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Flight #24
02-07-2006, 04:42 PM
From Joe Sheehan's chat today:


Dan (Illinois): Hi Joe What do you think of the job Kenny Williams has done in retooling the White Sox this off-season? Where does it compare to how the Indians and Twins have made changes this off-season? How to do you like their odds to win the division again? Thanks
Joe Sheehan: I have a lot of respect for Williams' willingness to change the roster dramatically. The biggest trap after winning is to attach excessive value to the players who were on the team, rather than evaluate the roster objectively.

I expect the Indians to regress somewhat, as they didn't solve their corner issues and can't expect that their up-the-middle players will continue to collectively make up for that. Their bullpen will likely fall back a bit as well. The Twins are going to keep runs off the board again like nobody's business, but their offense has problems.

Right now--it's February 6, OK?--I'd probably pick the White Sox to repeat.

:o:

Pardon me while I check the window for the pigs soaring past the 13th floor.

Ol' No. 2
02-07-2006, 05:08 PM
From Joe Sheehan's chat today:



:o:

Pardon me while I check the window for the pigs soaring past the 13th floor.http://cool.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/hell_freezing_over.jpg

soxinem1
02-07-2006, 05:13 PM
http://members.lycos.nl/amazing_cows/art/cc3.jpg

Lip Man 1
02-07-2006, 05:35 PM
Why do I get the sense that he did this with great reluctance?

Lip

ondafarm
02-07-2006, 05:38 PM
I believe he's picking the White Sox to repeat as division champions.

Ol' No. 2
02-07-2006, 05:48 PM
I believe he's picking the White Sox to repeat as division champions.But only 88% of the division championship.

TommyJohn
02-07-2006, 05:49 PM
But only 88% of the division championship.

No, this is the year that they'll win the other 12%.

Dan Mega
02-07-2006, 05:51 PM
I think Joe Sheehan meant to write in teal.

The Wimperoo
02-07-2006, 08:00 PM
That was my question :cool:

doublem23
02-07-2006, 08:06 PM
That was my question :cool:

Way to represent, Dan in Illinois. :thumbsup:

SouthSide_HitMen
02-09-2006, 01:35 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=170

From the same chat.



Sam (Seattle): Your pick for the 2006 world series?
Joe Sheehan: A's over Mets.

Pythag (Win expectancy): White sox to repeat, arent you forgetting about something?
Joe Sheehan: That's completely irrelevant to the 2006 season. Evaluating the Sox roster heading into this season, their "lucky" 2005 just isn't a factor.




Being a Mets fan, I don't expect much this season. Being a White Sox fan, I'll ignore the lucky 2005 comment and fear "71 win" (Joe's 2005 White Sox prediction) Joe Sheehan's optimism for 2006.

Seeing Joe pick the A's for the 9th year in a row was par for the course.

For more laughs watch The Office tonight at 8:30 on NBC.

Gavin
02-09-2006, 01:52 AM
This all makes my brain hurt.

Flight #24
02-09-2006, 01:58 AM
Seeing Joe pick the A's for the 9th year in a row was par for the course.



Actually, I wonder how many times they've been picked by the Beaneball Prospectus crew. It'd be interesting to note exactly how accurate they've been in their predictions. I'd bet it's pretty inaccurate.

But that's just further proof of the role luck plays, since the models MUST be good!

Mr. White Sox
02-09-2006, 05:30 AM
"There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

SouthSide_HitMen
02-09-2006, 03:03 PM
Actually, I wonder how many times they've been picked by the Beaneball Prospectus crew. It'd be interesting to note exactly how accurate they've been in their predictions. I'd bet it's pretty inaccurate.

But that's just further proof of the role luck plays, since the models MUST be good!

Joe Sheehan's projections at BP

2005

Record RS RA
Twins 93-69 812 730
Indians 84-78 845 817
Tigers 74-88 745 798
White Sox 71-91 749 856
Royals 64-98 722 938


Comments made the day after:



Wow, there are a lot of White Sox fans out there.

I was surprised by the negative reaction to my projection of a 71-91 season for the South Siders. Taking another look today…I'll stick by it. The offense is going to be pretty bad unless Frank Thomas (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/thomafr04.php) is both healthy and a monster, and I'm just not as impressed by the pitching staff as the readers seem to be. I expect a late-season fade to push the Sox above 90 losses, as you may see a fire sale once the playoffs are out of reach.

2005 Selections

Author Winner Loser
----------------------------------------
Will Carroll Red Sox Cubs
James Click Braves Red Sox
Clay Davenport Yankees Cubs
Jay Jaffe Cardinals Twins
Rany Jazayerli A's Phillies
Chris Kahrl Dodgers ----
Jonah Keri Red Sox Marlins
Dave Kirsch Braves Red Sox
Dayn Perry Red Sox Phillies
Joe Sheehan Twins Mets
Nate Silver Red Sox Phillies
Keith Woolner Red Sox Dodgers


2004 Selections

BP Author World Series Winner
Will Carroll Red Sox
Steven Goldman Cubs
Gary Huckabay Athletics
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox
Chris Kahrl Red Sox
Jonah Keri Athletics
Doug Pappas Astros
Dayn Perry Yankees
Joe Sheehan Red Sox
Nate Silver Red Sox
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg Athletics

2003 Projections
BP Author World Series Winner-----------------------------------
Jeff Bower Athletics
Will Carroll Athletics
Jeff Hildebrand Giants
Gary Huckabay Red Sox
Jonah Keri Red Sox
Mat Olkin Athletics
Doug Pappas Giants
Keith Scherer Yankees
Joe Sheehan Athletics
Nate Silver Red Sox
Greg Spira Diamondbacks
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg Yankees

Most Popular World Series Champion selections:

Billy Beane & Co.
Boston 15 (6 were correct)
Oakland 8
Dodgers 1 (DePodesta 2005)

Total 24

Rest of the league

NY Yankees 4
Atlanta 2
San Francisco 2
Cubs 1
Minnesota 1
Houston 1
Arizona 1

Total 12

We report, you decide.

Ol' No. 2
02-09-2006, 03:15 PM
Joe Sheehan's projections at BP

2005

Record RS RA
Twins 93-69 812 730
Indians 84-78 845 817
Tigers 74-88 745 798
White Sox 71-91 749 856
Royals 64-98 722 938

Comments made the day after:

Wow, there are a lot of White Sox fans out there.

I was surprised by the negative reaction to my projection of a 71-91 season for the South Siders. Taking another look today…I'll stick by it. The offense is going to be pretty bad unless Frank Thomas (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/thomafr04.php) is both healthy and a monster, and I'm just not as impressed by the pitching staff as the readers seem to be. I expect a late-season fade to push the Sox above 90 losses, as you may see a fire sale once the playoffs are out of reach.

2005 Selections

Author Winner Loser
----------------------------------------
Will Carroll Red Sox Cubs
James Click Braves Red Sox
Clay Davenport Yankees Cubs
Jay Jaffe Cardinals Twins
Rany Jazayerli A's Phillies
Chris Kahrl Dodgers ----
Jonah Keri Red Sox Marlins
Dave Kirsch Braves Red Sox
Dayn Perry Red Sox Phillies
Joe Sheehan Twins Mets
Nate Silver Red Sox Phillies
Keith Woolner Red Sox Dodgers


2004 Selections

BP Author World Series Winner
Will Carroll Red Sox
Steven Goldman Cubs
Gary Huckabay Athletics
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox
Chris Kahrl Red Sox
Jonah Keri Athletics
Doug Pappas Astros
Dayn Perry Yankees
Joe Sheehan Red Sox
Nate Silver Red Sox
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg Athletics

2003 Projections
BP Author World Series Winner-----------------------------------
Jeff Bower Athletics
Will Carroll Athletics
Jeff Hildebrand Giants
Gary Huckabay Red Sox
Jonah Keri Red Sox
Mat Olkin Athletics
Doug Pappas Giants
Keith Scherer Yankees
Joe Sheehan Athletics
Nate Silver Red Sox
Greg Spira Diamondbacks
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg YankeesWhat cracks me up is that after completely whiffing on last year's projections, they proceed to make basically the same projections for the same reasons.:rolleyes:

tebman
02-09-2006, 03:28 PM
What cracks me up is that after completely whiffing on last year's projections, they proceed to make basically the same projections for the same reasons.:rolleyes:

...with an 88% probability.