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View Full Version : Can A.J. get back to form offensively?


SoxFan76
12-19-2005, 05:45 PM
I'm very happy to see he signed an extension, and I love AJ. He really seemed to turn around the careers of Garland and Contreras, and arguably Cotts, Politte, Jenks, Hermanson, etc.

But as we all noticed, his offensive numbers were down. He hit a career high in homers, but his average dropped significantly. What's the deal? You think he can return to being a .290-.300 hitter? I wouldn't mind seeing his HR numbers go down for an increased average.

What do you all think?

Ol' No. 2
12-19-2005, 05:53 PM
I'm very happy to see he signed an extension, and I love AJ. He really seemed to turn around the careers of Garland and Contreras, and arguably Cotts, Politte, Jenks, Hermanson, etc.

But as we all noticed, his offensive numbers were down. He hit a career high in homers, but his average dropped significantly. What's the deal? You think he can return to being a .290-.300 hitter? I wouldn't mind seeing his HR numbers go down for an increased average.

What do you all think?Homefish already answered this question for you.:rolleyes:

batmanZoSo
12-19-2005, 05:54 PM
I'm very happy to see he signed an extension, and I love AJ. He really seemed to turn around the careers of Garland and Contreras, and arguably Cotts, Politte, Jenks, Hermanson, etc.

But as we all noticed, his offensive numbers were down. He hit a career high in homers, but his average dropped significantly. What's the deal? You think he can return to being a .290-.300 hitter? I wouldn't mind seeing his HR numbers go down for an increased average.

What do you all think?

He's close to a .300 hitter lifetime. Better lineup now, less pressure. He could end up putting up the same power numbers, but with an average more in line with his career mark. Average is overrated, though. I'd rather have consistency over one month of .410 hitting that skews the batting average toward .300, offsetting the 5 other months of hitting at a .250 clip...and keep hitting the home runs. We still need some pop from the left side from him.

RallyBowl
12-19-2005, 05:54 PM
Didn't you hear? The answer, of course, is no. Homefish has put together a compelling case for the steady decline of his batting average. By 2021, AJ will be batting -.138.

SoxFan76
12-19-2005, 05:56 PM
I don't really read Homefish's posts, I keep meaning to put him on my ignore list but I keep forgetting. His posts are basically useless.

Ol' No. 2
12-19-2005, 05:57 PM
I don't really read Homefish's posts, I keep meaning to put him on my ignore list but I keep forgetting. His posts are basically useless.Think of the entertainment value you'd be missing. The one with the graphs is a peach.

1951Campbell
12-19-2005, 06:00 PM
If AJ improves or stays where he is at right now, he is a decent to great hitting catcher, and this is a fine move. You won't find a better hitting catcher that isn't overpriced.

BUT

I looked at the stats, and 2005 wasn't AJ's first declining year. He has been in a steady decline since 2003. Look at the chart I made:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v353/winfieldscott/AJ.jpg

By the end of this contract extension, if the current rate of BA decline continues, AJ will be hitting .170 -- and we can certainly find a cheaper .170 hitter.

So we'll have to see.

Q.E.D.

Pureone
12-19-2005, 06:15 PM
Average? Live and die by the homerun!

:redneck

chisox06
12-19-2005, 06:17 PM
Considering the way AJ handled the pitching staff this year, if he were to put up his offensive numbers last year for the next 3 I would be more than happy. Really nice to have this guy behind the plate again.

SoxFan76
12-19-2005, 06:19 PM
Q.E.D.

:o::?::rolleyes:

:dtroll:

batmanZoSo
12-19-2005, 06:21 PM
Q.E.D.
http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c55/ZoSoKarl/Homefish.jpg

StockdaleForVeep
12-19-2005, 06:22 PM
http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c55/ZoSoKarl/Homefish.jpg
:kneeslap::rolling::roflmao:

Also, maybe an image of homefish in 2010 as well
http://www.monty-pythons.com/album/Episode_09/07-gumby-crooner.jpg

1951Campbell
12-19-2005, 06:23 PM
http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c55/ZoSoKarl/Homefish.jpg

Can't...stop...laughing.........oxygen...scarce...

maurice
12-19-2005, 06:42 PM
http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c55/ZoSoKarl/Homefish.jpg

ROTFLMFAO! Stop, you're killing me. Can barely type. [passes out]

JorgeFabregas
12-19-2005, 06:48 PM
AJ's OPS was only about 30 points off his career average and about the same as last year. I would say he will likely put up similar numbers...and that's fine. He's getting paid to be an ok hitter and a great manager of the staff.

Fredsox
12-19-2005, 08:06 PM
Obviously the chart predicting the decline in AJ's batting average is logically flawed as individual human behavior and abilities do not follow a chart. There could be a variety of reasons for the differences in the statistical summary including who was pitching in the league at the time, where he hit in the batting order, things like that. Secondly I call BS on his conclusion. His projection does not take into consideration the INCREASES in AJ's batting average. Here are AJ's averages for the past 5 years (since he became a full-time player):

2001 .289
2002 .300
2003 .312
2004 .272
2005 .257

It is statistically fallacious to assume that the average will decline just because it has in 2 consecutive years, it's just as likely that it will go UP as it did in the previous years. That's why it is more appropriate to look at a player's lifetime average, in the case .287, and assume that the player will hit close to that figure. You cannot assume a decline anymore than you can assume an increase. You also can't assume that just because someone figures out how to use the Excel Chart Wizard that the conclusions are valid.

Ol' No. 2
12-20-2005, 12:59 PM
Obviously the chart predicting the decline in AJ's batting average is logically flawed as individual human behavior and abilities do not follow a chart. There could be a variety of reasons for the differences in the statistical summary including who was pitching in the league at the time, where he hit in the batting order, things like that. Secondly I call BS on his conclusion. His projection does not take into consideration the INCREASES in AJ's batting average. Here are AJ's averages for the past 5 years (since he became a full-time player):

2001 .289
2002 .300
2003 .312
2004 .272
2005 .257

It is statistically fallacious to assume that the average will decline just because it has in 2 consecutive years, it's just as likely that it will go UP as it did in the previous years. That's why it is more appropriate to look at a player's lifetime average, in the case .287, and assume that the player will hit close to that figure. You cannot assume a decline anymore than you can assume an increase. You also can't assume that just because someone figures out how to use the Excel Chart Wizard that the conclusions are valid.You don't say?