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View Full Version : What if Contreras becomes a free agent after this season?


Lillian
01-03-2006, 09:36 AM
There have been so many threads regarding Contreras, Uribe, McCarthy, and Tejada, that it is difficult to focus on individual players, and the circumstances surrounding them. In the same way that I wanted everyone to discuss Juan Uribe individually as a player, evaluating him, and assessing his potential, I would like to learn more about the specific consequences of letting Jose Contreras become a free agent at the end of the year.
My feelings about the value of keeping him and having the added insurance of six starters, have already been expressed in previous threads. My thinking here is of a different nature. I know that everyone seems to dread the idea of letting Contreras become a free agent, and my inclination is to agree with that school of thought. However, I'm just wondering if we should automatically assume that that would be a bad strategy.
My question is, what would likely be the consequences of that happening? If we again finish as at least divisional champions, we are not going to have any high draft picks. What exactly is the rule regarding which picks we would receive in exchange for having lost Jose to free agency? In that I understand that it depends upon which team would sign him, which are the most likely teams to do that?
Then the next question is, what kind of talent is anticipated to be in next year's draft? And finally, what would the odds be that he might resign with the Sox then, especially if they win another World Championship?
Please don't clutter this thread with more suggestions of other trades involving Contreras, or with evaluations of his value. Those topics have been discussed ad nauseam.

ilsox7
01-03-2006, 09:42 AM
I've Googled and cannot find the answer to this, so maybe someone can help me here. Because JC's contract is structured as such we will not offer him arbitration and will release him to be a free agent on November 15, would we even get any draft picks? The Yankees had the same situation with Matsui this year. I thought they would receive no draft picks if Matsui had left.

If someone could clear that up, it'd help me at least.

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 10:19 AM
I don't believe that Contreras, unlike Matsui, has a clause that prevent the Sox from offering him arbitration when his contract is up after '06.

Therefore he would probably qualify as a type A free agent and get the Sox a compensatory pick plus IIRC a sandwich pick. So we'd get either the first or 2d round pick of the team signing him, the latter if the pick is in the top 15 or if there's a higher-rated FA that's signed by that team. Plus the sandwich.

gr8mexico
01-03-2006, 10:42 AM
The only way the sox gets the draft pick is if the Sox offer Contreras arbitration and he rejects it and sign with another team. But here is the problem why would be the Sox offer him arbitration they wont need him after next year and would be stuck with him. They wouldn't even be able to trade him because you cant sign and trade.

HomeFish
01-03-2006, 10:50 AM
If he decides to do the FA thing, we'll have the services of a player in his contract year. That's a good thing to have.

Tragg
01-03-2006, 11:01 AM
But here is the problem why would be the Sox offer him arbitration they wont need him after next year .
That assumes we keep him; so, we can do the same thing with him then, that we are going to do with him this upcoming year. He's also, what, 33 , right on the cusp of his last chance for a long-term deal; taking 1 year arbitration deals, just makes his next deal tougher to get.

MERPER
01-03-2006, 02:51 PM
If he departs after next season, then all of us Sox fans wish him good luck on his next stop and thank him for bringing AT LEAST 1 championship to the South Side...

Seriously though, It is not that bad a thing if he departs... he is old and it will free up $8 million for that offseason

We can use that money on a position player if need be or on another starter such as Mulder....

But, the brilliance of KW's moves are that we have 5 other pitchers besides JC signed through 2007, so it's not going to leave us starving for pitching help...

Ahhhhh, it's a great time to be a Sox fan....

DSpivack
01-03-2006, 03:16 PM
If he departs after next season, then all of us Sox fans wish him good luck on his next stop and thank him for bringing AT LEAST 1 championship to the South Side...

Seriously though, It is not that bad a thing if he departs... he is old and it will free up $8 million for that offseason

We can use that money on a position player if need be or on another starter such as Mulder....

But, the brilliance of KW's moves are that we have 5 other pitchers besides JC signed through 2007, so it's not going to leave us starving for pitching help...

Ahhhhh, it's a great time to be a Sox fan....

Hopefully we won't need another starter...I believe Contreras is the only one not signed through at least 2007, and we don't need to resign him if everything goes right with BMac.

Ol' No. 2
01-03-2006, 03:17 PM
I don't believe that Contreras, unlike Matsui, has a clause that prevent the Sox from offering him arbitration when his contract is up after '06.

Therefore he would probably qualify as a type A free agent and get the Sox a compensatory pick plus IIRC a sandwich pick. So we'd get either the first or 2d round pick of the team signing him, the latter if the pick is in the top 15 or if there's a higher-rated FA that's signed by that team. Plus the sandwich.I'm about 90% sure he does have such a clause in his contract.

Edit: Linky (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-051213sox,1,4902833.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines)

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 03:49 PM
I'm about 90% sure he does have such a clause in his contract.

Edit: Linky (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-051213sox,1,4902833.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines)

Ouch. Talk about a significant reduction in his value in trade. No comp picks for Jose if he walks.....This basically guarantees that Jose will be traded IMO unless he's just too dominant for the team to make that move.

Hitmen77
01-03-2006, 03:50 PM
If he decides to do the FA thing, we'll have the services of a player in his contract year. That's a good thing to have.

If he departs after next season, then all of us Sox fans wish him good luck on his next stop and thank him for bringing AT LEAST 1 championship to the South Side...

Seriously though, It is not that bad a thing if he departs... he is old and it will free up $8 million for that offseason

We can use that money on a position player if need be or on another starter such as Mulder....

But, the brilliance of KW's moves are that we have 5 other pitchers besides JC signed through 2007, so it's not going to leave us starving for pitching help...

Ahhhhh, it's a great time to be a Sox fan....

Bingo! With 5 starters locked up through 2007, the Sox are perfectly positioned to keep Jose for the '06 season and let him help us make another serious run at a championship.

If JC then leaves as a free agent then that is something we can live with.

Ol' No. 2
01-03-2006, 04:05 PM
Ouch. Talk about a significant reduction in his value in trade. No comp picks for Jose if he walks.....This basically guarantees that Jose will be traded IMO unless he's just too dominant for the team to make that move.I don't think it's a big deal if he walks. McCarthy will be ready to step in by then. I think Kenny needed to re-sign one of the two (Garland or Contreras) to avoid a situation where 40% of his starting rotation was ready to walk after next year. Besides, I still don't believe all the 6 starters talk. It's a ridiculous waste of resources to park a guy like McCarthy in the bullpen. Kenny is just telling teams that he's not under any pressure to make a trade and teams can't expect to take advantage. But I'll be shocked if one of them doesn't get dealt by the start of spring training. Could be Contreras or Vazquez.

ilsox7
01-03-2006, 04:16 PM
I'm about 90% sure he does have such a clause in his contract.

Edit: Linky (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-051213sox,1,4902833.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines)

That's what I thought. SO we wouldn't get any picks. Well, if he leads us to the promised land again, I really do not care about draft picks.

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 04:46 PM
I don't think it's a big deal if he walks. McCarthy will be ready to step in by then. I think Kenny needed to re-sign one of the two (Garland or Contreras) to avoid a situation where 40% of his starting rotation was ready to walk after next year. Besides, I still don't believe all the 6 starters talk. It's a ridiculous waste of resources to park a guy like McCarthy in the bullpen. Kenny is just telling teams that he's not under any pressure to make a trade and teams can't expect to take advantage. But I'll be shocked if one of them doesn't get dealt by the start of spring training. Could be Contreras or Vazquez.

I'm just saying that relative to your usual FAs, where the team gets solid value in the form of comp picks if they walk, Jose brings less to the table because if he leaves you get nothing.

For that reason and because McCarthy seems ready, I think KW will do his utmost to trade Jose and get something of long-term value rather than taking the '06 value and nothing else.

Ol' No. 2
01-03-2006, 05:21 PM
I'm just saying that relative to your usual FAs, where the team gets solid value in the form of comp picks if they walk, Jose brings less to the table because if he leaves you get nothing.

For that reason and because McCarthy seems ready, I think KW will do his utmost to trade Jose and get something of long-term value rather than taking the '06 value and nothing else.That's a good reason to trade Contreras instead of Vazquez, but it takes two to make a trade. My guess is he'll dangle both Contreras and Vazquez and see what gives him the better deal in return. Besides, if he can get a near-major-league-ready pitching prospect in return, he'll have a ready replacement for 2007 at a much lower price, not to mention a backup in case someone gets hurt.

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 05:30 PM
That's a good reason to trade Contreras instead of Vazquez, but it takes two to make a trade. My guess is he'll dangle both Contreras and Vazquez and see what gives him the better deal in return. Besides, if he can get a near-major-league-ready pitching prospect in return, he'll have a ready replacement for 2007 at a much lower price, not to mention a backup in case someone gets hurt.

Exactly. When I thought Jose could get arb, I thought there was a decent shot that they kept him as insurance because of the WBC & wear & tear and maybe dealt him at the deadline. Now I think they'll get what they can for him.

I still like the idea of trading Vazquez & keeping the DBacks $$$ and signing Jose to the deal he wants. Net is cash neutral and you'll get more for Vazquez IMO.

Ol' No. 2
01-03-2006, 05:35 PM
Exactly. When I thought Jose could get arb, I thought there was a decent shot that they kept him as insurance because of the WBC & wear & tear and maybe dealt him at the deadline. Now I think they'll get what they can for him.

I still like the idea of trading Vazquez & keeping the DBacks $$$ and signing Jose to the deal he wants. Net is cash neutral and you'll get more for Vazquez IMO.I'm not sure which will net more in return. There are plusses on both sides. Which is why I think Kenny will dangle both and see what happens. And I don't think they've given up on an extension for Contreras. Most people thought they weren't going to get a deal done with Garland, but they did.

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 05:47 PM
I'm not sure which will net more in return. There are plusses on both sides. Which is why I think Kenny will dangle both and see what happens. And I don't think they've given up on an extension for Contreras. Most people thought they weren't going to get a deal done with Garland, but they did.

This would be quite an interesting scenario. In fact, if they do resign Jose, I think it spells bye bye to either Garcia or McCarthy. The reason being that Freddy's signed cheapest/shortest and has significant value as a proven top-level pitcher. McCarthy obviously is cheapest and has excellent potential, but is relatively unproven. I have a hard time believing they'd trade him, but if you resign Jose, you have 6 guys locked in for '07 and 3 for '08 enabling you to resign one of Buehrle/Garcia and hopefully plug in Broadway as the #5. Plus you'd think they'd get solid pitching prospects for McCarthy (which would be kind of odd, trading a top-level pitching prospect for another one).

Alternative would be Buehrle, but I just can't see them trading him. They could deal Vazquez, but I'd think Freddy has more value since he's cheaper and has better recept performance.

Ol' No. 2
01-03-2006, 06:00 PM
This would be quite an interesting scenario. In fact, if they do resign Jose, I think it spells bye bye to either Garcia or McCarthy. The reason being that Freddy's signed cheapest/shortest and has significant value as a proven top-level pitcher. McCarthy obviously is cheapest and has excellent potential, but is relatively unproven. I have a hard time believing they'd trade him, but if you resign Jose, you have 6 guys locked in for '07 and 3 for '08 enabling you to resign one of Buehrle/Garcia and hopefully plug in Broadway as the #5. Plus you'd think they'd get solid pitching prospects for McCarthy (which would be kind of odd, trading a top-level pitching prospect for another one).

Alternative would be Buehrle, but I just can't see them trading him. They could deal Vazquez, but I'd think Freddy has more value since he's cheaper and has better recept performance.Am I the only one amazed that we're actually talking about trading away pitchers that we'd have killed for a couple of years ago?

Tragg
01-03-2006, 06:00 PM
I'm not sure which will net more in return. There are plusses on both sides. Which is why I think Kenny will dangle both and see what happens. And I don't think they've given up on an extension for Contreras. Most people thought they weren't going to get a deal done with Garland, but they did. Re the extension, maybe but that's a lot of money to spend on a staff; an McCarthy wouldn't bring an immense amount in trade because he is "unproven" - but he would seem to be real valuable to us because of the payroll leverage he brings. Arbitration buys another year or draft picks. A trade should bring good stuff; good deal, either way.
Maybe we just need 6 this year because we don't really have someone to call up should a pitcher er falter - sort of buying some time, and then offer him arb and let him take it or walk.
On the other hand, I hope it doesn't endanger our ability to re-sign mark buehrle

KyWhiSoxFan
01-03-2006, 09:51 PM
Well, we always could let Jose play the 06 season and still sign him. The timetable would be tight, but we don't necessarily lose him if he plays without a contract.

Flight #24
01-03-2006, 09:55 PM
Am I the only one amazed that we're actually talking about trading away pitchers that we'd have killed for a couple of years ago?

Nope. It's an odd state to be in. Trading away bonafide ace caliber pitchers. Discussions about possibly acquiring high-salaried, top 10 players. Resigning our own FAs.

Oh yeah, and "repeat title". Things have changed, my friend, significantly!