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Mr. White Sox
03-08-2006, 01:22 PM
Here... (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4834)
A pretty grim outlook injury-wise for 2006 according to our friends at BP.

spiffie
03-08-2006, 01:28 PM
No worse really than any other contending team's outlook. Check out the one for the Angels. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4788

I think everybody including KW knows we had a very good year last season in regards to major injuries. And that's why he has shored up things. Between Cintron and Mackowiak we could probably handle the loss of a couple of position starters to injury, and McCarthy provides great insurance for a starting pitchers loss, and between Jenks, Hermanson, and possibly even Politte we have enough closer material should that be needed.

White Sox Randy
03-08-2006, 01:29 PM
That was pretty realistic. I'm sure that it looks like that for most teams or worse.

Let's face it, the Sox were very lucky with their health last year.

The only thing that they could do, is what they have done. They added respectable backups and some AAA veteran insurance. That's all you can do.

Iwritecode
03-08-2006, 01:37 PM
1B Paul Konerko: Konerko has a lower back problem, and though he was healthy last year, we don't like that he'll be a year older.

He has a lower back problem? Did I miss that somewhere?

Now that Jim Thome is on the roster, Konerko won't have the luxury of being able to DH with any regularity.

Right. Because that Thome guy can't play first at all. I think they have him confused with Thomas.

D. TODD
03-08-2006, 01:41 PM
Anybody can get hurt, but I do not see Konerko as an increased injury risk.

Mr. White Sox
03-08-2006, 01:42 PM
I agree with the injury assessment, aside from a couple of players (AJ, Konerko, Vasquez and I think Contreras will be okay, at least injury-wise) I think it is relatively accurate. I'm incredibly nervous for Jermaine Dye and Pods, and hopefully they can stay healthy (and produce) for the whole season.

soxfan26
03-08-2006, 01:44 PM
our friends at BP.

:tealtutor:

soxfan26
03-08-2006, 01:48 PM
I agree with the injury assessment, aside from a couple of players (AJ, Konerko, Vasquez and I think Contreras will be okay, at least injury-wise) I think it is relatively accurate. I'm incredibly nervous for Jermaine Dye and Pods, and hopefully they can stay healthy (and produce) for the whole season.
Their "assessment" is a steaming pile.

:whoflungpoo

Mr. White Sox
03-08-2006, 01:55 PM
Their "assessment" is a steaming pile.


They're simply assessing risk, it's not as though they're saying "the dudes with red lights are going to get hurt." Jenks is a risk because of his stuff, and Dye is a risk because of past durability issues. Pods is a risk because of groin surgery, and so on and so forth. I don't see why Contreras is considered a gigantic risk, and I disagree with Konerko, AJ, and Vasquez, but all in all this is an assessment, not a prediction.

soxfan26
03-08-2006, 02:04 PM
They're simply assessing risk, it's not as though they're saying "the dudes with red lights are going to get hurt." Jenks is a risk because of his stuff, and Dye is a risk because of past durability issues. Pods is a risk because of groin surgery, and so on and so forth. I don't see why Contreras is considered a gigantic risk, and I disagree with Konerko, AJ, and Vasquez, but all in all this is an assessment, not a prediction.

I always find it amusing when the propellerheads use statistics to try and make sense of the world around them. When they resort to wild guesses they are less entertaining.

maurice
03-08-2006, 03:20 PM
I don't think the Sox were as lucky as most reports claim. They always omit the extremely serious injury to Thomas, the best player in team history (and a good chunk of the '05 payroll). They also forget that the Sox paid $1 million to a catcher who was injured and didn't play a single inning. (In retrospect, the AJ signing was a HUGE key to the season. Otherwise, the Sox would have gone through the 2005 season with a waiver-wire catching combo of Widger / Burke.) Other players played through injuries but experienced diminished production. Hernandez missed several starts and declined from his hot start. Hermanson fell off the map after his back started acting up. Crede went into a huge slump and missed some time (but came back strong for the playoffs). Podsednik missed time and never regained his elite basestealing ability.

The Sox main advantage is that they have a core of healthy starting pitchers. This is not luck. In recent years, KW has focused on acquiring / retaining starters who consistently pitch 200+ innings without serious injury. This year was no exception (Vazquez). He wouldn't dream of throwing away tens of millions of dollars on a guy like Kerry Wood.

ondafarm
03-08-2006, 03:58 PM
I don't think the Sox were as lucky as most reports claim. They always omit the extremely serious injury to Thomas, the best player in team history (and a good chunk of the '05 payroll). They also forget that the Sox paid $1 million to a catcher who was injured and didn't play a single inning. (In retrospect, the AJ signing was a HUGE key to the season. Otherwise, the Sox would have gone through the 2005 season with a waiver-wire catching combo of Widger / Burke.) Other players played through injuries but experienced diminished production. Hernandez missed several starts and declined from his hot start. Hermanson fell off the map after his back started acting up. Crede went into a huge slump and missed some time (but came back strong for the playoffs). Podsednik missed time and never regained his elite basestealing ability.

The Sox main advantage is that they have a core of healthy starting pitchers. This is not luck. In recent years, KW has focused on acquiring / retaining starters who consistently pitch 200+ innings without serious injury. This year was no exception (Vazquez). He wouldn't dream of throwing away tens of millions of dollars on a guy like Kerry Wood.

Mark today's date down: I agree with Maurice.

Factors they totally missed.

Herm Schneider is not well-regarded. He's regarded as the best in the game.

Ozzie Guillen committed from day one to get everybody time off last year. Regular time and good quality time. A 162-game season is grueling. Each player knew he'd get regular time off and that his job wasn't in jeporady because of it. Players in more difficult positions, catchers, center fielders, SS and 2nd got a little more time off than the others.

The lineup was purposely flexible enough to allow lefty and righty dominant lineups. This rested virtually everyone against stressful outings.

Pods and Dye's injuries should be non-recurring.

Thome being here eases the burden on Konerko, who did play nearly every game last year.

The Sox did so bang-up in the playoffs in part because they were far and away the best rested team.

samram
03-08-2006, 04:14 PM
It's not a horrible assessment, although this has me scratching my head:

Though it's not relevant to our THR rank, we have to wonder if AJ's bad history with trainers (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3726) means he's due for a My Name is Earl (http://www.nbc.com/My_Name_Is_Earl/)-style karmic butt-kicking.

Do tell, Will Carroll, which sabremetric measures karma?:rolleyes:

santo=dorf
03-08-2006, 04:33 PM
Wait, wait, wait. Contreras' high walk totals are now due to his arm reliability, not his mental strength, or tipping his pitches? :?:

Jjav829
03-08-2006, 04:36 PM
1B Paul Konerko: Konerko has a lower back problem, and though he was healthy last year, we don't like that he'll be a year older.
I don't like that he'll be a year older either. Maybe we can make him a year younger.

JohnBasedowYoda
03-08-2006, 04:42 PM
Here... (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4834)
A pretty grim outlook injury-wise for 2006 according to our friends at BP.

Good find. I think our staff can keep everything in order. Also, Ozzie is very good at keeping guys well rested and keeping them fresh.

I just hope Pods is fully healed and replicate what he was doing at the beginning of the season in' 05.

spiffie
03-08-2006, 04:47 PM
Mark today's date down: I agree with Maurice.

Factors they totally missed.

Herm Schneider is not well-regarded. He's regarded as the best in the game.

Ozzie Guillen committed from day one to get everybody time off last year. Regular time and good quality time. A 162-game season is grueling. Each player knew he'd get regular time off and that his job wasn't in jeporady because of it. Players in more difficult positions, catchers, center fielders, SS and 2nd got a little more time off than the others.

The lineup was purposely flexible enough to allow lefty and righty dominant lineups. This rested virtually everyone against stressful outings.

Pods and Dye's injuries should be non-recurring.

Thome being here eases the burden on Konerko, who did play nearly every game last year.

The Sox did so bang-up in the playoffs in part because they were far and away the best rested team.
All of this is true, but so much of baseball injury is pure bad luck. All the rest in the world won't stop a line drive from hitting Mark in the wrist and putting him out for 2 months if that's the way bad luck is going to run.

With Dye, I think there's enough of a history there to at least consider it a worry. Last year was really the last time he was healthy enough to play at his full potential since the end of 2001.

If there's a knock to put against this, it's simply that it is one of those things where you can say "DUH!". Baseball's injuries are so much a product of flukes (except the yearly injuries to Cub pitchers seemingly) that to try and project anything for more than 10% of players (those with extremely relevant medical conditions) is a crapshoot.

Lip Man 1
03-08-2006, 04:52 PM
Why does ANYBODY waste their time and money on that crapola magazine / newspaper?

I'll get more accurate information consulting a farm animal.

Let's hear it for the propeller heads!

Please...

Lip

Scottiehaswheels
03-08-2006, 05:52 PM
This is the same group that said we'd be 81-81 this coming year right? they have to make that work somehow

MarySwiss
03-08-2006, 06:07 PM
Sheesh! You gotta love it! They admit they "missed the boat" last year, but it doesn't seem to stop them from doing their level damndest to miss it again!

ondafarm
03-09-2006, 05:22 PM
All of this is true, but so much of baseball injury is pure bad luck. All the rest in the world won't stop a line drive from hitting Mark in the wrist and putting him out for 2 months if that's the way bad luck is going to run.

With Dye, I think there's enough of a history there to at least consider it a worry. Last year was really the last time he was healthy enough to play at his full potential since the end of 2001.

If there's a knock to put against this, it's simply that it is one of those things where you can say "DUH!". Baseball's injuries are so much a product of flukes (except the yearly injuries to Cub pitchers seemingly) that to try and project anything for more than 10% of players (those with extremely relevant medical conditions) is a crapshoot.

I think you are ascribing too much to luck.

In my experience, most injuries occur have a cause which is preventable. Very few line-drive injuries occur at the start of the season when the players are better rested. Even though the ball does come at a pitcher very fast, he typically has enough time to at least lighten the blow. Not saying it can't happen, but an in-focus pitcher who is mentally prepared will be able to at least reduce the damage. Same with a batter.

Most things like hammys and such come from improper training or inadequate stretching. Schneider insures the Sox have both.

A lot of players get serious injuries when they are carrying small injuries. It's called over-compensating and it is the cause of a lot more injuries than the casual fan realizes. That's why Ozzie gives so much rest during the season. If you allow the little stuff to heal, it never becomes a big injury.

With Dye, he was fine in Atlanta, where they have a good trainer and seemed to have perpetual trouble in Oakland and KC, where the training quality is somewhat less.

Althouh injuries will occur on every team, I'm quite confident the Sox will keep their injuries below league average again in 2006.