View Full Version : Rowand: Off the charts in CF?

04-03-2006, 03:56 PM
I'm agnostic (so far) in the Aaron vs. Brian debate, but I do believe Anderson has big challenges ahead in CF. According to a story in the NY Times (link (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/sports/baseball/02score.html)), Baseball Info Solutions rates Rowand orders of magnitude better than other outfielders, using analysis that sounds pretty exhaustive. For the past three years, they've measured the speed and location of every MLB hit on an 8000-pixel grid, deriving a stat that apparently lacks a catchy name but is way more reliable than fielding percentage.

Rowand, who impressed on defense last season with few meaningful statistics to show for it, actually led all major league outfielders in 2005 with a +30, meaning he saved the equivalent of 30 singles and extra-base hits from falling in the outfield. On offense, that would translate to 60 points in batting average and about 100 points in slugging percentage. The three Gold Glove winners Vernon Wells (+4), Torii Hunter (+5) or Ichiro Suzuki (+7) did not fare nearly as well.
Sounds kind of like the +/- stat in hockey . . . The fact that Bernie Williams rates a -78 makes me think they're on to something. :cool:

Do those of the stat-head persuasion put any stock in this measurement?


04-03-2006, 03:57 PM
Ha, I read that Sunday as well. I wonder if that fellow noticed the bad routes while reviewing every single ball hit to Rowand.

04-03-2006, 03:59 PM
After today's game, I would imagine Adam Dunn is a -574

04-03-2006, 04:11 PM
Can i make a motion that all rowand talk either be moved to the baseball discussion forum or ****housed? Hes not on this team anymore, i dont see any frank thomas update threads here, they are where they belong, in the parkinglot cuz he's an oakland A

04-03-2006, 04:12 PM
Problem is, no statistics have come along to record, case by case, which fielders convert which batted balls into outs.

This is only true so far as the public is concerned. There are many stats of all stripes that MLB teams pay for from companies such as STATS Inc. (I won't get into MLB's claims that they own all stats derived from MLB games.)

You can't evaluate this trade until Anderson's numbers are determined, both defensive and offensive. Add to that the offensive numbers of Thome and I think the trade will work out well for the Sox. That is, assuming that the defensive change does give up some extra hits and runs, how does that compare to the hits and runs gained by getting Thome.

It's ridiculous to use a single stat to judge a trade when you don't have that stat for one of the players. On top of that, there's nothing inherently wrong trading a bit of defense for offense.

My gut feeling is this will be another win/win trade ala Lee/Podsednik.

04-03-2006, 04:36 PM
cool system. yes BA isnt going to be as good but i think he will still fair well enough in center to make atleast a 6 or so