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getonbckthr
06-16-2006, 04:50 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2485721
Some interesting comments.

dagame2005
06-16-2006, 05:14 PM
The only guy on that list that I would just love to have is Carl Crawford. Unfortunately the Devil Rays always think their players are worth about triple the market value. That being said, if they want some minor league pitching for Crawford, they can have it.

Ol' No. 2
06-16-2006, 05:38 PM
So who is going to get traded?

Too early to answer that question with any certainty. But all of these players will almost certainly be out there (or are already):

Pitchers: Jeff Weaver, Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, John Thomson, Jason Johnson, Kyle Lohse, Victor Santos, Kip Wells, Oliver Perez, Odalis Perez, Glendon Rusch, Ramon Ortiz, Jeremy Affeldt, Elmer Dessens, Roberto Hernandez, Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, Chris Reitsma, Rudy Seanez, Joe Borowski.

Hitters: Craig Wilson, Jose Guillen, Juan Pierre, Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff, Shannon Stewart, Rondell White, Mark Grudzielanek, Reggie Sanders, Tony Graffanino, Matt Stairs, Jay Payton, Bobby Kielty, David Dellucci, Jeff Conine, Kevin Millar, Jeromy Burnitz.Bleh. That's the trouble with having a good team. It gets hard to improve it.

caulfield12
06-16-2006, 07:41 PM
Ramon Ortiz, Dessens, Roberto Hernandez, Torres (although that contract scares me a little), Reitsma, Seanez and Borowski I am sure are on KW's radar if Riske bombs and Politte doesn't return to form. The good thing is that finding set-up men is a lot easier than replacing the closer, as we have had to do seemingly three seasons in a row.

Kyle Lohse is someone that has a very good arm and maybe they could get him straightened out with a little time. That doesn't mean we can magically fix every pitcher that comes under Cooper's tutelage, but it would be worth a look. Doubt the Royals would want to help us out with Dessens, although new GM Moore might want to get a young prospect back.

Jay Payton would be the best of the outfield options, because he can play CF...all the other options would be LFers who would force us to move Scott to CF, which isn't going to happen, as OG has made abundantly clear. By the way, how many times has Payton been moved in his career...it's quite a bit for player at his age.

Tragg
06-16-2006, 11:53 PM
That list contains the usual suspects: mediocre veterans. You're usually better off playing young players than one of those guys.

Not one player on that list is worth giving up a serious prospect for.

Jay Payton is 34 years old, with 90 career homers and a low OBP ...I'll pass.

Would anyone really add Glendon Rush or Juan PIerre for a stretch drive?

russ99
06-17-2006, 12:01 AM
Would anyone really add Glendon Rush or Juan PIerre for a stretch drive?

I don't know. Maybe the Yankees are that stupid.

RedHeadPaleHoser
06-17-2006, 09:23 AM
Would anyone really add Glendon Rush or Juan PIerre for a stretch drive?

The Cubs did.

Maybe the intent is to play bad to get the draft pick. Oh, wait....

pearso66
06-17-2006, 10:19 AM
Isn't Oliver Perez still young? I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him if he can be had cheap, you put him in the bullpen if Politte continues to have problems, or put him in AAA and hope he returns to the Perez from a couple years ago.

Flight #24
06-17-2006, 11:29 AM
Isn't Oliver Perez still young? I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him if he can be had cheap, you put him in the bullpen if Politte continues to have problems, or put him in AAA and hope he returns to the Perez from a couple years ago.

This is wild speculation, because I know little about the guy except what you see from his numbers and that I've heard his delivery is "violent". But over the past few years, and even in what was a bad 2005, he's generally been pretty good in the early innings but falls off the cliff in the middle.
'05 splits are:

.219 BAA / .344 OBPA innings 1-3
.311BAA / .416 OBPA innings 4-6 :o:
.400BAA / .438 OBPA innings 7-9 :o: :o: (Caution: only 15ABs in this sample)

Also, from looking at the stats, it appears that he gets hit a lot harder in the middle innings which suggests to me that it's something to do with fatigue or maintaining mechanics. All of which sounds like a Thornton-esque Coop special.

If he can bounce back on back to back days, and assuming the Pirates are down on him and he can be had at a reasonable rate, I'd love to get that talent in under Coop. BP for a bit, then work him back to starting as a potential ace-caliber guy in 1-2 years.

Only problem is he looks like he has 5 years of service after '06. So the Sox would have him as arb-eligible for 2007, then he'd hit FA. The good: he's probably not that expensive to resign this year coming off of 1.5 bad years (and hopefully .5 good ones in the 'pen over here).

infohawk
06-17-2006, 02:25 PM
The only guy on that list that I would just love to have is Carl Crawford. Unfortunately the Devil Rays always think their players are worth about triple the market value. That being said, if they want some minor league pitching for Crawford, they can have it. What I'm having a hard time grasping is how the D-Rays expect that a team that would trade for Crawford -- in other words a contender -- would part with two young major league players. If they mean "major league-ready" that's one thing, but I would think that two quality young major league players off of a contender's roster could seriously weaken the contender. I'll add that this may be their opening demand, but wow!

TheGipper
06-18-2006, 10:16 PM
I apologize but haven't seen a thread about this but co-worker said that EPSN insider was talking about a trade with the Whitesox where Torii would be out new CF. I would love this but would depend on who we gave up to get him. My Guess would be Garcia.

oeo
06-18-2006, 10:19 PM
I apologize but haven't seen a thread about this but co-worker said that EPSN insider was talking about a trade with the Whitesox where Torii would be out new CF. I would love this but would depend on who we gave up to get him. My Guess would be Garcia.
Give up pitching when pitching has been our problem?

We already have a centerfielder, he wears #44. And I'm pretty sure there have been quite a few Toriiiii threads.

CLR01
06-18-2006, 10:19 PM
I apologize but haven't seen a thread about this but co-worker said that EPSN insider was talking about a trade with the Whitesox where Torii would be out new CF. I would love this but would depend on who we gave up to get him. My Guess would be Garcia.

The Sox have a Cfer, a very good one. Pass.

Chips
06-18-2006, 10:21 PM
Here's one (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=71232&highlight=torii+hunter)

And another (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=70855&highlight=torii+hunter)

Craig Grebeck
06-18-2006, 11:17 PM
Will someone please explain what is so special about Carl Crawford? He has zero plate discipline, and I believe he had the lowest pitches per at bat last season in the majors. His IsoD was .30 last year, and that's absolutely miserable for anyone, especially someone expected to lead off. Yeah, he's fast. Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford). Although his IsoP has shot up in recent years, he still needs to improve upon his discipline, otherwise he will cost whatever team overpays for him (Angels?) a lot of runs.

Adding him would cost (at least) McCarthy, and that by itself wouldn't be worth it. If the Angels are willing to part with a power pitcher like Santana, we'd better be prepared to give up McCarthy and possibly Fields. I could easily see the Angels giving up Kennedy/Santana, and then watch the Rays flip Kennedy for a B level prospect.

We need bullpen help, and any one of the three Pirate relievers would be worth it. I wouldn't mind parting with a guy like Jerry Owens if it meant getting a solid reliever in return.

Erik The Red
06-18-2006, 11:37 PM
Will someone please explain what is so special about Carl Crawford? He has zero plate discipline, and I believe he had the lowest pitches per at bat last season in the majors. His IsoD was .30 last year, and that's absolutely miserable for anyone, especially someone expected to lead off. Yeah, he's fast. Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford). Although his IsoP has shot up in recent years, he still needs to improve upon his discipline, otherwise he will cost whatever team overpays for him (Angels?) a lot of runs.

Adding him would cost (at least) McCarthy, and that by itself wouldn't be worth it. If the Angels are willing to part with a power pitcher like Santana, we'd better be prepared to give up McCarthy and possibly Fields. I could easily see the Angels giving up Kennedy/Santana, and then watch the Rays flip Kennedy for a B level prospect.

We need bullpen help, and any one of the three Pirate relievers would be worth it. I wouldn't mind parting with a guy like Jerry Owens if it meant getting a solid reliever in return.
I agree with pretty much everything said here.

PalehosePlanet
06-19-2006, 12:04 AM
[If he can bounce back on back to back days, and assuming the Pirates are down on him and he can be had at a reasonable rate, I'd love to get that talent in under Coop. BP for a bit, then work him back to starting as a potential ace-caliber guy in 1-2 years.

Only problem is he looks like he has 5 years of service after '06. So the Sox would have him as arb-eligible for 2007, then he'd hit FA. The good: he's probably not that expensive to resign this year coming off of 1.5 bad years (and hopefully .5 good ones in the 'pen over here).

Make no mistake about it: a lefty who throws 95 and has a wicked curveball and slider would definetly be worth the gamble. He is eratic, true, but much of his ills are due to the fact that he pitches for a horrible team. This would turn out to be another Jason Schmidt, Jon Lieber type of loss for the Pirates where the pitcher blossoms as soon as he leaves them.

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 12:28 AM
Will someone please explain what is so special about Carl Crawford? He has zero plate discipline, and I believe he had the lowest pitches per at bat last season in the majors. His IsoD was .30 last year, and that's absolutely miserable for anyone, especially someone expected to lead off. Yeah, he's fast. Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford). Although his IsoP has shot up in recent years, he still needs to improve upon his discipline, otherwise he will cost whatever team overpays for him (Angels?) a lot of runs.


I have no idea what an IsoD is, nor do I want to know.

I'm guessing you're a stathead, which would explain why you don't think highly of Crawford because he's more of a toolsy player. No, he isn't a very patient hitter. But he's about as fast as they come and he's only 24. A lot of people believe he will continue to improve his power numbers. In his three full season in the majors, Crawford has hit 5, 11 and 15 home runs respectively. He already has 10 this year, so it looks like he will continue to improve those numbers. His defense has improved each year.

So, to recap, he has 50+ steal speed. He could become a 25-30 HR a year guy. He has hit for a higher average every year and his defense is ever improving. Oh, and he's only 24! Oh wait, his IsoD is low. Nevermind. He sucks. :rolleyes:

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 12:42 AM
I have no idea what an IsoD is, nor do I want to know.

I'm guessing you're a stathead, which would explain why you don't think highly of Crawford because he's more of a toolsy player. No, he isn't a very patient hitter. But he's about as fast as they come and he's only 24. A lot of people believe he will continue to improve his power numbers. In his three full season in the majors, Crawford has hit 5, 11 and 15 home runs respectively. He already has 10 this year, so it looks like he will continue to improve those numbers. His defense has improved each year.

So, to recap, he has 50+ steal speed. He could become a 25-30 HR a year guy. He has hit for a higher average every year and his defense is ever improving. Oh, and he's only 24! Oh wait, his IsoD is low. Nevermind. He sucks. :rolleyes:
IsoD is OBP-AVG, and is a very good indicator of a player's plate discipline. Yes, he is toolsy, but those tools are useless when he's not taking pitches and drawing walks. I never said he sucked, but I just don't get why people would be willing to part with 2-3 good to great prospects to get a player who is lauded because he is fast. Again, OBP is so much more important for a leadoff hitter than speed. He'd be a nice player to have around, but overpaying for a player like him would be a shot in the foot. Corner outfielders with 25-30 HR power aren't hard to come by, and many of them will not severely damage your farm system.

The point is he's a terrible leadoff hitter but decent 6-7 guy. But because of his speed, most managers would bat him first. If analyzing stats to draw conclusions makes me a stathead, so be it.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 03:23 AM
Will someone please explain what is so special about Carl Crawford? He has zero plate discipline, and I believe he had the lowest pitches per at bat last season in the majors. His IsoD was .30 last year, and that's absolutely miserable for anyone, especially someone expected to lead off. Yeah, he's fast. Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford). Although his IsoP has shot up in recent years, he still needs to improve upon his discipline, otherwise he will cost whatever team overpays for him (Angels?) a lot of runs.

Adding him would cost (at least) McCarthy, and that by itself wouldn't be worth it. If the Angels are willing to part with a power pitcher like Santana, we'd better be prepared to give up McCarthy and possibly Fields. I could easily see the Angels giving up Kennedy/Santana, and then watch the Rays flip Kennedy for a B level prospect.

We need bullpen help, and any one of the three Pirate relievers would be worth it. I wouldn't mind parting with a guy like Jerry Owens if it meant getting a solid reliever in return.

Where do i begin with a response to this post? :rolleyes:

First off Carl Crawford doesn't bat lead off, hes bats second. Now lets compare him to some of his contemporaries this year from both the AL and NL.

Carl Crawford 24, Bats left, LF
AVG .315 | HR 10 | RBI 36 | OBP .356 | SLG .498 | #P/PA 3.56(up .34) | IsoP .183 | BB/SO .55(16/29) | XBH 23 | SB/CS 22/5

Dan Uggla 26, Bats right, 2B
AVG .314 | HR 12 | RBI 42 | OBP .368 | SLG .525 | #P/PA 3.57 | IsoP .211 | BB/SO .44(20/45) | XBH 27 | SB/CS 4/2

Chase Utley 27, Bats left, 2B
AVG .297 | HR 12 | RBI 41 | OBP .364 | SLG .502 | #P/PA 3.97 | IsoP .205 | BB/SO .50(25/50) | XBH 31 | SB/CS 7/3

Tadahito Iguchi 31, Bats right, 2B
AVG .287 | HR 6 | RBI 26 | OBP .340 | SLG .409 | #P/PA 3.84 | IsoP .121 | BB/SO .33(18/56) | XBH 18 | SB/CS 5/3

Now for a comparison with some of the elite.

Pete Rose Cincinnati Reds
Age Year AB H BA SB/CS
22 1963 625 170 .273 13/15
23 1964 516 139 .269 4/10
24 1965 670 209 .312 8/3

518 hits

DJ's personal favorite
Tony Gwynn San Diego Padres
Age Year AB H BA SB/CS
24 1984 606 213 .351 33/18
25 1985 622 197 .317 14/11
26 1986 644 211 .329 37/9

621 hits

Carl Crawford Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Age Year AB H BA SB/CS
22 2003 630 177 .281 55/10
23 2004 626 185 .296 59/15
24 2005 644 194 .301 46/8

556 hits

Crawford has the ability to steal bases successfully at an alarming rate, none of his contemporaries can do that, also he can score from first and stay out of the DP. Much like Scott Podsednik he has the ability to get into a pitchers head and thats beneficial to everyone behind him. Upon comparing him to some of the games elite at their respective ages its very easy to see "what is so special about Carl Crawford". Lastly IsoP aka Isolated Power(Slugging Percentage - Batting Average, for those of you following at home) isn't a very good measure of greatness, esp for Crawford who is a pure hitter, just as an example Ichiro's IsoP in '05 was .133, Carl's was .183.

Next I would gladly deal McCarthy+Fields+Rogowski+Broadway for a potential HOFer in Crawford. While Ks are great they're very over rated, a SO takes far more pitches than any other out, which in turn brings up a SP's pitch count, which in turn makes a manager goto a bullpen faster, thats not a good thing over the course of a 162 game season. I would rather have someone like Jon Garland who when he is on gets a ton of GB outs then a high K guy.

Now with regards to our bullpen. Kenny has acquired Riske for nothing and is sending Cliff down to the farm to make sure he is back on track, if he isn't and Augstin Montero can't perform to the level needed at the show he will make a move.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 04:26 AM
IsoD is OBP-AVG, and is a very good indicator of a player's plate discipline. Yes, he is toolsy, but those tools are useless when he's not taking pitches and drawing walks. I never said he sucked, but I just don't get why people would be willing to part with 2-3 good to great prospects to get a player who is lauded because he is fast. Again, OBP is so much more important for a leadoff hitter than speed. He'd be a nice player to have around, but overpaying for a player like him would be a shot in the foot. Corner outfielders with 25-30 HR power aren't hard to come by, and many of them will not severely damage your farm system.

The point is he's a terrible leadoff hitter but decent 6-7 guy. But because of his speed, most managers would bat him first. If analyzing stats to draw conclusions makes me a stathead, so be it.

it took me a while to complie that data so when i posted it i hadn't seen the responses.

Plate Disciple? yawn!
Here is a great example for you on the sox. AJ is ranked in the top 5 for hitters in the AL who swing at the first pitch, now going by your logic thats bad, but a .322 BA, and .370 OBP, would tell me your logic is wrong. AJ also sees 3.27 pitches per PA. Furthermore with regards to Crawford and AJ, why would need BB when you're constantly getting on base using your bat? The Oakland and Beane philosophy of seeing more pitches is very flawed, your led to believe that it would significantly run up a SP's pitch count, and be more favorable for the batter, thats lie. By that logic, your going to take the first pitch as a strike 90% of the time, already putting a batter in the hole. Baseball is a game of failures, even the greatest hitter Ted Williams, failed to get a hit 6 out of 10 times, and I hate to inform you but Beane and the Moneyball philosophy is the biggest failure of all, well that and maybe Joe Borchard.

Again IsoD and IsoP are not good stats by any means infact they're laughable :cool:. Once again I'll use Ichiro as an example his IsoD is .48(.413-.365 = .48), Crawford's is 41. Are you going to admit to everyone on this board both member and lurker that Ichiro isn't the greatest leadoff hitter in the game? i would hope not.

Next with regards to prospects, your lucky if out 50 draftees 2 make the show thats 4%, and out of that 4% how many are impact players? the reason prospects are called prospects is because they haven't proven they can play at the ML level. Since its fairly obvious your a fan of Moneyball and sabermetrics, ill break down the '02 draft which moneyball was based off of.

"1,484 players were selected in the 2002 amateur draft. No fewer than 64 of those have reached the majors, a success rate of 4.3%. However, those figures include four players who did not sign with the teams that drafted them in 2002 and were instead re-drafted before eventually making it. Those players were: Houston – Scott Feldman (redrafted in 2003 by Texas), Detroit – Anthony Reyes (redrafted in 2003 by St. Louis), Cincinnati – Nick Markakis (redrafted in 2003 by Baltimore), Oakland – Jonathan Papelbon (redrafted in 2003 by Boston)." - Richard Van Zandt, baseballevolution.com

Beane has a success rate of 5.9%(3 players have made it to the show) 11th best in the bigs for the '02 draft. Guess who has the best sucess rate? Kenny Williams * highlight, its in white* 12%(Boone Logan, Jeremy Reed, Josh Rupe, Brandon McCarthy, Royce Ring, and Sean Tracey), Drink it up it goes down smooth :gulp:

Your right about one thing, corner outfielders who produce 25-30HR aren't hard to come by, but 5 tool players that can produce 25-30 HR, steal 50 bags, play solid defense, stay out of DPs, bunt, and drive in 70-80RBI(from the two hole!!!!!) are. 5 tool players are the hardest thing to come by, and are coveted, Brian Anderson has the ability to be a 5-tool player, Grady Sizemore is a 5 tool player, Corey Patterson is too, and lastly Cral Crawford is, and hes a potential HOFer. Do you even know what the 5 tools are? they hit for average, they hit for power, they're fast, have a good arm, and are good defensively.

Finally with a payroll over 100million the white sox don't have to rely on their farm system like the A's/Twins/Tribe/Braves/Marlins and for the last time he isn't a leadoff hitter he bats second, thats not to say he couldn't be a leadoff hitter because he could and he would be a damn good one at that.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 09:05 AM
Crawford has the ability to steal bases successfully at an alarming rate, none of his contemporaries can do that, also he can score from first and stay out of the DP. Much like Scott Podsednik he has the ability to.
Please prove this, I'm not debating it's validity, but I'd be interested to see a stat that displays how it affects a pitcher.
First off Carl Crawford doesn't bat lead off, hes bats second. Now lets compare him to some of his contemporaries this year from both the AL and NL.

What is the difference? Either way he is in a high spot in the order in front of the power guys. Ideally, you would want guys with good patience that will get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. Gooch himself isn't very patient, but we're lucky that Scott has been so patient this season.
Next I would gladly deal McCarthy+Fields+Rogowski+Broadway for a potential HOFer in Crawford.
You are dealing a proven commodity in McCarthy, a prospect who is tearing apart AAA in his first full season, a decent 1B, and a good prospect in Broadway for Crawford, who is not a surefire HOF. It's nothing against Crawford, but when you have two young, cheap pitchers, you at least give them a shot. A package like that should net more than Crawford, possibly Miguel Cabrera or Adam Dunn. I wouldn't give up McCarthy for Crawford straight up.
While Ks are great they're very over rated, a SO takes far more pitches than any other out, which in turn brings up a SP's pitch count, which in turn makes a manager goto a bullpen faster, thats not a good thing over the course of a 162 game season. I would rather have someone like Jon Garland who when he is on gets a ton of GB outs then a high K guy.
I don't know why you brought that up exactly, but to me it explains why a patient hitter is so special. Taking a pitcher deep into the count will run up his pitch count and tire him much earlier. That's why a high OBP and pitches per p/a is valued. In this day and age, a lot of high K pitchers are running into arm injuries constantly. GB outs are great and undervalued compared to K guys, there's no debating that.
Plate Disciple? yawn!
Well, plate discipline is the reason the Sox offense is so improved this year. So, I wouldn't write it off. Thome, Konerko, Dye, and even Pods have taken a lot of walks. A.J.'s success is different because he is a contact hitter, and has been most of his career.
The Oakland and Beane philosophy of seeing more pitches is very flawed, your led to believe that it would significantly run up a SP's pitch count, and be more favorable for the batter, thats lie
If you are "seeing more pitches", as you say, how would that not run a pitch count up? The whole philosophy centers around the idea of waiting for your pitch, and not wasting an at-bat by hacking at pitches out of the zone.
Again IsoD and IsoP are not good stats by any means infact they're laughable . Once again I'll use Ichiro as an example his IsoD is .48(.413-.365 = .48), Crawford's is 41. Are you going to admit to everyone on this board both member and lurker that Ichiro isn't the greatest leadoff hitter in the game? i would hope not.
Ichiro is not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game. He is a fantastic hitter, but I would rather have a high OBP guy.

.318/.432/.519/.951---That is Kevin Youkilis' line. He is getting on base an amazing 43% of the, and is still hitting .318. Oh, he has 3 SB as well. He has been the best in the game this year, if you weigh OBP over speed at the top of the order.

.365/.413/.464/.877---Ichiro has 22 SB. He is a great hitter, but I'll take Youkilis. Although he has a higher BA and SB, Youkilis has a higher SLG%, OBP, and naturally OPS. If you weigh speed, Ichiro is obviously the best due to his SB success rate.

I'm skipping the draft analysis and assumptions that I <3 Billy Beane.
Do you even know what the 5 tools are?
I know that they are incredibly overvalued.

Finally with a payroll over 100million the white sox don't have to rely on their farm system like the A's/Twins/Tribe/Braves/Marlins.
True, but with 3 of the 5 SP approaching free agency, we'll need the depth of SP on the farm to avoid having to sign filler (see: Indians-Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson) if any of them decide to go elsewhere. Plus, if we upgrade at SS, and lock up Crede and Dye we won't have as much money to throw around on pitching.

I understand it's two different baseball philosophies, and I respect what you think, but I just disagree.

Flight #24
06-19-2006, 09:29 AM
Please prove this, I'm not debating it's validity, but I'd be interested to see a stat that displays how it affects a pitcher.

Therein lies the problem. Your philosophy appears to be driven by "if it's real, then there exists a stat to measure it. If not, it must not be real", which isn't always true.


Ichiro is not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game. He is a fantastic hitter, but I would rather have a high OBP guy.
No one's debating the value of OBP, but it's not the be-all/end-all. There is a tradeoff value to speed and the ability to handle the bat well. So while Youkilis has 20pts of OBP and 50 of SLG on Ichiro, Ichiro's far superior speed and ability to handle the bat make him far more valuable in actual baseball. This is a guy who can ignite an offense and score in a number of ways (or actually eecute by hitting to the right side, generating a sac fly, etc) whereas Youkilis is a guy who;s far more limited offensively.


True, but with 3 of the 5 SP approaching free agency, we'll need the depth of SP on the farm to avoid having to sign filler (see: Indians-Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson) if any of them decide to go elsewhere.

Contreras is here for 3 more years. Same with Garland. Vazquez has 2. McCarthy has a ton & Broadway's coming fast. You have 2 guys that hit FA after next year, so you really only need to resign 1 and you have numerous internal options to replace the one you let go (and that doesn't even factor in that you can trade the guy in his walk year and get something fairly valuable).

I can't believe we're still having the "stats-over-everything-else" debate:rolleyes:

samram
06-19-2006, 09:45 AM
I would love to sit in on the call during which Theo Epstein offers Kevin Youkilis for Carl Crawford. I doubt it would last very long.

russ99
06-19-2006, 09:59 AM
I apologize but haven't seen a thread about this but co-worker said that EPSN insider was talking about a trade with the Whitesox where Torii would be out new CF. I would love this but would depend on who we gave up to get him. My Guess would be Garcia.

No way do the Sox send Garcia to a rival in their own division, much less the stinkin' Twins. I'd very much doubt Kenny would deal any of the starters until the offseason, when Contreras and Garland's no trade clauses end. I think Kenny's promised McCarthy a starting spot next season.

The only guy I can see the Sox moving from the starting lineup this season is Anderson and maybe Dye (option year this offseason?) if the return is specatacular, someone like Abreu, Tejada or M. Cabrera. Fields stays for insurance if Crede (FA in 07?) is unsignable, which could be the case with Boreass.

What really has Youkilis done, other than the infamous mention in "Moneyball"?

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 10:02 AM
Therein lies the problem. Your philosophy appears to be driven by "if it's real, then there exists a stat to measure it. If not, it must not be real", which isn't always true.
Most definitely. It's not so much that I don't believe it's true, but I'd love to see how it affects a pitcher's pitch selection. I assume a lot more fastballs, but I'd also like to see how much a hitter's AVG/OBP/SLG jump. I'm sure there's an effect, I just wish it could be measured.
No one's debating the value of OBP, but it's not the be-all/end-all. There is a tradeoff value to speed and the ability to handle the bat well. So while Youkilis has 20pts of OBP and 50 of SLG on Ichiro, Ichiro's far superior speed and ability to handle the bat make him far more valuable in actual baseball. This is a guy who can ignite an offense and score in a number of ways (or actually eecute by hitting to the right side, generating a sac fly, etc) whereas Youkilis is a guy who;s far more limited offensively.
Agree to disagree. What do you mean by handle the bat? I'm assuming hitting to the right side, sac bunts, etc. I don't understand why he's better at generating a sac fly though?
Contreras is here for 3 more years. Same with Garland. Vazquez has 2. McCarthy has a ton & Broadway's coming fast. You have 2 guys that hit FA after next year, so you really only need to resign 1 and you have numerous internal options to replace the one you let go (and that doesn't even factor in that you can trade the guy in his walk year and get something fairly valuable).
I meant we need to keep guys like McCarthy and Broadway because of the impending free agency. Having a good mix of young and old on a pitching staff is very valuable.
I can't believe we're still having the "stats-over-everything-else" debate
It's not really stats over everything else. It's Crawford is not worth what he'd demand.
I would love to sit in on the call during which Theo Epstein offers Kevin Youkilis for Carl Crawford. I doubt it would last very long.
And, I never said that.

samram
06-19-2006, 10:06 AM
And, I never said that.

Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford).

I think you did.

Flight #24
06-19-2006, 10:08 AM
Most definitely. It's not so much that I don't believe it's true, but I'd love to see how it affects a pitcher's pitch selection. I assume a lot more fastballs, but I'd also like to see how much a hitter's AVG/OBP/SLG jump. I'm sure there's an effect, I just wish it could be measured.
That's the point. It's not measurable (at least I haven't seen it be measured), but it's quite obvious when you watch the games. You appeared to be discounting it based on lack of stats.

Agree to disagree. What do you mean by handle the bat? I'm assuming hitting to the right side, sac bunts, etc. I don't understand why he's better at generating a sac fly though?
Pretty much what you said. Ichiro has amazing bat control and seems to quite regularly be able to do exactly what's required in terms of hitting to the right side, generating a fly ball, etc. That's a huge skill for a team that wants to be able to score using fundamentals as well as using a now-standard OBP-driven station-to-station approach. (Coincidentally, teams that use fundamentals tend to be fairly successful too!)


It's not really stats over everything else. It's Crawford is not worth what he'd demand.

Well, your argument was based on some fairly esoteric statistics and you pretty handily discounted non-statistical based evaluations of his worth. So maybe to be more accurate, it's "Crawford is not worth what he'd demand because the statistical analyses alone don't support it", which is IMO incorrect.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 10:10 AM
I think you did.
I said at the top of the order. Not in terms of a trade. But, if you want to get into it...
Carl Crawford's Career Line
.291/.324/.429
Kevin Youkilis' Career Line
.289/.402/.460

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 10:14 AM
Well, your argument was based on some fairly esoteric statistics and you pretty handily discounted non-statistical based evaluations of his worth. So maybe to be more accurate, it's "Crawford is not worth what he'd demand because the statistical analyses alone don't support it", which is IMO incorrect.
Would you give up Sweeney or Fields and McCarthy for him?

White Sox Randy
06-19-2006, 10:28 AM
The Only Thing The White Sox Need Is For The Playoffs To Get Here Now - While We Are Healthy !

Repeeeeeat !!!!!!!

Flight #24
06-19-2006, 10:36 AM
Would you give up Sweeney or Fields and McCarthy for him?

I'd strongly consider it. Whether or not I'd do it would depend on a number of factors including the long-term resigning prospects of Pods, the development timeline and likely "steady-state" performance of Anderson, the anticipated budget for resigning Buehrle/Garcia, and the options for replacing McCarthy in the 'pen this year.

You get a huge offensive boost by swapping Crawford for Anderson this year (partially offset by the loss of McCarthy from the 'pen). Also, given his contract, I don't know that CC is going to cost a lot more than Podsednik for the next couple of years.

if I could swap Anderson+McCarthy for Crawford+RH reliever, I'd probably do it. Then I'd resign Buehrle. After the season, I'd trade Garcia for pitching prospects to compete with Broadway for the #5 slot and I'd have the option to replace Pods with Fields (moving CC to leadoff).

I can see someone saying that they think McCarthy+Fields is too much, I just don't think your rationale is all that strong.

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 11:09 AM
If analyzing stats to draw conclusions makes me a stathead, so be it.

Well, I only assumed you were a stathead at first because you used a stat with which I'm sure most people are not familiar. But then you went and proved me assumption to be correct with statements like:

Please prove this, I'm not debating it's validity, but I'd be interested to see a stat that displays how it affects a pitcher.

After that, I don't really need to say much more. That's like stathead 101. If it's true, there has to be a stat that shows it, right? No such thing as intangibles in the game. Nothing happens that can't be explained through statistics. :rolleyes:

buehrle4cy05
06-19-2006, 11:15 AM
Will someone please explain what is so special about Carl Crawford? He has zero plate discipline, and I believe he had the lowest pitches per at bat last season in the majors. His IsoD was .30 last year, and that's absolutely miserable for anyone, especially someone expected to lead off. Yeah, he's fast. Big deal, I'd rather have a guy with a fantastic OBP (Youkilis) than a fast guy with a mediocre one (Crawford). Although his IsoP has shot up in recent years, he still needs to improve upon his discipline, otherwise he will cost whatever team overpays for him (Angels?) a lot of runs.

Adding him would cost (at least) McCarthy, and that by itself wouldn't be worth it. If the Angels are willing to part with a power pitcher like Santana, we'd better be prepared to give up McCarthy and possibly Fields. I could easily see the Angels giving up Kennedy/Santana, and then watch the Rays flip Kennedy for a B level prospect.

We need bullpen help, and any one of the three Pirate relievers would be worth it. I wouldn't mind parting with a guy like Jerry Owens if it meant getting a solid reliever in return.

Billy? Is that you?:?:

PatK
06-19-2006, 11:16 AM
I can't believe someone would rather have Youkilis over Ichiro.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:19 AM
After that, I don't really need to say much more. That's like stathead 101. If it's true, there has to be a stat that shows it, right? No such thing as intangibles in the game. Nothing happens that can't be explained through statistics. :rolleyes:
Maybe I didn't make myself clear, I am not debating it's validity. I think it's an interesting aspect of the game and I'd like to see how much it affects the pitcher. How can you put a value on how much it affects the pitcher without looking to see the difference between the two situations statistically? Everytime someone brings statistics into an argument they're cast as a "stathead".

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 11:19 AM
It's not really stats over everything else. It's Crawford is not worth what he'd demand.

But it is stats over everything. You've deemed him to be overvalued based on one simply stat, OBP, and his lack of patience. Nevermind the fact that he has incredible speed, developing power, very good defense and an increasing average every year; you've deemed him overvalued just because he doesn't take walks at the rate that statheads say a player should.

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 11:22 AM
Maybe I didn't make myself clear, I am not debating it's validity. I think it's an interesting aspect of the game and I'd like to see how much it affects the pitcher. How can you put a value on how much it affects the pitcher without looking to see the difference between the two situations statistically? Everytime someone brings statistics into an argument they're cast as a "stathead".

Because that's what statheads do. This isn't hard to understand. If you have to see a stat to believe something is true, you're a stathead. There are certain things that you can observe and recognize to be true if you watch enough baseball. Statheads take these things and say, "Well, maybe, what do the stats say?" That's exactly what you're doing.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 11:22 AM
Please prove this, I'm not debating it's validity, but I'd be interested to see a stat that displays how it affects a pitcher.

What is the difference? Either way he is in a high spot in the order in front of the power guys. Ideally, you would want guys with good patience that will get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. Gooch himself isn't very patient, but we're lucky that Scott has been so patient this season.

You are dealing a proven commodity in McCarthy, a prospect who is tearing apart AAA in his first full season, a decent 1B, and a good prospect in Broadway for Crawford, who is not a surefire HOF. It's nothing against Crawford, but when you have two young, cheap pitchers, you at least give them a shot. A package like that should net more than Crawford, possibly Miguel Cabrera or Adam Dunn. I wouldn't give up McCarthy for Crawford straight up.

I don't know why you brought that up exactly, but to me it explains why a patient hitter is so special. Taking a pitcher deep into the count will run up his pitch count and tire him much earlier. That's why a high OBP and pitches per p/a is valued. In this day and age, a lot of high K pitchers are running into arm injuries constantly. GB outs are great and undervalued compared to K guys, there's no debating that.

Well, plate discipline is the reason the Sox offense is so improved this year. So, I wouldn't write it off. Thome, Konerko, Dye, and even Pods have taken a lot of walks. A.J.'s success is different because he is a contact hitter, and has been most of his career.

If you are "seeing more pitches", as you say, how would that not run a pitch count up? The whole philosophy centers around the idea of waiting for your pitch, and not wasting an at-bat by hacking at pitches out of the zone.

Ichiro is not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game. He is a fantastic hitter, but I would rather have a high OBP guy.

.318/.432/.519/.951---That is Kevin Youkilis' line. He is getting on base an amazing 43% of the, and is still hitting .318. Oh, he has 3 SB as well. He has been the best in the game this year, if you weigh OBP over speed at the top of the order.

.365/.413/.464/.877---Ichiro has 22 SB. He is a great hitter, but I'll take Youkilis. Although he has a higher BA and SB, Youkilis has a higher SLG%, OBP, and naturally OPS. If you weigh speed, Ichiro is obviously the best due to his SB success rate.

I'm skipping the draft analysis and assumptions that I <3 Billy Beane.

I know that they are incredibly overvalued.


True, but with 3 of the 5 SP approaching free agency, we'll need the depth of SP on the farm to avoid having to sign filler (see: Indians-Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson) if any of them decide to go elsewhere. Plus, if we upgrade at SS, and lock up Crede and Dye we won't have as much money to throw around on pitching.

I understand it's two different baseball philosophies, and I respect what you think, but I just disagree.

Unfortunately Craig I'm not physic, I just play one on TV. I'm pretty sure BP did an article last year with regards to Podsednik being on base and how he "forces the action" aka FTA(see i can create abbreviations just like the sabermetric comunity and Bill James) they even had a cool little graph, so you know its got to be true.

Whats the difference? Well I'm glad you asked your leadoff hitter is supposed to see alot of pitches. He is put in that spot because he sees alot of pitches has the ability to draw the walk, can bunt, and is normally is a slap hitter with very limited power, and normally very fleet footed. A #2 hitter is usually a contact hitter and can hit the ball to all fields and bunt, their goal is to move the runner along and hopefully get on base themselves. The #3 spot is reservered for 1 of 2 types of hitter, and you can find both of them in the white sox line up. Type 1 is of the Jim Thome/David Ortiz mold high HR/SO/BB guys, or Type 2 the Jermaine Dyes/Alex Rodriguezs of the world Complete hitters in every sense of the word.

Your right McCarthy is a proven commodity, and Fields is tearing up AAA, But Rogo is blocked 3 1/2 deep (PK, Thome, Gload, Mackowiak), and incase you didn't know we already have 3 "Lance Broadways" in this organization they go by the names McCarthy, Broadway & Kyle McCulloch. Podsednik is getting older and is horrid in LF, Dye will surely be extended, and our rotation is already deep enough and locked up, so where are all these prospects going to play? and that package wouldn't net you Miguel Cabrera, Miggy is some kind of special and isn't on the block him and willis are the face of the [location] marlins.

I brought that up because more pitches per PA doesn't equal success, esp when a great hitter is considered .300, and especially when you have a MB or Jon Garland on the bump a control/finesse/GB pitcher. Very rarely will a strike out pitcher go good morning, good afternoon and good night, there are exceptions (Liriano & Santana). More often then not its good morning, would you like to nibble on some bacon, good afternoon, its time for brunch, and now a brisk walk, and then finally good night.

"Ichiro is not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game" i feel :redface: for you on that statement. Youkilis can not steal bases at the rate of Ichiro/Patterson/Crawford/Podsednik, also he can't score from first, and stay out of the DP, while he does get on base at a great rate, he isn't a lead off hitter, Kevin Youkilis = Joe Crede, he should be batting 7th in that line up and the only reason he isn't is because Crisp is rusty since coming off the DL. OBP is not the alpha and omega of baseball this is where Beane and his followers go wrong, baseball is about the fundamentals at its core, if you can successfully bunt, or move the runner over or situationally hit, there is a problem and a glaring weakness in your line up.

Who is approaching FA? Contreas/Garland/Vazquez are locked up for 3 more yeas if I'm not mistaken, Freddy is locked up till after 07 and i think MB is too, McCarthy is cheap for the next 5 years. so thats only 2/6 or 1/3 and seeing how Garcia is going to get delt from this rotation we don't need that much depth at the milb level, we've got lumsden/haeger/broadway/liotta on their way up. Dye is locked up till after 07, and Crede is under our control till 08, SS is fine and Uribes status is golden, this team was built on pitching and defense.

Your right there are different philosophies and I'm glad you respect my opinion but the sabermetric philosophy is very flawed and it doesn't take into account the fundamentals and intangibles.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:24 AM
But it is stats over everything. You've deemed him to be overvalued based on one simply stat, OBP, and his lack of patience. Nevermind the fact that he has incredible speed, developing power, very good defense and an increasing average every year; you've deemed him overvalued just because he doesn't take walks at the rate that statheads say a player should.
To use that speed he needs to get on base. His very good defense is in LF, and many would plan on using him in CF, where he has played sparsely.

ma-gaga
06-19-2006, 11:27 AM
I can't believe someone would rather have Youkilis over Ichiro.

You could have both though. They play different positions. A point that comparing Crawford and Anderson, to Youkilis, Ichiro and AJ silly. That said, I like Youkilis a lot, but I was impressed with his defense more than anything else. He looks good out there, and I didn't think that was his forte.

Plus you have contract status. Ichiro is a FA at the end of this year and may go back to Japan. Is Youkilis eligible for arbitration yet?? I don't think he is. That's a significant piece of the puzzle.

:gulp:

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:28 AM
Kevin Youkilis = Joe Crede
In what capacity? They both play third base?

Crede has the edge defensively, but offensively Youkilis is ahead. Boston bats him leadoff because they want OBP at the top. Would they improve as a team if they put him 7th and put Crisp and Gonzalez up there because they are fast?

ilsox7
06-19-2006, 11:30 AM
Because that's what statheads do. This isn't hard to understand. If you have to see a stat to believe something is true, you're a stathead. There are certain things that you can observe and recognize to be true if you watch enough baseball. Statheads take these things and say, "Well, maybe, what do the stats say?" That's exactly what you're doing.

It's obvious that what we need is a stat to prove someone is a stathead. That would end this debate immediately!

Beautox
06-19-2006, 11:39 AM
To use that speed he needs to get on base. His very good defense is in LF, and many would plan on using him in CF, where he has played sparsely.

False!, 51 games isn't sparsesly.

Getting back to your "I know that they are incredibly overvalued" with regards to 5 tool players. I can't help but laugh and say "Hello? Hello? Anybody home? Huh? Think, McFly. Think!!!!!", Roberto Clemente was a 5-tool player, there is a reason they're highly touted and coveted, its because they can do it all on a baseball diamond.

Lastly i didn't say Crawford was a lock for the HOF i said he had the potential when you compare him to the likes of rose/gwynn/clemente, hes only 24, your boy Youkilis is 27.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:40 AM
Because that's what statheads do. This isn't hard to understand. If you have to see a stat to believe something is true, you're a stathead. There are certain things that you can observe and recognize to be true if you watch enough baseball. Statheads take these things and say, "Well, maybe, what do the stats say?" That's exactly what you're doing.
This debate is tired. I agree there are other ways of looking at the game than stats, could you agree that you need to look at statistics as well as scout? I understand there are multiple ways of interpreting the game, but the overwhelming animosity towards statistics is confusing.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 11:41 AM
In what capacity? They both play third base?

Crede has the edge defensively, but offensively Youkilis is ahead. Boston bats him leadoff because they want OBP at the top. Would they improve as a team if they put him 7th and put Crisp and Gonzalez up there because they are fast?

yes they both play 3rd base, but that wasn't what i was getting at. Their offensive tools are better suited at 6/7 spot and yes they would improve greatly, thats why Crisp was brought over, hes the poor mans Johnny Damon.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:42 AM
False!, 51 games isn't sparsesly.

Getting back to your "I know that they are incredibly overvalued" with regards to 5 tool players. I can't help but laugh and say "Hello? Hello? Anybody home? Huh? Think, McFly. Think!!!!!", Roberto Clemente was a 5-tool player, there is a reason they're highly touted and coveted, its because they can do it all on a baseball diamond.

Lastly i didn't say Crawford was a lock for the HOF i said he had the potential when you compare him to the likes of rose/gwynn/clemente, hes only 24, your boy Youkilis is 27.
Roberto Clemente is a five tool player, yes. But having the five tools and applying them on the field is a different story.

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 11:44 AM
This debate is tired. I agree there are other ways of looking at the game than stats, could you agree that you need to look at statistics as well as scout? I understand there are multiple ways of interpreting the game, but the overwhelming animosity towards statistics is confusing.

When did I ever say stats don't have their place in the game? They are a very useful tool. But there needs to be a proper balance between understanding the stats and understands what you can actually see happen on the field. You seem to have no use for the latter based on several of your statements.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:44 AM
yes they both play 3rd base, but that wasn't what i was getting at. Their offensive tools are better suited at 6/7 spot and yes they would improve greatly, thats why Crisp was brought over, hes the poor mans Johnny Damon.
Crisp would cost them a ton of runs. He gets on base .121 less than Youkilis does, and when Ortiz/Manny are hitting home runs there'd be less people on base. It would hurt their offense to sacrifice that much OBP for speed.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:46 AM
When did I ever say stats don't have their place in the game? They are a very useful tool. But there needs to be a proper balance between understanding the stats and understands what you can actually see happen on the field. You seem to have no use for the latter based on several of your statements.
Yes, there needs to be a proper balance. Like if someone says that fast players cause "havoc" with a pitcher, then measuring it statistically would show how much it benefits.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 11:46 AM
Roberto Clemente is a five tool player, yes. But having the five tools and applying them on the field is a different story.

I agree some people don't always live up to the hype or it takes them a little longer to develop it at the MLB level look at Corey Patterson as a prime example, hes only 26. CC is a proven 5 tool player and is only 24 he already has more hits than rose at their respective ages, are now going to tell me Pete Rose doesn't hold the record for all time hits, or that OBP is the greatest stat ever.

Jjav829
06-19-2006, 11:49 AM
Yes, there needs to be a proper balance. Like if someone says that fast players cause "havoc" with a pitcher, then measuring it statistically would show how much it benefits.

You're joking, right? That's the complete opposite of balance. You're still completely relying on statistics. You can't accept anything to be true unless the statistics prove it to be true. That's a complete reliance on statistics, not balance.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:52 AM
You're joking, right? That's the complete opposite of balance. You're still completely relying on statistics. You can't accept anything to be true unless the statistics prove it to be true. That's a complete reliance on statistics, not balance.
I'm not relying on them to prove it to be true, I'm relying on them to show to what degree it will affect a pitcher. It is true. But how much does it affect a pitcher? Stats will show that.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 11:53 AM
Yes, there needs to be a proper balance. Like if someone says that fast players cause "havoc" with a pitcher, then measuring it statistically would show how much it benefits.

Don't you understand you can't measure it. Thats the beauty its human, its not confined to cross sections inside a book and lastly i told you if you need to call it something and put it in a book call it FTA, so now it exists and you can quantify it. this is the equation (FTA + R + SB + Error's - GIDP = W) there ya go.

ilsox7
06-19-2006, 11:54 AM
I'm not relying on them to prove it to be true, I'm relying on them to show to what degree it will affect a pitcher. It is true. But how much does it affect a pitcher? Stats will show that.

This may come as a shock to your system, but stats cannot measure everything. Take defense, for instance, there are no valid stats that show how good of a jump BA gets on a ball. And there never will be. It's one of those things that can only be realized by watching the actual game.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 11:57 AM
This may come as a shock to your system, but stats cannot measure everything. Take defense, for instance, there are no valid stats that show how good of a jump BA gets on a ball. And there never will be. It's one of those things that can only be realized by watching the actual game.
If you took stats on Iguchi/Thome/Konerko's AVG/OBP/SLG with Pods on base, then it would show that. There's no debating the shoddiness of defensive stats.

ilsox7
06-19-2006, 12:00 PM
If you took stats on Iguchi/Thome/Konerko's AVG/OBP/SLG with Pods on base, then it would show that. There's no debating the shoddiness of defensive stats.
Not really. There are WAY too many variables to account for. What is the game situation? Is it a pitcher with a good pick-off move? Does the catcher have a good or bad arm? Is the pitcher a fastball pitcher? Or is his best pitch something else? There is simply no way to account for the numerous variables to come up with a reliable means of measure. Therefore, it's best to rely on human observation by people who have spent years watching baseball games.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 12:05 PM
Whoever said we should trade all of our prospects to get Dunn is out of their minds. Did you just ignore the entire series this weekend? We might as well have Borchard playing CFer for free instead of giving away our entire farm system for someone we don't even need.

Garcia and Buehrle are signed through 2007. Everyone else, past that.

We have an option on Dye for next season, and it's a bargain. He is not going anywhere.

We control Crede's rights through the 2008 season (arbitration, one year deals, however we approach it).

I would take Ichiro or Crawford and not hesitate. There is a reason that the team played so much better last season before Pods got hurt...he set the tone, aggressiveness, getting in the heads of the opposing pitcher, fastballs to Iguchi and the middle of the order...I think our record when he scored or got on base at least once was pretty incredible. Ozuna, to a lesser extent, brings the same excitement and havoc to the opposition from off the bench.

And Brian Anderson is not a five tool player, he has first-step quickness (like Crede) but not the acceleration quickness you need for basestealing.

With an outfield of Ichiro (RF)-Anderson-Dye (LF) or Crawford (LF)-Anderson-Dye, you'll be in very good shape.

The only questions left are when is Pods going to replaced (in 2007 or 2008), who will it be (Owens looking doubtful, maybe Josh Fields) and who would we get as the leadoff hitter to replace Pods.

Theoretically, Ozuna could hit leadoff (when Iguchi and Pods are gone), but that's overexuberance about a limited number of AB's and OG has said a number of times Ozuna is not an everyday player. The jury's still out on Owens. Fortunately, speed players are generally cheaper than power, hence the intelligence of dumping Lee and Ordonez and improving in the process by creating payroll flexibility.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 12:08 PM
Or outfield assists...usually, the best players are never run upon, so they don't have very many. That's how a C-Lee or Pods accumulates quite a few, they are challenged at every possibility.

I know Roberto Clemente, Dwight Evans, Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker...all probably led the league at times in outfield assists, but that statistic usually is terribly misleading.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 12:12 PM
Manny led the league in assists for awhile last year.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 12:13 PM
Not really. There are WAY too many variables to account for. What is the game situation? Is it a pitcher with a good pick-off move? Does the catcher have a good or bad arm? Is the pitcher a fastball pitcher? Or is his best pitch something else? There is simply no way to account for the numerous variables to come up with a reliable means of measure. Therefore, it's best to rely on human observation by people who have spent years watching baseball games.
True, it's a paradox. There are a lot of variables, but I think it could show some of the effect.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 12:16 PM
And Brian Anderson is not a five tool player, he has first-step quickness (like Crede) but not the acceleration quickness you need for basestealing.


I'm glad you share alot of the same sediments that i do, but we're going to have to agree to disagree about Anderson. He is defiantly a 5 tool player, if Grady Sizemore is a 5 tool player, Brian Anderson is a 5 tool player, you can steal bases 2 ways, with raw speed or with technique, Brian could potentially steal 25 bases.

chaerulez
06-19-2006, 12:20 PM
I don't know if trading McCarthy is a good idea since he's major league ready. However I think Fields, Broadway and another pitcher (Tracey?) would be a deal I would do for Crawford.

ilsox7
06-19-2006, 12:21 PM
I'm glad you share alot of the same sediments that i do, but we're going to have to agree to disagree about Anderson. He is defiantly a 5 tool player, if Grady Sizemore is a 5 tool player, Brian Anderson is a 5 tool player, you can steal bases 2 ways, with raw speed or with technique, Brian could potentially steal 25 bases.

Kittle42 just had some chest pains.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 12:26 PM
I will be shocked if BA every steals 25 bases in the major leagues. I will be less shocked, but still surprised, if Chris Young (with more pure speed) does the same thing for the D-Backs, or whatever team trades for him.

Ozzie has called Sizemore the best player in the American League at times.

Anderson will never bat at the top of the order with his big swing and high strikeout numbers....he will continue to be a 7-9 hitter, and the opportunities for steals will be diminished, in terms of number of plate appearances but also situational baseball. Heck, it has taken Crede seemingly half a decade to move to #6 in the order.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 12:33 PM
From most vantage points, Broadway is going to be a bottom of the rotation starter....a 5, or, at best, a 4. Unless he proves he can excel with his control and become another Maddux, Glavine, Buehrle, etc.

We had a fairly similar pitcher in Matt Guerrier 4 years ago and made the wise decision to trade him for Marte. He has since evolved into a journeyman, last man out of the pen, innings eater for the Twins.

Lumsden and Gonzalez were the pitchers with the highest projectability. We already dealt one, so I think we should hold onto the other. Plus, we keep MaCarthy and we still have McCullough as well. The jury is out on Haeger and Liotta right now...but I think McCarthy will continue to develop and mature (please eat some steak and potatoes), bringing his FB into the 92-94 MPH range. Broadway will never have that type of velocity, always relying on control and getting ahead in counts.

Beautox
06-19-2006, 12:36 PM
Kittle42 just had some chest pains.

whoops :redface: sentiments , my bad

Sox-o-matic
06-19-2006, 04:46 PM
In what capacity? They both play third base?

Crede has the edge defensively, but offensively Youkilis is ahead. Boston bats him leadoff because they want OBP at the top. Would they improve as a team if they put him 7th and put Crisp and Gonzalez up there because they are fast?

No, because three run homers are the be all end all of professional baseball.

I hope you cry when you watch your beloved Red Sox get swept by the Sox (again) in the playoffs this year, if they even get that far.

BTW, how many clutch game-winning hits has Youkilis had? To say Youkilis is better offensively than Crede based on one measely stat just shows how clueless you are.

Please, I beg you, go away.

Tragg
06-19-2006, 06:00 PM
it took me a while to complie that data so when i posted it i hadn't seen the responses.

Plate Disciple? yawn!
Here is a great example for you on the sox. AJ is ranked in the top 5 for hitters in the AL who swing at the first pitch, now going by your logic thats bad, but a .322 BA, and .370 OBP, would tell me your logic is wrong. AJ also sees 3.27 pitches per PA. Furthermore with regards to Crawford and AJ, why would need BB when you're constantly getting on base using your bat? The Oakland and Beane philosophy of seeing more pitches is very flawed, your led to believe that it would significantly run up a SP's pitch count, and be more favorable for the batter, thats lie.

Plate discipline is hardly a lonely sanctuary of the Beaneophobes. That's ridiculous. It's logical, and it's good baseball. OBP is CRITICAL for a player like Crawford who does his damage just being on base...it doesn't matter how he got there. This year, Crawford's hits are finding holes; last year they weren't, and hence a poor .321 OBP. If he had plate discipline, he'd have a .380 OBP this year and a .350 OBP last year. When you have marginal power, it's those walks that turn you into an excellent hitter.
It's even more important when you have Thome, Konkero and Dye waiting to drive you in. GET ON BASE is the key.

As for AJ, he has no plate discipline either , which is why he's an average hitter, notwithstanding his high BA this year. And his BA this year with runners in scoring position, is around .200.

Some years, the grounders and bloops find their holes; others they don't. Discipline is consistent.

I see comparisons to Pods on here...what's Pods' value on the open market? Could we get a top prospect for him. much less a top young pitcher and a prospect for him? Not on your life...no way, no chance, no how. What sort of salary does he command? Not near the top shelf. And Pods walks - some.

Half of this board wanted to give up a top prospect (and more) for Juan Pierre, and considered him a good hitter; even if he had a normal season, he's a mediocre hitter....a decent BA can't overcome zero power and zero walking.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 06:11 PM
That trade may go down as the worst in Cubs´ history when all is said and done when Pierre walks at the end of the season.

It's always a risk to give away young, quality (and cheap) arms for an outfielder. The odds are too high that at least one of them will become a stud, unless you´re the Royals making the deal, in which case, nothing is going to go right in terms of talent acquisition.

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 07:28 PM
No, because three run homers are the be all end all of professional baseball.

I hope you cry when you watch your beloved Red Sox get swept by the Sox (again) in the playoffs this year, if they even get that far.

BTW, how many clutch game-winning hits has Youkilis had? To say Youkilis is better offensively than Crede based on one measely stat just shows how clueless you are.

Please, I beg you, go away.
Player A (Career): .260/.307/.444
Player B (Career): .290/.402/.460

I would say, over the course of their careers, Player B is better offensively.

Disclaimer: This is a matter of offense. I am not saying I'd rather have Youkilis, just saying he's better offensively. I understand that Crede is the best defensive third baseman in the game.

Beloved Red Sox? I am a White Sox fan. I only used Youkilis as an example because of his exceptional plate patience.

caulfield12
06-19-2006, 07:57 PM
Those same statistics would probably make Crede and Scott Hatteberg look like fairly similar players over their careers, but nobody in baseball would prefer Hatteberg over Crede, despite what the stats say.

sullythered
06-19-2006, 09:44 PM
Player A (Career): .260/.307/.444
Player B (Career): .290/.402/.460

I would say, over the course of their careers, Player B is better offensively.

Disclaimer: This is a matter of offense. I am not saying I'd rather have Youkilis, just saying he's better offensively. I understand that Crede is the best defensive third baseman in the game.

Beloved Red Sox? I am a White Sox fan. I only used Youkilis as an example because of his exceptional plate patience.
I did a little research because, for some reason, I had it in my head that Youkilis had primarily been a first baseman. I was wrong, but in the looking I found something funny. Baseball-Referance has a nickname listed for Kevin Youkilis-"The Greek God of Walks." That might be my new favorite nickname, and does speek to his plate patience, to say the least.:D:

Craig Grebeck
06-19-2006, 10:22 PM
My bad, I completely forgot that Youkilis was now playing 1B. He came up as a 3B.

Tragg
06-19-2006, 11:39 PM
That trade may go down as the worst in Cubs´ history when all is said and done when Pierre walks at the end of the season.

It's always a risk to give away young, quality (and cheap) arms for an outfielder. The odds are too high that at least one of them will become a stud, unless you´re the Royals making the deal, in which case, nothing is going to go right in terms of talent acquisition.
I agree - and it would have been a bad trade if PIerre hit .300. Pierre level talent is easy to find in the FA market and at a reasonable price...to trade legit prospects for it is absurd.
Crawford appears to be a grade above Pierre...but worth McCarthy and a top prospect? Not in my opinion.
Why so many people want to trade a young pitcher with so much promise is mind-boggling.

Domeshot17
06-20-2006, 12:40 AM
I like Brian alot, but shouldnt we wait until he hits the mendoza line before we deem him 5 tools? Right now he is showing 2, Defense and Arm Strength. His speed is average to above average but hes a smart base runner. I guess who would know, his OBP is below 200 (or close) lol, we never get a chance to see him try and steal.

Anderson should turn out to be a fine player, but Grady Sizemore will turn out to be 10 times the player Anderson is. Sizemore has a chance to be a very special player. Lets just hoop the tribe gets cheap when his arbitration years are up (I know he signed a steady deal through when his arbitration would have ended) and lets him get the big contract somewhere else, like the St. Louis

ilsox7
06-20-2006, 01:00 AM
I like Brian alot, but shouldnt we wait until he hits the mendoza line before we deem him 5 tools? Right now he is showing 2, Defense and Arm Strength. His speed is average to above average but hes a smart base runner. I guess who would know, his OBP is below 200 (or close) lol, we never get a chance to see him try and steal.

Anderson should turn out to be a fine player, but Grady Sizemore will turn out to be 10 times the player Anderson is. Sizemore has a chance to be a very special player. Lets just hoop the tribe gets cheap when his arbitration years are up (I know he signed a steady deal through when his arbitration would have ended) and lets him get the big contract somewhere else, like the St. Louis

His OBP is .271.

Craig Grebeck
06-20-2006, 09:14 AM
The Cubs traded two prospects with a lot of promise and a useful groundball pitcher for an incredibly overrated slap hitter who was coming off the worst year of his career. That is already the worst deal since Abreu/Stocker.

oeo
06-20-2006, 09:22 AM
I like Brian alot, but shouldnt we wait until he hits the mendoza line before we deem him 5 tools? Right now he is showing 2, Defense and Arm Strength. His speed is average to above average but hes a smart base runner. I guess who would know, his OBP is below 200 (or close) lol, we never get a chance to see him try and steal.

Anderson should turn out to be a fine player, but Grady Sizemore will turn out to be 10 times the player Anderson is. Sizemore has a chance to be a very special player. Lets just hoop the tribe gets cheap when his arbitration years are up (I know he signed a steady deal through when his arbitration would have ended) and lets him get the big contract somewhere else, like the St. Louis

Sizemore probably will be better than Brian, but I don't see him being 10 times better. Give Brian some time, Sizemore has already been in the bigs for about 2 years now (where he didn't do so hot in his first season in 2004).

caulfield12
06-20-2006, 12:49 PM
Some others...

Andersen for Bagwell
Smoltz for Doyle Alexander
Harnisch, Schilling and Finley for Glenn Davis
Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas
Brock/Broglio
Sandberg and Bowa for DeJesus
any trade involving Von Purple Hayes or Len Barker
Amos Rusie for Christy Mathewson
McGwire for Mathews, Ludwick and Stein
McGriff for Nieves, Elliott and Moore (to Braves)
Buhner for Ken Mr. Phelps
D. Lowe and Varitek for Slocumb
Garcia, Halama and C. Guillen for Big Unit
Lee, Sizemore and Phillips (doing well now) for Colon
Cone for Janzen, Jarvis and Gordon
Miceli and Lieber for Stan Belinda