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View Full Version : Thome will only hit 16 more HRs this year


Thome's Homey
04-13-2006, 12:17 PM
So sayeth BP, high priests of the God that is Billy Beane:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=CHA

Flight #24
04-13-2006, 12:30 PM
So sayeth BP, high priests of the God that is Billy Beane:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=CHA

If they mean in the month of April, they're probably correct.

spiffie
04-13-2006, 01:04 PM
Hopefully they will be right about one thing, in that they say Thome and Anderson will have the same amount of HR. I could use 2 50-HR guys in our lineup this year.

Frater Perdurabo
04-13-2006, 01:53 PM
Mark Buehrle with a 13-12 record and a 4.10 ERA? :rolling:

Maybe BP needs to change their initials to TP, as in that which I use to clean my backside after defecating.
:kukoo:

Layla
04-13-2006, 03:19 PM
Well, if he said so it must be true.:rolleyes:

ondafarm
04-13-2006, 03:26 PM
They have nobody hitting above .280 and they also max homers at 32 for Konerko.

How a guy who hit 40 the past two years and added protection will get 20% worse is beyond me.

gbergman
04-13-2006, 03:29 PM
plus it says were only going to win 79 games

DaleJRFan
04-13-2006, 03:30 PM
:?: Ross Gload will hit 9 homers?? huh???

scottjanssens
04-13-2006, 04:03 PM
PECOTA works by comparing players past performance to other players who've had similar careers. Injuries really mess with PECOTA, so the Thome HR prediction isn't surprising. Also, it's important to note that PECOTA isn't saying that Paulie will hit 32 HR (he's on a pace for 18 at the moment). PECOTA is more about percentages. If you look at the full PECOTA breakdown of Konerko you'll see it's quite favorable and they expect him to improve this season in the stats that BP cares about (which isn't HRs). The projected stats aren't meant to be taken so seriously. They're right about 32% of the time (IIRC). That's the best success rate yet found. The stats are a game unto themselves. If you don't want to play, don't watch.

Even when complimented by BP, Sox fans are determined to find insult.

Flight #24
04-13-2006, 04:06 PM
They're right about 32% of the time (IIRC). That's the best success rate yet found.

Translation: It may be dog crap, but no one's invented anything that tastes better. So enjoy that dog crap sandwich!

scottjanssens
04-13-2006, 04:13 PM
Translation: It may be dog crap, but no one's invented anything that tastes better. So enjoy that dog crap sandwich!

No, most people who look at them take that into account. The statheads who do this do so because they find it fun. It's the same drive that led to meteorology. Most folks here read it as "We say Konerko will hit 32 HRs, and we're predictive gods so he'll damn well hit 32 HRs, not more, not less." when it's really, "We think there's a 40% chance Konerko's runs per game will increase making hime more valuable to the team. Throwing some numbers together we'll call it 32 HRs and see how that turns out."

It's reasonable to wonder why do it at all. As I said, they find the pursuit enjoyable.

And just so you know, the Sox have their very own stathead on staff. Forgot his name, but Reifert mentioned him the other day.

MarySwiss
04-13-2006, 05:07 PM
From now on, my response to every mention of BP.... :puking:

Where did that "blows chunks" guy image get to? The first time I could actually use him...! :angry:

Huisj
04-13-2006, 05:23 PM
I love how they always seem to predict that pitchers will be fairly average (.500 record, ERA in the 4-5 range) and how no one will hit for a real high or real low average, and how no team will win a ton of games and no team will lose a ton of games. That's really going out on a limb with predictions.

Here's a great strategy to come up with predicted stats for every team: make every team .500, and then add a few wins (not too many though) to the teams you think will be decent and take away a few from the ones who won't be, and you'll have just as good a set of predictions as BP but in 5 minutes or less.

miker
04-15-2006, 10:44 AM
Only one stat matters: "W"

Hey, that should be part of a great ad campaign...

rowand33
04-15-2006, 05:41 PM
those projections are legitimately hilarious.

No pitcher on our team has an ERA under 4 or more than 13 wins.

I'm actually amazed that someone got paid to make those projections.

jabrch
04-15-2006, 06:18 PM
10,000 monkeys pounding away at 10,000 keyboards for 10,000 years will eventually type the works of Shakespeare. 10,000 statheads pounding away at 10,000 keyboards for BP will eventually prove that they are still 10,000 monkeys.

RadioheadRocks
04-15-2006, 06:32 PM
So sayeth BP, high priests of the God that is Billy Beane:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=CHA


Apparently there are still a few copies floating around in the paper products aisle between White Cloud and Charmin. :rolling: :roflmao:

SoxSpeed22
04-15-2006, 06:43 PM
10,000 monkeys pounding away at 10,000 keyboards for 10,000 years will eventually type the works of Shakespeare. 10,000 statheads pounding away at 10,000 keyboards for BP will eventually prove that they are still 10,000 monkeys.http://www.cod.edu/dept/athletic/teams/soccer/alumni/_notes/burns.jpg
"It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times?! You stupid monkey!"

Flight #24
04-15-2006, 08:32 PM
No, most people who look at them take that into account. The statheads who do this do so because they find it fun. It's the same drive that led to meteorology. Most folks here read it as "We say Konerko will hit 32 HRs, and we're predictive gods so he'll damn well hit 32 HRs, not more, not less." when it's really, "We think there's a 40% chance Konerko's runs per game will increase making hime more valuable to the team. Throwing some numbers together we'll call it 32 HRs and see how that turns out."

It's reasonable to wonder why do it at all. As I said, they find the pursuit enjoyable.

And just so you know, the Sox have their very own stathead on staff. Forgot his name, but Reifert mentioned him the other day.

I'd go along with what you're saying, except that when it comes to their commentary, it's quite clear that they believe that their projections are the be-all/end-all. So for example, they'll say things like "Konerko's a bad signing at $12M because his stats indicate that he's likely to hit in the low 30s HRs rather than the 40 he did last year"*.

Doing what you say would be a good way to do it and a good way to use their data & methods. It's also what I believe most teams do - they don't ignore the stats, they just don't put their faith 100% behind a model that necessarily ignores a lot of factors. However, that's fairly well demonstrated to not be what the BP-ers do. They will tell you that because PECOTA, SCHMECOTA, and BULLCRACOTA indicate X, X is a fact.

*Note: I'm not saying that actually said that, it's just an example of the type of comment they frequently make.

infohawk
04-17-2006, 09:30 AM
Maybe BP needs to change their initials to TP, as in that which I use to clean my backside after defecating.
:kukoo:
That almost made me spit out my coffee! :roflmao:

nedlug
04-17-2006, 10:32 AM
Apparently, our closer has 3 saves and our setup man has 20?

The lowest ERA on our entire staff is 4.04?

Those PT%'s sure look like they were generated from a computer model. All multiples of 5...

:rolleyes:

nedlug
04-17-2006, 10:48 AM
One thing that I've never seen the statheads show is a sort of 'baserunning fear index' where they show how pitchers perform when they're on base (or how hitters behind them hit when they are and not on base). They can see which hitters improve with certain people on base, and can even extend that to 'protection' whereby someone gets better as the lineup behind them gets better.

Still, it seems like this stathead stuff is just way, way, too focused on OBP, OPS, and doesn't take into account factors that we all know DO have an effect on the game. I guarantee you that Sox fans will come around if all these factors were takin into account, but right now, these predictions are only good enough for the curb on Thursdays
.

Flight #24
04-17-2006, 11:44 AM
One thing that I've never seen the statheads show is a sort of 'baserunning fear index' where they show how pitchers perform when they're on base (or how hitters behind them hit when they are and not on base). They can see which hitters improve with certain people on base, and can even extend that to 'protection' whereby someone gets better as the lineup behind them gets better.

Still, it seems like this stathead stuff is just way, way, too focused on OBP, OPS, and doesn't take into account factors that we all know DO have an effect on the game. I guarantee you that Sox fans will come around if all these factors were takin into account, but right now, these predictions are only good enough for the curb on Thursdays
.

"We can't measure it. Therefore it doesn't exist."

FedEx227
04-17-2006, 01:56 PM
"Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything."
-- Toby Harrah

drewcifer
04-17-2006, 02:16 PM
"Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything."
-- Toby Harrah


Yeah but BP's projections are like a bikini without the girl. Not much to look at, if you can't see the fit.