twins. After all, they're the two best regular season teams in the past 30 years and all.

:angry: :angry: :angry:

I'm embarrassed to be a Sox fan right now with the way most of you are acting. Deja Vu, August 2005...Damned fools.

infohawk
07-26-2006, 09:28 PM
I'm also an old Sox fan/new WSI poster and have been wondering the same thing. What was it like here last August?
There was a lot of angst. Most of us were sucking our thumbs and rocking back and forth like Leo Mazzone.:tongue:

infohawk
07-26-2006, 09:33 PM
Face it; when push comes to shove the Tigers and Twins have solid pitching staffs. The White Sox? Not so solid... The really unfortunate thing is that its not KW's fault. All five starters are pretty proven (certainly Buerhrle, Garcia and Contreras) and there was no reason to think that they wouldn't be fairly dominating in 2006. It would be easy to say that KW should have done this or that. He played it correctly, it's just that 3/5 of the rotation just isn't getting the job done. Maybe we need Bicardi and Cola to show us the way?

SOXfnNlansing
07-26-2006, 09:33 PM
all you have to do is get in the playoffs and be dangerous. Yes, I think the Sox will win the division still, but if not we definately will be the wild card. Can you imagine a playoff rotation of Contereras, Buehrle, Garland, and Clemens? B2B Champs!

Grzegorz
07-26-2006, 09:38 PM
The really unfortunate thing is that its not KW's fault. All five starters are pretty proven (certainly Buerhrle, Garcia and Contreras) and there was no reason to think that they wouldn't be fairly dominating in 2006. It would be easy to say that KW should have done this or that. He played it correctly, it's just that 3/5 of the rotation just isn't getting the job done. Maybe we need Bicardi and Cola to show us the way?

I am not blaming KW; anyone would have expected this staff to be the lynchpin of the 2006 edition of the White Sox.

I with you on the rum but what we need is a little Captain Morgan's and orange juice. :D:

Martinigirl
07-26-2006, 09:44 PM
I believe that we are too talented to continue to lose like this and the law of averages has to catch up to the Tigers sooner or later. I think we will make it to the playoffs, but, just like last year, we won't have a cake walk to get there.

I might be in denial, but I just think this is our time to falter a bit, and once we snap out of this, we will be the team that looked so good earlier this season.

No one escapes an entire season without some pain, so this is just our time to feel it.

MVP
07-26-2006, 09:52 PM
I'd say we have no better than a 25% chance of making the playoffs. We have more talent than any other team in the playoff hunt at this point. Still, teamwork beats talent.

kitekrazy
07-26-2006, 10:06 PM
A lot of the chicken littles are just crazy. Detroit's pitchers are pitching seven miles above their heads. They're set to have the second best rotation ERA of the modern era. Think that's happening with the likes of Nate freaking Robertson and Kenny Rogers? Not a chance.


Got news for ya. It is happening.

kitekrazy
07-26-2006, 10:08 PM
Not unless they make a move.

Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson are no longer around.

I don't think any move is going to change anything for now.

Madvora
07-26-2006, 10:18 PM
Division - Detroit
Wild Card - White Sox

I truly believe that there is no way the Sox will win 9 more games than Detroit from this point forward until the end of the season (to make up that lead.) Detroit is just way too good.

The Sox will be competing with Boston, NY, Toronto and Minnesota at the end of this season, most likely into the last week and we will come out on top.

pudge
07-26-2006, 10:18 PM
strength of remaining schedules.

That's why I'm feeling pretty down right now. If I had to bet, I'd say no. Then again, I would have lost a lot of money last year betting against us.

Having said that... I think we would make a GREAT playoff team if we can get there.

pudge
07-26-2006, 10:20 PM
Again, that would never happen to the Tigers and Twins. After all, they're the two best regular season teams in the past 30 years and all.

Believe it or not, some of this is based on rational thought. We're looking at the Tigers and Twins pitching. Remember that great pitching that won us a World Series last year? Those teams have it this year.

ChiSox80
07-26-2006, 10:26 PM
Got news for ya. It is happening.

You're really ready to declare Detroit's starting rotation the second best in 30 years with 40% of the season remaining?

You're either Nostradamus or Nostradumbass.

I'm certain that a month ago you were making posts about how Garland would finish this year with a 7+ ERA, too. You were probably all about DFAing Anderson.

kitekrazy
07-26-2006, 10:26 PM
They have a team talented enough to be there. As of this moment, I would say no, they won't be there. They're too one dimensional again on offense and the starters are in a word:

Bad.
I see it that way. After Mark giving up more runs than the opposing pitcher with a higher ERA and losing record settles it for me.

2 of the 5 starters are doing well, the other 3 are becoming guaranteed losses. That's about a .400 winning percentage. Then good starts are erased by bad bats.

Some pitchers have an off year and maybe Mark was due for one of those since he's averaged 15 wins in his career.

Detroit is probably playing over their head but there's no law that says it will end.

I don't think desperation trades are the answer right now. You have almost the same team as last year. If the Sox don't go anywhere this year, I like their chances for next year if they keep the same team. I don't think Detroit can repeat this season next year.

I also think it's time for Ozzie to shut up and manage. His little soap operas were tolerable when they are winning. NOw they are annoying. Just shut up for now!

russ99
07-26-2006, 10:35 PM
Generally any team that's 10 games or less out by the end of July still has a chance to win their division. Look what Cleveland did to our 15? game lead last August and September. If the Sox can get the lead down to five in the next few weeks, they'll have a great chance, assuming that they can get their pitching troubles under control.

Every starter but Buehrle and Vasquez has show signs of great improvement in the last week, and if Ozzie uses a short leash with Vazquez, that may turn out OK. I haven't a clue what's wrong with Mark, but he's gotta cinch it up. Is he somehow hurt and won't admit it to the staff?

The pitching issue is a much bigger hinderance than problems with the offense - there's no doubt that the hitters will get hot again. I think the hitting problems are mostly due to the All-Star break happening at the worst time for them - after that exhausting 19 inning game, plus half the regular lineup went to Pittsburgh and had no down time at the break. I also believe Ozzie's lineup juggling will pay off in September when the Sox players will be less worn down than the competition.

We all have to agree that the bullpen is vastly better that the Sox had at opening day. If by some miracle Hermanson can pitch the last few months, it could be even better. Cotts could be doing better, but it seems Ozzie is using him in the most difficult of relief spots, hindering his numbers.

I think a trade or two before either the non-waiver (July 31) or waiver (Aug 30) deadlines could shake up the team even further away from their current doldrums. An mid-level experienced starter (McCarthy can go to AAA) and a backup outfielder who can play defense, hit for a decent average and have some speed would be the biggest needs.

I think it's quite legitimate for the Sox to still aim for the division title, and have a great shot at the wild card if they fall short. The Yankees/Red Sox division loser will be there at the end competing for the wild card, but considering the injuries the Twins have and the amazing run they've been on lately (peaking at the wrong time IMO), I see them dropping off a bit.

I'd give the Sox a 65-85% chance of making the playoffs. 65% the way they're playing now, 85% if they start playing to their potential very soon.

Huisj
07-26-2006, 10:47 PM
Worst case scenario question here: What if the Sox got swept by the Orioles this weekend and are then eve farther behind Detroit and a few games behind Minnesota (assuming that they neither of those teams sweeps their series against each other this weekend). Is there a small possibility of KW pulling off some trades similar to the '97 White Flag deals and kick off a massive retooling effort to looks toward next year and beyond? If somehow the trading deadline suddenly makes other GMs jumpy about getting a pitcher and KW were to put Garcia, Vazquez, and Buehrle on the market, do you think KW could steal something really good in return for one of those guys?

I know that no one wants a repeat of the White Flag trade, and it seems kind of weird to sell these guys when they are low, but if they can't help the team at all through their pitching, could they help the team through what they would get them in a trade? Could the Sox suddenly turn into sellers?

russ99
07-26-2006, 10:53 PM
With the amount of payroll invested and media and fan attention on the Sox this year, plus ticket sales the way they are the rest of the season...

No way. Not a snowball's chance is there a White Flag trade this year, and Kenny's already alluded that everyone on the major league roster is safe at the deadline.

If they miss the playoffs, all bets are off, but at least Kenny will be dealing from a position of strength and can do Braves-style rebuilding. He won't rip down the roster and start from scratch - that's what the Cubs need to do.

sox1970
07-26-2006, 10:54 PM
I know that no one wants a repeat of the White Flag trade, and it seems kind of weird to sell these guys when they are low, but if they can't help the team at all through their pitching, could they help the team through what they would get them in a trade? Could the Sox suddenly turn into sellers?

Very unlikely. I think they'll go with horses that brought 'em there and hope for the best.

Lip Man 1
07-26-2006, 11:46 PM
Mary:

You do know that according to win percentage Detroit has the 'easiest' schedule in the second half and the Sox have one of the most difficult right?

Chisox 80:

For someone with 30 posts you're sure throwing a lot of rather harsh words and phrases around aren't you?

One question for you and your 'mean regression' propellerhead stuff.

Who's to say the 'regression' won't take place until NEXT SEASON?

Cliff Politte was lights out in 2005...his implosion came the following season.

It happens...guys play over their heads, guys play out their rear ends...sometimes for an ENTIRE season.

For you to say something is dead certain because the numbers say so ignors the fact that baseball is a game played by humans with emotions. It's played in stadiums...not in your families basement on a laptop.

Lip

kwolf68
07-26-2006, 11:51 PM
There is plenty of time for this thing to turn around, but I am not brimming with confidence, because I have seen Minnesota pitch and I have seen Detroit pitch.

Quite honestly, we have nothing for either of them. We don't have any pitcher with the stuff of either of those teams top two starters.

And the bullpens are also nasty, although I like how our bullpen is shaping up.

DickAllen72
07-26-2006, 11:59 PM
Vazquez- heading up


What makes you so sure Vazquez is heading up? He's been pitching the same way he has been for the past couple of years.

Ishmookie
07-27-2006, 12:01 AM
Personally, I see us making the playoffs. The yanks are flawed and the Twins hitting is too vulnerable. We havent played our best ball yet. Once the Sox go on a run they'll be ok. They just have to pick it up. I'm very frustrated right now. But still think they'll bounce back.

Save McCuddy's
07-27-2006, 12:15 AM
For someone with 30 posts you're sure throwing a lot of rather harsh words and phrases around aren't you?

Lip

Lip -

How many posts before I can start throwing the ole harsh words and phrases around?

SoxShirt
07-27-2006, 12:16 AM
Unless Detroit implodes the Sox won't win the division. The Tigers can lose it but I don't think the Sox can win it..not anymore.

The wild card is tricky. If the Sox can stay in the lead then they still control their own destiny. If they fall off the pace though there are so many teams bunched up right now that to 'hope' for two or three clubs to fall apart is a long shot.

The Sox have to start winning right now. Not worry about next week, not 'resting' for September but to play like there is no tomorrow.

If they finally start to play with a sense of passion, of purpose again, then yes they can win the wild card.

The other factor will be who comes back from injuries and how much help will that give to teams like the Yankees and Twins.

The Sox have no one hurt and Hermanson has basically been written off by Kenny and Ozzie so they aren't going to get any help in that deparetment.

It's very regrettable that it's come down to this but those are the facts.

The Sox have only themselves to blame and if they can rebound they'll have themselves to thank for it.

Lip I totally agree with you. I really hope the Sox can start winning again, but they need to start now.

Hitmen77
07-27-2006, 12:17 AM
I think the hitting will snap out of it's funk. So it will all come down to pitching.

If Buehrle continues to struggle and other pitchers continue to be inconsistent, THEN no playoffs for the Sox.

If MB can snap out of this funk and if Jose can be as dominating as he was July '05 to May '06 - then I like our chances.

eurotrash35
07-27-2006, 12:27 AM
All it takes are two tough weeks for the majority of Sox fans to jump ship. God knows, the sainted Tigers and Twins won't come back to earth. They're both going to keep on pace to win 110 games. Why? Because they aren't the White Sox.

Hey, fools. The 2005 Orioles and Nationals are calling. Remember them? You know, coming out of nowhere on pace for 110 wins? Finishing way, way out of contention? How about the 2006 Brewers? What were there, 30 articles a day for the first couple of weeks telling us how they were going to win the NL Central and go to the World Series? Wonder where they went.

Again, that would never happen to the Tigers and Twins. After all, they're the two best regular season teams in the past 30 years and all.

:angry: :angry: :angry:

I'm embarrassed to be a Sox fan right now with the way most of you are acting. Deja Vu, August 2005...Damned fools.

oh please, we've been hearing that for the past two months. if anybody is foolish it's the people acting as if teams are going to fall off just because it happened to another team last year. stop being such a pissed off pollyanna. you guys are the worst. :rolleyes:

ChetChat
07-27-2006, 12:32 AM
Do I need to start playing that Journey song, remember the one -
DON'T STOP, BELIEVING......
Cheesy, but true. Things will get better.
The glass is half full!

slobes
07-27-2006, 12:45 AM
We will clinch the wild card with at least 4 games left in the regular season. During those last 4 days, we may have a chance to overtake Detroit for the division.

Nellie_Fox
07-27-2006, 01:26 AM
My honest answer is that I have no damn clue whether the Sox will be in the playoffs or not. I certainly didn't forsee the way July has gone, so how can I figure out how August and September will go?

Why has Buehrle suddenly become so hittable? Could it go back the other way just as mysteriously? I don't know the answer to either question.

Why are the Sox hitters no longer able to capitalize on runners in scoring position with fewer than two outs? I have no idea. This is the same team that all the "experts" were saying was the best in baseball as recently as three or four weeks ago. I've followed White Sox baseball every year since I was about 5 years old, but I've never earned my living based on my knowledge. Those "experts" have, and yet they are now befuddled.

I've seen good Sox teams go nowhere, I've seen teams expected to be mediocre suddenly surprise everyone. If I know anything, it's that I don't know anything.

Except that is that this is no fun at all.

socaljeff
07-27-2006, 01:37 AM
I don't know how you "think wildcard" or "think division". They just have to win games. Whether they get back in the division race will depend a whole lot on what the Twins and Tigers do, which they have no control over unless they're playing them. Just keep winning games and things will take care of themselves one way or another.


Just "keep" winning games or "start" winning games??

whitesoxfan1986
07-27-2006, 01:38 AM
I really can't say whether the Sox will make the playoffs or not. the last 2 months are stacking up to be pretty tough. 9 vs the Twins, 10 vs. the Tigers 9 vs the Yankees, Carmines and Blue Jays, 4 vs the Angels and 3 vs Oakland. That is over half of our remaining games against teams that are in 1st place or over .500.(36 games out of 62 remaining) also 4 vs Seattle who is not a pushover by any regards(only 3 games out of 1st) the good news: 3 vs Tampa Bay(oh wait they own us) 7 vs Cleveland(they've thrown in the towel) and 10 vs KC(YAY!!) and 3 vs the O's. It's an uphill battle, but can be done.

ZombieRob
07-27-2006, 01:45 AM
We here are all true sox fans, and though I am still hoping that we turn this around, I want the other fans here to dig deep inside and post your true feelings on whether or not the we will make the playoffs. Here's my opinion:

Again I preface this by saying that im not quitting on this team, but I just dont see the magic that was there last year. We are not playing fundamentaly sound baseball, and thats the main reason we won it all last year. Pitching, great defense, and timely hitting. We are lacking all of those elements. Last year we would have won last nights game. This year we come up short. I just dont think we will make the postseason this year. Let me know what you all think.



I dont see is happening ,To many factors weigh in .One the pitching is brutal .only 2 of the 5 starters have been any good with any consistancy.Two ,The Sox cant execute runs with less then 2 outs and its been happening even when the Sox were winning and it was only a matter of time before it caught up with them. Three,the defense has been shoddy at best with the exception of Crede.and the diffrence IMO the Sox are finding more ways to lose then anytime before.And hoping the Tigers Twins and Yankees is wishful thinking ..And really Torre is doing a great job considering the loses he's taken this year and with an avg pitching staff. I think whats fustrating to us fans is that the Sox are really underachieving and thats the fustrating part of it all .Hope KW has something in mind ,i have faith in him above anyone else in the Sox orgin-I-zation right now .

thomas35forever
07-27-2006, 02:05 AM
I still think we'll make the playoffs one way or another, but they need to show us they want to be there. Hopefully, losing the lead in the Wild Card race will serve as some sort of wake-up call. The way Detroit's been playing, I don't think they're going to lose. What they will do is leave the playoffs early since they've been spoiled almost all year. We need to kick it in to gear soon or here's to going home early.

dcb56
07-27-2006, 02:31 AM
If the starting pitching does not dramatically improve, it won't matter whether or not the Sox make the postseason becuase even if the offense heats up again and carries the team into the playoffs, they will be one and done no matter who they play.

CLR01
07-27-2006, 02:37 AM
99.9% certain of it.

"wrong" sox fan
07-27-2006, 04:42 AM
1st post here:


First of all, even though I am a die hard Red Sox fan I have a great amount of respect for how the White Sox are run. As a fan of baseball it's great to see that one of the weakest div. in baseball (the AL central) has become one of the better ones in a span of only two years. I have very little doubt that the last month of this season as well as future races for October will be more interesting due to the great strides made by the White Sox, the Twins and the Tribe (despite the fact that they've done poorly this year they still have a great young core) in recent years. Now back to the thread:


If you look here you'll see the odds of each team making the play offs:

www.coolstandings.com


As you all can see it lists the white sox chances of appearing in the post season as 22%.

This percent, is calc. by using each teams record and RS vs RA to forecast what each team is likley to do against the teams they play over the rest of the 2006 season.

While interesting to look at these forecasts obvously can not predict injuries or changes in production. So while worth noting, I suspect your beloved White Sox stand a little better chance than 22% in advancing into the post season.

As of the time I am posting this 5 teams are forcasted to win 90 games in the AL with a sixth winning around 88 games, lets look at these top 5.

Det: 68-33 531 RS- 397 RA

While Det has clearly played fantastic they do have some issues that may hurt them down the streatch. 4 of their starters are on pase for 200 innings thus far, one is really old, 2 are really young and one is 28. Of the four only Kenny Rogers has ever gone 200 before. Now while the White Sox had something similar happen last year it is not often that pitchers break through the 200 inning wall with out wearing down early on in their careers. I have faith in Bonderman but Verlander is suspect, as is Kenny Rogers at his current age. Several of Det. pitchers have also gotten by with only average strike out rates, Verlander especially should be some cause to concern. They are listed as a near lock to make the play offs at 98 percent, I tend to agree but would knock that down to around 90.

Boston:61-39 554-480

I am pleased to say that Boston has silenced many of their critics who saw them as an 80 win team this year. After being bounced from the play offs last season because of god awful play and being unlucky enough to run into the hottest team in baseball in the first round they revamped the entire infield. However like last season bad luck and injuries have struck them again. Clement, Wells, Foulke and Wakefield have all gone down with injuries and Boston's current rotation consists of Schilling, Beckett, Lester and what ever crap pitcher they pick up off the waiver wire that week. David Wells is comming back this week and while he could be a great addition to the staff he could also be inaffective. The lack of a back end of the rotation coupled with Lester's crowing pains with control could cause the Bull Pen to fall apart, also on the offensive side of the game Trot Nixon has become old again and Tek is crapping the bed in year 2 of his 4 year deal. They have boston at a 76% to advance, with the amount of home games I'd tend to agree and say the Red Sox are in that ball park, though of course I'm bias.

I'll do the other three teams tomorrow, but it's 4:40 and time to go to bed. Also, forgive any typos or new ways to spell easy words, like I said I'm beat, I'll edit tomorrow.

soxfanatlanta
07-27-2006, 07:26 AM
Assuming that the pitching collectively pulls out of this nose dive - you betcha. If not, then no.

sox1970
07-27-2006, 07:31 AM
Just "keep" winning games or "start" winning games??

Start winning games and then keep winning.

Interesting those coolstandings the troll posted have the Sox at 22% to make the playoffs. I was being generous I guess.

Thome25
07-27-2006, 07:52 AM
The best, most sure-fire way to make the playoffs was for us to win the division. When you go after the division, you're only battling one team for the playoffs.

As of right now, it's looking like a longshot for us to win the Cental Division. We don't control our own destiny in the division race anymore. We have to get some help from Detroit and hope that they have a monumental collapse in order to get back in it.

Our best chance of getting into the postseason is as the wildcard team. That in itself is an extremely tough task because we're not fighting with just one team anymore. There's about 4-5 good teams looking for one playoff spot.

I think we will win the wildcard this year. (the same way Boston did last year.) and if we're in the playoffs who knows what happens from there.

The best way to win the wildcard is to take things one game at a time and win as many of the remaining games on our schedule as we possibly can.

EdHerman12
07-27-2006, 08:07 AM
I believe the Sox will qualify for post season, but as a wild card team. I just don't see Detroit folding the tent. Look for the Sox to play strong against the AL East in the upcoming weeks as Minnesota cools off and that'll be the difference.

GO SOX!

Minnie Me
07-27-2006, 08:19 AM
THE SOX WILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS
The lack of steady starting pitching which is the foundation and core strength of the Sox has let the team down in a big way. This poor performance by the starters has caused the hitters to play with a different mindset to bash the ball to win.
Combine this with the problems involved in coping with the WS success of last year and you set the stage for what has happened this year.
Give Kenny Williams credit for trying to change the mix as he knew this year would bring new challenges for the Sox. Kenny added to what everyone thought was an embarressment of riches by adding Vasquez to an already strong starting staff. Kenny added bench strength in case Tadihito stumbled this year or Crede's back flared up. He has shored up our middle relief issues as well.
WHOLESALE CHANGES ON THE WAY
Kenny and Ozzie must be tearing themselves up with the recent lackluster play of the Sox. They will not sit still. You can anticipate some big changes to be made. If they can't swing anything by the trade deadline then they will wait for next year.
ON THE BUBBLE
There are No Untouchables on this team. Top candidates to be moved are:
Joe Crede
Pods
Garcia
Burhle

Dan H
07-27-2006, 10:03 AM
I don't share the optimisim of most people on this thread. The simple fact is that the starting pitching hasn't been good most of the season, and the offense can't score unless it hits a home run. So I don't think this team is going to the playoffs.

I hold out hope because Detroit and Minnesota will tail off some. But the real key is the Sox turning their own ship around and doing it right now. Lose a couple more series, and they are real history.

1917
07-27-2006, 10:06 AM
Minn can not keep this up all year, they are playing out og their minds, we are in a slump, a bad one, but we have over 2 months to get going, It's going to be tough, but I'm not giving up hope...

simbro
07-27-2006, 10:11 AM
i still think they have a very good chance of making it to the postseason. i see signs of our offense starting to get it back. we have seen some flashes from garcia lately that he might be getting it right, garland has looked really good and contreas has been good most of the year. i will say though that they need to go into baltimore and kc and start to get a run going there.

WMG
07-27-2006, 10:25 AM
3/1 that the sox win the division.
3/1 that the sox win the wildcard.

that puts it somewhere around fity-fity.

MsSoxVixen22
07-27-2006, 10:27 AM
We'll be there. Detroit's fall from grace has yet to come.

soxfan13
07-27-2006, 10:28 AM
definitely make it because of the imminent trade for Soriano:rolleyes:

Flight #24
07-27-2006, 10:55 AM
IMO whether or not they make the playoffs will be deterined ignificantly by the next 2 weeks. Detroit & MIN play each other 6 times, and play other contenders as well (Texas, Toronto). The Sox play the O's & Royals. If they get their act back together, they can either cut the deficit to 4 or so games, or put the same distance between themselves & the Twinks. If come mid-Aug, they're 4 games out of the WC and/or 8-12 out of the division, it's going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough - especially since they'll have come off of a stretch against weaker teams that they didn't dominate.

harwar
07-27-2006, 11:49 AM
I don't think the tigers will slow down much.They remind me of the 2001 mariners who won 116 games because i didn't think either team is as good as the records.
The division race is over,as far as i'm concerned.
The wild-card,however,is wide open for any team who makes a run for it.
I feel that if Mark Buehrle turns back into Mark Buehrle again,then we definitley grab the last playoff spot.

Flight #24
07-27-2006, 12:17 PM
We'll be there. Detroit's fall from grace has yet to come.

It's still early, but the appropriate comparison is the 2005 Sox. Entered August with a substantial lead, and came close to losing it. Of course, that took a combination of the Sox playing horribly and Cleveland playing out of their minds.

Basically, if the Tigers play .500 ball from here on out, the Sox will need to play approx .640 ball. It's possible, but unlikely. And while I see the Tigers tailing off from the current .673 winning%, I don't think it's likely that they'll fall off the table. That means the Sox will need to win at a pretty ridiculous pace to beat them out. Possible - yes, but not likely.

However, the WC is there for the taking, and once you get in - that's all that matters.

But regardless, the key is to just start playing/pitching better and executing on a daily basis. Forget the standings and just play to win the game fo the day.

Jurr
07-27-2006, 12:21 PM
If the Sox make it, they'll have really earned it, as a long fight is in store. They'll be primed for a repeat, because they'll have to get pretty hot to hold off the other teams.

If they don't make it, they just weren't good enough, and it's just another disappointing season.

I have a feeling they're going to make the playoffs.

downstairs
07-27-2006, 12:26 PM
When was the last time the 5th best team (.5 games out ofi being the 3rd best team) in the MLB after 100 games didn't make it?

We're playing fine on balance, and will continue to play well on average.

These things have a way of working themselves out.

Every damn year 70% of the baseball fandom counts out the Yankees and Braves. They make it every year. They're good teams, and good teams end up on top AFTER 162 GAMES.

Look at the overall MLB final standings from the past 10 years. The sheer majority of times ALL the teams at the top make it to the playoffs.

Lip Man 1
07-27-2006, 01:08 PM
Flight:

I agree with you on the schedule part. The Sox simply must take advantage of the next six games.

It's one of the few "easy" sections of the second half schedule and they can't screw it up.

Lip

WinTwins
07-27-2006, 02:17 PM
From a Twins Fan's Perspective:

Many here have already suggested a "regression to the mean" to support a Detroit collapse, but I don't foresee that based on MOST of their players performing at a reasonable increase (Guillen, Pudge, Maggs, Inge). Shelton has already returned to earth and Polanco is actually underperforming. Rogers could stumble down the stretch, but overall, I think they're locked in to first place.

Twins/Sox now are mathematically equal, so it's still too early to call it. The Sox will have another hot streak and the Twins will stub their toe along the way. Not to overstate the obvious, but the trading deadline and injuries will play a huge factor too. Still, I'm optimistic for the Twins in that they have three pitchers that are extremely hot right now. Outside of Garland, the rest of the Sox rotation seems to be slipping. I haven't looked ahead on the schedule, but you guys need a series with KC real bad right now to get things back on track. At the very least, all these divisional games should be pretty intense for the next two+ months.

And as if there weren't enough reasons to cheer against Boston and New York, we're both now chasing them for wild card positioning. I guess fans of both the Sox and Twins have found some common ground. And one final note of interest: Twins/Sox wrap up the season with the final three games September 29-October 1. That could be fun--best wishes Sox fans!

Scottzilla
07-27-2006, 02:31 PM
My heart says they'll win the division in the most amazing race ever and win it all again. but in reality i just hope they make a run at the division and make the playoffs. otherwise its still a ways to go

STRETCH!!!
07-27-2006, 02:57 PM
IMO whether or not they make the playoffs will be deterined ignificantly by the next 2 weeks. Detroit & MIN play each other 6 times, and play other contenders as well (Texas, Toronto). The Sox play the O's & Royals. If they get their act back together, they can either cut the deficit to 4 or so games, or put the same distance between themselves & the Twinks. If come mid-Aug, they're 4 games out of the WC and/or 8-12 out of the division, it's going to be tough. Not impossible, but tough - especially since they'll have come off of a stretch against weaker teams that they didn't dominate.

Have to agree. There is still more than 33% of the season to play, and lots can and will happen. MN and Detroit could both stink it up, could both play .500, or could both keep winning big. Same with the Sox.

Right now we are in a virtual tie for the wild card, so it silly to suggest that it is beyond the realm of possiblities for us to get in - every team has stretches where they look bad and there is no reason to believe that this isn't our stink stretch and we truly are an elite team.

If we can right the ship over the next two weeks (i.e., have a winning record), I think we will be in the hunt the rest of the way. However, if we have another 2-10 spurt, I don't think we'll be able to bounce back and catch all the other three teams vieing for the wild card spot.

The only thing I am certain of is that the wild card will be in play until the last week of the season. I cannot see Minnesota or the NYY running away with it. Most likely, one one of the following teams - Detroit, MN, Boston, NYY, TOR, and us - will not be within the hunt for either a division title or a wild card birth come Sept. 1.

kitekrazy
07-27-2006, 03:04 PM
You're really ready to declare Detroit's starting rotation the second best in 30 years with 40% of the season remaining?

You're either Nostradamus or Nostradumbass.

I'm certain that a month ago you were making posts about how Garland would finish this year with a 7+ ERA, too. You were probably all about DFAing Anderson.

Well I will stoop down to your level of civility since you are demonstrating that you are the 2nd part of the 2nd Nostra in your spew.

You turned a few words into many. Great imagination.

minutia
07-27-2006, 03:22 PM
I was in Vegas last week for a trade show and a guy I was talking to in the sport book told me the following. That enough already with last year. This team is different, especially when you look in centerfield. The Sox will be just fine, provided they turn around this slump. I know this is overstating the obvious but the first part of his statement I think rings very true. I personally think they will make it but it will be a tough road. I think seeing how they fair in Baltimore will be a good start. Any way I bet on a 5/1 shot that they win it all.

sox1970
07-27-2006, 03:33 PM
If the Sox win the same rate of games when they have a quality start, they will need 36 quality starts in the last 62 games to win 97 games.

That's 58% of the remaining games. Over the past 50 games, the Sox had a 38% quality start conversion rate.

So basically, each pitcher will need to average 7 quality starts in their last 12-13 starts to win the wildcard. Not an exact science, but a good estimation.

credefan24
07-27-2006, 03:35 PM
The Chicago White Sox will win the 2006 Central Divison.


Book it. Dan-o.

slavko
07-27-2006, 07:26 PM
It may be time to remind ourselves what the above-named psychologist thinks are the 5 stages of dealing with disappointment:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Which one are you?

I'm not saying this thing can't turn around, but it's going to take more than one flyball lost in the sun.

Scottzilla
07-27-2006, 08:12 PM
It may be time to remind ourselves what the above-named psychologist thinks are the 5 stages of dealing with disappointment:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Which one are you?

I'm not saying this thing can't turn around, but it's going to take more than one flyball lost in the sun.

LOL I think she has since been discredited.

ChiSoxFan7
07-27-2006, 09:30 PM
From a Twins Fan's Perspective:

And one final note of interest: Twins/Sox wrap up the season with the final three games September 29-October 1. That could be fun--best wishes Sox fans!

i think its likely the winner of this series wins the wildcard

p.s. wintwins = class act. here's one for him:gulp:

whitesoxfan14
07-27-2006, 10:08 PM
right now i think we're 50/50 on making the playoffs. These guys just have to get their heads in the game...because a lot of the time, it doesn't seem like some of the players are all there. I don't think we don't have a chance though. they need to conjour up some of the that magic, and we'll be fine.

Lip Man 1
07-27-2006, 11:09 PM
35 wins and we're in.

Lip

BadBobbyJenks
07-27-2006, 11:22 PM
There is a 95% chance of us making the playoffs.


the 5% would be a serious injury. Folks we are seeing the worst of our season in july. I look forward to a fantastic August and September

Ol' No. 2
07-27-2006, 11:37 PM
BP says the Sox have a 32% chance of making the playoffs...which isn't too bad considering last year they said we had a 80% chance of winning the division the day after they had clinched.:rolleyes:

iwcup
07-27-2006, 11:52 PM
Way too early and way too many divisional games to be played, (tigers v. twins will be big)

I think the whole no more trades annoucement from KW will get the players off the eggshells which will get most of the antsy fans off the ledge...

one game at a time...

SOXfnNlansing
07-28-2006, 12:40 AM
1st post here:


If you look here you'll see the odds of each team making the play offs:

www.coolstandings.com (http://www.coolstandings.com)
.

any site that has the flubs with a .1% chance of making the playoffs is not credible

palehozenychicty
07-28-2006, 02:22 AM
35 wins and we're in.

Lip

I'm thinking 37.

PKalltheway
07-28-2006, 03:15 AM
The Sox will get in, but they have to have at least 95 wins. They can do it.:cool:

Grzegorz
07-28-2006, 05:56 AM
The 'Big Three' spoke with KW and let him know they have enough to get to the playoffs.

OK, lets watch the last half of the season and find out. If the pitchers pitch and the White Sox get more aggressive on the basepaths by stealing, hitting & running, sacrificing, defense (BA in CF) and if they run the bases smarter (Cora included) they'll be right there.

Do the little things like last year and the added offense should get you to the playoffs even though the Twins are a juggernaut with the best pitching staff since the 1971 Orioles.

sox1970
07-28-2006, 06:47 AM
35 wins and we're in.

Lip

94 wins will not win the wildcard. It'll be at least 96, but possibly 97 or 98. Interleague dominance by the AL will drive up the wildcard number. I'm saying the Sox need to go 38-24 the rest of the season to win the wildcard.

slavko
07-28-2006, 12:13 PM
LOL I think she has since been discredited.

There are other viewpoints than hers and not everyone goes through all 5 stages, but discredited is a tad strong.

Lip Man 1
07-28-2006, 12:28 PM
I'll take my chances with 94 wins and let the chips fall where they may.

Given the difficulty of the Sox second half schedule, the way they finish on the road, only 11 September home games and the 2-10 start, getting 96 or 97 wins may not be makeable.

Lip

iwcup
07-28-2006, 12:32 PM
94 wins will not win the wildcard. It'll be at least 96, but possibly 97 or 98. Interleague dominance by the AL will drive up the wildcard number. I'm saying the Sox need to go 38-24 the rest of the season to win the wildcard.

Yeah, but what about the fact that we still have 10 against Det, 9 with minny, and they have 10 against each other. Then add that its a 3 team race in the east, the number to clinch the WC will come down with the 6 teams beating the crap out of each other...

Ol' No. 2
07-28-2006, 12:38 PM
Yeah, but what about the fact that we still have 10 against Det, 9 with minny, and they have 10 against each other. Then add that its a 3 team race in the east, the number to clinch the WC will come down with the 6 teams beating the crap out of each other...You can analyze this until your head hurts. Last year everyone was sure the Indians would win the WC. This is baseball. Stuff happens. It's way too early to have any idea how this is going to play out.

jenn2080
07-28-2006, 12:47 PM
You can analyze this until your head hurts. Last year everyone was sure the Indians would win the WC. This is baseball. Stuff happens. It's way too early to have any idea how this is going to play out.



:cheers:

jdm2662
07-28-2006, 12:58 PM
Cleveland was unstoppable for six weeks last season, and there was no way they would not be in the playoffs. A 1-5 finish prevented that. Baseball is a funny game, and we have no idea what's going to happen. After the Sox had a 15 game lead on August 1st, there was no way they were going to miss the playoffs. Then, everyone was for certain they were going to choke when the lead went down to 1.5 in the final two weeks. The Sox got it together, and the rest is history, to the dismay of many who where proven wrong.