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whitesoxfan1986
12-12-2005, 12:24 PM
I think that maybe KW thinks enough of Broadway to let Jon walk after this season. He will offer Jon arbitration next offseason, watch him walk away, pick up a draft pick, and draft another college pitcher to replace Broadway in the farm system,while Broadway becomes a starter in the majors. anyone agree?

bobowhite
12-12-2005, 12:38 PM
With the success the White Sox have enjoyed recently, both the obvious of winning the WS but also the less obvious of not really trading away many players who've amounted to more than a pitcher of spit, I'd have to give KW a little slack here. As long as he doesn't totally infuriate the team or fan-base, I'm pretty happy with the guy's work.

IlliniSox4Life
12-12-2005, 12:51 PM
If he puts up another 18 win campaign, I think he will definately not be with us. It would be very hard to afford him. It would be nice to be able to keep him around, but it would be very difficult.

MERPER
12-12-2005, 01:11 PM
I think that KW has earned the right to do whatever he feels necessary... his moves at the major league level have been brilliant and his ability to stockpile our farm system with talent has been overlooked....

That being said, I know KW has a plan with Garland.... if this team needs something at the trade deadline, Garland will be dangled as trade bait regardless of what kind of season he's having

Anything above 18 wins for Jon and KW knows he is gone, with a pitcher like Burnett (49-50 career) getting 11 mil per, Garland at 26 years old, can demand like 14 and the Sox won't match...

If not Broadway, keep your eye on Ray Liotta... he's supposed to be great as well and it would only be fitting to have Ray Liotta on the White Sox:D:

VASoxfan1
12-12-2005, 01:29 PM
Regardless of what Jon Garland is going to do this year I don't think he'll be around long term for the white sox. young free agent pitchers are worth a lot on the open market and garland and his agent know this hence why they turned down the 3 year offer. They'll be able to get that 8 mil plus another 4-6 mil a year and another two years easy next year.

and as much as i like garland I don't think the white sox need to pay him that to remain successful.

CHIsoxNation
12-12-2005, 01:30 PM
I haven't had a chance to watch Broadway yet but I wouldn't think he'd be ready by next year. So as far as Kenny having the idea of bringing up Broadway if Garland were to leave, I don't see that happening. I think Cotts would be a better option at this point in time then Broadway would be.

I agree with everyone that has said it would be hard to sign Garland if he gets more than 18 wins. He's young, eats up a lot of innings and hasn't shown any signs of injury. A lot of teams will be willing to dish out good money for that kind of ability.

Jurr
12-12-2005, 01:40 PM
Buy low sell high. It's the only tennant of Moneyball that I do agree with. He bought AJ and Dye low. AJ was a cancer...Dye was injury prone. He "sold" Rowand right after a championship season, when his numbers were down from the previous year yet he had that "prime time glow" about him.

If El Duque is healthy this season, I'd trade Garland's ass at the deadline for something GOOD. You're not keeping him beyond this year, and the value is huge right now for a kid like Garland. Otherwise, you have a one year rental. Granted, it may be good enough for another WS win, but who knows?

Why not trade him for a serviceable starter and a big bat?

Ol' No. 2
12-12-2005, 01:48 PM
Buy low sell high. It's the only tennant of Moneyball that I do agree with. He bought AJ and Dye low. AJ was a cancer...Dye was injury prone. He "sold" Rowand right after a championship season, when his numbers were down from the previous year yet he had that "prime time glow" about him.

If El Duque is healthy this season, I'd trade Garland's ass at the deadline for something GOOD. You're not keeping him beyond this year, and the value is huge right now for a kid like Garland. Otherwise, you have a one year rental. Granted, it may be good enough for another WS win, but who knows?

Why not trade him for a serviceable starter and a big bat?How much will Garland's value be at the trade deadline? The only teams that would give up much for 2-month rental are potential playoff teams. Do you want to help out a potential opponent?

CHIsoxNation
12-12-2005, 01:49 PM
Buy low sell high. It's the only tennant of Moneyball that I do agree with. He bought AJ and Dye low. AJ was a cancer...Dye was injury prone. He "sold" Rowand right after a championship season, when his numbers were down from the previous year yet he had that "prime time glow" about him.

If El Duque is healthy this season, I'd trade Garland's ass at the deadline for something GOOD. You're not keeping him beyond this year, and the value is huge right now for a kid like Garland. Otherwise, you have a one year rental. Granted, it may be good enough for another WS win, but who knows?

Why not trade him for a serviceable starter and a big bat?

If El Duque is healthy, I think this would be a good idea. There is really no telling which Garland is going to come out of spring training next year. He had a GREAT first half but went down hill second half. If he performs like that again then I would get rid of him by the deadline while his value is still high. I wouldn't consider that move though if you weren't 100% sure El Duque can tough it out the rest of the season.

Tekijawa
12-12-2005, 01:51 PM
Didn't Buehrle turn down an offer and take arbitration and pitch poorly and come back and take an offer for Less? These things don't always happen to benefit the players.

Exit_Only
12-12-2005, 01:52 PM
I think that maybe KW thinks enough of Broadway to let Jon walk after this season. He will offer Jon arbitration next offseason, watch him walk away, pick up a draft pick, and draft another college pitcher to replace Broadway in the farm system,while Broadway becomes a starter in the majors. anyone agree?

I think it's quite premature for KW to expect Broadway to come close to matching JG's dominance.

Remember how long we waited for Jon to have a season like 2005? It can take years for a pitcher to figure it all out. We don't even know if Broadway will even make the majors let alone pitch like Jon Garland.

34 Inch Stick
12-12-2005, 01:57 PM
Everybody assumes that Garland will be here for the right amount of money. I guess that is true. However, all money being equal, I think Garland would prefer pitching on the west coast. I have never gotten the feeling that he really enjoys pitching for the White Sox.

DumpJerry
12-12-2005, 01:58 PM
July 31, 2006: Jon Garland is traded to Oakland for Frank Thomas.

Exit_Only
12-12-2005, 02:06 PM
Everybody assumes that Garland will be here for the right amount of money. I guess that is true. However, all money being equal, I think Garland would prefer pitching on the west coast. I have never gotten the feeling that he really enjoys pitching for the White Sox.

I'm hoping his friendships with Buehrle and Ed Farmer will trump that.

Jjav829
12-12-2005, 02:11 PM
I think that maybe KW thinks enough of Broadway to let Jon walk after this season. He will offer Jon arbitration next offseason, watch him walk away, pick up a draft pick, and draft another college pitcher to replace Broadway in the farm system,while Broadway becomes a starter in the majors. anyone agree?
I don't know about that, but I'm guessing Kenny doesn't want to shell out big bucks to Garland until he sees Garland do it again this year.

Besides, I wouldn't be surprised if the pitching market comes back down a bit next offseason. There will be more good pitching available after 2006 than there was this offseason. Looking at the potential starters available next offseason, the list includes: Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, Jason Schmidt, Brad Radke, Kerry Wood, Mike Mussina, Kelvin Escobar, Kip Wells, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Andy Pettitte, Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Ted Lilly and Mark Redman. Some of those names seem better than others, but you never know who might have that Jon Garland type season in 2006. You might see a Kip Wells, Vicente Padilla or Ted Lilly have a big contract year. Of course some of those guys are getting older and might not seem like a good fit next year. But I do think it is possible that Kenny lets Garland pitch out the season, or even trades him now, with the idea of going after someone like Wolf or Davis who could be cheaper next offseason. Or Garland might find that he can't get as much next offseason as the pitchers are getting this offseason and come back for less.

Ol' No. 2
12-12-2005, 03:05 PM
Didn't Buehrle turn down an offer and take arbitration and pitch poorly and come back and take an offer for Less? These things don't always happen to benefit the players.Buehrle never went to arbitration.

Optipessimism
12-12-2005, 03:13 PM
I don't know about that, but I'm guessing Kenny doesn't want to shell out big bucks to Garland until he sees Garland do it again this year.

Besides, I wouldn't be surprised if the pitching market comes back down a bit next offseason. There will be more good pitching available after 2006 than there was this offseason. Looking at the potential starters available next offseason, the list includes: Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, Jason Schmidt, Brad Radke, Kerry Wood, Mike Mussina, Kelvin Escobar, Kip Wells, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Andy Pettitte, Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Ted Lilly and Mark Redman. Some of those names seem better than others, but you never know who might have that Jon Garland type season in 2006. You might see a Kip Wells, Vicente Padilla or Ted Lilly have a big contract year. Of course some of those guys are getting older and might not seem like a good fit next year. But I do think it is possible that Kenny lets Garland pitch out the season, or even trades him now, with the idea of going after someone like Wolf or Davis who could be cheaper next offseason. Or Garland might find that he can't get as much next offseason as the pitchers are getting this offseason and come back for less.

I'll take Mark Mulder instead. After we repeat and break all Sox attendance records ever, JR gives us more money to resign Contreras, extend Buehrle, and sign Mulder. Our rotation of Contreras-Buehrle-Garcia-Mulder-McCarthy will send us deep into the playoffs again and again, and the BoSox and Yanks don't see the WS until at least 2009.

As for Garland, I think that if KW doesn't trade him for another starter this offseason he should trade him at the deadline if he feels the need to trade him at all. As someone mentioned, the only teams that would want him would be contenders and we would be helping them out, but they'd be helping us out too. I doubt KW would trade him if the return doesn't immediately help out the Major League team. He should be a type A FA anyway, so we will at least be compensated with picks.

whitesoxfan1986
12-12-2005, 03:15 PM
How much will Garland's value be at the trade deadline? The only teams that would give up much for 2-month rental are potential playoff teams. Do you want to help out a potential opponent?

You trade him to an NL team on the bubble, who is in the race ONLY for the wild card, and likely isn't going to make it, and you trade him for a bat and pitching prospects.

Hitmen77
12-12-2005, 03:18 PM
Buy low sell high. It's the only tennant of Moneyball that I do agree with. He bought AJ and Dye low. AJ was a cancer...Dye was injury prone. He "sold" Rowand right after a championship season, when his numbers were down from the previous year yet he had that "prime time glow" about him.

If El Duque is healthy this season, I'd trade Garland's ass at the deadline for something GOOD. You're not keeping him beyond this year, and the value is huge right now for a kid like Garland. Otherwise, you have a one year rental. Granted, it may be good enough for another WS win, but who knows?

Why not trade him for a serviceable starter and a big bat?

If Garland is doing well and the Sox are in playoff contention in July, there is no way they are going to trade him. Can you say White Flag II???

Also, who is going to give up a serviceable starter and a big bat for a 2-month rental? Only a team in the playoff hunt would trade for Garland and I doubt such a team would give up a starting pitcher and big bat.

soxfanreggie
12-12-2005, 03:29 PM
I don't think we should ever let MB go to arbitration. I want to see him locked up. He puts the H in horse and will be going 200+ innings and likely 15 wins or more a year for a while. He has the stuff and doesn't have to rely on a power fastball to get things done.

Ol' No. 2
12-12-2005, 03:30 PM
You trade him to an NL team on the bubble, who is in the race ONLY for the wild card, and likely isn't going to make it, and you trade him for a bat and pitching prospects.There's one teensey-weensey problem with that approach. How many NL teams do you expect there will be who are on the bubble, who are in the race ONLY for the wild card AND who need a starting pitcher AND have something the Sox want? You've limited the pool of potential partners to one or at most two teams. That's not a good way to get value in return.

vafan
12-12-2005, 03:37 PM
Is there really such universal disregard of Jon Garland among Sox fans? I find this appalling. The guy only won more games than any starter last year and pitched very well in the postseason.

As I said on a different post, I think among Garland, Buehrle and Garcia, that Jon Garland will win the most games going forward from this point, with Buehrle a close second and Garcia third.

If I were KW, I would try harder to strike a 3-year deal with Garland before he goes to arbitration this year. Remember, Garland still has the uncertainty whether he will repeat his stellar year, which is worth some discount on his services.

The other thing is you have to look at this as a whole. Who's to say that Mark Buehrle might not just be waiting for his freedom to move on? Or Jose Contreras? Or both?

By not trying harder to ink Jon, the Sox could end up with no rotation very soon instead of the AL's best one.

caulfield12
12-12-2005, 03:37 PM
Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, Jason Schmidt, Brad Radke, Kerry Wood, Mike Mussina, Kelvin Escobar, Kip Wells, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Andy Pettitte, Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Ted Lilly and Mark Redman


There is no way we can say right now that Broadway is the heir-apparent. He looks like he could be...but we also have Honel, Malone, Haeger, Liotta, Lumsden,Tracey, etc. Any of them could potentially emerge next season...or they could all fall flat on their faces while Gio and Haigwood pitch for the Phillies.

If you had to prioritize that list of pitchers....

1) Mulder
2) Zito

Those are the only sure-fire ace starters, and Zito has struggled on and off the last two seasons, compared to previous years.

Schmidt has too many injuries and is too old for the Sox to gamble with a 3-4 year deal. Same thing with Mussina. I would not touch Kerry Wood with a ten-foot pole.

I guess Pettitte would be my third pick, although he too has suffered some injuries since joining Houston.

Escobar, probably fourth...although I would like to see him starting successfully again before gambling on a signing for 2-3 years.

Wells, Padilla, Eaton, Wolf, Lilly and Redman would all be 4-5 type starters...my preference would be to keep Contreras and sign the best one of these guys that has the potential to have another Loaiza or Contreras type break-out season without costing us $10 million plus, like JG would.

I know Wolf has had some injuries...not sure if Kip would even want to come back...Padilla seems to be more talent than results over his career.

whitesoxfan1986
12-12-2005, 03:44 PM
I think it's quite premature for KW to expect Broadway to come close to matching JG's dominance.

Remember how long we waited for Jon to have a season like 2005? It can take years for a pitcher to figure it all out. We don't even know if Broadway will even make the majors let alone pitch like Jon Garland.

I am just saying that Broadway will get his shot in the majors in 2007, barring injury or craptastic performance in AA ball. He probably won't be anywhere close to Garland's 2005 numbers but I think that this year is gonna be our last shot to win the WS for a couple of years. Contreras and Garland will be gone after next season, so our rotation will look like this in 07: Buehrle, Garcia, McCarthy, Broadway, Other current minor league pitcher(probably Lumsden or Liotta) and Garcia and Buehrle's contracts are up after 07 so Garcia won't be back after that. In 07 it's gonna be homegrown talent time.

Flight #24
12-12-2005, 03:56 PM
my preference would be to keep Contreras and sign the best one of these guys that has the potential to have another Loaiza or Contreras type break-out season without costing us $10 million plus, like JG would.



IMO one thing that works WAY in Kenny's favor is that IIRC, Contreras is going to be arb-eligible. He's also of undetermined age, just moved his family here, and is extremely comfortable with the Sox & Ozzie. So he may be able to resign him either cheaper or shorter than Garland, or at worst, go year to year for a couple of years on 1-year/arb deals.

If McCarthy shows that he's a solid #3 or starter, then you basically keep Jose on a 1-yr deal as long as you have a contending team (i.e. through at least '07) and go Buehrle-Contreras-Garcia-McCarthy and find a serviceable #5.

If one of Contreras/McCarthy don't look like they're going to be top-4 caliber, then you have to resign Garland.

caulfield12
12-12-2005, 04:08 PM
IMO one thing that works WAY in Kenny's favor is that IIRC, Contreras is going to be arb-eligible. He's also of undetermined age, just moved his family here, and is extremely comfortable with the Sox & Ozzie. So he may be able to resign him either cheaper or shorter than Garland, or at worst, go year to year for a couple of years on 1-year/arb deals.

If McCarthy shows that he's a solid #3 or starter, then you basically keep Jose on a 1-yr deal as long as you have a contending team (i.e. through at least '07) and go Buehrle-Contreras-Garcia-McCarthy and find a serviceable #5.

If one of Contreras/McCarthy don't look like they're going to be top-4 caliber, then you have to resign Garland.

Scott Podsednik (2), Jose Contreras (1), Timo Perez (3), Joe Crede (2), Luis Vizcaino (3), Willie Harris (2), Neal Cotts (1), Ross Gload (1)

These are the players that will be eligible for arbitration next off-season.

This is something that has not been written about or discussed much, as everyone assumed Jose would be gone...forgetting his MLB service time.

I think JG has been positioned all along as the player he (KW) anticipated losing to the FA market after 2006. That still leaves a formidable rotation in place for 2007. After that, all bets are off with almost the entire pitching staff...but we should be WS-competitive for these next two seasons at least.

Jurr
12-12-2005, 06:42 PM
If Garland is doing well and the Sox are in playoff contention in July, there is no way they are going to trade him. Can you say White Flag II???

Also, who is going to give up a serviceable starter and a big bat for a 2-month rental? Only a team in the playoff hunt would trade for Garland and I doubt such a team would give up a starting pitcher and big bat.
Ummmm.....we almost did for A.J. Burnett.

Ol' No. 2
12-12-2005, 07:05 PM
IMO one thing that works WAY in Kenny's favor is that IIRC, Contreras is going to be arb-eligible. He's also of undetermined age, just moved his family here, and is extremely comfortable with the Sox & Ozzie. So he may be able to resign him either cheaper or shorter than Garland, or at worst, go year to year for a couple of years on 1-year/arb deals.

If McCarthy shows that he's a solid #3 or starter, then you basically keep Jose on a 1-yr deal as long as you have a contending team (i.e. through at least '07) and go Buehrle-Contreras-Garcia-McCarthy and find a serviceable #5.

If one of Contreras/McCarthy don't look like they're going to be top-4 caliber, then you have to resign Garland.Contreras will be a FA after 2006. Yes, I know he doesn't have the requisite 6 years of service time. But for some reason that I haven't been able to figure out, players that come in from international leagues and bypass the draft don't have to wait 6 years. I guess it's just an exception to the rule.

Daver
12-12-2005, 07:28 PM
Contreras will be a FA after 2006. Yes, I know he doesn't have the requisite 6 years of service time. But for some reason that I haven't been able to figure out, players that come in from international leagues and bypass the draft don't have to wait 6 years. I guess it's just an exception to the rule.

They sign Major League contracts, as a Major League FA's, which bypasses the service time from the CBA.

Ol' No. 2
12-12-2005, 07:44 PM
They sign Major League contracts, as a Major League FA's, which bypasses the service time from the CBA.So once FA-eligible, always FA-eligible? Makes sense, I guess.

Hitmen77
12-12-2005, 08:08 PM
Ummmm.....we almost did for A.J. Burnett.

We almost traded Jon Garland for AJ Burnett?

Fake Chet Lemon
12-12-2005, 09:31 PM
I don't know about that, but I'm guessing Kenny doesn't want to shell out big bucks to Garland until he sees Garland do it again this year.


That plan worked great on Konerko this year.

edit: Darn, I wasted #1,000 on this comment!!!

Flight #24
12-12-2005, 11:01 PM
They sign Major League contracts, as a Major League FA's, which bypasses the service time from the CBA.

OK, then I'd guess whoever pitches to 2005 form between Contreras & Garland gets an extension. Contreras moreso because I imagine he'll come cheaper/shorter term given age and personal situation.

The only reason why I wouldn't see them signing one of them is if they deal one for a younger/cheaper pitcher (seems unlikely given that the Sox would be contending), or if for some reason, KW just doesn't see himself being able to afford one of them AND re-up with Buehrle/Garcia.

Jerome
12-12-2005, 11:15 PM
If Tejada is really availiable (which i doubt), I would like perhaps Garland, Uribe, and one of our OF prospects over to Baltimore. But that is not likely going to happen.

I'm in favor of "selling high" on Garland. The market for pitching is insane. However, the guy will give you 200 solid innings per year, and that is not something I feel comfortable relying on El Duque for. I would be just as happy as seeing Jon have great FA year in 2006, turing down another KW contract extension to stay with a winner, getting way too much money from a bad team, and giving the Sox two more first round draft picks.

If we could trade Garland to another team and get what Oakland got in return for Mulder (no thank you on the Hudson deal:(: ), a solid starter to replace him plus additional prospects, then I would be in favor. But ultimately, pitching and pitching depth won the Sox a world series in 2005, why would we take that away in 06?

lostletters
12-13-2005, 12:42 AM
Remember Mulder is a long time White Sox fan. Which is hard to believe considering how much the sox struggled with him. Plus he is a VAMPIRE (he has a low ERA at night and plenty of wins). Just imagine Buerhle during the day and Mulder at night. Gives me chills.


Kenny might be thinking if he cannot sign Garland during the season to a long term deal, he makes a one for one proposal with the Cards and locks in Mulder for a three year deal. Plus Mulder is pretty young as well, so it is not like you are getting an aging pitcher. Additionally, he may be more willing to stick around, since this is his home town.

Also I think JC is more likely to stay then Garland. There is something to be said about feeling like you are home with a team, which I think JC does with the White Sox, not sure the same could be said with Garland. Something keeps telling me he will be with the Padres or Dodgers.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-13-2005, 12:49 AM
Here are all the possible scenarios I can think of;

1) If Garland has a season comparable to last season AND the White Sox are not in the playoff picture by the deadline -
Trade him to a contender who is willing to overpay with top prospects.

2) If Garland has a season comparable to last season AND the White Sox are in the playoff picture by the deadline -
Keep him and wait until the offseason to deal with him.

3) If Garland has a bad season AND/OR is injured for a big chunk of the season -
Trade him if you can get a lot for him whether you are in contention or not. Injuries won't affect a young player's value. Don't agree? Look at AJ Burnett this offseason and Carl Pavano last offseason.

4) If Garland has a bad season AND is healthy all year long -
Keep him and try to re-sign him during the season for as cheap as possible. 3 years $24 mill? Do it.

wassagstdu
12-13-2005, 11:56 AM
If Tejada is really availiable (which i doubt), I would like perhaps Garland, Uribe, and one of our OF prospects over to Baltimore. But that is not likely going to happen.

That would be insanity, the worst trade in Sox history.

.

GoSox2K3
12-13-2005, 12:12 PM
Ummmm.....we almost did for A.J. Burnett.

Ummm....Almost trading McCarthy for AJ Burnett and Lowell last July is NOT the same as us trading away JG for a "serviceable" starter and a bat this coming July.

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=791063&highlight=Nightengale#post791063

Assuming JG repeats his '05 success next year, the only teams interested in a 2-month rental like him will be another contender. Such a team is not going to give us a starter and a big bat for him. So, your trade suggestion is not realistic and is not comparable to what we almost did last July.

If the Sox are in contention next year, the Sox will only make a trade if it improves our team for the '06 playoff run. I can't imagine any trade involving JG (that another contending team will realistically accept) will make our team better.

redisurprise
12-13-2005, 12:34 PM
Garland for Vazquez rumor

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5163266 (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5163266)

nevr say dye sox
12-13-2005, 01:09 PM
I would guess the Garland/ Vazquez deal is close to being done. Everyone is reporting the the Sox are in hot pursuit of Vazquez. KW has been trying to get this guy the last two years. I would venture t guess this deal is done in principal and the only question left to remain is who gets the money sent from the Yanks!

kitekrazy
12-13-2005, 10:23 PM
Someone needs to slap some of these GMs for over paying for average pitching.

ChiSoxLifer
12-13-2005, 10:25 PM
Please JR! Just this time, tighten the salary reigns!