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View Full Version : Abreu trade rumor still Brewing


Gammons Peter
02-03-2006, 10:38 AM
http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/13780561.htm
By Bill Conlin
The Phillies will have a team Chase Utley can be proud of... Melancholy fans moping over Gillick's cautious approach to winning those five more games in 2006 will be heartened to know Utley is on the cover of Street and Smith's Baseball 2006 Yearbook. The headline is "The Chase Is On." A subhead has the Phils looking for the NL East title. As far as I know there is no known Street and Smith's Jinx.
A lot of spring-training focus will be on Manuel's strength up most of the middle. If you can start the middle just behind the mound, the Jimmy Rollins-Utley combination backed by dynamic centerfielder Aaron Rowand is as solid a blend of offense and defense as you'll find in the National League. While I can't mention them in the same defensive breath as Gold Glovers Larry Bowa, Manny Trillo and Garry Maddox from the 1980 champs, it's easily a more potent offensive trio...
Hot Internet trade rumor du jour has Gillick sending Bobby Abreu and Gavin Floyd to the defending World Series champion White Sox for veteran outfielder Jermaine Dye and righthanded workhorse Jose Contreras.
Officials from both teams deny any such talks. It's a rumor revived from the fall. Dye is Ozzie Guillen's No. 3 hitter. On the other hand, Contreras is on the final year of his contract and is owed $8.5 million this season. Maybe the White Sox really are deep enough in starters to consider moving a guy who was 6-0 in September and 11-2 the second half. The deal-breaking question could be: Why would Chicago settle for Gavin Floyd? Whatever, it rates a solid 6.0 on the trade-rumor Richter Scale and even makes a little sense for the Phillies. When you factor the intangibles, I'm not so sure Abreu would be an upgrade for the Sox. But Dye would certainly fit well here. He led all rightfielders last season with 31 homers.

infohawk
02-03-2006, 10:56 AM
Interesting, but I don't really see this kind of trade happening. I think KW would, however, entertain a trade of Contreras for two high-ceiling major league ready or very near major league ready minor league pitchers. If the Sox can continue to stay deep in pitching, they will be good for a long, long time. Deep pitching staffs allow the GM to mix-and-match the position players while continuing to win.

mdep524
02-03-2006, 11:11 AM
Hot Internet trade rumor du jour That's all you need to read. Nothing new to see here, folks.

Hangar18
02-03-2006, 11:41 AM
That's all you need to read. Nothing new to see here, folks.

Yup. Stupid Rumor that started right here. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

mdep524
02-03-2006, 12:11 PM
Yup. Stupid Rumor that started right here. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Haha, seriously. But that would still make it more credible than mlbtraderumors.com!

The Abreu trade does have some validity to it I guess. I definitely believe Ozzie loves the guy and KW would be interested, but giving up Contreras and Dye for him seems like a stretch, all things considered (chemistry, salary, talent, defense, KW's pitching mandate, etc.). If only he (or Pods) could play center....

Flight #24
02-03-2006, 12:17 PM
Interesting, but I don't really see this kind of trade happening. I think KW would, however, entertain a trade of Contreras for two high-ceiling major league ready or very near major league ready minor league pitchers. If the Sox can continue to stay deep in pitching, they will be good for a long, long time. Deep pitching staffs allow the GM to mix-and-match the position players while continuing to win.

Maybe get them to throw in another, lower level prospect. Someone like say Gio Gonzalez........

Or heck with it - just get back Haigwood & Gio with Abreu for Contreras & Dye. That would make the trade Abreu & Thome for Rowand & Contreras. Fair.

sullythered
02-03-2006, 12:54 PM
No sir, I don't like it.
Abreu isn't a big enough upgrade over Jermaine to justify moving Contreras for a prospect, contract year or not.

SouthSide_HitMen
02-03-2006, 12:59 PM
Yup. Stupid Rumor that started right here. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Yes, but it has been confirmed on SoxTalk and Yahoo - it is a solid rumor and Abreu will be here by Wednesday.

Stoky44
02-03-2006, 01:38 PM
I hope this trade does not happen. i thought Kenny wanted to enter the season with B-mac in the pen.

SoxFan76
02-03-2006, 01:40 PM
Yes, but it has been confirmed on SoxTalk and Yahoo - it is a solid rumor and Abreu will be here by Wednesday.

:D:

dugwood31
02-03-2006, 08:31 PM
I'd do this trade in a heartbeat. Contreras' value will never be higher, and we're going to lose him even if he has another good year (not a certainty, people). Abreu adds a dimension to any team he plays for because of his speed. I love Jermaine, but they're not in the same league. They're the same age, Dye has a career OPS of .803, Abreu's is .923. Floyd has a big upside, and the pundits are already pronouncing him a failure even though he turned 23 less than two weeks ago. Floyd could be an absolute steal.

Hitmen77
02-03-2006, 11:15 PM
The latest from the Tribune:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-060203sox,1,695835.story?coll=chi-sportsnew-hed

IowaSox1971
02-04-2006, 02:06 AM
I'd do this trade in a heartbeat. Contreras' value will never be higher, and we're going to lose him even if he has another good year (not a certainty, people). Abreu adds a dimension to any team he plays for because of his speed. I love Jermaine, but they're not in the same league. They're the same age, Dye has a career OPS of .803, Abreu's is .923. Floyd has a big upside, and the pundits are already pronouncing him a failure even though he turned 23 less than two weeks ago. Floyd could be an absolute steal.


All Dye did for us was provide great veteran leadership, hit more homers than any other right fielder in baseball and, oh yeah, win the World Series MVP.

All Contreras did for us was start Game 1 of every postseason series, and he delivered a very good start each time. He also saved our season down the stretch; without his great pitching in September, we probably would not have won the division.

So, we'd be giving up two guys who have shown that they can shine on baseball's biggest stage for someone who's never been to the playoffs and an over-hyped prospect. That does not make any sense to me.

Abreu stopped hitting home runs consistently in the second half of the season last year; thankfully, Dye did not.

I'd rather have guys who win championships, not home run derbies.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-04-2006, 08:29 AM
Kenny Williams is denying this rumor.....

Chicago White Sox general manager Ken Williams denied Internet reports that the team was on the verge of trading pitcher Jose Contreras and right fielder Jermaine Dye to the Philadelphia Phillies for All-Star right fielder Bobby Abreu and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd (Mount St. Joseph).

Linky (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.bbnotes04feb04,1,3251763.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball)

Stop making things up WSI members! Do I need teal for that one.......?

Tragg
02-04-2006, 09:59 AM
There is always that struggle between winning this year and the future.
Keeping Contreras is a (non)move that would help us win THIS year; but a move that won't cost us any in the future. For all of the inevitable clammor when people wanting to trade 1/2 the farm system in July for the "missing piece" perhaps its best to hold onto this piece. Especially as Conteras high value doesn't seem all that high based upon the proffered deals I've read.

Whitesox4ever
02-04-2006, 10:23 AM
Instead of Floyd coming to the Sox I would rather see A Rhodes coming to the south side that would fill are LR hole

Save McCuddy's
02-04-2006, 11:28 AM
All Dye did for us was provide great veteran leadership, hit more homers than any other right fielder in baseball and, oh yeah, win the World Series MVP.

All Contreras did for us was start Game 1 of every postseason series, and he delivered a very good start each time. He also saved our season down the stretch; without his great pitching in September, we probably would not have won the division.

So, we'd be giving up two guys who have shown that they can shine on baseball's biggest stage for someone who's never been to the playoffs and an over-hyped prospect. That does not make any sense to me.

Abreu stopped hitting home runs consistently in the second half of the season last year; thankfully, Dye did not.

I'd rather have guys who win championships, not home run derbies.


I thought Iowa was home to Cub fans -- which would make sense, because this poster is exhibitting the Cubbish quality of over-rating and overly attaching oneself to current roster players. While I appreciate what we got out of Jermaine last year, he and Abreu are not in the same class. A life-time .400 + OBP with better than .500 SLG % who steals bases is an offensive force that Dye can't compare to. Not to mention that he won his first gold glove last year.

Veteran leadership? I'll give you that Dye's a veteran, but he's never been accused of having a clubhouse presence at any of his numerous MLB stops. I certainly didn't see Rowand taking any cues from him as I sat in the OF for much of last season. He's a complimentary player -- while Abreu is the 3 hitter and horse of his team.

The WS MVP is nice, but let's face it -- he had 3 RBI's in a series that you could have picked any one of Crede, Konerko, Podsednik -- or even my choice, Uribe (for those last couple of outs in game 4).

Contreras is the trickier part of this deal/no deal. If he truly has become the pitcher we saw over his last 20 starts, then there are few like him out there. But, in the business of baseball and considering the finances of our club, he's gone after this year no matter what. You can't spend $50 + million on a starting rotation. At some point the 5 hole has to be used on developing talent and/or lesser priced pitchers. McCarthy is ready -- and he's cheap. If we learned anything from our Garland experience it's that you have to get these guys out there and experienced before they'll pay off.

Floyd becomes a power arm that you slide into Vizcaino's role or mop up to deepen your pen. In '07 -- who knows, but he's 23 and way too young and touted to give up on yet.

I hear that Gillick and Williams were spotted together last week -- so this may not be entirely a cyber hoax. I'm fired up for April 2 no matter what happens, but rest assured -- this deal would make us better in '06 and possibly alot better in '07.

Sorry about the long first post -- just a little over excited.

DaveIsHere
02-04-2006, 11:38 AM
I thought Iowa was home to Cub fans -- which would make sense, because this poster is exhibitting the Cubbish quality of over-rating and overly attaching oneself to current roster players.

Let us know how you really feel, way to start your posting here with a jab at someone.....Good Luck

KRS1
02-04-2006, 01:19 PM
Instead of Floyd coming to the Sox I would rather see A Rhodes coming to the south side that would fill are LR hole


Rhodes is old, and hasnt been good in 2 seasons. Floyd would be much better in the pen than him, and he can start.

Tragg
02-04-2006, 01:43 PM
I thought Iowa was home to Cub fans -- which would make sense, because this poster is exhibitting the Cubbish quality of over-rating and overly attaching oneself to current roster players.
Give him a break - he made a reasonable point. Contreras, the way he pitched last year, is a number 1 starter in quality. That plus a very capable Dye for Abreu isn't a slam-dunk obvious move. There are pros and cons.

There is also a great tendency here to act like Sox players weren't very good and elevating players on OTHER teams. I believe that AJ Burnett was commonly described as a top-level starter on this board last July.

Flight #24
02-04-2006, 02:32 PM
So, we'd be giving up two guys who have shown that they can shine on baseball's biggest stage for someone who's never been to the playoffs and an over-hyped prospect. That does not make any sense to me.



This same rationale could be used to deter the Sox from trading for say a package of Mark Teixeira and Felix Hernandez.

Abreu >>>>> Dye
Contreras is great, but is a 1-year rental at a slot where the Sox have serious depth. Floyd gives you an option on a talented pitcher who's not put it together in the bigs, but hasn't exactly had a huge opportunity yet. At worst, you lose Contreras (replaced with McCarthy) and get a significant upgrade at RF. At best, you end up with Abreu and a Garland-like young pitcher (giving the Sox 4 stud under the age of 27, 2 of whom are dirt-cheap).

soxinem1
02-04-2006, 02:50 PM
I'd rather do Ichiro for Contreras straight up. I think he would add a lot more to the line up than another basher who whiffs a ton.

We are also forgetting our fifth starter problems as recently as 2004. I do not want to count on a pitcher that may go 8-11 in 30 starts and have us drawing straws for the fifth spot again by July.

Pre-2005 White Sox: all sluggers, less than 10 wins from the fifth starter spot COMBINED from 2002-04.

I seem to remember us not going anywhere with such line ups recently........

While I always liked Abreu as a player, we are not acknowledging enough that he was really shut down in the second half last year, in a gopher ball stadium, and was part of a real solid hitting line up, and was not pitched around.

So I say if Contreras goes, its for Ichiro.....

longshot7
02-04-2006, 03:40 PM
Give him a break - he made a reasonable point. Contreras, the way he pitched last year, is a number 1 starter in quality. That plus a very capable Dye for Abreu isn't a slam-dunk obvious move. There are pros and cons.

There is also a great tendency here to act like Sox players weren't very good and elevating players on OTHER teams. I believe that AJ Burnett was commonly described as a top-level starter on this board last July.

Very good point. Burnett was totally overrated by us WSIers.


Whatever the move, I trust Kenny.

ilsox7
02-04-2006, 04:05 PM
I'd rather do Ichiro for Contreras straight up. I think he would add a lot more to the line up than another basher who whiffs a ton.

We are also forgetting our fifth starter problems as recently as 2004. I do not want to count on a pitcher that may go 8-11 in 30 starts and have us drawing straws for the fifth spot again by July.

Pre-2005 White Sox: all sluggers, less than 10 wins from the fifth starter spot COMBINED from 2002-04.

I seem to remember us not going anywhere with such line ups recently........

While I always liked Abreu as a player, we are not acknowledging enough that he was really shut down in the second half last year, in a gopher ball stadium, and was part of a real solid hitting line up, and was not pitched around.

So I say if Contreras goes, its for Ichiro.....

Too bad the M's have said they won't trade Ichiro. So unless that has changed...

WCCMIKE
02-04-2006, 04:10 PM
How about this trade Jose/Brian Anderson for Bobby then we can have Pods CF,Dye LF and Bobby RF

oeo
02-04-2006, 04:20 PM
Too bad the M's have said they won't trade Ichiro. So unless that has changed...
Yeah, I don't think they will give him up. I wish they would, and I bet you Ichiro wishes they did...he just wants to win and he's not going to win anything in Seattle soon.

Flight #24
02-04-2006, 06:16 PM
We are also forgetting our fifth starter problems as recently as 2004. I do not want to count on a pitcher that may go 8-11 in 30 starts and have us drawing straws for the fifth spot again by July.

Pre-2005 White Sox: all sluggers, less than 10 wins from the fifth starter spot COMBINED from 2002-04.

I seem to remember us not going anywhere with such line ups recently........



1) In McCarthy, you have a guy who was shutting down top lineups down the stretch like Boston and Cleveland. Not exactly Felix Diaz & Arnie Munoz.

2) The problem pre-2005 wasn't that they had sluggers, it was that they lacked other types of hitters (speed, average, LH, etc.). They now have a lineup with great and solid speed at various spots (Pods, Iguchi, Anderson). You're talking about replacing Dye with Abreu. That UPGRADES the speed and BA/OBP. And it doesn't detract from any other spots in the lineup.

Tragg
02-04-2006, 06:32 PM
How about this trade Jose/Brian Anderson for Bobby then we can have Pods CF,Dye LF and Bobby RF

Nooooo - that creates weaknesses; lack of CF defense for one; age - dye and pods are getting up there; dye and abreu is a direct upgrade. Cant' get rid of all of our young players.

Tragg
02-04-2006, 06:34 PM
How about this trade Jose/Brian Anderson for Bobby then we can have Pods CF,Dye LF and Bobby RF

Nooooo - now that would be a bad trade - Anderson has much more trade value than does Dye; that would create a big defensive weakness in CF. Can't get rid of all of the young players.

dugwood31
02-05-2006, 02:04 AM
All Dye did for us was provide great veteran leadership, hit more homers than any other right fielder in baseball and, oh yeah, win the World Series MVP.

All Contreras did for us was start Game 1 of every postseason series, and he delivered a very good start each time. He also saved our season down the stretch; without his great pitching in September, we probably would not have won the division.

So, we'd be giving up two guys who have shown that they can shine on baseball's biggest stage for someone who's never been to the playoffs and an over-hyped prospect. That does not make any sense to me.

Abreu stopped hitting home runs consistently in the second half of the season last year; thankfully, Dye did not.

I'd rather have guys who win championships, not home run derbies.

As I pointed out, I love Dye. I love Contreras too. You can't deny that Abreu is a better player than Dye -- the statistics aren't even close. You also can't deny that Contreras value is at its peak right now. I don't think you can say that Gavin Floyd is over-hyped, either, given his age.

What this deal would mean is that this year is that we get an upgrade in RF (better stats in virtually every category) and a rotation that has B-Mac as its biggest question mark.

ChiSoxLifer
02-05-2006, 04:00 AM
I'd be pretty surprised if KW traded Jermaine as part of a package for Abreu. For ten million less a year, Dye's production is nearly equal to Bobby's not to mention the Sox are giving up the best pitcher in the second half of last year. I wonder how loyal Kenny is to Jermaine. JD did take less money to sign with the Sox despite being offered more money by another team. He could've reneged on his verbal agreement and played elsewhere. In the end, I'd be surprised if this trade is made.

Flight #24
02-05-2006, 09:40 AM
I'd be pretty surprised if KW traded Jermaine as part of a package for Abreu. For ten million less a year, Dye's production is nearly equal to Bobby's not to mention the Sox are giving up the best pitcher in the second half of last year. I wonder how loyal Kenny is to Jermaine. JD did take less money to sign with the Sox despite being offered more money by another team. He could've reneged on his verbal agreement and played elsewhere. In the end, I'd be surprised if this trade is made.

That's a good point. I do think KW would consider that, but he might well just talk to Jermaine about it and try to make it work because it would better the team.

Ol' No. 2
02-05-2006, 09:40 AM
As I pointed out, I love Dye. I love Contreras too. You can't deny that Abreu is a better player than Dye -- the statistics aren't even close. You also can't deny that Contreras value is at its peak right now. I don't think you can say that Gavin Floyd is over-hyped, either, given his age.

What this deal would mean is that this year is that we get an upgrade in RF (better stats in virtually every category) and a rotation that has B-Mac as its biggest question mark.There's one problem in this trade. A rotation pitcher on a playoff team has to be expected to pitch 210+ innings in the regular season and another 20+ in the playoffs. Between AAA and the majors, McCarthy had 186 IP last year. At SoxFest KW expressed doubts about that big an increase for a young pitcher and I agree. It might make more sense to keep Contreras through June and trade him during the season.

Sox-o-matic
02-05-2006, 10:23 AM
There's one problem in this trade. A rotation pitcher on a playoff team has to be expected to pitch 210+ innings in the regular season and another 20+ in the playoffs. Between AAA and the majors, McCarthy had 186 IP last year. At SoxFest KW expressed doubts about that big an increase for a young pitcher and I agree. It might make more sense to keep Contreras through June and trade him during the season.

I see where you are coming from with this but to me it makes even less sense to pull a young pitcher out of the bullpen and expect him to make quality starts in the middle of a division race.

IMO, if a trade is made it should happen before the season or not at all. Right now we have 6 starters, each of whom would be top 1-2 starters on most teams in baseball. I like our depth and hope KW keeps it.

Worst case scenario we lose Contreras to free agency after this year but we still get draft picks. Abreu makes sense, but I don't know if the difference in production between Abreu and Dye would be significant enough to trade away the guy who was our horse the second half of last season and in the playoffs.

This would ultimately be a steal no matter what since we got Jose for Loaiza and Loaiza for nothing, but unless KW thinks he can get a young pitcher who can step up big right away I'd rather keep Jose and gamble on a repeat now.

dugwood31
02-05-2006, 12:12 PM
There's one problem in this trade. A rotation pitcher on a playoff team has to be expected to pitch 210+ innings in the regular season and another 20+ in the playoffs. Between AAA and the majors, McCarthy had 186 IP last year. At SoxFest KW expressed doubts about that big an increase for a young pitcher and I agree. It might make more sense to keep Contreras through June and trade him during the season.

You point about McCarthy's innings is valid. (We sure are spoiled, when one of our concerns is that our 5th starter might have trouble eating up 220 innings:smile:. Seems like about two years ago we weren't even sure who our 4th starter was.)

The problem here is Contreras' value. We probably will get more for him now than we would in June. His value is very high, higher than it should be. He had a great 2nd half and a great postseason. But he's old and in the last year of a contract, and his track record suggests he's not a lock to do it again this year.

Floyd might be a bust, but he also might be a cornerstone of our rotation.

If we do deal Contreras, now's the time.

Tragg
02-05-2006, 12:43 PM
The problem here is Contreras' value. We probably will get more for him now than we would in June. His value is very high, higher than it should be.
You think so? I haven't seen any trade proposals that suggest his value is anything near what he pitched last year (a top number 1 starter). Hope you're right.

Ol' No. 2
02-05-2006, 01:04 PM
You point about McCarthy's innings is valid. (We sure are spoiled, when one of our concerns is that our 5th starter might have trouble eating up 220 innings:smile:. Seems like about two years ago we weren't even sure who our 4th starter was.)

The problem here is Contreras' value. We probably will get more for him now than we would in June. His value is very high, higher than it should be. He had a great 2nd half and a great postseason. But he's old and in the last year of a contract, and his track record suggests he's not a lock to do it again this year.

Floyd might be a bust, but he also might be a cornerstone of our rotation.

If we do deal Contreras, now's the time.If Contreras comes out and pitches the first two months this year like he did the last two months of 2005 his value will go up, not down. It's a gamble either way. And I wouldn't worry about McCarthy moving from the BP to the rotation. Pitchers do it all the time. It will take a few starts to work up to pitching 6+ innings, but that's not a big issue.

This is a tough call, and it would be hard to criticize either way.

dugwood31
02-05-2006, 01:18 PM
I just think if you're Kenny and you have to make a call, Contreras' second half and postseason are pretty likely to be his high water mark. He has great stuff, he's strong as an ox, and could end up pitching like Clemens late into his career. But if you take his major league track record, his dominance is out of the ordinary.

It depends on whether the Sox think he's turned the corner permanently (working with Coop, playing for Ozzie, has his family situation figured out), and whether they think they can lock him up long term.

It's why they pay Kenny the big bucks.

One thing's for certain: Abreu is an upgrade over Dye.

Ol' No. 2
02-05-2006, 01:28 PM
I just think if you're Kenny and you have to make a call, Contreras' second half and postseason are pretty likely to be his high water mark. He has great stuff, he's strong as an ox, and could end up pitching like Clemens late into his career. But if you take his major league track record, his dominance is out of the ordinary.

It depends on whether the Sox think he's turned the corner permanently (working with Coop, playing for Ozzie, has his family situation figured out), and whether they think they can lock him up long term.

It's why they pay Kenny the big bucks.

One thing's for certain: Abreu is an upgrade over Dye.I think if you trade Contreras, you have to get back a solid starting prospect in the deal. That way you have a bullpen replacement for McCarthy and a potential starter in case of injury. Floyd fills the bill, but Madson would be better. Given a choice, I'd do this deal today. Sure, it's a gamble, but you're not going to get someone like Abreu without giving up a quality player, and that's always a gamble.

Tragg
02-05-2006, 07:19 PM
I think if you trade Contreras, you have to get back a solid starting prospect in the deal. That way you have a bullpen replacement for McCarthy and a potential starter in case of injury. Floyd fills the bill, but Madson would be better. Given a choice, I'd do this deal today. Sure, it's a gamble, but you're not going to get someone like Abreu without giving up a quality player, and that's always a gamble. I don't think he's as great as a lot of people do (although I do think he's very good). I just don't want the Sox to start piling on to get him. Dye and Jose is a premium price (very able outfielder; number 1 starter), and it's us, as you suggest, who should get back something more. If Philly doesn't think he's a number 1, then don't trade him.
My guess is that it will be us piling on the prospects a)because we usually do in trades like this and b)to get Philly to eat some of that salary. We're going to need Sweeney and/or Owens soon enough.

soxinem1
02-05-2006, 08:37 PM
I'd be pretty surprised if KW traded Jermaine as part of a package for Abreu. For ten million less a year, Dye's production is nearly equal to Bobby's not to mention the Sox are giving up the best pitcher in the second half of last year. I wonder how loyal Kenny is to Jermaine. JD did take less money to sign with the Sox despite being offered more money by another team. He could've reneged on his verbal agreement and played elsewhere. In the end, I'd be surprised if this trade is made.

All excellent points. Plus, we are not far removed from the fifth starter chaos. I don't think this trade works at all.

likeawarlord
02-05-2006, 09:11 PM
I'd be pretty surprised if KW traded Jermaine as part of a package for Abreu. For ten million less a year, Dye's production is nearly equal to Bobby's not to mention the Sox are giving up the best pitcher in the second half of last year. I wonder how loyal Kenny is to Jermaine. JD did take less money to sign with the Sox despite being offered more money by another team. He could've reneged on his verbal agreement and played elsewhere. In the end, I'd be surprised if this trade is made.

i'd also be surprised if the trade is made, but abreu's production really is on a different level than dye's. between his health, consistency, stolen bases and monumental walk totals (he had 78 more than dye last year), he brings some things to the table that dye doesn't.

Beer Can Chicken
02-05-2006, 10:04 PM
Anderson has much more trade value than Dye? With all due respect... HA!

Nooooo - now that would be a bad trade - Anderson has much more trade value than does Dye; that would create a big defensive weakness in CF. Can't get rid of all of the young players.

Beer Can Chicken
02-05-2006, 10:09 PM
i'd also be surprised if the trade is made, but abreu's production really is on a different level than dye's. between his health, consistency, stolen bases and monumental walk totals (he had 78 more than dye last year), he brings some things to the table that dye doesn't.
I agree. He does bring something to the table that Dye doesnt. 70 points in OPB. 30 points in BA. Don't forget the 30-30, someting that would slide very nicely into the SOX lineup. All chemistry issues aside, Dye doesnt even come close to Abreu.

KRS1
02-05-2006, 10:38 PM
Anderson has much more trade value than Dye? With all due respect... HA!



Umm.... I'm with Tragg on this one. BA is ten years younger, plays CF very well, has put up very solid numbers at all stops en route to the bigs, and has taken the spot of a GG caliber major leaguer after only been a pro 2 1/2 season which shows the high regards we hold for him. Dye had his first healthy season in a good while last year(even though his were freak injuries), which teams like to steer clear of. I would never say BA is better than Dye at this point, but a lot of teams will overlook his 30+ hr potential and very solid skills in the big five categories and take a chance on the youth and potential to have a young and talented CF with equally solid tools, for 5 years at a very cheap rate. Lets not under-estimate the potential Brian has, I remember Baseball America describing him as the second best five-tool talent from college when we drafted him, and everyone in our org. expects huge things for him now and in the future. Did I mention that he is young and plays a great CF?

DaleJRFan
02-05-2006, 10:40 PM
I agree. He does bring something to the table that Dye doesnt. 70 points in OPB. 30 points in BA. Don't forget the 30-30, someting that would slide very nicely into the SOX lineup. All chemistry issues aside, Dye doesnt even come close to Abreu.

We aren't comparing Dye and Abreu. We are comparing Dye plus arguably the best pitcher in the AL post-allstar break - for Abreu + a throw in pitcher ala Vizcaino in the CLee trade. Abreu was out to lunch in the second half of the season while the Phillies were a game back in the wild card race. Meanwhile, Conteras carried his team in September and Dye was the World Series MVP.

Abreu isn't worth Dye AND Contreras unless an impact arm, whether its #4 or #5 guy out of the pen, or another starter, comes with him to Chicago. It's Jose Contreras we're talking about, not Arnie Munoz or Felix Diaz.

Flight #24
02-05-2006, 11:33 PM
We aren't comparing Dye and Abreu. We are comparing Dye plus arguably the best pitcher in the AL post-allstar break - for Abreu + a throw in pitcher ala Vizcaino in the CLee trade. Abreu was out to lunch in the second half of the season while the Phillies were a game back in the wild card race. Meanwhile, Conteras carried his team in September and Dye was the World Series MVP.

Abreu isn't worth Dye AND Contreras unless an impact arm, whether its #4 or #5 guy out of the pen, or another starter, comes with him to Chicago. It's Jose Contreras we're talking about, not Arnie Munoz or Felix Diaz.

Of course, in the first half, and in prior years, Abreu >>>> Contreras+Dye. But I'm sure MLB GMs really only care about the 2d half of 2005 & the playoffs.
I'm a big Contreras fan, but you can't treat him as if he's Johan Santana. His history tells you that he could be Santana-esque, or he could be Esteban Loaiza. That works against him. He's also a 1-year rental who's requesting a 3-yr/$36M contract and is rumored to be pushing 40 years old. Similarly, Dye had his first injury-free and highly productive season in a while.

If you don't believe in trading pitching for hitting, I can understand it. If you think you can get more for Jose at midseason, fine. But Abreu is a top 10-15 player in all of baseball and is signed for 2 years with IIRC a team option on a 3d. That's well worth Contreras+Dye, even before you add in a talented young pitcher who a year ago was considered a top prospect.

likeawarlord
02-06-2006, 02:06 AM
We aren't comparing Dye and Abreu. We are comparing Dye plus arguably the best pitcher in the AL post-allstar break - for Abreu + a throw in pitcher ala Vizcaino in the CLee trade. Abreu was out to lunch in the second half of the season while the Phillies were a game back in the wild card race. Meanwhile, Conteras carried his team in September and Dye was the World Series MVP.

Abreu isn't worth Dye AND Contreras unless an impact arm, whether its #4 or #5 guy out of the pen, or another starter, comes with him to Chicago. It's Jose Contreras we're talking about, not Arnie Munoz or Felix Diaz.

chisoxlifer WAS comparing abreu and dye.

also, gavin floyd is not "a throw in pitcher ala Vizcaino". he had a horrendous year last year but remains a very highly thought of prospect with considerable upside.

Steelrod
02-06-2006, 06:26 AM
I'd do this trade in a heartbeat. Contreras' value will never be higher, and we're going to lose him even if he has another good year (not a certainty, people). Abreu adds a dimension to any team he plays for because of his speed. I love Jermaine, but they're not in the same league. They're the same age, Dye has a career OPS of .803, Abreu's is .923. Floyd has a big upside, and the pundits are already pronouncing him a failure even though he turned 23 less than two weeks ago. Floyd could be an absolute steal.
His value WILL be higher before the trade deadline if he has success and teams in the hunt (should be about 20) are looking for a quality starter for the home stretch!

'72 AL MVP
02-08-2006, 02:11 PM
Hope this isn't redundant, but anybody here hearing anything pro or con regarding this speculated upon trade? I say make the deal as soon as possible! We haven't seen athleticism like that patrolling right field for several decades I would guess, and still enough pitching to win things!

Ol' No. 2
02-08-2006, 02:18 PM
Hope this isn't redundant, but anybody here hearing anything pro or con regarding this speculated upon trade? I say make the deal as soon as possible! We haven't seen athleticism like that patrolling right field for several decades I would guess, and still enough pitching to win things!This is the first I've heard of this.

gobears1987
02-08-2006, 02:19 PM
What's the Score?

I've always wanted to post that

Tekijawa
02-08-2006, 02:19 PM
Man I almost had a heart attack when I saw this in the Clubhouse

DaleJRFan
02-08-2006, 02:19 PM
This is the first I've heard of this.

Maybe it's Aaron Rowand starting these rumors.

gobears1987
02-08-2006, 02:24 PM
Man I almost had a heart attack when I saw this in the Clubhouseditto

gobears1987
02-08-2006, 02:25 PM
OK, it's been moved, mods were a little slow on that.:o:

ChiSoxLifer
02-08-2006, 06:23 PM
chisoxlifer WAS comparing abreu and dye.

also, gavin floyd is not "a throw in pitcher ala Vizcaino". he had a horrendous year last year but remains a very highly thought of prospect with considerable upside.

I said Dye's production is nearly as good as Abreu's, but at ten million dollars a year less in salary. I also added that the Phillies would get Contreras, who was the best second half pitcher last year. I was pointing out that it wasn't equitable for the White Sox. However, every fan overvalues their favorite players. I've read on other sites where Phillies fans feel they're getting ripped off in this trade.

IowaSox1971
02-09-2006, 03:26 AM
Of course, in the first half, and in prior years, Abreu >>>> Contreras+Dye. But I'm sure MLB GMs really only care about the 2d half of 2005 & the playoffs.
I'm a big Contreras fan, but you can't treat him as if he's Johan Santana. His history tells you that he could be Santana-esque, or he could be Esteban Loaiza. That works against him. He's also a 1-year rental who's requesting a 3-yr/$36M contract and is rumored to be pushing 40 years old. Similarly, Dye had his first injury-free and highly productive season in a while.

If you don't believe in trading pitching for hitting, I can understand it. If you think you can get more for Jose at midseason, fine. But Abreu is a top 10-15 player in all of baseball and is signed for 2 years with IIRC a team option on a 3d. That's well worth Contreras+Dye, even before you add in a talented young pitcher who a year ago was considered a top prospect.


There is no doubt that Abreu compiles impressive stats. But so did Sammy Sosa for many, many years. Do we want guys who do what it takes to win games, or do we want players who only seem interested in their numbers or in winning home run derbies?

The Phillies have fallen just short of the playoffs the past few years. Why? Was Abreu's drop-off in power in the second half a key reason they fell short in 2005? I don't know, but Abreu seems to be a lot like C. Lee and Maggs -- good numbers, but his teams tend to under-achieve.

Abreu is not nearly enough of an upgrade over Dye to justify also trading a pitcher who started Game 1 of each postseason series for a prospect. Pitching depth could be a problem for us this season because of the lingering effects of the many innings our starters pitched in 2005. More than likely, we will have a starting pitcher or two injured this season. We do not have as much of a surplus here as you might think.

likeawarlord
02-09-2006, 09:23 AM
I said Dye's production is nearly as good as Abreu's, but at ten million dollars a year less in salary. I also added that the Phillies would get Contreras, who was the best second half pitcher last year. I was pointing out that it wasn't equitable for the White Sox. However, every fan overvalues their favorite players. I've read on other sites where Phillies fans feel they're getting ripped off in this trade.

you're right, you said "nearly equal," but i'd argue that they aren't nearly equal. if you'd mentioned salary in the earlier post, yeah, maybe i'd agree that dye is a better bargain. but judging them as players, abreu has a significant edge.

Flight #24
02-09-2006, 09:40 AM
There is no doubt that Abreu compiles impressive stats. But so did Sammy Sosa for many, many years. Do we want guys who do what it takes to win games, or do we want players who only seem interested in their numbers or in winning home run derbies?

The Phillies have fallen just short of the playoffs the past few years. Why? Was Abreu's drop-off in power in the second half a key reason they fell short in 2005? I don't know, but Abreu seems to be a lot like C. Lee and Maggs -- good numbers, but his teams tend to under-achieve.



Yes, we should only look at players from the Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, & Angels......

Philadelphia's problem was pitching. Which is why they might even be interested in this type of deal. As for Abreu's personality, do you have any evidence that he is not interested in winning or is it just that he participated in HR derby and his team didn't make the playoffs. Wasn't that the case for one Paul Konerko in 2004? The bastard!

If he's got a bad/selfish attitude, fine - don't get him. But KW & OG will be in position to make that call. From a talent standpoint, Abreu >>>> Dye. Look at the raw #s, from both 2005 and earlier years. He's a better hitter. He gets on base a ton more. He's got more speed. And he's younger & more durable. Simply - he's a cornerstone offensive player, whereas Dye is not. That's no slight on Jermaine, either.

Ol' No. 2
02-09-2006, 09:46 AM
Yes, we should only look at players from the Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, & Angels......

Philadelphia's problem was pitching. Which is why they might even be interested in this type of deal. As for Abreu's personality, do you have any evidence that he is not interested in winning or is it just that he participated in HR derby and his team didn't make the playoffs. Wasn't that the case for one Paul Konerko in 2004? The bastard!

If he's got a bad/selfish attitude, fine - don't get him. But KW & OG will be in position to make that call. From a talent standpoint, Abreu >>>> Dye. Look at the raw #s, from both 2005 and earlier years. He's a better hitter. He gets on base a ton more. He's got more speed. And he's younger & more durable. Simply - he's a cornerstone offensive player, whereas Dye is not. That's no slight on Jermaine, either.But you're forgetting...Jermaine Dye led all RF in HR last year and was the World Series MVP.

IowaSox1971
02-09-2006, 01:02 PM
Yes, we should only look at players from the Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, & Angels......

Philadelphia's problem was pitching. Which is why they might even be interested in this type of deal. As for Abreu's personality, do you have any evidence that he is not interested in winning or is it just that he participated in HR derby and his team didn't make the playoffs. Wasn't that the case for one Paul Konerko in 2004? The bastard!

If he's got a bad/selfish attitude, fine - don't get him. But KW & OG will be in position to make that call. From a talent standpoint, Abreu >>>> Dye. Look at the raw #s, from both 2005 and earlier years. He's a better hitter. He gets on base a ton more. He's got more speed. And he's younger & more durable. Simply - he's a cornerstone offensive player, whereas Dye is not. That's no slight on Jermaine, either.


Without Dye and Contreras we do not even win the division last season, let alone enjoy any postseason success. So why get rid of TWO guys who were integral parts of our championship team to get ONE guy whose ability to play under pressure can at least be questioned a bit? We already KNOW that Dye and Contreras will not falter down the stretch and we also KNOW that they can succeed in the postseason. With Abreu, it could be another Sammy Sosa situation: Great stats, but not necessarily when it counts, and not very much team success. Why fix what isn't broken?

Flight #24
02-09-2006, 01:24 PM
Without Dye and Contreras we do not even win the division last season, let alone enjoy any postseason success. So why get rid of TWO guys who were integral parts of our championship team to get ONE guy whose ability to play under pressure can at least be questioned a bit? We already KNOW that Dye and Contreras will not falter down the stretch and we also KNOW that they can succeed in the postseason. With Abreu, it could be another Sammy Sosa situation: Great stats, but not necessarily when it counts, and not very much team success. Why fix what isn't broken?

Oh. My. God. It's not that complicated. Abreu is a superior offensive player to Dye. Done. There is no evidence one way or another to say that he can't come through in the clutch, or even that Jermaine can replicate what he did in '05 - players don't always do that you know.

The question is whether the offensive upgrade is worth the pitching change from Contreras to McCarthy. Jose pitched great last year. But his history is not so kind. Is he Loaiza or a Cy Young contender? You want to argue the pitching depth is more important than the offensive upgrade, you might have something. But the whole "Dye/Contreras are worth more because of 3 months performance than guys who've consistently played better over a multi-year stretch" attitude is ludicrous.

Using your logic, you'd reject a straight up trade of say Freddy Garcia for Johan Santana or one of say Uribe for A-Rod(why give up a guy who you KNOW can perform in the WS for an unknown?).

gr8mexico
02-09-2006, 02:25 PM
If the Phillies would offer Abreu and Floyd for Contreras and Dye the Sox should really consider it. I cant understand how everyone would prefer Dye over Abreu. Dye's carrear OBP is .334 and Abreu is .411 I would rather have Abreu batting 3rd. There's no question about it that Abreu is a better Offensive player then Dye and there both about the same with the glove both gold glove Outfielders. But is it worth giving up both Contreras and Dye for Abreu I say yes the Sox still have 4 stud pitchers Mark,Freddy,Jon & Javier and Brandon looks like he might be a really good starting pitcher and would be able to handle himself in the rotation.

IowaSox1971
02-09-2006, 05:45 PM
Oh. My. God. It's not that complicated. Abreu is a superior offensive player to Dye. Done. There is no evidence one way or another to say that he can't come through in the clutch, or even that Jermaine can replicate what he did in '05 - players don't always do that you know.

The question is whether the offensive upgrade is worth the pitching change from Contreras to McCarthy. Jose pitched great last year. But his history is not so kind. Is he Loaiza or a Cy Young contender? You want to argue the pitching depth is more important than the offensive upgrade, you might have something. But the whole "Dye/Contreras are worth more because of 3 months performance than guys who've consistently played better over a multi-year stretch" attitude is ludicrous.

Using your logic, you'd reject a straight up trade of say Freddy Garcia for Johan Santana or one of say Uribe for A-Rod(why give up a guy who you KNOW can perform in the WS for an unknown?).


1. No evidence of not coming through in the clutch? Check the second half of last season. All of a sudden he stopped hitting home runs, even though his team needed him.

2. Is Contreras Loaiza or a Cy Young contender? I have no idea. But I do know that he is a competent major league pitcher who went 3-1 in the postseason last year with an outstanding, not just quality, start in each game. He also went 11-2 down the stretch of the regular season. He is much, much better than the pitcher we would get in return.

3. I would not reject a Garcia-Santana trade or a Uribe-ARod trade. If you want to twist my words, go ahead. Abreu is a slight upgrade over Dye and that upgrade would in no way make up for giving up Contreras for the next Scott Ruffcorn. We can't afford to give up quality starting pitching because all of our starters are unlikely to be healthy all season. If we trade Contreras in a deal like this, we're just asking for the return of the fifth-starter woes of 2004, when every fifth game basically was a guaranteed loss. If this deal went through, McCarthy would be a decent fifth starter, but he more than likely would have to be pushed up to No. 4 as the season wore on because of injuries. If you feel comfortable having someone like Munoz fill in as the No. 5 starter, then that's your opinion.

DaleJRFan
02-09-2006, 05:55 PM
But you're forgetting...Jermaine Dye led all RF in HR last year and was the World Series MVP.

Why does everyone claim that Jermaine Dye lead all MLB right fielders in homers last year? That is entirely inaccurate.

Gary Sheffield: 34 HR
Vlad Guerrero: 32 HR
Jermaine Dye: 31 HR

mdep524
02-09-2006, 06:11 PM
Why does everyone claim that Jermaine Dye lead all MLB right fielders in homers last year? That is entirely inaccurate.

Gary Sheffield: 34 HR
Vlad Guerrero: 32 HR
Jermaine Dye: 31 HR Sheff and Vlad hit a few of their HRs as a DH, lowering their RF totals. (As if that changes your analysis of the player's season.)

DaleJRFan
02-09-2006, 06:12 PM
Sheff and Vlad hit a few of their HRs as a DH, lowering their RF totals. (As if that changes your analysis of the player's season.)

The REAL question is... how many of JD's 31 dingers were as a first baseman?!?!

Flight #24
02-09-2006, 06:12 PM
1. No evidence of not coming through in the clutch? Check the second half of last season. All of a sudden he stopped hitting home runs, even though his team needed him.

2. Is Contreras Loaiza or a Cy Young contender? I have no idea. But I do know that he is a competent major league pitcher who went 3-1 in the postseason last year with an outstanding, not just quality, start in each game. He also went 11-2 down the stretch of the regular season. He is much, much better than the pitcher we would get in return.

3. I would not reject a Garcia-Santana trade or a Uribe-ARod trade. If you want to twist my words, go ahead. Abreu is a slight upgrade over Dye and that upgrade would in no way make up for giving up Contreras for the next Scott Ruffcorn. We can't afford to give up quality starting pitching because all of our starters are unlikely to be healthy all season. If we trade Contreras in a deal like this, we're just asking for the return of the fifth-starter woes of 2004, when every fifth game basically was a guaranteed loss. If this deal went through, McCarthy would be a decent fifth starter, but he more than likely would have to be pushed up to No. 4 as the season wore on because of injuries. If you feel comfortable having someone like Munoz fill in as the No. 5 starter, then that's your opinion.

1. Of course, in previous years, he hit .313/.400 (2002), .335/.437 (2003), .296/.414 (2004). And even in 2005, he hit .303 with RISP (.329 over past 3 years) compared to Dye's .260 (.237 past 3 years). And the overall #s the past few years are no contest. But that means nothing, only last year's 2d half HR totals are important!

2. Contreras had a great second half with a 1.14WHIP & 2.96 ERA. Of course Loaiza did that for a full year. And that meant nothing for the following year. All that matters is if it was a "hot streak" or if it's repeatable. I trust KW/OG on that one. But you're talking up 1 half-season when there's a whole other 2-3 years that were quite different. And you're talking a 1-year rental rather than a talented guy who could be here for years. And all you need at the #5 slot is a guy who's going to give you a decent shot at winning rather than a 7+ERA.

3. The one rational argument you made. I can understand it and see it has some validity. The question is - is the everyday offensive improvement from Abreu over Dye more or less than the downgrade in pitching from turning your #6 SP from McCarthy into someone else? The #5 SP will give you something like 25-30 starts v. 150+games of upgrade offensively. Tough call. But when you factor in young pitching and multi-year benefit from Abreu v. 1 year of Contreras I think it tips the scales towards doing the deal, assuming one was even discussed.

mdep524
02-09-2006, 06:47 PM
1. Of course, in previous years, he hit .313/.400 (2002), .335/.437 (2003), .296/.414 (2004). And even in 2005, he hit .303 with RISP (.329 over past 3 years) compared to Dye's .260 (.237 past 3 years). And the overall #s the past few years are no contest. But that means nothing, only last year's 2d half HR totals are important!

2. Contreras had a great second half with a 1.14WHIP & 2.96 ERA. Of course Loaiza did that for a full year. And that meant nothing for the following year. All that matters is if it was a "hot streak" or if it's repeatable. I trust KW/OG on that one. But you're talking up 1 half-season when there's a whole other 2-3 years that were quite different. And you're talking a 1-year rental rather than a talented guy who could be here for years. And all you need at the #5 slot is a guy who's going to give you a decent shot at winning rather than a 7+ERA.

3. The one rational argument you made. I can understand it and see it has some validity. The question is - is the everyday offensive improvement from Abreu over Dye more or less than the downgrade in pitching from turning your #6 SP from McCarthy into someone else? The #5 SP will give you something like 25-30 starts v. 150+games of upgrade offensively. Tough call. But when you factor in young pitching and multi-year benefit from Abreu v. 1 year of Contreras I think it tips the scales towards doing the deal, assuming one was even discussed.I agree with most of what you and Ol No. 2 are saying (though Dye's intangibles and handshake agreement may play as big a factor than a talent trade off). But I think Contreras is, on the whole, undervalued at WSI. Is he a perfect pitcher? No. The perfect pitcher is young, proven, injury-free, and singed long term to a reasonable contract. But "perfect" pitchers like that aren't available!

With the arguable exception of Mark Prior, who probably was never really "available" anyway, there aren't any no-brainer, perfect starting pitchers available in trades. They are a very, very scarce and valued resource. If they're signed, they're not on the market. Contreras is as good as it gets- very good, but with some flaws.

Hitters, on the other hand, are more available. Manny, Miggy, Abreu, etc. They are more good hitters than good pitchers, and Contreras's relative value should be increased accordingly. So Abreu for Contreras AND Dye is a damn good deal for the Phillies, unless they'd be paying a huge chunk of Abreu's salary.

Ol' No. 2
02-09-2006, 08:02 PM
I agree with most of what you and Ol No. 2 are saying (though Dye's intangibles and handshake agreement may play as big a factor than a talent trade off). But I think Contreras is, on the whole, undervalued at WSI. Is he a perfect pitcher? No. The perfect pitcher is young, proven, injury-free, and singed long term to a reasonable contract. But "perfect" pitchers like that aren't available!

With the arguable exception of Mark Prior, who probably was never really "available" anyway, there aren't any no-brainer, perfect starting pitchers available in trades. They are a very, very scarce and valued resource. If they're signed, they're not on the market. Contreras is as good as it gets- very good, but with some flaws.

Hitters, on the other hand, are more available. Manny, Miggy, Abreu, etc. They are more good hitters than good pitchers, and Contreras's relative value should be increased accordingly. So Abreu for Contreras AND Dye is a damn good deal for the Phillies, unless they'd be paying a huge chunk of Abreu's salary.Too good. That's where Gavin Floyd comes in. Very well regarded, but his value is depressed because he had a very poor season in 2005. Could be a solid reliever, could be a substitute starter if someone gets hurt, and could compete for a starting spot in 2007 and later.

soxinem1
02-09-2006, 09:55 PM
The REAL question is... how many of JD's 31 dingers were as a first baseman?!?!

Or at SS!!!

Tragg
02-09-2006, 11:04 PM
Oh. My. God. It's not that complicated. Abreu is a superior offensive player to Dye. Done. There is no evidence one way or another to say that he can't come through in the clutch, or even that Jermaine can replicate what he did in '05 - players don't always do that you know.

The question is whether the offensive upgrade is worth the pitching change from Contreras to McCarthy. Jose pitched great last year. But his history is not so kind. Is he Loaiza or a Cy Young contender? You want to argue the pitching depth is more important than the offensive upgrade, you might have something. But the whole "Dye/Contreras are worth more because of 3 months performance than guys who've consistently played better over a multi-year stretch" attitude is ludicrous.

Using your logic, you'd reject a straight up trade of say Freddy Garcia for Johan Santana or one of say Uribe for A-Rod(why give up a guy who you KNOW can perform in the WS for an unknown?).
There are money issues too. I know - Abreu is about the same as Dye plus Contreras. Abeu is set to make 15-16 Mill, which stands our internal pay scale on its head.

Dye and Conteras - for an upgrade of Dye- is a high price. It may be worth it. But it's a very solid price we're paying.

And what exactly are we getting? Great power? Nope. Great Batting Average? Not that either. Both are above average, neither is great. What we're getting is good power, a very good BA plus walks, yielding an outstanding OBP, and a salary well above what the market would pay at this time.

I can go either way on this trade; as long as it is the Phillies, not the Sox, throwing in the lagniappe prospects. If that aspect reverses, I find it an extremely dubious moves..

Domeshot17
02-09-2006, 11:08 PM
How many of Dyes homers were solo shots. I mean I like JD, I think he is a great guy and a great team mate, but he tended to hit home runs when they mattered the least. It was a different story in the playoffs, but lets put this guy in the top 5 category people seem to think he is. Hes in that good category, wavering on very good. Abreu is on that very good wavering on top 5. Home runs are not the only offensive stat either. His obp is great, he hits well with runners in scoring position, he hits for a better average and drives in more runs. He also creams dye when it comes to runs scored and driven in. The average season for abreu is about 300 410 obp 923 ops with 100 knocked in and 100 scored. Dye is about 270 330 obp 803 ops with 90 driven in and 80 scored. He is also durable. 9 straight years of 150 or more games played. Abreu also averafes 29 stolen bases to dyes CAREER 34. You are talking about putting a dynamic hitter in the 3 hole who gets on base runs the bases very well and creates runs infront of our bash brothers. This is far better than the limited Jermaine Dye could do. Abreu also creates more protection. With Abreu our 3 4 5 get pitched too, where as with Dye they are more apt to pitch around to get to Dye. Abreu is also a major upgrade defensively.

Now Contreras is tough. He pitches show depth, but you gotta wonder if there will be enough film on his re found split and fork for hitters to get to him. We know he wont be back. If we wait until July we cut out own nose off because the Phils most likely will not be in the mood to try and contend when they are 8-10 back. If we are thinking 3-5 year run like most seem to be, in year 3 ( year 1 counts as world series championship) you are without Contreras and Dye. We had a chance to get Andruw Jones for Magglio and we passed and ended up with nothing. It worked out, but now you are talking about 2 pieces. We got Contreras for Loaiza and Dye was an FA, so would you trade Loaiza and Dye for Abreu and Flloyd? Buy low sell high

soxinem1
02-10-2006, 09:26 AM
Were is all this 'trade Contreras in June when teams are looking for pitching' stuff coming from? I'm not totally sold on JC for a full season of consistency, but he has been an injury-free durable arm that takes his rotation turn.

Plus, starting depth has a way of becoming no depth. I remember a few years ago when the Cardinals went to ST with seven starting pitchers, and ended up needing every one of them by the time all was said and done.

I won't dispute that on paper that Abreu is better than Dye, but if this trade is made the entire roster will have seen a big overhaul. I don't know how you would keep good chemistry if the players have it in the back of their minds they know they may be one year rentals.

So if the Sox are in the thick of things, why would they trade JC then? Do contenders and division leaders usually trade their starters during that time of the season? And for what, to replace him with McCarthy who may have about 45 innings of mop-up relief at that time? No way! Why would you do that? And that is with everyone assuming that the other four guys are not hurt or innefective.

Besides, I have a bad feeling about #56 this year. His arm 'killing' him statement has me worried. The law of averages tells me we should hold on to all these starters.

spiffie
02-10-2006, 09:36 AM
One other reason I would have worries about this trade is that Vazquez, for all his potential, is still something of an enigma. He had problems with the AL in his last go-round, and still has not recaptured what he had going in Montreal. While I expect that he will improve being slotted in as a #5 guy here without tons of pressure on him, there is still at least some possibility (higher than for any of our others I would say) that he ends up having problems and needs to be shuttled to the pen and his spot goes over to McCarthy. Which I am okay with if that's our fifth starter. But I'm not sure that the upgrade on a day-to-day level to Abreu over a healthy Dye is worth the possibility of 15-20 starts by Arnie Munoz or Tim Redding. To me on a daily basis Abreu might be worth an extra 3-4 games over that time frame, whereas those guys starting could be a loss of 10-12 games overall. This is why I would be more interested come midseason in looking to trade, once all of our pitchers have had a chance to show what they're capable of in 2006.

Fredsox
02-10-2006, 09:42 AM
The law of averages tells me we should hold on to all these starters.

And that is precisely what is going to happen. We WILL need 6 starters over the course of a 162 game season and the playoffs. If you accept that statement (history shows it to be true) then there is no value in trading Contreras unless you will end up with another starting pitcher by some means (minors, trade, whatever). I don't see anyone in AA or AAA knocking on the door ready to pitch for a world champion so unless we are prepared to bring in another pitcher capable of being at least a solid #5 it would appear to be unlikely that we will trade JC.

Save McCuddy's
02-10-2006, 09:48 AM
Were is all this 'trade Contreras in June when teams are looking for pitching' stuff coming from? I'm not totally sold on JC for a full season of consistency, but he has been an injury-free durable arm that takes his rotation turn.

The trade Contreras in June camp has me confounded as well. If JC picks up where he left off and reaches the All-Star break as a hot commodity it would be much tougher to part with him than it is now when so much is unknown with regard to how he'll perform.

It's truly amazing how passionate a thread can become from the humble beginnings of a fictitious trade offer. BTW a source of mine close to Mr. Hahn says that this deal has never been discussed.

spiffie
02-10-2006, 10:19 AM
The trade Contreras in June camp has me confounded as well. If JC picks up where he left off and reaches the All-Star break as a hot commodity it would be much tougher to part with him than it is now when so much is unknown with regard to how he'll perform.

It's truly amazing how passionate a thread can become from the humble beginnings of a fictitious trade offer. BTW a source of mine close to Mr. Hahn says that this deal has never been discussed.
Does your source work at an airport by chance?

Save McCuddy's
02-10-2006, 10:26 AM
Does your source work at an airport by chance?

Not that I'm aware of.