PDA

View Full Version : The Race for October


Fenway
06-05-2006, 01:21 PM
2 months down, 4 to go, a third of the season in the books

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20060605&type=reg&br=9&year=2006&column=gamesBehind&order=false&st=2


All that seems certain now is the WC will not come from the AL West

The White Sox with all their problems the past 2 weeks still would be in the playoffs if the season ended today but what has happened is the Eastern clubs have caught up to both Detroit and Chicago.

Honestly I don't think the Tigers are going to hang in there, they just went 4-6 on a homestand with the Indians, Yankees and Red Sox and that won't get it done. Cleveland seems to be getting untracked, forget about the Twins. White Sox are still on track to finish in the high 90's in wins and this is with their awful record in one run games. I still see them winning the division by spurting away in the second half.

The East? What else is new as Boston and New York are in a virtual dead heat but the Jays still lurk. Toronto has handled Boston easily in 2006 and I see them spending at the deadline. You know Boston and NYY will spend.

The big story in the West is Anaheim doing nothing. Texas looks like the strongest but soon it will be 105 every night in Arlington and I'm convinced that hurts them come August and September, they just worn out.

National?

Atlanta took a big hit this weekend losing 4 at home, that may come back to haunt them. The thing to watch is can Houston close ground on St Louis. Don't worry about the Flubs, as you not winning when your leadoff man has an OPS of a number 8 hitter.

This is going to be a fun summer

DumpJerry
06-05-2006, 01:31 PM
My Tiger fan friends are telling me they are enjoying it while it lasts. They expect their team to fall from grace any minute now (already started). While the Tigers seem to have a pretty good manager in Leyland, they have pretty much the same roster that was out of it pretty early last year (albeit Ordonez was on the DL for an extended period last year). With Maroth gone, the death watch has begun in Detroit.

I would worry about the Tribe. They's got the offense to make a charge. The pitching is not bad, not spectacular (except for C.C. who is their Johan).

I'm not worried about our boys. Every team has a skid at some point in the season, the issue is how long and when will the team pull out of it. I'm glad we are having our only skid of the season right now so there is plenty of time to make up for it, unlike last year where we had about 3 weeks to do so.

I see the Sox winning the Div. AL West will not provide the WC. I think the AL East has a slightly better than 50-50 chance of beating out the Tribe for the WC.

The NL is not worth handicapping since they seem incapable as a league of beating the American League in the ASG or WS since the Marlins won the World Series. It seems like all the talent got snatched up by AL teams. Well most of them.

infohawk
06-05-2006, 01:31 PM
Good analysis Fenway. I'm inclined to agree with you. I also think that the Sox are likely to be pretty dominant in the second half. Our pitching won't struggle for long. These starters are not question marks, and KW will do something with the bullpen. I still don't believe centerfield is really a problem. Could it be upgraded? Sure. Is it what ails us right now? No. The biggest surprise for me this year is Anaheim.

MarySwiss
06-05-2006, 01:39 PM
Nice, Fenway.

Just me, but I pick the Sox, LAA, and I still think Toronto has a shot. I don't care who the WC is.

And look who just swept Atlanta! I agree with Dump that the winner of the AL wins the whole shooting match, but I'm still rooting for the chance to go see the World Series between the Sox and D'Backs.

munchman33
06-05-2006, 01:55 PM
The Yankees injury list continues to grow.

It'll be between Toronto and Boston in the east. If Toronto gets anything from A.J. Burnett in the second half, they run away with it.

Fenway
06-21-2006, 05:01 PM
If you listen to talk radio in the Northeast (WFAN or WEEI) there has been a lot a talk right now about how it will be win or go home in the AL East. We all waiting for the Kitties to implode but after their struggle with the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox they then rip off 9 of 10. You can no longer assume they are going to suddenly roll over and die.

If the season ended today the White Sox would win the Wild Card by 5.5 games

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20060621&type=wild&br=5&year=2006&column=gamesBehind&order=false&st=2

but what the East teams have to worry about is the AL West teams have caught them in wins. This is really shaping up as one of the most interesting overall races in years.

munchman33
06-21-2006, 05:08 PM
If you listen to talk radio in the Northeast (WFAN or WEEI) there has been a lot a talk right now about how it will be win or go home in the AL East. We all waiting for the Kitties to implode but after their struggle with the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox they then rip off 9 of 10. You can no longer assume they are going to suddenly roll over and die.

If the season ended today the White Sox would win the Wild Card by 5.5 games

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20060621&type=wild&br=5&year=2006&column=gamesBehind&order=false&st=2

but what the East teams have to worry about is the AL West teams have caugt them in wins. This is really shaping up as one of the most interesting overall races in years.

I still think the east shouldn't worry about the Tigers. They're not that good. They just dominate the easy teams. But as dominant as they are against those teams, they are downright feeble against anything from the top half of the league. Sure they ran off 9 of 10, but their bad stretches won't be saved by the N.L. Central every time. The Tigers will fade. They can't produce runs against good pitching, so they can't beat good teams.

RKMeibalane
06-21-2006, 05:12 PM
AL: Chicago, Detroit, New York, Oakland
NL: Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis

Fuller_Schettman
06-21-2006, 05:17 PM
Good point. Detroit is 3-10 against NY, BOS & us. But they are still very formidable and are flat cleaning up against everyone else (45-15 .750)

The way I see it is that the White Sox will win the Central by less than 5 games and the Tigers will be the WC. I think the streaky A's will win out over the Rangers. I also expect the Yankmees to prevail in another close race in the AL Least.

I would love to see the Sox clinch the ALDS here in Oakland!

An ALCS win over New Yawk would be awesome.

And taking it to the Mets in the Series would be the cherry on top!

That's my wish list and I'm stickin' to it!

BNLSox
06-21-2006, 05:28 PM
Oh we're doing predictions now?

AL: Chicago, Toronto, Oakland - Wildcard Detroit
NL: New York, St. Louis, Los Angeles - Wildcard Cincinnati

Chicken Dinner
06-21-2006, 05:32 PM
Even if the Tigers go .500 the rest of the season, that would still give them a 93-69 record. They only have 6 games left with the BoSox and Yanks and 13 with us.

If the Tigers don't make the playoffs I will be amazed.

Fenway
06-21-2006, 05:42 PM
Even if the Tigers go .500 the rest of the season, that would still give them a 93-69 record. They only have 6 games left with the BoSox and Yanks and 13 with us.

If the Tigers don't make the playoffs I will be amazed.

That is exactly the point. PLUS they still have TEN left with the Royals.

(Boston gets a huge break by getting the Royals 9 times and the Yankees only play KC 3, those 6 games could be the difference in winning the east )

munchman33
06-21-2006, 06:03 PM
Even if the Tigers go .500 the rest of the season, that would still give them a 93-69 record. They only have 6 games left with the BoSox and Yanks and 13 with us.

If the Tigers don't make the playoffs I will be amazed.

Tigers remaining schedule includes:

13 games with White Sox
3 games with Yankees
3 games with Red Sox
3 games with Toronto
6 games with Texas
3 games with Toronto
3 games with St. Louis
3 games with Oakland

They could easily lose 90% of those ballgames. I mean, if you're going to assume they'll continue at that .750 rate against everyone else, then you have to assume they'll play like crap against good teams.

In reality, they're still going to get pushed around by the good teams, because they're not as good as them. And they won't continue to put up a .750 win rate against the rest of the league. That's simply unrealistic. Expect the Kittens to be sitting at home come October.

chisoxfan64
06-21-2006, 06:05 PM
That is exactly the point. PLUS they still have TEN left with the Royals.

(Boston gets a huge break by getting the Royals 9 times and the Yankees only play KC 3, those 6 games could be the difference in winning the east )

Has anyone notified Toronto that they are officialy out of the race ?

Fenway
06-21-2006, 06:10 PM
In reality, they're still going to get pushed around by the good teams, because they're not as good as them. And they won't continue to put up a .750 win rate against the rest of the league. That's simply unrealistic. Expect the Kittens to be sitting at home come October.


The great unknown. What if the Tigers can land John Smoltz? He can veto any trade but would almost certainly OK a trade back to his hometown and there has been a lot of talk of that happening as Atlanta is toast for 2006.

munchman33
06-21-2006, 06:27 PM
The great unknown. What if the Tigers can land John Smoltz? He can veto any trade but would almost certainly OK a trade back to his hometown and there has been a lot of talk of that happening as Atlanta is toast for 2006.

Smoltz would help. But you have to think that the rest of the staff is going to regress, at least a little (maybe not Bonderman). Verlander's ERA will probably end up in the 4's as his innings pile up. Rogers is a second half 5.50 waiting to happen. Robertson is already starting to cool off. Maroth's already gone for the year. And Miner is gonna start losing games once the league sees him enough (which is why losing Maroth was so huge).

JorgeFabregas
06-21-2006, 06:50 PM
I'm not sure what's not to like about the Tiggers. They have good starting pitching, a good bullpen, and a solid lineup. :?:

munchman33
06-21-2006, 07:17 PM
I'm not sure what's not to like about the Tiggers. They have good starting pitching, a good bullpen, and a solid lineup. :?:

Rotation: They have one great starter (Bonderman), one young stud who's never thrown as many innings as he's already thrown (Verlander), one veteran with a history of terrible second halves (Rogers), one decent arm who's been pitching more like himself lately (Robertson), and a really raw rookie filling in until he starts getting jacked and they have to call someone else up (Miner).

Bullpen: The closer is Todd Jones. Even Tiger's fans hate him. And having Jason Grili and Kevin Walker in key spots = not a good thing. There are problems here.

Lineup: Lots of power. Lots of strikeouts. They have been consistantly overmatched by good pitching, and have looked like world-beaters against crappy pitching. Sounds very familiar (Injuns last year, us every year before that).

There's plenty not to like. If you visit Motownsports.com, you'll see a lot of tiger's fans believe their team has a lot of holes too. Some even think that the team will finish around .500 still. The Tigers are better. But they're not that good. They'll come back to Earth.

Lip Man 1
06-21-2006, 10:09 PM
Barring a meltdown of Biblical proportions Detroit will be in the post season.

Lip

JB98
06-21-2006, 10:21 PM
Rotation: They have one great starter (Bonderman), one young stud who's never thrown as many innings as he's already thrown (Verlander), one veteran with a history of terrible second halves (Rogers), one decent arm who's been pitching more like himself lately (Robertson), and a really raw rookie filling in until he starts getting jacked and they have to call someone else up (Miner).

Bullpen: The closer is Todd Jones. Even Tiger's fans hate him. And having Jason Grili and Kevin Walker in key spots = not a good thing. There are problems here.

Lineup: Lots of power. Lots of strikeouts. They have been consistantly overmatched by good pitching, and have looked like world-beaters against crappy pitching. Sounds very familiar (Injuns last year, us every year before that).

There's plenty not to like. If you visit Motownsports.com, you'll see a lot of tiger's fans believe their team has a lot of holes too. Some even think that the team will finish around .500 still. The Tigers are better. But they're not that good. They'll come back to Earth.

I don't think Grilli is being used in key spots. And that's Jamie Walker, not Kevin Walker. Jamie Walker is a pretty solid situational lefty. Jones, Zumaya, Walker and Rodney are the key men in that bullpen. As you indicate, Jones is a monumental question mark. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zumaya in the closer's role before long.

I think Tigers are a 90- to 95-win team. No matter because the Sox will win 95-100.

oeo
06-21-2006, 10:38 PM
Barring a meltdown of Biblical proportions Detroit will be in the post season.

Lip

Let me remind you, the Sox were 2 games ahead of the Tigers current pace, last year. They nearly lost it, and that team was better than the 2006 Tigers. I predict the Tigers will win a total of 86 games.

PKalltheway
06-22-2006, 12:34 AM
Has anyone notified Toronto that they are officialy out of the race ?
No. They may not make the playoffs, but they'll stay in it until the end, and they will play spoiler when they face Boston and New York late in the year.

MadetoOrta
06-22-2006, 07:48 AM
Barring a meltdown of Biblical proportions Detroit will be in the post season.

Lip

Way too early to step out like this. I've applauded Detroit here many times. I believe they'll be in the hunt in late August. Personally, I'd like to see them get the WC. The Central deserves its props.

champagne030
06-22-2006, 08:28 AM
The East? What else is new as Boston and New York are in a virtual dead heat but the Jays still lurk. Toronto has handled Boston easily in 2006 and I see them spending at the deadline. You know Boston and NYY will spend.



This isn't free agent season. Boston needs pitching, pitching and more pitching. The Yanks need pitching and some outfield help. There's probably not going to be a SP difference maker (btw - Jason Johnson is not a difference maker) available that's a salary dump. Zito, Smoltz, Willis....If they ever do become available will cost prospects that the Sawx or Yankees don't have.

Ol' No. 2
06-22-2006, 08:59 AM
The great unknown. What if the Tigers can land John Smoltz? He can veto any trade but would almost certainly OK a trade back to his hometown and there has been a lot of talk of that happening as Atlanta is toast for 2006.Someone like Smoltz is the one thing that can put the Tigers over the top. Otherwise, I don't see their pitching holding up. Robertson seems to have remembered he's a mediocre pitcher. We know where Rogers will go the second half. And their bullpen has a few good arms, but no depth, which gets them into trouble in a series with a good team. Still, .500 ball the rest of the way gets them 92 wins.

WizardsofOzzie
06-22-2006, 09:55 AM
The White Sox with all their problems the past 2 weeks still would be in the playoffs if the season ended today but what has happened is the Eastern clubs have caught up to both Detroit and Chicago.


What are these problems of which you speak again? :dunno:

GoSox2K3
06-22-2006, 10:52 AM
Barring a meltdown of Biblical proportions Detroit will be in the post season.

Lip

I disagree that it would be a meltdown of those proportions. It's only June and the Tigers lead the division by 1 game and lead a potential wild card race by 7 games. An impressive lead no doubt and they have a good shot at making the playoffs, but I don't think it's so unheard of for a team to lose that kind of lead over the last 2/3 of a season.

GoSox2K3
06-22-2006, 10:56 AM
The great unknown. What if the Tigers can land John Smoltz? He can veto any trade but would almost certainly OK a trade back to his hometown and there has been a lot of talk of that happening as Atlanta is toast for 2006.

Who would the Tigers give up to land Smoltz? I can't imagine he'll come at a bargain price.

Baby Fisk
06-22-2006, 11:19 AM
Has anyone notified Toronto that they are officialy out of the race ?
Tonight we will get a strong indication of the Black Jays' fortunes for the second half. A.J. Burnett returns from rehab and starts tonight against the Braves. He knows the Braves well, and if he blows them away it will be a positive sign for Toronto. If he walks off the mound wincing after two innings, his season is prolly over.

Chicken Dinner
06-22-2006, 11:21 AM
Let me remind you, the Sox were 2 games ahead of the Tigers current pace, last year. They nearly lost it, and that team was better than the 2006 Tigers. I predict the Tigers will win a total of 86 games.

I think 5 games above .500 is underestimating what's going on in Detroit.

palehozenychicty
06-22-2006, 11:21 AM
Tonight we will get a strong indication of the Black Jays' fortunes for the second half. A.J. Burnett returns from rehab and starts tonight against the Braves. He knows the Braves well, and if he blows them away it will be a positive sign for Toronto. If he walks off the mound wincing after two innings, his season is prolly over.

You got the over/under on the latter happening? :redneck

Fenway
06-22-2006, 05:08 PM
It is impossible in June to put a number on how many wins gets the Wild Card, my best guess is around 94. As already pointed out in this thread if the Kitties play .500 the rest of the way they will be at 93.

Because of Toronto I am pegging the East winner at around 92 wins, the West I am clueless about after Oakland's hot streak. I'm still waiting for Anaheim to improve but.....

Right now the most solid bet for the post season is Chicago as they have the pitching to get them thru the dog days of July and August. But I suspect you will see a lot of movement as the trade deadline nears by the other clubs ESPECIALLY New York. The Yankees not only face the prospect of not making the post-season, they most likely will have to watch the Mets in October that will drive George nuts.

Toronto is lurking but they can't seem to move into the second spot in the East, but if they get hot all bets are off.

Fenway
06-30-2006, 02:54 PM
Listening to WFAN today fans of both the Mets and Yankees are worried. Yankees fans are beginning to fear Boston may pull away in the East leaving the Yankees with a major uphill climb for the WC and Mets fans worried that if they make the World Series they will be outmatched by the AL winner based on what happened in Boston this week.

Here is a scary stat about the Tigers. Going into Friday night they are only one game behind the pace of the 1984 team that went wire to wire. :o: Honestly I can't see them missing the playoffs now because to do so they would have to play around .475 ball the rest of the way and they show no signs of doing that.

Boston right now is playing as well as I have ever seen them play as they have really jelled since Coco came off the disabled list. Never in a million years would I expect a Boston team to be leading the majors in defense and last night they broke the AL record for most consecutive games without an error.

Worst division in baseball? NL Central hands down. The Cards lose 8 in a row and still lead the division. Pittsburgh loses 13 in a row and yet the Flubs are within hailing distance.

Biggest disappointments in 06? Anaheim and Cleveland.

bigfoot
06-30-2006, 05:34 PM
Who would the Tigers give up to land Smoltz? I can't imagine he'll come at a bargain price.

I've read/heard that a combo of Zumaya+prospect/s would get the job done. But maybe that's from the Braves point of view.

Tiger23
06-30-2006, 06:32 PM
I've read/heard that a combo of Zumaya+prospect/s would get the job done. But maybe that's from the Braves point of view.

Zumaya won't be traded.

Fenway
07-02-2006, 06:19 PM
As the dust settles from interleague play one team really made up some ground, hello SEATTLE

Twins are red hot but what good did it do them as so were the Tigers and White Sox.

Frater Perdurabo
07-02-2006, 06:24 PM
As the dust settles from interleague play one team really made up some ground, hello SEATTLE

Twins are red hot but what good did it do them as so were the Tigers and White Sox.
Seattle's surge only raises the price for upgrades before the trade deadline; there's one more buyer and one less seller now.

Come to think of it, the only sellers in the American League would be Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Kansas City (and Tampa Bay isn't really a serious seller since they ask for the moon and the stars for even their worst player; this year they might get that and more for whatever they might put on the block). Everyone else either is within striking distance or is playing well enough to think they are.

DSpivack
07-02-2006, 06:38 PM
Seattle's surge only raises the price for upgrades before the trade deadline; there's one more buyer and one less seller now.

Come to think of it, the only sellers in the American League would be Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Kansas City (and Tampa Bay isn't really a serious seller since they ask for the moon and the stars for even their worst player; this year they might get that and more for whatever they might put on the block). Everyone else either is within striking distance or is playing well enough to think they are.

Is Tampa still asking for the moon as they did last year? Only wondering because they have a new GM.

Lip Man 1
07-02-2006, 07:58 PM
Frater:

In the A.L. you can expect that the Orioles, Devil Rays, Indians and Royals are open for business. They are done.

In the N.L. it's the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Nationals, Cubs and Pirates.

Lots of teams the Sox can do business with.

Lip

gf2020
07-02-2006, 08:09 PM
Frater:

In the A.L. you can expect that the Orioles, Devil Rays, Indians and Royals are open for business. They are done.

In the N.L. it's the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Nationals, Cubs and Pirates.

Lots of teams the Sox can do business with.

Lip

I can't see the Phillies giving up just yet.

Lip Man 1
07-02-2006, 08:44 PM
GF:

They have a losing record and are 11 1/2 back of the Mets. They're done.

Lip

Brian26
07-02-2006, 08:54 PM
GF:

They have a losing record and are 11 1/2 back of the Mets. They're done.

Lip

Before anyone argues that they're only 6.5 games out of the wild card, note that that have 7 teams to jump over.

Fenway
07-10-2006, 01:42 PM
All Star break is a good time to see where everyone stands.

AL East

Boston still clings to a 3 game lead over NYY which considering the Yankees injury woes isn't as big as it should be. BUT because of the rain Boston got all spring the Red Sox have only played 37 home games and they have 10 with Kansas City.

Bigger question now is will the second place team in the East catch the second place team in the Central. That maybe a tall order.

Toronto starting to fade.

AL West

Watch out for Anaheim that seems to be waking up but only 2.5 games seperate the 4 teams. Wild Card not coming from the west however.

AL Central

We keep waiting for the Tigers to fold, and wait and wait and wait. Even when and if Chicago goes ahead it will be hard for Detroit to blow the WC at worst.

NL East
Mets case closed

NL Central
St Louis has fallen apart. Milwaukee could be the darkhorse but Houston still lurking. The Reds seem to be fading fast.

NL West

Like the AL West it could be anyone. Dodgers miss Gagne bigtime. My hunch is San Diego the team to beat but :?:

It will be a great second half.

SoxSpeed22
07-10-2006, 01:54 PM
There are too many unknowns at this point.
Detroit could land another big bat or arm at the deadline
We could land another arm
Anyone can get hurt
Anyone can break out
There are also way too many similarities between the Sox last year and Detroit this year to make any jugements.

Fenway
07-20-2006, 12:59 PM
One thing that has happened in the past week is the overall standings have tightened up. Going into Thursday night Chicago is now tied with Boston and lead the Yankees by 2 so at least for the time being this will stop the talk that the WC is coming from the Central. To add another wrinkle to this the Twins have moved into hailing distance so at least for now they along with Toronto have to be included in the overall picture. If the Twins can start winning on the road they could really be dangerous.

The AL West looks like a 3 team dog fight and a lot will depend on who does what at the trade deadline.

In the National, the Mets are still crusing in the East, St Louis is back on track and San Diego has a 2 1/2 lead dispite having a losing record at home. Don't even ask about the NL Wild Card as you have TEN teams within 7 games of the lead.

This summer is getting very interesting.