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View Full Version : Javier Vazquez: Ace?


SoLongFrank
02-20-2006, 03:16 PM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-060219sox,1,6541239.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines
I'm pretty high on the acquisition of Vazquez. I think his talent for throwing strikes & fooling hitters combined with AJ & Widger is going to shock the Yank$ out of the shoes. It won't be easy reading the paper in NYC & realizing they gave up on this kind of talent. It's going to have a LOT of people questioning the organization there when it happens.

The Cubune listed his 2005 highlights:
6+ innings: 24/33 starts. 23/33 starts gave up 3 runs or less.
11.77 era in first 3 starts, career-high 35 HR's allowed.
1.50 era in next 7 starts, 2.52 era in final 5 starts.

That explains how a pitcher of his talent can wind up with a 4.42 era.

Other facts:
D'backs scored 1R or less in 14/15 of his losses
Went 54 1/3 consecutive innings w/out surrrendering a walk.

Perhaps HR's given up is the biggest concern not just for Javier but the whole staff. 1st half + 2nd half

Mark: 8HR + 12HR
Fred: 13HR + 13HR
Jon: 11HR + 15 HR
Jose: 16HR + 7HR
Javier: 15HR + 20HR

The rest of the ALC?

CLE Sabathia 9 + 10
CLE Westbrook 12 + 7
CLE Lee 13 + 9
CLE Byrd 11 + 11
CLE Johnson 11 + 12

MIN Santana 15 + 7
MIN Radke 20 + 13
MIN Silva 16 + 9
MIN Lohse 10 + 12

DET Rogers 7 + 8
DET Bonderman 14 + 7
DET Maroth 16 + 14
DET Robertson 6 + 22

KAN Greinke 11 + 12
KAN Hernandez 8 + 10
KAN Elarton 16 + 16
KAN Mays 15 + 8 26 starts

Flight #24
02-20-2006, 03:55 PM
Submitted for discussion:

Overall for 2005, Vazquez's line was:
213.1IP, 4.48ERA, 1.25WHIP, 4.17K/BB, 8.1 K/9

In 6 individual starts scattered throughout the year, he posted:
23.5IP, 16.47ERA, 2.68 WHIP, 2.4K/BB, 9.2 K/9

In the remaining 27 starts, he posted:
189.6IP, 2.99ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 4.67 K/BB, 7.97 K/9

Them's ace caliber #s on that last line. If you give me those stats along with a handful of starts from Felix Diaz, I'd still consider that a pretty great year.

The other interesting note is that breakdown is surprisingly similar to those of one Jose Contreras pre-2005. Looks to me like mental breakdowns, something that I believe Ozzie & Coop have proven particularly good at addressing.

Ol' No. 2
02-20-2006, 04:25 PM
Submitted for discussion:

Overall for 2005, Vazquez's line was:
213.1IP, 4.48ERA, 1.25WHIP, 4.17K/BB, 8.1 K/9

In 6 individual starts scattered throughout the year, he posted:
23.5IP, 16.47ERA, 2.68 WHIP, 2.4K/BB, 9.2 K/9

In the remaining 27 starts, he posted:
189.6IP, 2.99ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 4.67 K/BB, 7.97 K/9

Them's ace caliber #s on that last line. If you give me those stats along with a handful of starts from Felix Diaz, I'd still consider that a pretty great year.

The other interesting note is that breakdown is surprisingly similar to those of one Jose Contreras pre-2005. Looks to me like mental breakdowns, something that I believe Ozzie & Coop have proven particularly good at addressing.I expect a lot of pitchers would look much better with 6 mulligans. That said, I agree that his history in Montreal indicates he has it in him to be a stud starter. If Cooper can work his magic on Vazquez, expect Steinbrenner to back up a Brink's truck to Coop's house to try to get him to come to NY.

Hitmen77
02-20-2006, 06:39 PM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-060219sox,1,6541239.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines
I'm pretty high on the acquisition of Vazquez. I think his talent for throwing strikes & fooling hitters combined with AJ & Widger is going to shock the Yank$ out of the shoes. .....


Perhaps HR's given up is the biggest concern not just for Javier but the whole staff. 1st half + 2nd half

Mark: 8HR + 12HR
Fred: 13HR + 13HR
Jon: 11HR + 15 HR
Jose: 16HR + 7HR
Javier: 15HR + 20HR

The rest of the ALC? ...


Remember though that the other 4 Sox starters had these HR #s pitching half of their games at the homer-friendly Cell. Vazquez's numbers are not Cell-inflated. That's one concern I have with Javier - that one of his weak points is giving up alot of dingers and now having to pitch in a HR-friendly park.

SouthSide_HitMen
02-20-2006, 06:53 PM
Remember though that the other 4 Sox starters had these HR #s pitching half of their games at the homer-friendly Cell. Vazquez's numbers are not Cell-inflated. That's one concern I have with Javier - that one of his weak points is giving up alot of dingers and now having to pitch in a HR-friendly park.

Arizona is a very HR friendly park - even more so than Comiskey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2005

Bank One - 5th in MLB, US Cellular 6th.

He also pitched at division rival Colorado.

Then again, he did pitch in the weak NL and several divisional road games were in pitching friendly parks (Sand Diego, Los Angeles & San Francisco).

I think he will pitch well and has a good upside but will not be our Ace as long as Buehrle is on the team.

Realist
02-20-2006, 07:03 PM
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/pressbox/photos/headshots_players_coaches/112653_90x135.jpg
Keep the ball down.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_134320.jpg
Okay.

SOXintheBURGH
02-20-2006, 07:21 PM
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/pressbox/photos/headshots_players_coaches/112653_90x135.jpg
Keep the ball down.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_134320.jpg
Okay.

Precisely.

I'm a big WHIP guy too. This may prove to be KWs best move of all time. A prospect and an aging hero for a possible ACE. I love you, Kenny.

itsnotrequired
02-20-2006, 07:24 PM
Precisely.

I'm a big WHIP guy too. This may prove to be KWs best move of all time. A prospect and an aging hero for a possible ACE. I love you, Kenny.

If Vaquez pans out, it will be yet another piece of Yankee "trash" that Coop has turned around. I wonder who the Yankees are looking to dump?

http://seinfeld-fan.net/pictures/other/seinfeld_other014.jpg

"I don't work when its raining."

California Sox
02-20-2006, 07:24 PM
In 6 individual starts scattered throughout the year, he posted: 23.5IP, 16.47ERA, 2.68 WHIP, 2.4K/BB, 9.2 K/9

I think my fantasy team had him for all six of those starts. Six guaranteed losses I might add: the average is like 4IP 7ER 11H+BB 4SO. Bleah.

Vazquez is a serious enigma. It's possible that his overall numbers will be helped by the man whose rotation spot he took. With a long man like McCarthy and a history of having days where he just does not have it, perhaps Vazquez's stats will benefit from a few quick hooks.

Hitmen77
02-20-2006, 07:43 PM
Arizona is a very HR friendly park - even more so than Comiskey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2005

Bank One - 5th in MLB, US Cellular 6th.

He also pitched at division rival Colorado.

Then again, he did pitch in the weak NL and several divisional road games were in pitching friendly parks (Sand Diego, Los Angeles & San Francisco).

I think he will pitch well and has a good upside but will not be our Ace as long as Buehrle is on the team.

Thanks for the info.

If Vazquez has a good year with the Sox, then this team really has a chance to do some damage in the AL in '06.

cburns
02-20-2006, 08:29 PM
Does anyone know how the Arizona bullpen performed last season? Maybe Javier got left in b/c he was their best option and got his #'s jacked up b/c of it.

gobears1987
02-20-2006, 08:31 PM
Thanks for the info.

If Vazquez has a good year with the Sox, then this team really has a chance to do some damage in the AL in '06.And if he doesn't, then BMac will gladly take his spot.

delben91
02-20-2006, 08:41 PM
And if he doesn't, then Fingernails on a blackboard will gladly take his spot.

Intentional or not, this post is classic.

soxinem1
02-20-2006, 09:14 PM
Stuff-wise, he probably has the best on the team, and may be the first 200 K in a season pitcher we've had since Alex Fernandez.

But with this guy it is a consistency thing. To have his kind of stuff, even with being around the plate as much as he is, he should learn not to groove so many. He also gives up a ton of hits.

Every pitcher can say 'if I had those three games, or four games, or five games back' excuse. If so, about 30 bullpen guys would have 0.90 ERA's and another 50 starters would be 2.50 or less.

In the words of Hawk (or something similar), 10-15 starts you have great stuff, 10-15 starts you have OK stuff. It's the other 10-15 you have to get by on pure stones. This guy needs to learn how to pitch a little.

But things have a funny way of working themselves out. Garland started as the number five guy last year and he responded well. Maybe this year, it is Vasquez' turn....

kevin57
02-20-2006, 09:55 PM
Just imagine if Vazquez as the #5 starter has the kind of year talked about here, and let's assume the other starters are very good (but not necessarily A+ in 2006)...this year is going to be soooooooo much fun. :bandance:

IlliniSox4Life
02-20-2006, 10:09 PM
Just imagine if Vazquez as the #5 starter has the kind of year talked about here, and let's assume the other starters are very good (but not necessarily A+ in 2006)...this year is going to be soooooooo much fun. :bandance:

and Brandon McCarthy becomes the first #6 starter to win the Cy Young.

rdivaldi
02-20-2006, 10:09 PM
Thanks for the info.

If Vazquez has a good year with the Sox, then this team really has a chance to do some damage in the AL in '06.

Damn straight. We might even win the World Series! When was the last time we did that again?

j/k...

Hitmen77
02-20-2006, 11:40 PM
Damn straight. We might even win the World Series! When was the last time we did that again?

j/k...

I think 2006 will be a good year for them to win the World Series "again" (in other words, back-to-back) for the first time ever. :cool:

santo=dorf
02-20-2006, 11:55 PM
Does anyone know how the Arizona bullpen performed last season? Maybe Javier got left in b/c he was their best option and got his #'s jacked up b/c of it.

Pretty ****ty. Dead last in the MLB with a bullpen ERA of 5.50. Dead last in the MLB in bullpen WHIP with 1.57. Dead last in the MLB bullpen in SLG% against with .459.

Let's look at some of Javy's losses and no decisions from last season:
WSH 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K's (ND)
@HOU 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K's (L)
STL 9 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K's (L)
NYM 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's (L)
SD 7 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 12 K's (ND)
@SF 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K's (ND)

hold2dibber
02-21-2006, 08:42 AM
And if he doesn't, then Fingernails on a blackboard will gladly take his spot.

I know who this refers to and I think I saw the post where it started, but I still don't get it. Could somebody help me out - I aren't too brite.

santo=dorf
02-21-2006, 01:17 PM
I know who this refers to and I think I saw the post where it started, but I still don't get it. Could somebody help me out - I aren't too brite.
West (along with some others) doesn't like McCarthy's nickname.

SoLongFrank
02-21-2006, 01:57 PM
He fared pretty well in COL but when you look at his Bank One & Dodger stadium #'s that's 23/35 hr's right there. As for Coop working magic I've read the big turn around for Contreras was El Duque convincing him to adjust his arm angle.

Now because these two were on the same team in NY at the same time you wonder why he didn't mention something to him then. It suggests to me things are not loose enough there to where the players can act like coaches & mentors to one another. Maybe there is something to be said for having a bl-linqual manager.

GoSox2K3
02-22-2006, 11:23 AM
I'm not sure why some think Coop will work instant magic on Vazquez. JV and JC are two different people. Also, remember that with Contreras, he was under Coop's supervision for a full season (2nd half '04 + 1st half '05) before he "clicked".

That being said, I am hopeful that getting better run support and bullpen support will help Vazquez with his confidence (if indeed confidence is the problem here). Maybe he'll also benefit from not being our "ace". He's what? Our fifth starter?

ManagerMark
02-22-2006, 11:41 AM
One of the keys to success for pitchers isn't always having the best stats but instead the devil is in the details. Sorry I cannot provide the stat for you, but I think you will find that an overwhelming majority of the home runs given up by the Sox staff last year and Vasquez were with 1 or no men on base. Keeping guys off the bases is the key and I think that is why we have survived as well as we have with high HR's against totals. Personally I think it works to the White Sox advantage when a pitcher like Vasquez is perceived to be a risk do to a stat like HR's given up. However it is a new year and the guys are going to have to dig deep and find "it" all over again. Let's hope it all falls into place. Go Sox!

Corlose 15
02-22-2006, 11:48 AM
I've got to belive that Vazquez would be an easier project than Contreras. Javier had some very good years in Montreal with Ozzie as a 3B coach so at least he's familiar with him. I would imagine that he's got less of a confidence issue than Contreras did. According to Widger in a recent article, a big hurdle with Contreras was convincing him just how good he really is. That shouldn't be as big of a problem with Vazquez.

SoLongFrank
02-22-2006, 04:24 PM
MOB (Men on Base/9 ip avg). Let's see if you're right.
10.80 Buehrle CWS
11.48 Contreras CWS
10.83 Garland CWS
11.37 Garcia CWS
11.43 Vazquez CWS

11.62 Sabathia CLE
10.96 Lee CLE
12.00 Westbrook CLE
11.06 Byrd CLE
12.34 Johson CLE

08.78 Santana MIN
10.70 Silva MIN
10.94 Radke MIN
13.30 Lohse MIN
12.26 Rogers DET
12.38 Bonderman DET
12.54 Robertson DET
12.70 Maroth DET 12.04 Elarton KAN
14.70 Greinke KAN
14.04 Hernandez KAN
14.25 Mays KAN

As 5th starters go Vazquez should be a cinch for 15 wins. Only CLE has an experienced one & guys who earn that spot from the minors usually struggle.

BTW, this is the area where Garland improved the most.

In 2004, Garland had a 12.57 MOB, his 2003 was about 12.5 as well.
In 2004, Vazquez had a 12.09 MOB, his 2003 was a hair over 10.

So I think you're right. I think the biggest impact Coop will have for Vazquez is lowering his MOB avg.