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MERPER
04-05-2006, 12:32 AM
Game article on chicagosports.com has a good point.... Garcia pitched 228 innings last year... plus 22 more in playoffs... plus WBC...

I am not trying to be a dark cloud or panic, but his fastball wasn't there today... I don't think he topped 91 and often it was 89 or 90.. Hawk and DJ mentioned it as well.. He's got great breaking pitches, especially when he is throwing 93-94... but he can't survive on breaking stuff alone...

Is anyone concerned at all? I realize he's got 34 starts left and he'll probably be fine, but that right arm has thrown a lot of pitches over the past 12 months...

IlliniSox4Life
04-05-2006, 12:37 AM
No, I'm not concerned. 1 bad outing doesn't mean anything. He threw well in the WBC and spring training, there's nothing now to suggest that this isn't anything more than a bad outing.

Huisj
04-05-2006, 12:38 AM
Maybe he was tight from not being used to colder windy conditions. He had some rough starts here and there last year too. Hopefully he'll be ok.

mike squires
04-05-2006, 12:47 AM
If his velocity isn't there by May, McCarthy might get to start after all.

HomeFish
04-05-2006, 12:53 AM
All the starters had career years in 2005. It is generally not wise to assume that they can repeat those kinds of numbers. That's completely normal; players drop off after very good years. Its not necessarily their fault.

That said, Freddy was the starter last year who pitched closest to his historical norm. So if he regresses, that's more worrying than, say, Buehrle going from his 2005 self to his 2004 self. Of course, giving up walks and longballs is something that the 2005 Freddy did a lot last year too, especially early in homegames, so this isn't necessarily indicative of a regression.

Half Cocked Jack
04-05-2006, 01:00 AM
I'm not too worried. He's done this sort of thing before and bounced back.

DrummerGeorgefan
04-05-2006, 01:05 AM
I think the key to dealing with Freddy is bear with him through the 3rd inning or so. Last year, in many of the starts I watched he's shaky through about 3 innings; control is off, his ball lacks mustard and his head seems to be only god knows. For a prime example, think of the AJ-walk off game against LAD. He walked like 5 guys in the first 2 innings then settled down and was in control. Also, it looks like when he is down on himself, he overthrows the breaking ball, leaving it about 55 feet and forcing AJ to become Patrick Roy.

peeonwrigley
04-05-2006, 01:16 AM
From where I was it just looked like he had nothing today. No command and less-than-usual velocity.

By contrast, Westbrook looked great for the Tribe. That's gonna happen over 162 games. If Garcia doesn't get his act together over his next few starts, then I think its cause for concern.

Does anyone "labor" more than Garcia? I mean, he does it when he's pitching well and poorly, but maybe he could get in a little better shape? Maybe that's just his style, and he gets a good sweat going before games? I swear I thought he was a heart attack candidate during Game 3 in Boston last fall (weren't we all?). I don't know, just throwing that out there.

MERPER
04-05-2006, 01:22 AM
I am well familiar with Garcia's habits.... I know the first and second innings are his worst and that he is better on the road... he seems to struggle with control until later and he didn't have much control today either...

That being said, I am not concerned about his control.. I am concerned about the velocity.... maybe he just had trouble getting loose or something but if his fastball isn't back in the mid to low 90's in a couple more starts than he's got a problem...

StockdaleForVeep
04-05-2006, 01:34 AM
yeah and look at pujols, he played in the wbc and he's been just horrid so far start of the season

lostletters
04-05-2006, 01:52 AM
1.
I think Freddy may be a week behind his regular schedule because of the WBC. I think this threw him off with his preparedness.
2.
Freddy is two things: a warm weather pitcher and an away pitcher. He is the white sox road warrior.
3.
It is still think it is to early to worry. The problems may be gone in a week.

4. It is early in the season. Not all starters will be on all cylinders this early. Remember, it was Garland and Buerhle that carried the sox at this point last season. This year I think JC and JV will be doing some of the heavy lifting as well. That is the beauty of five starters, if one has a couple of tough outings you are still winning games.

TheOldRoman
04-05-2006, 03:09 AM
Freddy just needs a haircut. After that, he will be fine. No worries.

BNLSox
04-05-2006, 04:06 AM
Freddy just needs a haircut. After that, he will be fine. No worries.

Amen brother!

Freddy looked like we've seen him look so many times before. Remember folks, this isn't post season baseball. We're going to lose 40% of the time at least. And if for some reason Freddy doesn't bounce back (highly doubtful) we've got starting depth.

I think we just need to get all the 2005 celebrating over with and start living for the now.

On a side note, baseball came so much faster this year... its a shorter winter when you get to watch all of september and october with full interest!!

SOXSINCE'70
04-05-2006, 07:53 AM
I'm not worried yet.Check with me after he has a few more starts.
But I will tell you that he looked like he got tired during that 3 run
4th inning.:(: Normally,If Garcia gets through the first 3 innings without
giving up more than 2 runs,he settles in.Not the case Tuesday.:(:

jenn2080
04-05-2006, 08:09 AM
It is the second game of the year and the first game he pitched. The worried thought has not even crossed my mind yet.

oeo
04-05-2006, 08:55 AM
He will be fine, just didn't have it yesterday. We need to get that man in some warm, road conditions.

mccoydp
04-05-2006, 08:59 AM
Meh...he really didn't do any worse than Andy Pettite yesterday...or Barry Zito the day before...he'll be fine; just needs to get his head in the game.

EndemicSox
04-05-2006, 09:15 AM
[quote=HomeFish]All the starters had career years in 2005. It is generally not wise to assume that they can repeat those kinds of numbers. That's completely normal; players drop off after very good years. Its not necessarily their fault.

That said, Freddy was the starter last year who pitched closest to his historical norm. So if he regresses, that's more worrying than, say, Buehrle going from his 2005 self to his 2004 self. Of course, giving up walks and longballs is something that the 2005 Freddy did a lot last year too, especially early in homegames, so this isn't necessarily indicative of a regression.[/quote

Right on, one of our guys will porbably have a down year.

caulfield12
04-05-2006, 09:40 AM
Psychologically, we are all ready for Garland and Contreras to come back to earth a little bit, and we saw Garland pitch more normally in the second half for him, although his ERA was decent, he just didnīt pick up the wins so easily.

That leaves Vazquez and McCarthy to pick up the slack for any slippage, as you figure you are going to usually get historical norms from Buehrle and Garcia...although I would like to see Mark lowers his hits per IP ratio this season...he balances it by working fast and not walking anyone. Like Zito, MB can get killed when his location is off or has to pitch from behind in the count...because he doesnīt have that killer curve or fastball to recover as easily. Zito looked horrible on Opening Day....heīs just not the same pitcher he was 2-3 years ago when Mulder and Hudson were around...and Harden got hit pretty hard last night as well.

Jurr
04-05-2006, 09:44 AM
Amen brother!

Freddy looked like we've seen him look so many times before. Remember folks, this isn't post season baseball. We're going to lose 40% of the time at least. And if for some reason Freddy doesn't bounce back (highly doubtful) we've got starting depth.

I think we just need to get all the 2005 celebrating over with and start living for the now.

On a side note, baseball came so much faster this year... its a shorter winter when you get to watch all of september and october with full interest!!

Well said. It's been a freaking circus so far this year. Things will get better when they get back to normal.

windycityson
04-05-2006, 10:26 AM
Totally Agree...

Bnners raised, Rings on the Dresser, Time to do it all over again!!! GO SOX

soxfan13
04-05-2006, 10:30 AM
Think he will be fine rotoworld is reporting it might just be a case of dead arm which all pitchers go thru at some point in the spring

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&leaguenum=&id=2739

viagracat
04-05-2006, 10:45 AM
You know Coop will keep a sharp eye on Garcia. I wouldn't worry too much about it. It was cold and windy yesterday, and maybe he was a little nervous. Even Koufax had a bad outing every now and then.:cubune

kittle42
04-05-2006, 11:04 AM
Think he will be fine rotoworld is reporting it might just be a case of dead arm which all pitchers go thru at some point in the spring

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&leaguenum=&id=2739

That's not surprising. Hawk and DJ were discussing his lack of velocity (he was topping out around 88), and they were basically saying "well, if soft tossing is the way you're going to get through this, he'll have to have pinpoint control."

alohafri
04-05-2006, 11:06 AM
The XM guys were talking about it this morning. They weren't concerned. They actually said that early April is a fairly common time for "dead arm."

Hitmen77
04-05-2006, 11:07 AM
At this point in time, I'd be more worried if I were a Indians fan - their #1 starter just went on the DL - and I don't think they have a Brandon McCarthy waiting in the wings.

I hope Garcia will be ok. I don't quite understand the "he couldn't get warmed up and break a sweat" explanaion.

DannyCaterFan
04-05-2006, 11:19 AM
I think there is more to it than this just being his first outing. I watched him in the WBC and in spring training and I was amazed at the change in his style. His velocity is way down. He averaged around 84 mph yesterday and had nothing. Could be that his innings ptched over the past few seasons have caught up with him, or possibly he may have some pain. I hope I am wrong, but he is not the same pitcher right now!

DeadMoney
04-05-2006, 11:50 AM
Think he will be fine rotoworld is reporting it might just be a case of dead arm which all pitchers go thru at some point in the spring

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&leaguenum=&id=2739
Interesting. I was telling my roomate the same thing yesterday after the game and figured this was the case just because of not having the proper amount of innings and throwing time in spring training due to the WBC. At least I hoped/hope it is the case.

edit: To clarify what I was thinking:
I came to this conclusion because he was late to ST and had 1 start before leaving for the WBC. During the WBC he pitched, but probably wasn't getting the proper side work and throwing time in because of the situation. He came back to ST and threw in a few starts, but one was against a AAA Colorado team because of the bad weather. Normally, some pitchers go through their dead arm periods late in ST and are ready to go for the season. This could (and as I said, I'm hoping) be Garcia's "late" ST and he could be going through that.

Ol' No. 2
04-05-2006, 11:58 AM
All the starters had career years in 2005. It is generally not wise to assume that they can repeat those kinds of numbers. That's completely normal; players drop off after very good years. Its not necessarily their fault.

That said, Freddy was the starter last year who pitched closest to his historical norm. So if he regresses, that's more worrying than, say, Buehrle going from his 2005 self to his 2004 self. Of course, giving up walks and longballs is something that the 2005 Freddy did a lot last year too, especially early in homegames, so this isn't necessarily indicative of a regression.What the hell are you talking about? Who had a career year? Garland? Anyone who talks about a "career year" for a 25 year old should be beaten with a trout. Contreras? Just returned to previous form. Buehrle? Nope. Garcia? Nope. Hernandez? *****

caulfield12
04-05-2006, 12:09 PM
If I was heading for Vegas, I would be betting on Contreras ending up with more wins than Garland, but I have never been a huge JG fans like some Sox fans.

Thereīs no reason to expect either Garland or Contreras to have less than 200 IP or ERAīs higher than 4.00, but stranger things have happened. Just ask those Cubs fans who had pencilled in a dynasty with Zambrano, Wood and Prior leading them to WS titles year after year.

I think we all believe Vazquez can be the Loaiza of 2003 or the Garland-Contreras of 2005. Itīs almost SO predictable it wonīt happen, right?

And we all know what Brandon is capable of doing...

As far as Sabathia goes, I just hope they donīt strike gold with Fausto Carmona as the fifth starter (replacing Johnson) and end up having as strong a rotation as what we can put out there on an everyday basis. Looks like the Indians might have been smart to ditch Millwood....heīs only had one start in TEX, but he just didnīt seem to me like the kind of pitcher you invested $12 million per year over so many seasons.

Chicken Dinner
04-05-2006, 12:17 PM
At any one given point, any of our starters can get pounded. Buehrle by far has been the most consistant, but he's been lit up too. It far too early to see if a trend is building so hang on and let the rotation go through a few cycles.

SBSoxFan
04-05-2006, 12:22 PM
What the hell are you talking about? Who had a career year? Garland? Anyone who talks about a "career year" for a 25 year old should be beaten with a trout. Contreras? Just returned to previous form. Buehrle? Nope. Garcia? Nope. Hernandez? *****
Thank you. I thought I was gonna have to restate my regression-to-the-mean diatribe. Contreras, however, actually changed his form (arm angle) in the middle of last season, which, as all good stat heads should know :rolleyes: requires a modification of the mean.

batmanZoSo
04-05-2006, 12:32 PM
What the hell are you talking about? Who had a career year? Garland? Anyone who talks about a "career year" for a 25 year old should be beaten with a trout. Contreras? Just returned to previous form. Buehrle? Nope. Garcia? Nope. Hernandez? *****

I have a sharp pie graph that totally debunks that whole argument of yours. :cool:

ondafarm
04-05-2006, 12:42 PM
Garcia didn't have it yesterday and that happens, especially during the first month of the season. Should he string together eight or nine bad outings in a row I'd be worried, until that time, I'm not.

DSpivack
04-05-2006, 12:47 PM
I have a sharp pie graph that totally debunks that whole argument of yours. :cool:

Mmmmmmmmm, pie. :wink:

oeo
04-05-2006, 12:47 PM
What the hell are you talking about? Who had a career year? Garland? Anyone who talks about a "career year" for a 25 year old should be beaten with a trout. Contreras? Just returned to previous form. Buehrle? Nope. Garcia? Nope. Hernandez? *****

HomeFish is really starting to turn back to his old form...

Ol' No. 2
04-05-2006, 01:07 PM
Thank you. I thought I was gonna have to restate my regression-to-the-mean diatribe. Contreras, however, actually changed his form (arm angle) in the middle of last season, which, as all good stat heads should know :rolleyes: requires a modification of the mean.McCarthy had a career year in 2005, also.:rolleyes:

Tannerfan
04-05-2006, 01:15 PM
2 other good pitchers got lit up yesterday. Lacky for the Angels, and Andy Petite gave up a billion runs to the Marlins. This stuff happens early on.

Lip Man 1
04-05-2006, 01:32 PM
Folks:

Freddy Garcia has NEVER pitched well at Comiskey Park....doesn't matter if it is during the day or night. Why do you think Ozzie set up the post season rotation so that every one of his starts took place on the road?

If Garcia starts to struggle on the road where he generally pitches much better and if his velocity isn't back up to par on May 1st you have an issue....till then I'm not going to be concerned.

Lip

he gone!
04-10-2006, 05:04 AM
freddy is gonna be fine.

Steelrod
04-10-2006, 05:12 AM
Folks:

Freddy Garcia has NEVER pitched well at Comiskey Park....doesn't matter if it is during the day or night. Why do you think Ozzie set up the post season rotation so that every one of his starts took place on the road?

If Garcia starts to struggle on the road where he generally pitches much better and if his velocity isn't back up to par on May 1st you have an issue....till then I'm not going to be concerned.

Lip
Could be a WBC effect. Spring training not a normal progression. He'l be fine once he gets bach on track.

kevingrt
04-10-2006, 05:14 PM
Freddy sure as hell looked fine today. I know it was a day game and he is money usually minus his last outing, but Freddy will be fine during the season. Especially when August and September come, Freddy will be rolling.

HomeFish
04-10-2006, 05:32 PM
What the hell are you talking about? Who had a career year? Garland? Anyone who talks about a "career year" for a 25 year old should be beaten with a trout. Contreras? Just returned to previous form. Buehrle? Nope. Garcia? Nope. Hernandez? *****

The trout beating should perhaps go to the one who says that Contreras had a "previous form" in his MLB career that was anything like his second half of 2005. He's never had that sort of success as a starter over half a season. Not in the Majors. Say what you want about Garland, but his 2005 numbers were highly divergent from his historical norm and, whatever he's age, he'd been in the majors for 5 years. Buehrle posted a career-low ERA. And I already argued that Garcia did not in fact have a career year.

TDog
04-11-2006, 04:24 AM
All the starters had career years in 2005. It is generally not wise to assume that they can repeat those kinds of numbers. ....

Anybody who says anyone had a career year last year loses credibility.

I would have more respect if you said these guys were just lucky last year and all got lucky at the same time and the Sox were lucky they didn't finish third or fourth. At least you would be expressing an honest opinion.

You may expect Garland not to pitch well this year, or Garcia or Contreras to get shelled or even Buehrle to stop being consistent, but this analytical cliche is a crutch for people who question the ability of players who perform at a high level. It also demeans the players' efforts.

Make a list of all the players who had career years last year and all the players who didn't have career years last year. Come back in 10 years and we'll analyze your analysis.

ilsox7
04-11-2006, 04:36 AM
Anybody who says anyone had a career year last year loses credibility.



No one around here respects Homefish, so it's not like he is losing anything.