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View Full Version : BP & Tribune combine to say Thome will suck in 2006


SouthSide_HitMen
01-09-2006, 11:52 PM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/chi-0601040237jan04,1,7688077.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

Page 2

"That's the kind of career path Thome is on," Kashyap says. "But [Silver] also tells you which season for those players looks the most like the season Thome was supposed to have [in 2005]. And for four of the five people on the list, [PECOTA] saw a significant deterioration in playing time that next year. They got injured, just like Thome did [he played in only 59 games last season because of elbow and back injuries]."

What is PECOTA thinking for 2006? Silver sees a big upside for pitchers B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Kyle Farnsworth, and Tampa Bay outfielder Aubrey Huff, who has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. He's not as excited about Thome ("when a guy hits his 30s and starts getting injured, they keep getting injured")

kittle42
01-10-2006, 12:13 AM
Who cares what former Met Bill Pecota thinks?

santo=dorf
01-10-2006, 12:16 AM
Playing around on google, I found a blog that listed the 2005 PECOTA predicitions for 2005. How do you think they did?

Twins 86-76
Indians 85-77
White Sox 80-82
Tigers 76-86
Royals 69-93

PECOTA has Oakland leading the division 88 wins followed by Anaheim with 83 wins, Texas with 79 wins and Seattle with 77 wins.
There's a few more misses.

Avg/OBP/SLG/VORP
Joe Crede .266/.321/.459/11.0
Ben Davis .239/.299/.404/3.7
Jermaine Dye .256/.332/.449/11.2
Carl Everett .273/.338/.444/10.4
Ross Gload .270/.318/435/6.0
Willie Harris .262/.333/.368/9.1
Paul Konerko .276/.353/.494/25.9
Timo Perez .266/.307/.385/0.2
AJ Pierzyski .277/.327/.430/16.3
Scott Podsednik .278/.342/.416/17.7
Aaron Rowand .290/.341/.482/23.9
Frank Thomas .274/.399/.529/30.3
Juan Uribe .269/.316/.444/18.5
Wilson Valdez .254/.287/.330/-1.8

IP/ERA/VORP
Jon Adkins 57.0/4.79/9.5
Mark Buehrle 198.3/4.47/35.1
Jose Contreras 129.3/4.91/17.1
Neal Cotts 73.7/4.93/9.5
Freddy Garcia 178.7/4.55/30.5
Jon Garland 169.3/5.05/19.7
Dustin Hermanson 109.7/5.09/12.7
Orlando Hernandez 113.0/4.35/24.2
Damaso Marte 65.7/3.99/16.6
Cliff Politte 46.7/4.79/8.2
Scott Schoeneweis 103.0/5.24/10/0
Shingo Takatsu 54.7/4.54/11.1
Luis Vizcaino 60.7/4.91/10.0

Way, way off on the pitching staff too.

......and people actually pay for this "insight."

ilsox7
01-10-2006, 12:16 AM
This the same formula which had the Sox at 88% to win the division when they clinched or the formula that had them winning 75 or 80 games last year?

Because really, knowing the answer to that question makes all the difference in the world to me.

Jim Thome is his own person...not any of those other guys. His performance is completely independent of anyone else's performance.

elrod
01-10-2006, 01:28 AM
I was in Philly this weekend and the universal consensus was that Thome was going to have a good year. They all wanted to know about Rowand. They'll love Rowand.

spiffie
01-10-2006, 02:20 AM
They all wanted to know about Rowand. They'll love Rowand.
No they won't. He takes bad routes to the ball.

ShoelessJoeS
01-10-2006, 02:30 AM
**** these naysayers who don't know squat about White Sox baseball. IMHO, I think Thome will come back with a vengence in '06 (because of his poor 2005) and have a great year. I expect at least .275/40/100 out of Thome with a minimum 100 walks. He might even put up higher power numbers than I predicted playing at the Cell. Also, concentrating only on hitting, as oppose to playing 1B, I believe will help his numbers.

ShoelessJoeS
01-10-2006, 02:41 AM
BTW Santo, best sig ever!

:contreras:
"More crow, Joe?"

ilsox7
01-10-2006, 02:44 AM
Playing around on google, I found a blog that listed the 2005 PECOTA predicitions for 2005. How do you think they did?

Twins 86-76
Indians 85-77
White Sox 80-82
Tigers 76-86
Royals 69-93


There's a few more misses.

Avg/OBP/SLG/VORP
Joe Crede .266/.321/.459/11.0
Ben Davis .239/.299/.404/3.7
Jermaine Dye .256/.332/.449/11.2
Carl Everett .273/.338/.444/10.4
Ross Gload .270/.318/435/6.0
Willie Harris .262/.333/.368/9.1
Paul Konerko .276/.353/.494/25.9
Timo Perez .266/.307/.385/0.2
AJ Pierzyski .277/.327/.430/16.3
Scott Podsednik .278/.342/.416/17.7
Aaron Rowand .290/.341/.482/23.9
Frank Thomas .274/.399/.529/30.3
Juan Uribe .269/.316/.444/18.5
Wilson Valdez .254/.287/.330/-1.8

IP/ERA/VORP
Jon Adkins 57.0/4.79/9.5
Mark Buehrle 198.3/4.47/35.1
Jose Contreras 129.3/4.91/17.1
Neal Cotts 73.7/4.93/9.5
Freddy Garcia 178.7/4.55/30.5
Jon Garland 169.3/5.05/19.7
Dustin Hermanson 109.7/5.09/12.7
Orlando Hernandez 113.0/4.35/24.2
Damaso Marte 65.7/3.99/16.6
Cliff Politte 46.7/4.79/8.2
Scott Schoeneweis 103.0/5.24/10/0
Shingo Takatsu 54.7/4.54/11.1
Luis Vizcaino 60.7/4.91/10.0

Way, way off on the pitching staff too.

......and people actually pay for this "insight."
Wow. This has got to be one of the biggest scams around on the Internet. They charge for this ****?

This reminds me of the Internet Bubble. Everyone jumped on random Internet companies who had zero financials to back them up and eventually everyone caught on. Seems to me this crap is headed in the same direction.

TDog
01-10-2006, 02:50 AM
... and people actually pay for this "insight."

People pay for radio, too. Nothing surprises me any more.

WhiteSoxFan84
01-10-2006, 04:13 AM
The only predictions I DEPEND on are the one's that aren't made. If I look at any predictions it's just for fun and games. I don't take any of them seriously and I don't care who they're coming from.

oeo
01-10-2006, 06:56 AM
Besides last year (because of injuries), when has Thome had a bad year? I definately trust the Sox scouts and Kenny Williams over what these pricks have to say.

Hitmen77
01-10-2006, 09:27 AM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/chi-0601040237jan04,1,7688077.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

Page 2

"That's the kind of career path Thome is on," Kashyap says. "But [Silver] also tells you which season for those players looks the most like the season Thome was supposed to have [in 2005]. And for four of the five people on the list, [PECOTA] saw a significant deterioration in playing time that next year. They got injured, just like Thome did [he played in only 59 games last season because of elbow and back injuries]."

What is PECOTA thinking for 2006? Silver sees a big upside for pitchers B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Kyle Farnsworth, and Tampa Bay outfielder Aubrey Huff, who has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. He's not as excited about Thome ("when a guy hits his 30s and starts getting injured, they keep getting injured")

So, any baseball player who ever gets injured in their 30s keeps getting injured? :?: I believe that must be absolutely correct!

Professor
01-10-2006, 10:01 AM
**** these naysayers who don't know squat about White Sox baseball. IMHO, I think Thome will come back with a vengence in '06 (because of his poor 2005) and have a great year. I expect at least .275/40/100 out of Thome with a minimum 100 walks. He might even put up higher power numbers than I predicted playing at the Cell. Also, concentrating only on hitting, as oppose to playing 1B, I believe will help his numbers.

Errata: "who don't know squat about baseball."

34 Inch Stick
01-10-2006, 10:27 AM
I fully expect Thome to play in 145 games and hit between 40-50 home runs next year. I will be shocked if he hits under 40.

Ol' No. 2
01-10-2006, 10:39 AM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/chi-0601040237jan04,1,7688077.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

Page 2

"That's the kind of career path Thome is on," Kashyap says. "But [Silver] also tells you which season for those players looks the most like the season Thome was supposed to have [in 2005]. And for four of the five people on the list, [PECOTA] saw a significant deterioration in playing time that next year. They got injured, just like Thome did [he played in only 59 games last season because of elbow and back injuries]."

What is PECOTA thinking for 2006? Silver sees a big upside for pitchers B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Kyle Farnsworth, and Tampa Bay outfielder Aubrey Huff, who has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. He's not as excited about Thome ("when a guy hits his 30s and starts getting injured, they keep getting injured")The reality is that PECOTA projections are no better than just taking a player's 3-year average. More complex formulae do not necessarily lead to a better prediction.

rocky biddle
01-10-2006, 11:30 AM
I've invented my own system. It's called S.C.A.M.- Sports Columnists Are Morons. It will take into account predictions, excuses, bias and random windsockery to objectively prove that sportswriters are douchebags.

pudge
01-10-2006, 12:32 PM
People pay for radio, too. Nothing surprises me any more.

"Free" radio is litered with commercials and doesn't contain 1/8th the content of Satellite, so I can't blame people for that. I hear Sirius and XM are pretty sweet.

Lip Man 1
01-10-2006, 12:36 PM
No one cares what the stat geeks think anymore. The trophy resides on the South Side....that's reality.

Lip

Hangar18
01-10-2006, 12:58 PM
Hes not really stepping out when he says "guys in their 30's get hurt".
Sure, theres a chance Thome will get injured in 06, but they really offer nothing more than that. The SOX have very good trainers, and thats why this will counter any Thome age-related issues. Plus the fact that he was so surprisingly excited to become a member of the "world champion chicago white sox"

Tragg
01-11-2006, 09:34 AM
Playing around on google, I found a blog that listed the 2005 PECOTA predicitions for 2005. How do you think they did?

Twins 86-76
Indians 85-77
White Sox 80-82
Tigers 76-86
Royals 69-93

When you live in la la stathead land, pythagorean results, not baseball standings, are reality.
The projections were only 1 game off on a relative basis. According to the pythagoreans (which of course is actual results to the stat-wizards), the Indians were a 99 win team and the Sox a 93 win team; the actual results were only 1 game off the projections (which over-estimated the Sox, relative to Cleveland).
So their projections fit what, to them, is their reality.

CPditka
01-11-2006, 09:58 AM
Yeah the article says, "He's not as excited about Thome ("when a guy hits his 30s and starts getting injured, they keep getting injured")". Then how does he explain Thome's 2004 year in Philly where he hit .274 with a .396 OBP, had 42 hr's and 105 RBI all at the age of 34. Now hes 36 (or going to be)......ooooo what a huge difference.

ChiWhiteSox1337
01-11-2006, 02:20 PM
......and people actually pay for this "insight." I could see why, I'm laughing my butt off at some of those projected numbers. Still, there are plenty of ways to entertain and humor yourself for free on the internet. :D:

hellenicsoxfan
01-11-2006, 07:20 PM
The Sox have probably the best training staff in baseball led by trainer Herm Schnieder. I'm looking for great things from Jim Thome this season.