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TheOldRoman
11-29-2005, 02:17 AM
Let me preface this by saying the following: If the Sox can resign Konerko for a reasonable price, they should do it.

We have talked about Giles for a while on this board. He is from California, and has said in the past that he wants to play close to home. Apparently that is his preference, but his primary goal is to go to a contender.
Quote taken from NJ Star-Ledger (http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/113324718996070.xml&coll=1)

Brian Giles, whom the Yankees targeted for center field, has decided not to return to his hometown San Diego Padres but may be leaning toward Toronto if he does not get an attractive offer from the other two southern California teams (Angels, Dodgers). A friend of Giles said Giles wants at least a three-year deal with a contender. Joe Bick, Giles' agent, said yesterday Giles' decision is "in progress" and "we haven't put any deadline on anything." Bick last spoke to Cashman on Saturday.
First of all, we are a lot closer to the west coast than Toronto. Seconly, we have a slightly warmer climate. Most importantly, we are the reigning champions, while Toronto can only hope to contend. If Giles would sign with the Blue Jays, he would almost certainly sign here. Giles wants to win a championship, and no other team will give him the change the White Sox will.

The next important piece of info is that Giles won't return to the Padres. He made an offer of 3 years/ $30million, but they inexplicably turned it down. Whether or not he was giving the Pads a "hometown discount", 3/$30 is likely close to what he is looking for. $10 mil a year is less than we would pay Konerko, and it would possibly allow us to bring in a lefty reliever. Giles would be 37 at the end of a three year deal. It is hardly a stretch to say he will still be productive at age 37, especially considering he has remained pretty healthy his whole career.

I believe that Brian Giles would actually be better for the team than Konerko. He gives us more versatility - can play RF,CF,LF,DH. He has a huge bat, gets on base at a monster clip, and is lefthanded. Ultimately, signing Giles would allow us to bring Frank back. Thome could play 1B and Giles CF. IF Frank is healthy, he is still a monster. That would be an unbelievable 3-4-5. Giles could then move to RF in 07 if Dye is not brought back, and Anderson/Young can take over CF.

That being said, I believe the Sox should lock up Konerko if they can because we have no idea whether or not Giles will come here. Also, there will be several teams going after Giles, where as only 2 or three are pursuing Konerko. We need one of the two next year. I am merely saying, Giles can apparently be had if Konerko signs elsewhere.

Banix12
11-29-2005, 03:35 AM
Great points. I do like Giles a lot and I think he could make the sox better next season. I'm just not really sure it makes the sox better the next two years.

My biggest fear in bringing Giles here is that 3 year contract and while I think he very well could stay healthy for all three years certainly some production decline should be reasonably expected in that third year. But even he stays healthy the idea of paying just under $20 million dollars a year for two aging lefthanded sluggers in Thome and Giles doesn't appeal to me, especially in that 3rd year when they are going to be 38-37 respectively. That's about 1/5th of a normal sox payroll devoted to guys who would have to be considered at least a moderate injury risk if only due to age.

I'll go with your preface and say the first option is to sign Konerko, especially at a reasonable price. But in my case it mostly because I think it is a smarter move for the future. This could very well be option #2.

Also, this is just my opinion and I know a bunch of you will jump down my throat for it, but even if signing Giles gives the sox the option of signing Frank I think the sox should pass on that option. His bat speed is fading, his mobility is mostly gone, and all he has left of his once amazing abilities is the longball. I think the few million he would make is better spent elsewhere. I hope he just retires but if he wants to keep going it's his perrogative.

caulfield12
11-29-2005, 07:32 AM
Let me preface this by saying the following: If the Sox can resign Konerko for a reasonable price, they should do it.

We have talked about Giles for a while on this board. He is from California, and has said in the past that he wants to play close to home. Apparently that is his preference, but his primary goal is to go to a contender.
Quote taken from NJ Star-Ledger (http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/113324718996070.xml&coll=1)


First of all, we are a lot closer to the west coast than Toronto. Seconly, we have a slightly warmer climate. Most importantly, we are the reigning champions, while Toronto can only hope to contend. If Giles would sign with the Blue Jays, he would almost certainly sign here. Giles wants to win a championship, and no other team will give him the change the White Sox will.

The next important piece of info is that Giles won't return to the Padres. He made an offer of 3 years/ $30million, but they inexplicably turned it down. Whether or not he was giving the Pads a "hometown discount", 3/$30 is likely close to what he is looking for. $10 mil a year is less than we would pay Konerko, and it would possibly allow us to bring in a lefty reliever. Giles would be 37 at the end of a three year deal. It is hardly a stretch to say he will still be productive at age 37, especially considering he has remained pretty healthy his whole career.

I believe that Brian Giles would actually be better for the team than Konerko. He gives us more versatility - can play RF,CF,LF,DH. He has a huge bat, gets on base at a monster clip, and is lefthanded. Ultimately, signing Giles would allow us to bring Frank back. Thome could play 1B and Giles CF. IF Frank is healthy, he is still a monster. That would be an unbelievable 3-4-5. Giles could then move to RF in 07 if Dye is not brought back, and Anderson/Young can take over CF.

That being said, I believe the Sox should lock up Konerko if they can because we have no idea whether or not Giles will come here. Also, there will be several teams going after Giles, where as only 2 or three are pursuing Konerko. We need one of the two next year. I am merely saying, Giles can apparently be had if Konerko signs elsewhere.

Itīs very dangerous to rely on two 35 year olds and a 37 year old like you are doing.

Thome and Giles would both be 37 at the end of their contracts.

Weīre trying to get younger and faster, not become the oldest team in the majors.

Besides, I thought Giles was only interested in playing for NL teams, because of his familiarity with that league.

I donīt see a Giles signing as the solution, because heīs no longer a very good centerfielder and he would block one of our younger and more affordable younger players with his long-term contract. Of course, thereīs no way Owens, Anderson, Young and Sweeney can play in the same outfield...or even Borchard-Gload for that matter...

I think the money will be reserved for Thomas-Konerko at DH-1B and keeping the starting pitching intact, with the obvious possibility of a move in mid-season next year, taking on additional salary for only one-half year, as a typical KW adjustment.

The Yankees wanted to sign Giles to play RF, with Sheffield leaving.

We might as well sign Reggie Sanders for one season, and put Pods in CF with Anderson-Owens also rotating in as the fourth OF...or possibly obtaining Winn or Pierre for just one season for CF.

You canīt put 25-30% of your payroll into three 35 plus players. Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets or Dodgers.

Tragg
11-29-2005, 07:36 AM
Is there any evidence that the Sox are interested in Giles? That's the question, in my mind.

ESPN reported this morning that the LA times reported this morning that the Konerko offer is $5/$60. Surely we're willing to do at least that, unless that 5 part is just a no-go.

TheOldRoman
11-29-2005, 12:26 PM
Besides, I thought Giles was only interested in playing for NL teams, because of his familiarity with that league.

The Yankees wanted to sign Giles to play RF, with Sheffield leaving.

Did you even read the first post? He is leaning towards signing with the Blue Jays. They are not in the NL.
The Yankees were looking at Giles to play CF. They were looking at Furcal to move him to CF, also. Apparently, Sheffield is coming back.

maurice
11-29-2005, 01:07 PM
If KW can sign Giles for 3 years at $10 mil/year, he should jump all over it.
Passing on Giles to give Konerko a bigger, longer deal would be a mistake.

nodiggity59
11-29-2005, 01:13 PM
If KW can sign Giles for 3 years at $10 mil/year, he should jump all over it.
Passing on Giles to give Konerko a bigger, longer deal would be a mistake.

Just to be sure, you're okay with having our main two power guys be over 33 years old? To me that's a huge risk. I don't see how PK could not have an OPS of .900 for the next 3 seasons. I could easily see Giles losing it in 2007 if not earlier. Not to mention Thome. I could see Giles over PK, or Thome over PK, but Thome and Giles is just asking for trouble IMO.

maurice
11-29-2005, 01:32 PM
Just to be sure, you're okay with having our main two power guys be over 33 years old? To me that's a huge risk.

Well, Thome definitely is a risk. It wasn't my idea, but it's already been done. The good news is that his deal is relatively short and small.

Nothing in Giles' history indicates that he's a huge risk in 2006. In fact, Konerko's a bigger risk, since he can always pull a 2003. Plus, if Giles or Thome bust, you'd only be on the hook for 3 years. If Konerko goes bust, you'd be on the hook for more money AND more years.

I don't see how PK could not have an OPS of .900 for the next 3 seasons.

How about the fact that he's only ever had a .900+ OPS one time? If Konerko moves to a less hitter friendly home park, the chances of him posting a .900 OPS again are extremely slim.

The Deacon
11-29-2005, 01:34 PM
Is there any evidence that the Sox are interested in Giles? That's the question, in my mind.

ESPN reported this morning that the LA times reported this morning that the Konerko offer is $5/$60. Surely we're willing to do at least that, unless that 5 part is just a no-go.

IMO there is no evidence we are pursuing Giles. Its all wishfull thinking. I would love Giles but this is a pipe dream. He is going to command Konerko money anyway.

White Sox Randy
11-29-2005, 01:52 PM
The White Sox would be stupid to give Konerko 12-13 mil. a year for 4-5 years when they would be much better off with Giles(better offensively and defensively than Konerko) and Nomar for less money combined.

Nomar is a one year deal plus an option. He can be your DH and backup to Crede...even emergency SS. He increases the team speed by being faster than Konerko (isn't everyone).

Giles for 3 years at 8 mil. per is a bargain - he plays left and Pods plays center.

The Sox would be far better off this way.

Randar68
11-29-2005, 01:53 PM
Giles for 3 years at 8 mil. per is a bargain - he plays left and Pods plays center.

Toronto has reportedly offerred 5 years at 55 million. Even if that is slightly exaggerated, it's goig to cost at least 4/40 to get him, IMO.

nodiggity59
11-29-2005, 01:54 PM
Well, Thome definitely is a risk. It wasn't my idea, but it's already been done. The good news is that his deal is relatively short and small.

Nothing in Giles' history indicates that he's a huge risk in 2006. In fact, Konerko's a bigger risk, since he can always pull a 2003. Plus, if Giles or Thome bust, you'd only be on the hook for 3 years. If Konerko goes bust, you'd be on the hook for more money AND more years.



How about the fact that he's only ever had a .900+ OPS one time? If Konerko moves to a less hitter friendly home park, the chances of him posting a .900 OPS again are extremely slim.

I didn't say .900+, I said 900. Over the last 2 seasons, he's averaged that.

Whether it was your idea or not, we have Thome, so that's already an age risk. Giles would be another, though not as much of one. In terms of PK pulling an 03, Giles' risk of breaking down is just as likely as PK falling off the map, IMO. He may not have a history of injury but guys his age certainly do (look at Thome in 05.....no one saw that coming after his consistency for so long). Also, decline phase tendencies start to become an issue. PK on the other hand has a fair chance to have his career year in the next 2 seasons. If he's signed for 5 years, he'll be the same age at the end of the deal as Giles is NOW!

If PK plays for the Sox, he plays at USCF. It doesn't matter what he would do if he were hypothetically moved to another park. We know he can perform here and that's what counts.

Furthermore, signing Giles contributes to our growing surplus in the OF and inhibits our ability to develop our younger players. He's likely to receive just as much as PK in $ over less years for maybe .050 OPS difference at the most and probably less if he has issues due to getting older. Plus, PK is the leader of the team and was totally clutch in the post season.

The Deacon
11-29-2005, 01:56 PM
The White Sox would be stupid to give Konerko 12-13 mil. a year for 4-5 years when they would be much better off with Giles(better offensively and defensively than Konerko) and Nomar for less money combined.

Nomar is a one year deal plus an option. He can be your DH and backup to Crede...even emergency SS. He increases the team speed by being faster than Konerko (isn't everyone).

Giles for 3 years at 8 mil. per is a bargain - he plays left and Pods plays center.

The Sox would be far better off this way.

Giles is going to go for more than 8 million/year. The SOX would probably be better off but Giles is going to be getting 12-13 million and the SOX usually don't enter bidding wars for free agents.

maurice
11-29-2005, 02:36 PM
I didn't say .900+, I said 900. Over the last 2 seasons, he's averaged that.

While I appreciate your talent for manipulating data and your fixation on the last 2 seasons to the exclusion of all other relevant data, the fact remains that he's been under .900 every single year except for one.

In terms of PK pulling an 03, Giles' risk of breaking down is just as likely as PK falling off the map, IMO.

Your opinion lacks supporting evidence. Konerko periodically sucks for no apparent reason, most spectacularly in 2003 but also in the first two months of this season. He also has a hip condition, and nobody knows how or whether that will affect the remainder of his career. A long-term, big-money deal for Konerko is a larger risk than Giles and probably even Thome.

Giles has never "broken down." He's good for 600+ PA every year, and usually posts a .900+ OPS and .400+ OBP. Age will eventually take it's toll, but there's no indication that it will be any time soon. His 2005 numbers were better than his 2004 numbers. The opportunity to DH in the AL should extend his career.

Thome's elbow injury was a surprise, but his back injury was not. He's a big guy with an extremely violent swing. Fortunately, we have him on a relatively small and short deal -- significantly shorter and cheaper than $13 mil/year for 5 years.

Finally, a healthy Giles or Thome is a better hitter than a healthy Konerko. The stats (all of them, not just the ones you cherry-pick) speak for themselves. Konerko's career years are similar to Giles' average years.

PK on the other hand has a fair chance to have his career year in the next 2 seasons.

That depends on how you define "fair chance." He already had career years in 2004 and 2005, and that probably had more to do with a new roof than better ABs.

If PK plays for the Sox, he plays at USCF. It doesn't matter what he would do if he were hypothetically moved to another park.

It does matter if you're considering swapping Giles for Konerko. Assuming for the sake of argument that they were equivalent hitters in 2005, Giles would move from an extreme pitchers park to an extreme hitters park, while Konerko likely would move to a less HR friendly park. In other words, Giles likely would be more productive in 2006 for less money.

Furthermore, signing Giles contributes to our growing surplus in the OF and inhibits our ability to develop our younger players.

No, Giles increases flexibilty, because your oldest or worst defensive OF always can be moved to 1B or DH. OTOH, Thome and Konerko are strictly 1B/DHs.

Plus, PK is the leader of the team and was totally clutch in the post season.

Blum is the leader of Group 4 and was totally clutch in the post season. We should have paid him $12 mil / year to DH.
:rolleyes:

nodiggity59
11-29-2005, 04:51 PM
Originally Posted by maurice:

the fact remains that he's been under .900 every single year except for one.

A very limited and "tunnel vision view". PK is the same player now he has been since 01, which is an .850 OPS guy w/ the upper deck still in place and a .900 OPS guy after the rennovations. Look at his total extra base hits since 01: 67, 57, 37, 63, 64. Other than 03, about the same (around the 63 avg). Other than 03 he has been the same guy since the rennovations - and that means a .900 OPS guy. It is extremely reasonable to expect that he will continue to produce the same # of extra base hits and the same OPS.


Konerko periodically sucks for no apparent reason, most spectacularly in 2003 but also in the first two months of this season.

Define "sucks". His highest RBI month was May and May+April was his highest two month RBI total. His 13 HR over the period constitute his 2nd highest for a 2 month period - in cold weather - though his doubles totals were his lowest. His AVG and OBP were his lowest for the season, but I think the the power numbers were at least above his average for the year. So April/May was definitely his worst time period this season, but he was not devoid of merit. I wouldn't even call earlier this year a slump. I'd just call it his worst two months of the year. I guarantee you power hitters of all kinds have irregularities just like, if not more variant, than this.

And if you honestly think PK will have another 03, then I don't know what to say. This is unlikely, given his history, to say the least.



Thome's elbow injury was a surprise, but his back injury was not. He's a big guy with an extremely violent swing.

I don't understand this argument. The "surprise I'm old" elbow injury was more than enough to sideline him. The back injury was a footnote because he had to have surgery anyways. Bottom line is you want our team to demand 550s ABs apiece from a 34 and a 35 year old. At Giles' age, he's just as likely to sustain a serious injury as all the other players who get to be that age. It's just not likely he'll hold up over 3-4 years.

That depends on how you define "fair chance." He already had career years in 2004 and 2005, and that probably had more to do with a new roof than better ABs.

Konerko has yet to have a career year, as his extra base hit totals indicate. His #s have merely been artificially inflated. It is so unreasonable to expect a guy who's posted an .850 OPS 4 of the last 5 years to actually produce a .900-.950 one (which would be .950 to 1.000 at the new Cell) between the ages of 29 to 32? No. It happens all the time.

Giles increases flexibilty, because your oldest or worst defensive OF always can be moved to 1B

I didn't realize you don't care about defense. I'd like to see Dye or Giles or even Thome make some of the picks PK does, especially on close plays with runners on 3rd base. We're a pitching and defense team first and foremost and playing guys out of position is not something you always do, it's something you always consider as a last possible resort.


Finally, a healthy Giles or Thome is a better hitter than a healthy Konerko.

I never said they weren't. But I'd bet the 05 season that BOTH of them will not put up better #s than PK for the next 3 seasons. They are human and WILL decline at some point. With PK, the risk is less. Because of his age, you have greater certainty as to his performance and there is potential for more. We'll see if KW agrees with me.

maurice
11-30-2005, 04:03 PM
This is all academic at this point, but what the heck . . .

the fact remains that he's been under .900 every single year except for one.
A very limited and "tunnel vision view".

This is the opposite of the truth. I'm looking at every single year. You're looking at the average of the past 2 seasons.

Look at his total extra base hits since 01

It seems that you've already realized this, but I'll nontheless note that these data indicate that the new roof turned a bunch of his home 2B into home HR. In other words, he didn't really improve as a hitter at all between 2001 and 2005. He's still essentially the same good-but-not-great hitter he was in 2001. There's no upward trend, as some have suggested. For this reason, over the next 5 years (after the age of 29), his numbers probably will stay at the same good-but-not-great level or decline, not improve.

Konerko periodically sucks for no apparent reason, most spectacularly in 2003 but also in the first two months of this season.
Define "sucks". His highest RBI month was May and May+April was his highest two month RBI total. His 13 HR over the period constitute his 2nd highest for a 2 month period

There is absolutely no question that Konerko sucked for the first 2 months of this season, when he hit just above .220. That's not just bad. That's Timo-Perez-bad. "Highest RBI month" doesn't mean much when your RBI total for the year is disappointing. As detailed on this site at the time, his AVE w/ RiSP during that period was sickeningly low. He just had an absurd number of RBI opportunities (and choked about 80% of the time). As I've explained 1,000 times on these boards, HR total in isolation is meaningless. "Cold weather" also is meaningless, since other players did fine in the same weather and since future Aprils and Mays are not likely to be 80 degrees and sunny.

I guarantee you power hitters of all kinds have irregularities just like, if not more variant, than this.

We've been through the data before, using Delgado's 2005 splits as a point of reference. True superstar hitters rarely hit .220 for a couple of months and very very rarely have seasons like Konerko's 2003 for no apparent reason (e.g., injury). When they have a hard time making contact, they make up for it with walks and HR. When they're having a hard time driving the ball, they make up for it with an extremely high AVE. Konerko is unusually slump-prone. In fact, if he suddenly found a way to go an entire season without slumping, he'd be a .300+ AVE, 1.000 OPS superstar. (Then again, if Crede and Uribe went an entire season without slumping, they'd be All Stars; and if my aunt had a . . . well, that's enough of that.)

And if you honestly think PK will have another 03, then I don't know what to say. This is unlikely, given his history, to say the least.

Again, there's no data to support your conclusion. "His history" shows that he's done it once in the last three years. He may do it again in the next five years. Nobody knows how likely it is, but it's obviously possible.

The "surprise I'm old" elbow injury was more than enough to sideline him.

I don't know what caused the elbow injury, but Tommy John surgery does not result from old age.

At Giles' age, he's just as likely to sustain a serious injury as all the other players who get to be that age.

Well, it's certainly less likely than an equally old player with a past injury history or a younger player with a chronic health problem. Nobody can predict the future. That applies equally to Konerko's hip, which I referenced earlier. From today's Trib:
Complicating matters for the Sox was a report in Tuesday's editions of the Baltimore Sun that raised concerns about Konerko's long-term health. According to the report, one unnamed Sox official was leery of extending an offer to Konerko, 29, to a fifth year because of an arthritic hip condition.

Konerko has yet to have a career year, as his extra base hit totals indicate. His #s have merely been artificially inflated. It is so unreasonable to expect a guy who's posted an .850 OPS 4 of the last 5 years to actually produce a .900-.950 one (which would be .950 to 1.000 at the new Cell) between the ages of 29 to 32?

First, I'm glad to see you recognize that he hasn't really improved. Second, there is no reason to believe that a player who hasn't improved during his late 20s would suddenly and remarkably improve (adding 100 points to his OPS) after the age of 29. Of course it could happen, and I hope it does . . . but it's fantstically "unreasonable to expect" it to happen.

I didn't realize you don't care about defense.

I didn't realize that you were unfamiliar with the 100 or so threads establishing that converting a good but old OF into a 1B happens all the time without sacrificing defense, and that Konerko himself was moved to 1B at the pro level. Thome is at least as good as Konerko defensively right now.

I'd bet the 05 season that BOTH of them will not put up better #s than PK for the next 3 seasons.

The only way to determine this is to wait 3 years and find out. The good news is that, if you lose, you won't have to give up the '05 season. Championships are forever.
:gulp:

White Sox Randy
12-01-2005, 08:46 AM
Like I said, we could have had Giles AND Nomar for Konerko money. But, I'm happy anyway....GO SOX !