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View Full Version : Stop counting on the Tigers to lose


Frater Perdurabo
07-21-2006, 10:46 PM
This is a message for Sox fans (including myself):

Do not pin all your hopes for the Sox to win the division based on an expectation that the Tigers will tank in August and September.

The Tigers have had excellent hitting, fantastic pitching, play sufficient defense and most importantly, are playing with supreme confidence. There's nothing to indicate this will change. Overtaking the Tigers will be an uphill climb.

This is not a white flag; I still believe the Sox can win the division. But if they do, it's going to be because they get hot for an extended stretch. The Sox will have to win it (as it should be), because I don't think the Tigers are going to do anything to "lose" it.

Tiger23
07-21-2006, 11:34 PM
Good post. The further we get into the season, the more I see that this line of thinking is right. Having gone through the tough times as a Tiger fan, it has been tough to throw my hopes at a team just because they show some promise. I'm sure many others feel this way as well. We just assume that there is going to be a let down. However, they continually prove that they are worthy.

The White Sox are certainly far from out of it, as you guys very well know. However, I do agree that if they do catch the Tigers, it will be due to a tremendous hot streak, and not from a large slip from the Tigers. They just don't look like they are going to let up. I hope I'm right about that.

TheOldRoman
07-21-2006, 11:41 PM
I disagree with you, and I think the Tigers will drop off significantly, starting with the rotation. However, I am not worrying about the Tigers or counting on them to lose. The White Sox are still the best team in baseball, whether they realize it or not. They have 2+ months of ball left, and they have TEN more games against the Tigers. If the Sox turn it around, and play their game, they will win the division. I don't care what Detroit does, this is ours to win or lose.

beckett21
07-21-2006, 11:42 PM
If the Tigers and their fans want to assume they have the division wrapped up, let them. Let me be the first to congratulate them on their triumph.

Fact is, they don't.

Not by a longshot.

Lip Man 1
07-21-2006, 11:51 PM
Roman:

But unfortunately the Sox have now reached the point where they have to take 8 of the 10 remaining games (or better) head to head with Detroit to pull it off.

That's going to be difficult considering the Tigers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings don't you think?

I think it's now a situation where Detroit can lose the division (by imploding) but the Sox can't win it. If the Tigers just play .500 ball they take it.

That doesn't mean the Sox can't get into the post-season via wild card and personally I don't care how they get in...just get in.

Lip

TheOldRoman
07-22-2006, 12:00 AM
Lip - If the Tigers play .500 ball the rest of the way, we will win the division by a good margin. We would have to take 8 of 10 if both teams have the same record from here on out, but I don't think that will happen.

Either way, if the White Sox come out of their slump soon, and play their game, they will be in the playoffs. I think we can agree on that.

TornLabrum
07-22-2006, 12:02 AM
We never should have counted on the Tigers to lose. We should be counting on the Sox to win. If they do, the rest will take care of itself.

TheOldRoman
07-22-2006, 12:11 AM
We never should have counted on the Tigers to lose. We should be counting on the Sox to win. If they do, the rest will take care of itself.
:thumbsup:

oeo
07-22-2006, 12:53 AM
This is a message for Sox fans (including myself):

Do not pin all your hopes for the Sox to win the division based on an expectation that the Tigers will tank in August and September.

The Tigers have had excellent hitting, fantastic pitching, play sufficient defense and most importantly, are playing with supreme confidence. There's nothing to indicate this will change. Overtaking the Tigers will be an uphill climb.

This is not a white flag; I still believe the Sox can win the division. But if they do, it's going to be because they get hot for an extended stretch. The Sox will have to win it (as it should be), because I don't think the Tigers are going to do anything to "lose" it.
Well...tough times (like we're going through now) are bound to happen to every team. So...why not? If they keep it up, good for them, there's no one that could beat them in a divisional race then. But, of course, the Sox still have to win. If they don't win, they're not going anywhere, but if they do then they will win the division because the Tigers will lose some games. I know it's hard to believe, but they really will. So, in conclusion, I guess I agree with you. :tongue:

Nellie_Fox
07-22-2006, 01:02 AM
I don't expect the Tigers to tank, but I do expect them to have a losing streak. Pretty much every team does. I just don't see them winning 110 games, which is their current pace.

The big question is, will the Sox take advantage and make up a bunch of ground when the Tigers' slump comes?

oeo
07-22-2006, 01:10 AM
I don't expect the Tigers to tank, but I do expect them to have a losing streak. Pretty much every team does. I just don't see them winning 110 games, which is their current pace.

The big question is, will the Sox take advantage and make up a bunch of ground when the Tigers' slump comes?
Well, the Sox are on pace to win 99 games right now. And IMO, they haven't played close to the baseball they can play, all year. So...I think they will end up winning 100+ games by the end. And that will get them into the postseason, and probably (IMO) beat out the Tigers for the division.

Tiger23
07-22-2006, 01:17 AM
If the Tigers and their fans want to assume they have the division wrapped up, let them. Let me be the first to congratulate them on their triumph.

Fact is, they don't.

Not by a longshot.

Where have you read any Tiger or Tiger fan state that Detroit has the division wrapped up? Trolls don't count. Fact is the Tiger fans are starting to realize that the team actually does have a chance to take the Central. I don't think it goes any further than that.

Mr. White Sox
07-22-2006, 01:21 AM
Practically every Tigers pitcher has pitched above their previous numbers. I see downturns for: Nate Robertson, Zach Miner (will be sent down once the mediocre Maroth comes back), and Kenny Rogers.

Bonderman and Verlander are electric enough to carry a rotation, however, and I fully expect this race to come down to the wire heading into October, with the White Sox playing catch-up most of the way.

Twins Win
07-22-2006, 01:46 AM
There are still a lot of games within the division. Anything can happen. I think KC can even play spoiler. They've played pretty good as of late and don't have anything to really play for. That can be a dangerous combination.

oeo
07-22-2006, 01:51 AM
There are still a lot of games within the division. Anything can happen. I think KC can even play spoiler. They've played pretty good as of late and don't have anything to really play for. That can be a dangerous combination.

Well...we haven't exactly played so hot against them all year anyway.

oeo
07-22-2006, 01:54 AM
Practically every Tigers pitcher has pitched above their previous numbers. I see downturns for: Nate Robertson, Zach Miner (will be sent down once the mediocre Maroth comes back), and Kenny Rogers.

Bonderman and Verlander are electric enough to carry a rotation, however, and I fully expect this race to come down to the wire heading into October, with the White Sox playing catch-up most of the way.

I don't know if we'll be playing catchup the majority of the remaining games. Look at it this way, all we have to do is gain 3-4 games on them by August 11 (which is definately a possibility), and as long as we can win that series, we're right on their heels again. 6.5 games is not that hard to overcome.

slobes
07-22-2006, 12:11 PM
I am expecting the Tigers to have a stretch where they go like 1-5 or 2-7. However, we can not base our playoff chances on that because even if the Tigers do slump, the Sox must still take advantage of it. If Detroit loses 5 out of 6 games but we have a 4 game losing streak during that span, it'll show that we were given the opportunity but we didn't do anything with it.

Ol' No. 2
07-22-2006, 12:28 PM
Roman:

But unfortunately the Sox have now reached the point where they have to take 8 of the 10 remaining games (or better) head to head with Detroit to pull it off.

That's going to be difficult considering the Tigers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings don't you think?

I think it's now a situation where Detroit can lose the division (by imploding) but the Sox can't win it. If the Tigers just play .500 ball they take it.

That doesn't mean the Sox can't get into the post-season via wild card and personally I don't care how they get in...just get in.

LipYou left out the key assumption in your math: that the Sox and Tigers keep pace in the other 57 games. If the Sox can make up just four games in those 57 (not exactly an overwhelming feat), they would need to take only 6 of the 10 H2H.

Lip Man 1
07-22-2006, 12:56 PM
No. 2:

The difference is (in my opinion) the fact that so far the Sox have struggled against teams with losing records / .500 records while the Tigers have butchered them. That's where the math difference comes in.

I can't explain why although a beat writer told me part of the reason was because and I'm paraphrasing here that the Sox thought 'all they had to do was toss their gloves on the field to beat K.C.' The individual also said the Sox lost games to Tampa because Ozzie was outmanaged and that no team should ever lose a game to a Mike Hargrove managed club.

So the Sox simply can't afford to lose any more games to bad teams and they still have a number of games left vs. K.C., Tampa, Seattle and Cleveland.

And even 'just' having to take 6 of 10 against a probable playoff club isn't as easy as you make it sound.

We'll see.

Lip

jdm2662
07-22-2006, 01:01 PM
I certainly want the division, but as already stated, just get in. It's almost the end of July, and I'm still waiting for the Tigers to implode while they keep winning even more. The Sox have to win not worry about anyone else. Even if the Sox get in, with the pitching they've had lately, they aren't going anywhere. Yes, they have the talent, but that means nothing. Wins and losses is all that matters. I don't expect the Sox to continue to play like this, so I think they should be ok. Of course, what I think means nothing...

Mohoney
07-22-2006, 01:08 PM
I think it's now a situation where Detroit can lose the division (by imploding) but the Sox can't win it. If the Tigers just play .500 ball they take it.

I'm pretty close to agreeing with this (and if we were to lose another 2 games on them by next Sunday, I would probably call it a lock), but I'm not quite there yet. If they play .500, that would put them at 98 wins.

If we went 40-27, we would finish in a tie with 98 wins, and 40-27 is just a shade under .600 ball, which we are very capable of doing.

I'm sure that if we both finished with 98 wins, we would both qualify for the playoffs, and if we went 40-27 while they went 33-33, we would pretty much have to finish with the better record head-to-head, thus winning the division, even if Baseball Prospectus states that it's only an 88% chance.

MarySwiss
07-22-2006, 01:17 PM
I'm pretty close to agreeing with this (and if we were to lose another 2 games on them by next Sunday, I would probably call it a lock), but I'm not quite there yet. If they play .500, that would put them at 98 wins.

If we went 40-27, we would finish in a tie with 98 wins, and 40-27 is just a shade under .600 ball, which we are very capable of doing.

I'm sure that if we both finished with 98 wins, we would both qualify for the playoffs, and if we went 40-27 while they went 33-33, we would pretty much have to finish with the better record head-to-head, thus winning the division, even if Baseball Prospectus states that it's only an 88% chance.

Well, on any given day, there's a 99.99999...% chance that BP doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. :rolleyes:

Not sure that should be teal.

Mohoney
07-22-2006, 01:23 PM
Practically every Tigers pitcher has pitched above their previous numbers. I see downturns for: Nate Robertson, Zach Miner (will be sent down once the mediocre Maroth comes back), and Kenny Rogers.

Bonderman and Verlander are electric enough to carry a rotation, however, and I fully expect this race to come down to the wire heading into October, with the White Sox playing catch-up most of the way.

I agree with Robertson and Miner's spots cooling off, but I honestly think that Rogers will still be steady in the second half (probably somewhere about 3 or 4 games over .500), and I see 3 guys in their rotation that won't go away.

I think that the key is their bullpen performance in the 2nd half. If their bullpen cools off (Todd Jones blows about 5 saves, Joel Zumaya comes down to Earth, Jamie Walker stops getting EVERYBODY out, and Jason Grilli goes back to being Jason Grilli), a prolonged stretch of .500 or worse play suddenly becomes very possible.

Mohoney
07-22-2006, 01:25 PM
Well, on any given day, there's a 99.99999...% chance that BP doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. :rolleyes:

Not sure that should be teal.

Remember last year, after we clinched, and BP spewed that garbage? That was powerful stupid.

It was good for a laugh, though.

PKalltheway
07-22-2006, 01:25 PM
The Tigers will more than likely hit a slow stretch, but that doesn't mean it will be huge and devastating. The White Sox just need to keep winning and let everything take care of itself. If not, we could be in third place faster than a Bobby Jenks fastball because the Twins are gaining ground QUICKLY.:o:
The Sox just need to pull their heads out of their asses and play good baseball. I'm sure a tongue-lashing from Ozzie will come pretty soon if they continue to play like this, and I think that will be just the kick start they need.

Scottiehaswheels
07-22-2006, 01:27 PM
Another thing to consider... Look at how many of the Tigers have played in all/nearly all their games this season already.... I count 5... August/September could be very rough on those guys since they aren't well rested.... In contrast we have 2 guys that have played at least 90 games.... Especially in the first year of amphetimines being banned? They're gonna come into a rough spell of that I have no doubt... We'll see more of their bench in August/September and there is no way their bench has as much depth as ours...

Fenway
07-22-2006, 02:27 PM
We never should have counted on the Tigers to lose. We should be counting on the Sox to win. If they do, the rest will take care of itself.

Right now the bigger concern is not letting the Twins pass the White Sox. The upcoming series is suddenly huge.

TornLabrum
07-22-2006, 06:01 PM
Right now the bigger concern is not letting the Twins pass the White Sox. The upcoming series is suddenly huge.

No, as I said before, the thing to worry about is the SOX WINNING. The rest will take care of itself.

I like to spank my tiger
07-23-2006, 08:38 AM
I made the same mistake talking about the White Sox last year. At some point you have to realize that 6.5 games is not a hole that can be automatically climbed out of.

oeo
07-23-2006, 08:48 AM
I made the same mistake talking about the White Sox last year. At some point you have to realize that 6.5 games is not a hole that can be automatically climbed out of.
:rolleyes:

I made the same mistake talking about the Sox last year too. I thought there was no way they would go on a extended losing streak. Well...the Tigers will, no matter how much you don't want to believe it. All the Tigers did to get this lead, was take advantage of some poor play by the Sox...when the Tigers play poorly, the Sox will get that back.

No one said it's automatic, it's a couple games here and a few games there, and they're right there. Don't think that 6.5 games is a very comfortable lead...we thought 15 in August was pretty comfortable and the Indians made it a little too close for comfort. And honestly, the Tigers haven't even played well since the break...their record says otherwise because they've played the Royals and a struggling Sox team, that both could have just as easily taken 5 of those 7 games. Your schedule will catch up to you. Don't worry about the Sox, worry about the Tigers.

MarySwiss
07-23-2006, 08:51 AM
I made the same mistake talking about the White Sox last year. At some point you have to realize that 6.5 games is not a hole that can be automatically climbed out of.
At some point, you have to realize that you haven't won a damn thing yet.

And you DO realize that this is a White Sox fan site, right?

I like to spank my tiger
07-23-2006, 08:59 AM
:rolleyes:

I made the same mistake talking about the Sox last year too. I thought there was no way they would go on a extended losing streak. Well...the Tigers will, no matter how much you don't want to believe it. All the Tigers did to get this lead, was take advantage of some poor play by the Sox...when the Tigers play poorly, the Sox will get that back.

No one said it's automatic, it's a couple games here and a few games there, and they're right there. Don't think that 6.5 games is a very comfortable lead...we thought 15 in August was pretty comfortable and the Indians made it a little too close for comfort. And honestly, the Tigers haven't even played well since the break...their record says otherwise because they've played the Royals and a struggling Sox team, that both could have just as easily taken 5 of those 7 games. Your schedule will catch up to you. Don't worry about the Sox, worry about the Tigers.

I don't think 6.5 games is comfortable. Just pointing out that this assumption that the Tigers will flop doesn't seem to be valid at all...

Scottiehaswheels
07-23-2006, 09:02 AM
I don't think 6.5 games is comfortable. Just pointing out that this assumption that the Tigers will flop doesn't seem to be valid at all....... How many days off has your infield had? Seriously man... In the new day and age with no greenies you think you guys can keep up this rate of winning without resting your players? If they do I'll tip my cap cuz they're pretty much supermen if thats the case...

oeo
07-23-2006, 09:11 AM
I don't think 6.5 games is comfortable. Just pointing out that this assumption that the Tigers will flop doesn't seem to be valid at all...
They won't "flop", they will fall back to Earth. The luck of the infield singles will run out, your pitchers will tire. There's no way that team is better than the Sox (they didn't prove a damn thing last week, other than prove to me that they aren't as good as their record indicates). If the Sox offense was not currently crapping their pants, they would have blown Kenny Rogers out...he did not pitch that well, the Sox made him look like he did. The only guy I was impressed with was Bonderman. I will be quite disappointed if they lose the division to you guys.

Cuck the Fubs
07-23-2006, 09:19 AM
I don't think 6.5 games is comfortable. Just pointing out that this assumption that the Tigers will flop doesn't seem to be valid at all...

Not valid based on what? Prior Tigers teams?:?:

The Sox almost blew a 15 game lead last year, I'd harldy say a 6.5 game lead with the talent the Sox have is not to be overcome.

The Tigers have played well so far, but they will hit thier "bump in the road" sooner or later. The key thing is will the Sox take advantage of it, or let it go to waste? If the latter rings true, the Tigers will win the division.

tigersfan25
07-23-2006, 05:10 PM
Believe it or not, the Tigers have had "bumps in the road" so far...

MarySwiss
07-23-2006, 05:33 PM
Believe it or not, the Tigers have had "bumps in the road" so far...

Stick around. It gets bumpier from here on in. :cool:

kobo
07-23-2006, 05:42 PM
Believe it or not, the Tigers have had "bumps in the road" so far...
Not really, at least not anything significant over the last 6 weeks. The Tigers have lost 4 games in a row 2 different times this season, the last time being May 28-May 31. They have lost 3 in a row only 2 times this season, the last time being June 4-June 7. From May 28-June 7 they went 2-8, their worst stretch of the season by far. Since June 8 the longest losing streak they have had is 2 games. So while there have been "bumps" they haven't been that significant, and they will hit one eventually.

MrRoboto83
07-23-2006, 07:42 PM
This is a message for Sox fans (including myself):

Do not pin all your hopes for the Sox to win the division based on an expectation that the Tigers will tank in August and September.

The Tigers have had excellent hitting, fantastic pitching, play sufficient defense and most importantly, are playing with supreme confidence. There's nothing to indicate this will change. Overtaking the Tigers will be an uphill climb.

This is not a white flag; I still believe the Sox can win the division. But if they do, it's going to be because they get hot for an extended stretch. The Sox will have to win it (as it should be), because I don't think the Tigers are going to do anything to "lose" it.

Perhaps I like to wishful think.:D: I expect the Tigers to lose everyday.

Tiger23
07-23-2006, 07:46 PM
.... How many days off has your infield had? Seriously man... In the new day and age with no greenies you think you guys can keep up this rate of winning without resting your players? If they do I'll tip my cap cuz they're pretty much supermen if thats the case...

I think you're grasping if your counting on tired Tiger players to allow the Sox to catch them. I think Mr. Leyland is keeping an eye on things, and I imagine he isn't too interested in running his players into the ground.

beckett21
07-23-2006, 08:21 PM
I think you're grasping if your counting on tired Tiger players to allow the Sox to catch them. I think Mr. Leyland is keeping an eye on things, and I imagine he isn't too interested in running his players into the ground.

Good.

I look forward to the Sox beating the Tigers at full strentgh. No excuses.

P.S.--I wouldn't worry about the infielders getting tired either. The pitchers, OTOH...

Tiger23
07-23-2006, 09:02 PM
Good.

I look forward to the Sox beating the Tigers at full strentgh. No excuses.

P.S.--I wouldn't worry about the infielders getting tired either. The pitchers, OTOH...

This is a good point, as it would be a shame for this race to be negatively effected by an injury, and I'm glad to see a Sox fan say the same thing. However, it seems you contradicted yourself with the line about pitching (though I agree it is a concern). So I'm curious, would you like a Tiger starter to go down, or do you really mean what you said?

beckett21
07-23-2006, 09:16 PM
This is a good point, as it would be a shame for this race to be negatively effected by an injury, and I'm glad to see a Sox fan say the same thing. However, it seems you contradicted yourself with the line about pitching (though I agree it is a concern). So I'm curious, would you like a Tiger starter to go down, or do you really mean what you said?

No, I don't want anyone to go down.

I would just be very surprised to see the Tigers' pitching staff in general continue at their current pace as the season wears on. They are throwing a lot of innings. I expect them to tire.

I do not wish any injuries on any one of them. I just think that they are going to run out of gas.

Of course, they have continued to prove me wrong so far. That's why they play the games I guess.

Tragg
07-23-2006, 11:11 PM
It's not like we can do anything about it anyway. We can't win this if Detroit doesn't lose, so that's part of the package of winning this division. Of course us winning is of primary concern.

tstrike2000
07-24-2006, 12:26 AM
Troll City in here.

TornLabrum
07-24-2006, 01:04 AM
Troll City in here.

Believe me, if there were trolling going on, the trolls would be homeless.

tstrike2000
07-24-2006, 07:59 AM
Believe me, if there were trolling going on, the trolls would be homeless.

True, you guys do a great job patrolling this site since I started posting in here in '04. Just seems like a lot of Tiger fans popping out of the woodwork.

Tiger23
07-24-2006, 09:40 AM
No, I don't want anyone to go down.

I would just be very surprised to see the Tigers' pitching staff in general continue at their current pace as the season wears on. They are throwing a lot of innings. I expect them to tire.

I do not wish any injuries on any one of them. I just think that they are going to run out of gas.

Of course, they have continued to prove me wrong so far. That's why they play the games I guess.

Good deal. You may be right. I don't believe there is a Tiger fan out there who expected their run of pitching to last this long. We shall see.

Railsplitter
07-24-2006, 10:11 AM
Frater P. (if I may call you that), TornLabrum, you're both talking my language!

Yesterday I dug up my Street & Smith's preview and discovered that six of the Tigers' last nine games are against Kansas City. The Sox should take matters into thier own hands and not depend on a Detroit collapse for taking the division.

viagracat
07-24-2006, 11:17 AM
Frater P. (if I may call you that), TornLabrum, you're both talking my language!

Yesterday I dug up my Street & Smith's preview and discovered that six of the Tigers' last nine games are against Kansas City. The Sox should take matters into thier own hands and not depend on a Detroit collapse for taking the division.

Right. As I said before; all the Sox can do is take care of their own business. If they win 6 of 10; 13 of 20, etc from here on out, they're in the playoffs. If they catch Detroit, great. But for the most part, it's out of our hands. Hope for a cooloff by Detroit, but don't count on it. The players aren't.