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View Full Version : espn.com's projection software needs tweaking


Fenway
04-20-2006, 08:24 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4267

check out Schilling's projected record :tongue: 43-0

RealMenWearBlack
04-20-2006, 10:43 PM
So you're saying Thome won't hit 76 home runs? :o: :D:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4762

JorgeFabregas
04-20-2006, 10:48 PM
Their projection model is just based on the performance thus far pro-rated over a full season. There's no accounting for past performance or anything like that, so it shouldn't be interpreted as such.

soxfan13
04-21-2006, 10:15 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4267

check out Schilling's projected record :tongue: 43-0

I really think he has a shot!

SBSoxFan
04-21-2006, 11:18 AM
Their projection model is just based on the performance thus far pro-rated over a full season. There's no accounting for past performance or anything like that, so it shouldn't be interpreted as such.
If they aren't even going to try, why bother posting this crap and opening themselves up to ridicule?

Not that anyone who has a sophisticated prediction model never gets ridiculed here. :whistle:

JorgeFabregas
04-21-2006, 03:05 PM
It's more interesting further into the season. You could figure out the same stuff with a calculator, but it should be pretty obvious what it is and is not projecting.

If 48, 72, or 93 games into the season you wanted to know how many RBIs Konerko was on pace for it's a bit easier to look it up than to do the calculations.

Fenway
04-21-2006, 03:08 PM
I really think he has a shot!

He won't even have 43 STARTS even for ESPN this is idiotic

Ol' No. 2
04-21-2006, 03:15 PM
He won't even have 43 STARTS even for ESPN this is idioticIt's down to 41 already. At 110.8 pitches per start, he's going to need a lot of linament.

JorgeFabregas
04-21-2006, 03:18 PM
Well, it's just a computer plugging in numbers. He has 4 wins, the Red Sox have played 16 games--a little less than 1/10th of their total. 162/16=10.125 or 10 and 1/8. 10.125 X 4 wins = 40.5 wins...he can't have half a win, so it's rounded up to 41, which is what their site currently projects. I'm guessing it's skewed because there are more days off in the early part of the season so they've been able to get him in more often than they will down the line.

MISoxfan
04-22-2006, 01:39 AM
So you're saying Thome won't hit 76 home runs? :o: :D:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4762

No way, he's going to hit 81 now.

Easy MVP .347 81 162

gbergman
04-22-2006, 04:26 AM
if that were true thome would get in 496 at bats 203 runs 172 hits 30 doubles 81 home runs 162 rbis and a .347 ba

DaGame2584
04-22-2006, 01:50 PM
Look at Fat Albert's projected #'s in St. Louis. 105 HRs!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6619

IlliniSox4Life
04-22-2006, 04:01 PM
I don't see why people are that upset about this. Projected simply means "if they were to continue playing at the exact same rate they are thus far into the season over the rest of the season, their projected stats are". It's not like they are BP and actually trying to determine the results of the season.