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mikesouthside
12-28-2005, 01:41 PM
I think he's the only one left for arbitration right? With his "EVIL" agent..what is his price tag?

Tekijawa
12-28-2005, 01:47 PM
We also have "South Side" Rob (I can't spell his last name) going to Arbitration too.

Fredsox
12-28-2005, 01:51 PM
In watching the Comcast replays you really appreciate Crede's defense as well as his clutch hitting. If there is a way for KW to lock him up for 3 years I'd love to see it.

On another note, what are Contreras and his agent thinking right now?

WhiteSoxFan84
12-28-2005, 01:54 PM
5 years, $37.5 mill, $7.5 per? That's good enough, no?

We know what to expect from Joe: great defense, 20-30 HRs, 3-5 game-winning hits a year, very clutch, a great clubhouse guy, etc. I think we can get him sign that offer.

ilsox7
12-28-2005, 01:57 PM
5 years, $37.5 mill, $7.5 per? That's good enough, no?

We know what to expect from Joe: great defense, 20-30 HRs, 3-5 game-winning hits a year, very clutch, a great clubhouse guy, etc. I think we can get him sign that offer.

No way. That would be utter insanity. Joe Crede made 400K last year. Again, Joe Crede made 400K last year.

Crede's situation will be determined by his back. If the Sox are confident his back is fine, he may garner a 2 or possibly 3 year deal. Otherwise, he will get a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration at a couple million.

cleanwsox
12-28-2005, 02:01 PM
5 years, $37.5 mill, $7.5 per? That's good enough, no?
:bundy

34 Inch Stick
12-28-2005, 02:05 PM
5 years, $37.5 mill, $7.5 per? That's good enough, no?

.

Not unless he is going to pitch. I would use Koskie as a template for a Crede contract.

SOXSINCE'70
12-28-2005, 02:05 PM
Crede's situation will be determined by his back. If the Sox are confident his back is fine, he may garner a 2 or possibly 3 year deal. Otherwise, he will get a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration at a couple million.

I agree.His back is the determining factor.If it's right,he'll
get a multi year deal.If not, a 1 year deal would not surprise
me.I love his "D".I just wish he could be more consistent at
the plate and drive in a few more runs.To me,I see him as a
.275/.280 hitter with 25 HR's and 90 to 100 RBI's.

peeonwrigley
12-28-2005, 02:10 PM
5 years, $37.5 mill, $7.5 per? That's good enough, no?


The anti-shoota?

mikesouthside
12-28-2005, 02:10 PM
I could see a 3 year 12-15 million. (BACK ISSUES???) Clutch. Keep in mind the issues on this very board about his short comings.

mweflen
12-28-2005, 02:11 PM
No way Joe is worth 7.5 mil a year at this point in his career. MY guess is he'll sign something similar to what Rowand got (3y/$9m IIRC)

R-Mack still is up for arbitration.

lths06
12-28-2005, 02:20 PM
Does "EVIL" agent = Boras?

SOXSINCE'70
12-28-2005, 02:24 PM
Does "EVIL" agent = Boras?

:borass:
"What do you think?? Hey,i'm a resonable guy.5 yrs,110 Mill
is just about right for my client.Hey,never mind his bad back;
quality costs money."

CHIsoxNation
12-28-2005, 02:24 PM
:bundy

My face literally looked like that after I read those numbers.

skottyj242
12-28-2005, 02:28 PM
I would think three years fifteen mil. four,five and six a year.

ma-gaga
12-28-2005, 02:32 PM
With the way salaries work, this is probably the BEST CASE scenario for CREDE:

2006: 1.50
2007: 4.50
2008: 7.50

3 years $13.50m. I expect them to announce this deal in 2 weeks. But I think KW would be a little hesitant to committ this much money to him.

Anything longer/more would be foolish.

Flight #24
12-28-2005, 02:35 PM
Any Joe Crede deal will have starting salaries in the 2mil range and going up from there. For a reasonable facsimile, see the deal signed by Rowand, Aaron following a far better year in 2004. This 5M average salary crap is just that - crap.

Joe's alternative is to go to arbitration on a 1-year deal and have to try and claim that his injury-shortened 2005 season including non-stellar offensive #s are significantly overwhelmed by his performance down the stretch. Not a strong argument to make. Plus, he's arb eligible for IIRC 3 more years, so it's not like the Sox are buying out FA. They're giving him a guaranteed contract and a raise and in exchange getting some cost certainty. He's got little to no negotiating power here, and if it hits arb ain't making more than $2-3M max.

Flight #24
12-28-2005, 02:36 PM
With the way salaries work, this is probably the BEST CASE scenario for CREDE:

2006: 1.50
2007: 4.50
2008: 7.50

3 years $13.50m. I expect them to announce this deal in 2 weeks. But I think KW would be a little hesitant to committ this much money to him.

Anything longer/more would be foolish.

Much more realistic IMO is $1.5-$2.5-$5. Something along the lines of Rowand's deal.

SOXintheBURGH
12-28-2005, 02:36 PM
We also have "South Side" Rob (I can't spell his last name) going to Arbitration too.

Mackowiak.

He was a cult hero in the Burgh.

Exit_Only
12-28-2005, 02:43 PM
There is no way I'd marry Crede in a multi-year deal. I'd dance with him year to year so as not to make a commitment mistake. Some have posted that they're worried about giving a long-term deal due to his back, but I'm more worried about his baseball abilities. He had a heck of a September and October, but he's been known to tank entire months in every season of his career.

Since the Sox own his rights, we can string him along year after year, all the while flirting with other 3B candidates along the way. If we find something better along the way, we're able to easily dump Crede without losing half in the divorce, paying half of his huge contract to the team traded to.

soxfan1983
12-28-2005, 02:50 PM
how long until josh fields is major league ready??? i thought he was suppose to be the future at 3b for the sox... i like crede and everything but with boras as his agent and his playoff dominance defensively, i feel that boras is going to command a hefty salary for crede. would it be wise to sign crede (who is inconsistent at times) for a long term deal if we have a very good 3b prospect sitting waiting?

itsnotrequired
12-28-2005, 02:55 PM
Much more realistic IMO is $1.5-$2.5-$5. Something along the lines of Rowand's deal.

That sounds a touch low but not too much.

But $7.5 million? Not a chance. I believe there are only 6 or 7 third basemen in all the majors that make that much.

HomeFish
12-28-2005, 02:59 PM
2006: 1.50
2007: 4.50
2008: 7.50


No, no, he's a mediocre third baseman, not a mediocre relief pitcher. Those numbers are far too high.

lostletters
12-28-2005, 03:01 PM
7 Million for two years is my guess. I am thinking that is the MAX he will get. Generally 2.5-3.5 million a year. He is an average player, who tends to be pretty clutch. Average players in MLB get 1-2.5 million a year, he gets a little bump because he is very timely and is good in the stretch run.

RetireWoodys28
12-28-2005, 03:22 PM
To me,I see him as a
.275/.280 hitter with 25 HR's and 90 to 100 RBI's.You are quite the optimist! But with all due respect, if we're going to pay Joe Crede a salary based upon projections of him hitting .275-280, we'll be over-paying Joe Crede. A three-year deal for a guy like Crede would be reasonable in the 9-10 million range, IMO. We'll see...

rm0824
12-28-2005, 03:27 PM
Have faith in Kenny. He'll get something reasonable to fair market value for Joe. The ink is still wet on Garland's contract.

ma-gaga
12-28-2005, 03:28 PM
No, no, he's a mediocre third baseman, not a mediocre relief pitcher. Those numbers are far too high.

yeah yeah, I know. I tried to "cap" what he was going to make because some people don't understand the way the pay scale works in MLB.

Flight #24's numbers are better looking. ~3 years, $10m, or maybe ~2 years $6m. I guess it depends on how much risk Crede/Boras are looking for. I'm guessing they'd jump at the 3 year deal.

Wow. I had no idea Mackowiak made $1.50MM last year... He'll make more than Crede?!? I'm going to have to give my "crafty veteran" a couple more dollars.

:gulp:

Daver
12-28-2005, 03:31 PM
There is no need to offer Crede any type of multi-year deal now, he is two years away from being FA eligible.

32nd&Wallace
12-28-2005, 03:31 PM
35 home runs this year. Book it!

MsSoxVixen22
12-28-2005, 03:32 PM
I'm not "good" with salaries and estimating what the players will get but I'm thinking that KW will sign Crede but not for too much (maybe 6-8 mill) for 3 yrs becuase does have that back problem. Either way, I know KW will get Crede to stick around

mweflen
12-28-2005, 03:36 PM
35 home runs this year. Book it!
What odds are you giving on that? I'd give 10 to 1 against. And I like Crede.

Flight #24
12-28-2005, 03:40 PM
35 home runs this year. Book it!

That's nice, but no arbitrator is ever going to award salary based on projections like that. He's going to go primarily off of historical production, and maybe look at similar players and their career trends. However, in general those aren't going to be resulting in anything close to a large salary for Joltin' Joe.

They'll get a deal done because no one really wants arbitration and the battle involved. Plus everyone knows Joe won't get a ton, so they'll settle on something small but decent that gives Joe guarantees and the Sox some cost certainty.

Fuller_Schettman
12-28-2005, 03:46 PM
I'm a huge Crede fan, but I'm with Daver. We don't have to make move one. Let his arbitration play out and see what happens with his back. We have two years...

I do believe he should get at least $1M "bonus" for his post season play.

Optipessimism
12-28-2005, 03:51 PM
No, no, he's a mediocre third baseman, not a mediocre relief pitcher. Those numbers are far too high.

????

Since when was gold glove caliber defense with a line of .255 20+ HR's 60-70+ RBI's out of the 8 spot in your order AND a reputation for coming up with clutch hits mediocre??

I, like a lot of people here, have been really hard on Joe for the last several years, but I think now he has shown that he doesn't have to be a .280 30HR 100RBI guy to be a valuable part of our team.

Now the dollar amounts you are referring to are probably too high, but we just signed AJ to a similar 3 year deal and Joe is better defensively at his position and just as productive if not more so than AJ offensively. Also AJ was known for helping our pitchers, but Joe helps our pitchers just as much by giving them confidence to let an opposing hitter put the ball in play. So if AJ was then only worth the extra money because he's a catcher, I think Joe at something like 3/9-10M is a steal, especially considering that a guy like Joe Randa will make a bit less as his numbers decline while Crede can still get better.

kwolf68
12-28-2005, 04:18 PM
????

Since when was gold glove caliber defense with a line of .255 20+ HR's 60-70+ RBI's out of the 8 spot in your order AND a reputation for coming up with clutch hits mediocre??

I, like a lot of people here, have been really hard on Joe for the last several years, but I think now he has shown that he doesn't have to be a .280 30HR 100RBI guy to be a valuable part of our team.

Now the dollar amounts you are referring to are probably too high, but we just signed AJ to a similar 3 year deal and Joe is better defensively at his position and just as productive if not more so than AJ offensively. Also AJ was known for helping our pitchers, but Joe helps our pitchers just as much by giving them confidence to let an opposing hitter put the ball in play. So if AJ was then only worth the extra money because he's a catcher, I think Joe at something like 3/9-10M is a steal, especially considering that a guy like Joe Randa will make a bit less as his numbers decline while Crede can still get better.

What he said.

ma-gaga
12-28-2005, 04:35 PM
????

Now the dollar amounts you are referring to are probably too high, but we just signed AJ to a similar 3 year deal and Joe is better defensively at his position and just as productive

But Joe is a 4th year player, and AJ is a 6th year player. This is a significantly factor in estimating player salaries.

:gulp:

ilsox7
12-28-2005, 04:37 PM
But Joe is a 4th year player, and AJ is a 6th year player. This is a significantly factor in estimating player salaries.

:gulp:

There is also serious concern about Joe's back.

SOXSINCE'70
12-28-2005, 04:47 PM
You are quite the optimist!
Thanks,but a TRUE optimist (at least one drinking a ton of
White Sox Kool-Aid) might throw these possibilities at you for
a Crede dream season:
.330 BA,40 HR's,130 RBI's.

maurice
12-28-2005, 04:50 PM
Since when was gold glove caliber defense with a line of .255 20+ HR's 60-70+ RBI's out of the 8 spot in your order AND a reputation for coming up with clutch hits mediocre??

Again, the relevant question is how an arbitrator will measure his value. His AVE over the past several years actually is considerably worse than mediocre, especially since he rarely walks. The power increases his value a bit, but there is no way that an arbitrator will weigh his defense and clutch hitting as heavily as you do.

considering that a guy like Joe Randa will make a bit less as his numbers decline while Crede can still get better.

Randa isn't restricted like Crede. Also, while Crede "can still get better," he also can get worse, particularly with his bad back and track record of getting worse.

Tragg
12-28-2005, 04:56 PM
I say we take our chances with Crede in arbitration for the next 3 years. His offense isn't good enough to wed him to a high-priced long term deal, and while I like and have always liked Crede, I wouldn't risk a long-term deal on him yet.

I reject the notion that Crede has a track record of getting worse. HIs "decline" in 2004 was marginal, well within the "margin of averages" (my term) of a baseball season. A .50 OBP decline is getting worse; a .09 OBP decline is not. Plus his HR totals have increased each year. I don't think he's gotten any better with the bat, but he hasn't gotten worse either.

maurice
12-28-2005, 05:23 PM
I reject the notion that Crede has a track record of getting worse.

I don't mean this year. Crede's 2005 numbers are better than his horrible 2004 numbers (though they're extremely similar to his disappointing career averages). However, from 2002 through 2004, Crede's AVE, OBP, SLG, and (therefore) OPS got worse every single year. That "track record of getting worse" is not the expected career path for a highly touted youngster.

his HR totals have increased each year

IMO, HR totals for Sox players are deceiving. As Crede's HR total rose over the past 3 years, his 2B total went down. That's consistent with the experience of Konerko and others after the Sox redesigned the roof at the Cell. My oft-repeated theory is that the new roof turns 2B into HR. Crede's splits support this theory.

Tragg
12-28-2005, 05:35 PM
I don't mean this year. Crede's 2005 numbers are better than his horrible 2004 numbers (though they're extremely similar to his disappointing career averages). However, from 2002 through 2004, Crede's AVE, OBP, SLG, and (therefore) OPS got worse every single year. That "track record of getting worse" is not the expected career path for a highly touted youngster.
2002 was 1/3 of a season; I throw that out. He went down a little from 2003-2004 and went up a little from 2004-2005. Putting it together, he's basically stayed the same, as I see it.
I wish these guys batting down in the order would go ahead and take a walk now and then - it's almost like they figure that they have to drive the ball every at bat, because the next hitter's worse than they are. Or maybe they don't want to let any chance at a RBI pass.
I noticed even Dye was a much better hitter batting 3rd than he was 5th, because he didn't seem to mind walking in front of Konerko, but wouldn't do it in front of Rowand and Crede (I haven't verified that statistically; just a visual impression on my part).

chisoxmike
12-28-2005, 05:39 PM
No, no, he's a mediocre third baseman, not a mediocre relief pitcher. Those numbers are far too high.

:rolling:

Lip Man 1
12-28-2005, 05:52 PM
I can't recall any cases where a Scott Boras client did not go the free agent route so I'd be shocked if the Sox locked up Crede long term. I'd imagine they'll go year to year with him until they trade him before he leaves on his own.

Lip

HomeFish
12-28-2005, 07:29 PM
Thanks,but a TRUE optimist (at least one drinking a ton of
White Sox Kool-Aid) might throw these possibilities at you for
a Crede dream season:
.330 BA,40 HR's,130 RBI's.

Sure, when I pitch for KC, my friends make up the 3-4-5 spots in the Tigers rotation, and the Twins replace Johan Santana with a trained chimp, Crede might put that up.

Meanwhile, back in reality, his swing problems mean he will never hit over .270, much less .300.

Exit_Only
12-28-2005, 07:34 PM
I reject the notion that Crede has a track record of getting worse. HIs "decline" in 2004 was marginal, well within the "margin of averages" (my term) of a baseball season. A .50 OBP decline is getting worse; a .09 OBP decline is not. Plus his HR totals have increased each year. I don't think he's gotten any better with the bat, but he hasn't gotten worse either.
You say Crede's decline in 2004 from 2003 was "marginal," and "well withing the 'margin of averages,'" then say "Plus his HR totals have increased each year."

So a batting average that declines from .261 to .239 from one season to the next holds less weight in your "margin of average" formula than 3-year home run total increases of one home run per year? :nuts:

HomeFish
12-28-2005, 07:36 PM
So a batting average that declines from .261 to .239 from one season to the next is a "margin of average," yet you don't consider 3-year home run totals of 20, 21, 22 as "margin of averages"? :dunno:

That increase from 20 to 21 corresponds with the new roof, doesn't it? And therefore the park becoming more homer-friendly.

Exit_Only
12-28-2005, 07:41 PM
That increase from 20 to 21 corresponds with the new roof, doesn't it? And therefore the park becoming more homer-friendly.

I don't understand the point you're trying to make.

SOXSINCE'70
12-28-2005, 09:10 PM
Meanwhile, back in reality, his swing problems mean he will never hit over .270, much less .300.

But is .270,20 to 25 HR's and 90 to 95 RBI's a bad thing??
Look,I know Crede is no Mike Schmidt with the bat,but i've watched
White Sox baseball for the last 35 years (I know,you're happy for me),
and I have seen worse at third (Carlos Martinez and Greg Norton
are recent players that come to mind.And add Chris Snopek to
and the immortal Chris Sabo to that list).

Jjav829
12-28-2005, 09:16 PM
I say get rid of Crede. Clearly he has peaked and will only decline from here. Check it out. I projected Crede's next 4 years based on the rate at which his HRs have increased and can be expected to decrease. Not good...

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=3727&d=1135826080

Seriously though, while I would like to see Crede stay here for a while because I do expect him to improve, I don't see a reason to lock him up right now.

beckett21
12-28-2005, 09:24 PM
I say get rid of Crede. Clearly he has peaked and will only decline from here. Check it out. I projected Crede's next 4 years based on the rate at which his HRs have increased and can be expected to decrease. Not good...

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=3727&d=1135826080

Seriously though, while I would like to see Crede stay here for a while because I do expect him to improve, I don't see a reason to lock him up right now.

Love it. :roflmao:


This site will never be the same again after HomeFish and his Etch-a-Sketch graphics. :cool:

Brian26
12-28-2005, 09:26 PM
The only arbitration case the Sox have had to deal with in the last 5 or 6 years was Foulke in 2001. Do they offer Crede a contract to avoid arbitration completely?

Hitmen77
12-28-2005, 09:28 PM
I can't recall any cases where a Scott Boras client did not go the free agent route so I'd be shocked if the Sox locked up Crede long term. I'd imagine they'll go year to year with him until they trade him before he leaves on his own.

Lip

Wasn't there a Sox player recently (within the last couple of years) who fired Boras, got another agent, and worked out an extension with the Sox? I seem to remember that happening, but I don't recall which player.

Brian26
12-28-2005, 09:31 PM
Wasn't there a Sox player recently (within the last couple of years) who fired Boras, got another agent, and worked out an extension with the Sox? I seem to remember that happening, but I don't recall which player.

The antithesis of the Mags situation.

D. TODD
12-28-2005, 09:33 PM
Come on Joe is in no position to garner a big multi year deal at this point. If the purpose is to avoid arbitration well o.k. give him a bit more then he would get through the arbitrator. That is nowhere near some of the numbers that people have thrown out there in this thread.

slavko
12-28-2005, 09:33 PM
Wasn't there a Sox player recently (within the last couple of years) who fired Boras, got another agent, and worked out an extension with the Sox? I seem to remember that happening, but I don't recall which player.

Uribe.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-28-2005, 09:44 PM
You guys don't think Joe Crede will be looked at as a right-handed Eric Chavez with a little worse batting average in 1-2 years? And considering Chavez is making $11 mill per, you guys don't think Crede will be worth $7 mill per? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I said he would possibly get a 5 years, $37 mill deal.

ilsox7
12-28-2005, 10:01 PM
You guys don't think Joe Crede will be looked at as a right-handed Eric Chavez with a little worse batting average in 1-2 years? And considering Chavez is making $11 mill per, you guys don't think Crede will be worth $7 mill per? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I said he would possibly get a 5 years, $37 mill deal.

Chavez's numbers are in a completely different league than Crede's. We're talking an additional 10-15 HR's per year, an additional 40 RBI's per year, and 30 points on the BA. Not to mention that they are the same age.

soxinem1
12-28-2005, 10:24 PM
I am not the biggest Crede fan, but last year right before and then after he came back from his hand injury, I noticed a change in him.

For the first time, even including the good partial season he had in 2002, Crede dropped the big part of the bat and consistently drove the ball. Most of the time, especially when he got elevation, it took off. And he showed a confidence never seen before, and did a lot of this damage off some good pitchers. I never saw the ball jump off this guys bat so fast as we witnessed from September on through the playoffs.

This is a guy that has given us fits for a few years now with his streakiness and inconsistency, so I say this with some caution. But the stats do show that Joe is pretty good at making contact. If he hits a hard .250 or .260 like that, it only makes this line up one of the most balanced, if not feared, in all of MLB.

He may be no Eric Chavez, but he is one of the best fielders at his position, and the starting third baseman for a World Champion.

I would not be suprised to see him hit 30 HR's next year, especially with the hitters in this line up and if he gets close to 500 AB's. He may well be the most productive #8 hitter in the ML.

I give him 2006 to prove himself. If he has another 2004 type year, it may be time to give Fields a serious look in 2006.

D. TODD
12-28-2005, 10:24 PM
You guys don't think Joe Crede will be looked at as a right-handed Eric Chavez with a little worse batting average in 1-2 years? And considering Chavez is making $11 mill per, you guys don't think Crede will be worth $7 mill per? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I said he would possibly get a 5 years, $37 mill deal.
Not even close! I like Joe, but he is a .250 hitter with 20 to 25 homers per year at this point. He sir is no Eric Chavez.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-29-2005, 01:53 AM
Chavez's numbers are in a completely different league than Crede's. We're talking an additional 10-15 HR's per year, an additional 40 RBI's per year, and 30 points on the BA. Not to mention that they are the same age.

im not saying crede is in the same league as chavez, yet, but am i wrong to think that crede might be on his way to the same league? i just want you guys' opinions. because i see a lot of potential in this kid especially with all the confidence he picked up the last 9 months.

Pureone
12-29-2005, 02:03 AM
im not saying crede is in the same league as chavez, yet, but am i wrong to think that crede might be on his way to the same league? i just want you guys' opinions. because i see a lot of potential in this kid especially with all the confidence he picked up the last 9 months.

While he might have picked up confidence that still doesn't change the fact that every year I have been saying the same thing you just said: "I see a lot of potential in this kid."

Let's hope your right.

ilsox7
12-29-2005, 02:52 AM
im not saying crede is in the same league as chavez, yet, but am i wrong to think that crede might be on his way to the same league? i just want you guys' opinions. because i see a lot of potential in this kid especially with all the confidence he picked up the last 9 months.

Maybe he is on his way to great things, but maybe he isn't. That doesn't justify a deal similar to what Chavez has or even anything close until Crede actually produces at that level. As I said, they are the same age and their production is not even remotely similar.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-29-2005, 04:03 AM
Maybe he is on his way to great things, but maybe he isn't. That doesn't justify a deal similar to what Chavez has or even anything close until Crede actually produces at that level. As I said, they are the same age and their production is not even remotely similar.

Chavez's first 110+ games season came in 1999. Crede's came in 2003. Chavez had a 4 year headstart on Crede. That maybe because Crede wasn't ready OR it maybe that the two organizations took two completely different approaches with two very similar players?

And in the postseason? HAH, Chavez should call Crede for some advice next time the A's make the playoffs:

Chavez Career Postseason: 20 G, 85 AB, .224 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI
Crede Career Postseason: 12 G, 45 AB, .289 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI (3 WS HRs)

I'll take our guy over Chavez any day. I'd pay him well too. I think Crede will hit his prime in 2 years and I see a 40 HR season in that span.


http://www.sportinglife.com/pictures/general/joecredefourthinning.jpg
"Jooeeee Creeddeeeeeeee!"

ilsox7
12-29-2005, 04:08 AM
Chavez's first 110+ games season came in 1999. Crede's came in 2003. Chavez had a 4 year headstart on Crede. That maybe because Crede wasn't ready OR it maybe that the two organizations took two completely different approaches with two very similar players?

And in the postseason? HAH, Chavez should call Crede for some advice next time the A's make the playoffs:

Chavez Career Postseason: 20 G, 85 AB, .224 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI
Crede Career Postseason: 12 G, 45 AB, .289 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI (3 WS HRs)

I'll take our guy over Chavez any day. I'd pay him well too. I think Crede will hit his prime in 2 years and I see a 40 HR season in that span.


http://www.sportinglife.com/pictures/general/joecredefourthinning.jpg
"Jooeeee Creeddeeeeeeee!"

The post season sample size is WAY too small to draw any conclusions from. I am one of Crede's biggest supporters around these parts. But Chavez is a better player. They are the same age, so no matter where they are in their developments stages, Chavez is ahead in all aspects of the game.

Crede is under control of the Sox for 2 (maybe 3) more years. He will make a couple million this year. There is no reason to go crazy and offer him a contract he does not deserve. If he starts to put up Chavez type numbers, he will most likely leave after his arbitration years as Boras is his agent. I sure hope Crede hits 40 HR's one day, but there is absolutely 0 evidence to show that he will. In fact, the most HR's he has hit in any single professional season is 24.

Tragg
12-29-2005, 07:46 AM
You say Crede's decline in 2004 from 2003 was "marginal," and "well withing the 'margin of averages,'" then say "Plus his HR totals have increased each year."

So a batting average that declines from .261 to .239 from one season to the next holds less weight in your "margin of average" formula than 3-year home run total increases of one home run per year? :nuts: I don't consider batting average a particularly enlightening statistic;OBP is, and that went down by .09 - indeed, a marginal decline. He also had the best OPS of his career in 2005 (when playing a full season), but I'm not champinoning it as "he's an improved hitter" either. He's basically the same.

FarWestChicago
12-29-2005, 08:27 AM
R-Mack:puking: :puking:

Did you actually type that? Are you not incredibly embarrassed? Give it a rest!! :angry:

:puking: :puking:

FarWestChicago
12-29-2005, 08:32 AM
Love it. :roflmao:


This site will never be the same again after HomeFish and his Etch-a-Sketch graphics. :cool:It was a highlight in the history of this site. Well done, Jjav. :thumbsup:

mweflen
12-29-2005, 09:12 AM
:puking: :puking:

Did you actually type that? Are you not incredibly embarrassed? Give it a rest!! :angry:

:puking: :puking:

I'm embarrassed for you... does that count?

Exit_Only
12-29-2005, 09:24 AM
Chavez's first 110+ games season came in 1999. Crede's came in 2003. Chavez had a 4 year headstart on Crede. That maybe because Crede wasn't ready OR it maybe that the two organizations took two completely different approaches with two very similar players?

And in the postseason? HAH, Chavez should call Crede for some advice next time the A's make the playoffs:

Chavez Career Postseason: 20 G, 85 AB, .224 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI
Crede Career Postseason: 12 G, 45 AB, .289 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI (3 WS HRs)

I'll take our guy over Chavez any day. I'd pay him well too. I think Crede will hit his prime in 2 years and I see a 40 HR season in that span.
I understand you like Crede, but as ilsox7 said, why pay Crede when you don't have to? And it'd be wise to wait until Crede produces his phantom line of .280/40/95 before you pay him for it.

Joe Crede is nowhere near as good of a baseball player as Eric Chavez. Not just offensively, either. Remember that full speed sliding catch havez made on a foul popup as he slid into the dugout? Crede cannot make those speedy, athletic plays. Thankfully he doesn't have to in Comiskey.

And your stats above are wrong. Crede hit 2 home runs in the Series, not 3.

Flight #24
12-29-2005, 10:00 AM
You guys don't think Joe Crede will be looked at as a right-handed Eric Chavez with a little worse batting average in 1-2 years? And considering Chavez is making $11 mill per, you guys don't think Crede will be worth $7 mill per? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I said he would possibly get a 5 years, $37 mill deal.

Crede could get there in a few years. But the key is that he hasn't done that yet, so in arbitration, he's not going to get paid like that.

Joe's options are to go to arbitration and get something like $1-2M, or sign a long-term deal as offered by the Sox. If he goes out and has a better '06, he can command a higher salary in arbitration depending on how much better he does. Or his back could act up and/or his performance suffer and he could get cut or get no increase in arb.

If he signs a cheap deal with the Sox, he locks in maybe salaries of 2-5M over the next 3 years. That's likely not a ton less than he'd get year to year in arbitration barring a significant improvement in performance (i.e. 30+HR, .290+BA). And he's got downside guarantees that should be able to keep his young family set comfortably for life (while not rich).

Chicken Dinner
12-29-2005, 10:53 AM
3 years for 9 mil is tops.

maurice
12-29-2005, 02:52 PM
Chavez's first 110+ games season came in 1999. Crede's came in 2003. Chavez had a 4 year headstart on Crede. That maybe because Crede wasn't ready OR it maybe that the two organizations took two completely different approaches with two very similar players?

No, it's because Chavez is much better than Crede. It's not like Crede was playing college football or something. They were both pro baseball players at pretty much the same time. Chavez was simply a better baseball player.

Crede's relative lack of production was caused by Crede, not the Sox organization. If he finally got it through his head that his old swing doesn't work, maybe he can take another step forward in 2006. KW should just sit back, wait, and see.

MasQbellesa
12-29-2005, 05:20 PM
Is it Wednesday yet?

WhiteSoxFan84
12-29-2005, 08:18 PM
I understand you like Crede, but as ilsox7 said, why pay Crede when you don't have to? And it'd be wise to wait until Crede produces his phantom line of .280/40/95 before you pay him for it.

Joe Crede is nowhere near as good of a baseball player as Eric Chavez. Not just offensively, either. Remember that full speed sliding catch havez made on a foul popup as he slid into the dugout? Crede cannot make those speedy, athletic plays. Thankfully he doesn't have to in Comiskey.

And your stats above are wrong. Crede hit 2 home runs in the Series, not 3.

First, the 2 HRs in the WS, you are right. I saw 3, but it was RBIs not HRs in the WS.

Second, I'm not saying pay him that now. But with him becoming a FA soon (should become an unrestricted by 2007 or 2008 if I'm not mistaken), you would think a long term extension will be in the works. With Konerko getting a 5-year deal, why shouldn't Crede? Maybe not 5 years, $35 mill, but how about 5 years, $20-$25 mill?

Daver
12-29-2005, 08:24 PM
First, the 2 HRs in the WS, you are right. I saw 3, but it was RBIs not HRs in the WS.

Second, I'm not saying pay him that now. But with him becoming a FA soon (should become an unrestricted by 2007 or 2008 if I'm not mistaken), you would think a long term extension will be in the works. With Konerko getting a 5-year deal, why shouldn't Crede? Maybe not 5 years, $35 mill, but how about 5 years, $20-$25 mill?

You want to give a five year guaranteed contract to a player that has back issues that have not been diagnosed?

You'll make a fine GM for the Blue Jays some day.

Brian26
12-29-2005, 08:28 PM
You want to give a five year guaranteed contract to a player that has back issues that have not been diagnosed?

You'll make a fine GM for the Blue Jays some day.

LOL. If you think the Crede contract is bad, wait until you see what he wants to offer Mark Prior.

Exit_Only
12-29-2005, 09:20 PM
First, the 2 HRs in the WS, you are right. I saw 3, but it was RBIs not HRs in the WS.

Second, I'm not saying pay him that now. But with him becoming a FA soon (should become an unrestricted by 2007 or 2008 if I'm not mistaken), you would think a long term extension will be in the works. With Konerko getting a 5-year deal, why shouldn't Crede? Maybe not 5 years, $35 mill, but how about 5 years, $20-$25 mill?
Because Crede is much more replaceable than Konerko. Crede is a #8 hitter whose numbers can be matched or bettered by a player making much less than $20-25 million.

It's not hard to find someone to hit .250 with a weak .300 OBP. Crede's swing needs constant maintenance, and he is prone to slump entire halves of seasons.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-29-2005, 09:33 PM
LOL. If you think the Crede contract is bad, wait until you see what he wants to offer Mark Prior.

That's pretty funny Brian, what do I want to offer Prior? Considering I've never even discussed a Mark Prior contract offer in my life, I'm sure the one you make up and give me credit for will be entertaining.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-29-2005, 09:42 PM
You want to give a five year guaranteed contract to a player that has back issues that have not been diagnosed?

You'll make a fine GM for the Blue Jays some day.

How many games has Crede missed his whole career because of injuries? Last year he missed maybe... 20 games? He was in only 132 games last year, but Ozzie rested his starters a lot throughout the season, so I'm pretty sure he didn't miss 30 games because of injuries. I know his back problems are a new problem, but come on, how man players today don't have some sort of back problem? Everyone of them is having back aches from time to time. Some bitch about it and sit games out, others play and watch their numbers slip. A select few play and kick ass. We'll see which group Crede falls under if his issues get out of hand.

Also, if you believe these Crede back issues will be a huge problem, why don't you take a look at the Paul Konerko ankle issues that every team that went after him was worried about? He got a 5-year deal didn't he? And Konerko is a bit older, so his injuries would be bigger of an issue.

And as for your last statement, I'll gladly take the Toronto Blue Jays GM position. Hey Daver, I heard you played some catcher in your days, interested in being our back-up with a shot at being our starter? How does 5 years, $45 million sound? :D:

ilsox7
12-29-2005, 09:44 PM
How many games has Crede missed his whole career because of injuries? Last year he missed maybe... 20 games? He was in only 132 games last year, but Ozzie rested his starters a lot throughout the season, so I'm pretty sure he didn't miss 30 games because of injuries. I know his back problems are a new problem, but come on, how man players today don't have some sort of back problem? Everyone of them is having back aches from time to time. Some bitch about it and sit games out, others play and watch their numbers slip. A select few play and kick ass. We'll see which group Crede falls under if his issues get out of hand.

Also, if you believe these Crede back issues will be a huge problem, why don't you take a look at the Paul Konerko ankle issues that every team that went after him was worried about? He got a 5-year deal didn't he? And Konerko is a bit older, so his injuries would be bigger of an issue.

And as for your last statement, I'll gladly take the Toronto Blue Jays GM position. Hey Daver, I heard you played some catcher in your days, interested in being our back-up with a shot at being our starter? How does 5 years, $45 million sound? :D:
You've never had back problems, have you? It's a whole different ballgame.

And your facts about PK are off. It was a hip condition that has been known about for years.

Also, I challenge you to find 1 major leaguer with Crede's level of production, at the point Crede is in his career, who got a 5 year deal worth 30-40 million.

Daver
12-29-2005, 09:50 PM
How many games has Crede missed his whole career because of injuries? Last year he missed maybe... 20 games? He was in only 132 games last year, but Ozzie rested his starters a lot throughout the season, so I'm pretty sure he didn't miss 30 games because of injuries. I know his back problems are a new problem, but come on, how man players today don't have some sort of back problem? Everyone of them is having back aches from time to time. Some bitch about it and sit games out, others play and watch their numbers slip. A select few play and kick ass. We'll see which group Crede falls under if his issues get out of hand.

Also, if you believe these Crede back issues will be a huge problem, why don't you take a look at the Paul Konerko ankle issues that every team that went after him was worried about? He got a 5-year deal didn't he? And Konerko is a bit older, so his injuries would be bigger of an issue.

And as for your last statement, I'll gladly take the Toronto Blue Jays GM position. Hey Daver, I heard you played some catcher in your days, interested in being our back-up with a shot at being our starter? How does 5 years, $45 million sound? :D:

The Sox rested Crede because of back spasms, not to give him a day off, they also have two years to diagnose that problem before he can even think about applying for FA, it would be foolish from a business standpoint to sign him long term now.

Paul Konerko does not have an ankle problem, he has a degenerating hip problem, that the Sox training staff believes is in remission, he has not missed a game because of it for a season and half after undergoing treatment.

I'll take that job as long as I do not have to take a physical, there is no way I could pass it, I am old and decrepit.

:)

vafan
12-29-2005, 10:11 PM
There is no way I'd marry Crede in a multi-year deal. I'd dance with him year to year so as not to make a commitment mistake. Some have posted that they're worried about giving a long-term deal due to his back, but I'm more worried about his baseball abilities. He had a heck of a September and October, but he's been known to tank entire months in every season of his career.

Since the Sox own his rights, we can string him along year after year, all the while flirting with other 3B candidates along the way. If we find something better along the way, we're able to easily dump Crede without losing half in the divorce, paying half of his huge contract to the team traded to.

But the value of a multi-year deal if someone better comes along is that Crede is more marketable in a trade if he's signed instead of just being arb-eligible.

The issue is not next year. Contract or arbitration, the number is going to be basically the same. The issue is years 2-3-4. Boras may advise Crede just to keep this open, but with his back, Crede has some incentive to sign a deal. On the flip side, if Crede can eliminate his terrible months, he's going to put up pretty damn good numbers some year - 30+ HRs, 90-100 RBI (think Aramis Ramirez with a gold glove) - and then he's going to be really pricey.
The Sox will save money by signing him now.

TornLabrum
12-29-2005, 11:17 PM
The Sox rested Crede because of back spasms, not to give him a day off, they also have two years to diagnose that problem before he can even think about applying for FA, it would be foolish from a business standpoint to sign him long term now.

Paul Konerko does not have an ankle problem, he has a degenerating hip problem, that the Sox training staff believes is in remission, he has not missed a game because of it for a season and half after undergoing treatment.

I'll take that job as long as I do not have to take a physical, there is no way I could pass it, I am old and decrepit.

:)

Daver, the problem has been diagnosed. It's two herniated discs. My mom had one herniated disc that she had surgery for maybe 30 years or so ago. She still has to be careful about throwing her back out. Sometimes it goes out for no apparent reason.

vafan
12-30-2005, 12:20 AM
The way to look at Crede is to look at his month to month splits. For two months last year, he was HORRIBLE. For the rest of the time, he was as good offensively as Eric Chavez. (See below.)

So, if Crede really has changed his approach and learned how to lay off bad pitches, then he could be ready to explode next year. If he does, his arbitration number is going to climb very fast. (We waited on Konerko, perhaps prudently, but it cost us. Signing Crede now would likely save the Sox money.)

Crede

April 791224602953900.304.368.456.824
May 848132039521701.155.211.286.496
June 80112230617521010.275.333.538.871
July 69102150412401100.304.342.551.893
August 58261011211000.103.148.172.320
September 5811224061340800.379.419.7591.178
October 401000100100.250.250.250.500
Total 4325410921022622586611.252.303.454.756


Chavez

April 9361850291011800.194.276.312.588
May 109132630214602900.239.276.321.597
June 10326391017211201710.379.440.6991.139
July 1031728506181012610.272.333.495.828
August 1041631805161202340.298.368.519.887
September 105132480522801600.229.278.448.726
October 812100100000.250.250.375.625
Total 625921684012710158212960.269.329.466.794

getonbckthr
12-30-2005, 12:50 AM
My biggest Joe Crede fear is that he will turn into thye player that he was projected to be. With that being said if we can turn Crede into say a Chavez or equilavent i'm all for it. I would really like to see a Crede, Contreras and Borchard for Blalock, Wilkerson and prospect type deal. Hank is only 25 which is younger than Joe, as good defensively as Joe, better offensively, is signed long term and will end up being cheaper. Also by making that deal I remember reading on this site that the Drays would want Fields and young arms in return for Crawford. Getting Blalock would allow us to explore those options. An offseason of adding Bmac, Thome, Blalock, Vasquez, Crawford and Mackowiak for Rowand, Young, Crede, Contreras, Fields and Marte wouldn't be that bad.

FarWestChicago
12-30-2005, 12:52 AM
I'm embarrassed for you... does that count?I didn't invent the worst nickname in the last decade like you did. :roflmao:

IronFisk
12-30-2005, 01:14 AM
Daver, the problem has been diagnosed. It's two herniated discs. My mom had one herniated disc that she had surgery for maybe 30 years or so ago. She still has to be careful about throwing her back out. Sometimes it goes out for no apparent reason.

I have two herniated discs. I'd rather have any other joint pain. Can't think of anything more stingy to heal. I like Crede, but he's WAY too fragile for too many years and too much $$$.

Exit_Only
12-30-2005, 09:54 AM
How many games has Crede missed his whole career because of injuries? Last year he missed maybe... 20 games? He was in only 132 games last year, but Ozzie rested his starters a lot throughout the season, so I'm pretty sure he didn't miss 30 games because of injuries. I know his back problems are a new problem, but come on, how man players today don't have some sort of back problem? Everyone of them is having back aches from time to time. Some bitch about it and sit games out, others play and watch their numbers slip. A select few play and kick ass. We'll see which group Crede falls under if his issues get out of hand.

That's a horrible argument. Of the Sox's 25 players, the only one outside of Crede that had a back problem was Hermanson.

It's obvious you like Crede and are arguing to us about it like you're Scott Boras and we're an arbitrator. You have confidence he will drastically improve into a good player when there is no evidence that suggests he will.

Exit_Only
12-30-2005, 10:01 AM
But the value of a multi-year deal if someone better comes along is that Crede is more marketable in a trade if he's signed instead of just being arb-eligible.
HA! If Crede doesn't get any better he won't be more valuable in a trade. That contract would work against him and lower his trade value.

The issue is not next year. Contract or arbitration, the number is going to be basically the same. The issue is years 2-3-4. Boras may advise Crede just to keep this open, but with his back, Crede has some incentive to sign a deal. On the flip side, if Crede can eliminate his terrible months, he's going to put up pretty damn good numbers some year - 30+ HRs, 90-100 RBI (think Aramis Ramirez with a gold glove) - and then he's going to be really pricey.
The Sox will save money by signing him now.
Again, why risk paying for that production and years when he has tanked entire months every year of his career? His chronic back problems are a risk, but IMO, not as much of a risk as his swing that needs constant maintenance.