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View Full Version : Tailgunner Joe forecasting El Duque deal


caulfield12
11-13-2005, 10:05 AM
http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/131sd1.htm

No that it would be a surprise to anyone in the world.

No word of Cotts going into the rotation...but he would be the first option if El Duque was gone and we suffered an injury.

If we do trade El Duque, we need to find a serviceable MLB-experience starter in his 30s making $1.0 million or so and stick him in AAA or the bullpen, like the insurance policy KW had with Ben Davis. It is incredibly more expensive to go out and get pitching when everyone knows you need it.

OTOH, someone like Haigwood, Tracey, Honel, Malone, Gio, Broadway, etc. MIGHT be able to make the jump, but I would not want to see two rookies, for all intents and purposes, in the pen.

It would take Cotts 4-6 weeks to shift over to starting if he did it in the middle of the season, and it would seriously damage the pen, especially if we deal Marte and do not replace the 2nd lefty on the FA or trade market.

jabrch
11-13-2005, 10:16 AM
Hey buddy - What's the Score?


COWLEY = ASSHAT

mike squires
11-13-2005, 10:17 AM
Wouldn't McCarthy be the next one in line? That is a no brainer.

caulfield12
11-13-2005, 10:19 AM
Wouldn't McCarthy be the next one in line? That is a no brainer.

Yes, of course....I am talking about the very good possibility, due to workloads and sheer luck (see 2000-01 and Sox pitching) that we might lose a starter to injury or ineffectiveness. I guess it seems impossible, but when you start getting as confident as Sox fans are in the pitching, something is DUE to go wrong, right?

Crede_Fan
11-13-2005, 10:41 AM
Cotts stays in the pen. He has been great in there. Why mess with it. Try to make him a starter again and then he'll become another Jon Adkins.

caulfield12
11-13-2005, 10:45 AM
Cotts stays in the pen. He has been great in there. Why mess with it. Try to make him a starter again and then he'll become another Jon Adkins.

Well, Jon Adkins was never anything to start with...his ERA in AAA when we got him for Durham was around 7 or so.

He had the reputation for a 95 plus MPH fastball, which turned out to be a very pedestrian 90-91.

Cotts big problem was his lack of complementary pitches...he was throwing almost all fastballs and sliders. In order to be successful, he needs to have a bigger curve with something off it and or a changeup. Not sure if he is continuing to build these pitches into his repertoire on the side or not.

I do think he would be better than one half of MLB fifth starters, if I knew he would be the fifth going into the season. I would never compare Cotts and Adkins, even after Adkins had one solid year with the Sox and Cotts started giving up walk-off gopher balls and fading in the second half last season.

vafan
11-13-2005, 11:06 AM
It would be a huge mistake to trade El Duque, for several reasons.

First, having 6 solid starters is a must for a long season.

Second, El Duque is still critical to keeping Contreras focused and on track.

Third, El Duque has proven himself valuable out of the bullpen. Maybe that isn't his first choice, but I believe at this stage of his career, he'll do whatever it takes to help the team win.

Fourth, what are you really going to get for him in return? No team can rely on him as a 5th starter. He got hurt multiple times, and posted a terrible second half.

This guy is a winner. At $4.5 million, he is a huge bargain.

RKMeibalane
11-13-2005, 11:30 AM
Cowley has been wrong about virtually everything that's happened over the past year and a half. Nothing he says has any value whatsoever.

Tragg
11-13-2005, 11:58 AM
El D is a nice guy to have on the team next year; we need another bullpen pitcher and he provides insurance for starters. I'll always be partial to him due to that 6th inning in Boston.
But, he's also an expensive insurance policy.

I'm not sure that we could get a whole lot for him, considering his age, his only mediocre performance as a starter last year, etc.

pissonthecubs
11-13-2005, 12:05 PM
Wouldn't McCarthy be the next one in line? That is a no brainer.

You would think so. He looked great when he got his chance to pitch this year and proved that he should be in the rotation in '06. I loved Cotts in his bullpen roll. A guy you can go to 60-75 times a year whether going in against a lefty or as a set up guy. He and Pollite are going to be two guys who will be great leading up to Jenks.

Jjav829
11-13-2005, 12:08 PM
It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if El Duque is gone. While he is a nice insurance policy as a 6th starter, that $4.5 million can be put to better use. Plus, El Duque wasn't even all that good last year as a whole. He got some huge outs in the postseason, but he had a 5+ ERA in the regular season. If trading El Duque means we are able to keep Konerko around or land someone like Giles or Furcal, well, cya El Duque.

Fredsox
11-13-2005, 01:10 PM
It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if El Duque is gone. While he is a nice insurance policy as a 6th starter, that $4.5 million can be put to better use. Plus, El Duque wasn't even all that good last year as a whole. He got some huge outs in the postseason, but he had a 5+ ERA in the regular season. If trading El Duque means we are able to keep Konerko around or land someone like Giles or Furcal, well, cya El Duque.

Agree completely. Even if all we get are some promsing minor league players for him (build up the long-term talent so we don't look like the Yankees) I'd be fine trading him. I would also be fine if we put him into long relief as he has clearly demonstrated the ability to dominate for 2-3 innings. The article states that he would not want to do that but I would question that statement. Hernandez knows that he's not the kid he used to be and perhaps long relief isn't such a bad thing given his performance overall in 2005.

Huisj
11-13-2005, 04:11 PM
Well, Jon Adkins was never anything to start with...his ERA in AAA when we got him for Durham was around 7 or so.

He had the reputation for a 95 plus MPH fastball, which turned out to be a very pedestrian 90-91.

Cotts big problem was his lack of complementary pitches...he was throwing almost all fastballs and sliders. In order to be successful, he needs to have a bigger curve with something off it and or a changeup. Not sure if he is continuing to build these pitches into his repertoire on the side or not.

I do think he would be better than one half of MLB fifth starters, if I knew he would be the fifth going into the season. I would never compare Cotts and Adkins, even after Adkins had one solid year with the Sox and Cotts started giving up walk-off gopher balls and fading in the second half last season.

Maybe I'm reading the last part of your post wrong, but Cotts gave up 1 home run last year. It was on June 24. His Monthly ERAs down the stretch were 2.34, 0.00, and 2.35 in July, August, and September.

likeawarlord
11-13-2005, 04:20 PM
It would be a huge mistake to trade El Duque, for several reasons.

First, having 6 solid starters is a must for a long season.

Second, El Duque is still critical to keeping Contreras focused and on track.

Third, El Duque has proven himself valuable out of the bullpen. Maybe that isn't his first choice, but I believe at this stage of his career, he'll do whatever it takes to help the team win.

Fourth, what are you really going to get for him in return? No team can rely on him as a 5th starter. He got hurt multiple times, and posted a terrible second half.

This guy is a winner. At $4.5 million, he is a huge bargain.

we got fewer than 6 innings a start and a 5.12 era out of him this year, thats on the wrong end of "solid". we can probably do better with mccarthy/cotts/someone else. he's not worth 4.5 million as a reliever, either, and would you honestly spend that much to keep a guy on the roster and augment contreras' psyche? even looking at all these points combined, i still don't believe its enough to bring him back at this price. the money can be better spent.

Ol' No. 2
11-13-2005, 04:25 PM
we got fewer than 6 innings a start and a 5.12 era out of him this year, thats on the wrong end of "solid". we can probably do better with mccarthy/cotts/someone else. he's not worth 4.5 million as a reliever, either, and would you honestly spend that much to keep a guy on the roster and augment contreras' psyche? even looking at all these points combined, i still don't believe its enough to bring him back at this price. the money can be better spent.In theory, I agree. But all those are also reasons why other teams would not be interested in trading for him. If they want the Sox to eat almost his whole salary, he suddenly becomes a pretty cheap reliever.

likeawarlord
11-13-2005, 04:48 PM
In theory, I agree. But all those are also reasons why other teams would not be interested in trading for him. If they want the Sox to eat almost his whole salary, he suddenly becomes a pretty cheap reliever.

yeah, i imagine we'd have to swallow most of the contract. at any rate, we aren't going to get anything in return for him. i'm just saying that in a perfect world i'd like to see him gone.

caulfield12
11-13-2005, 05:26 PM
Maybe I'm reading the last part of your post wrong, but Cotts gave up 1 home run last year. It was on June 24. His Monthly ERAs down the stretch were 2.34, 0.00, and 2.35 in July, August, and September.

Sorry, I was referring to 2004 with Cotts, not 05.

jabrch
11-13-2005, 05:36 PM
yeah, i imagine we'd have to swallow most of the contract. at any rate, we aren't going to get anything in return for him. i'm just saying that in a perfect world i'd like to see him gone.

That's nonsense. There is no way we'd "swallow most of the contracts". He has tremendous value to this team as a swing man - and that's where he will be unless someone makes us an offer that is too good to refuse - not one where we pay most of the contract. We have no reason to get rid of him at this point.

Domeshot17
11-13-2005, 05:51 PM
El Duque will have trade value. IMHO opinion, you might see a team needing a closer take a gamble on him.

A team like the Cubs would have a HUGE need for a guy like him. A Reliable reliever who is fearless when pitching out of jams, provides insurance relief for Wood when he goes down again, and no teal needed there. A Team like the Reds, looking for some stopgap starters until the kids are ready could be interested, The Brewers could use him, Maybe the Braves or the Giants as well. If he was staying to close, then 4.5 mil for him is a deal.

To say though, that 4.5 mil to use him as a long reliever and spot starter is harsh, because he is replacable. Plenty of starters out there are available to give us 6 a game and a 5 era for much less.

I think he could be an important chip in whatever big trade goes down. I do not think he had much to do with Contreras at all. I think that was all ozzie, Ozzie Jr ( Contreras's self proclaimed new best friend) and Coop. Keep in mind, Duque spent 2 years with Contreras in the Yankees, and didnt do much for him.

likeawarlord
11-13-2005, 06:18 PM
That's nonsense. There is no way we'd "swallow most of the contracts". He has tremendous value to this team as a swing man - and that's where he will be unless someone makes us an offer that is too good to refuse - not one where we pay most of the contract. We have no reason to get rid of him at this point.

we have no reason to trade him, unless, of course, he gets thrown into another deal as part of a contract swap. phil rogers suggests this today. hernandez is definitely overpaid considering his health and performance. if handing the contract (or at least some significant portion of it) over to someone else means that we can acquire someone else via free agency or trade or resign someone like pauly, then its worth it.

El Duque will have trade value. IMHO opinion, you might see a team needing a closer take a gamble on him.

im not sure youd see someone pursuing him as a closer, either. trevor hoffman, billy wagner and b.j. ryan are all free agents, and even kyle farnsworth and bobby howry would be more attractive to teams needing a closer than el duque. the cubs, even if they fail to acquire someone new, are probably better off with dempster than hernandez.

Tragg
11-13-2005, 07:51 PM
im not sure youd see someone pursuing him as a closer, either. trevor hoffman, billy wagner and b.j. ryan are all free agents, and even kyle farnsworth and bobby howry would be more attractive to teams needing a closer than el duque. the cubs, even if they fail to acquire someone new, are probably better off with dempster than hernandez.

That' why I don't see a huge market. There wasn't one last year for him as a starter; nothing he did as a starter suggests that there will be one this year. There are a lot of relievers on the market; El D can't be considered with the top FA closers, so his 4.5MM salary is pretty high for a set-up type reliever.

jortafan
11-13-2005, 08:41 PM
Keep in mind, Duque spent 2 years with Contreras in the Yankees, and didnt do much for him.

Actually, they weren't on the Yankees together anywhere near that long.

When Contreras first joined the Yankees, Hernandez had been traded to Montreal (after passing through the White Sox). Even when the Yankees re-signed him for 2004, he spent a good chunk of that time with their triple-A affiliate. The two of them were together on the Yankees major league roster for about three weeks, before the Yankees turned around and took Esteban Loaiza off the White Sox' hands.

This year was really the first year the two men spent any significant amount of time playing together on the same team in the U.S. major leagues. His presence was a significant part of Contreras' ability to settle down and finally pitch up to his ability.

You are right, however, in noting that Ozzie Guillen was also a factor. And it probably is safe to say that Contreras could probably now get along without Hernandez at his side for the upcoming season.

But the bottom line (I believe) is that Hernandez' contract for the upcoming season makes him untradable unless the White Sox are willing to eat the entire cost. I fully expect to see Hernandez back on the South Side for 2006, even though he's no longer physically fit enough to take the ball every fifth game for seven or so innings at a time.

But we'll always have memories of Game 3 against the Red Sox and those three beautiful innings that finished off Boston's chances for repeating this season as World Series champion.

Flight #24
11-13-2005, 09:48 PM
Let's remember Joe's premise: There's a market for Duque. If true and you don't have to eat much, if any salary, then it makes perfect sense to go ahead and deal him. You have Cotts who's projected by many as a future starter who can come in and possibly spot start. You also have some depth with either a cheap vet long man or possibly a youngster like Gonzalez/Haigwood ready to step up for 1-5 starts in the event of injury.

If that $4.5M becomes available through the trade of Duque, then it makes perfect sense because it's a hell of a lot more valuable to use that to turn Carl Everett's $4.5M and Shingo's $2.5 into a Brian Giles than to keep Duque around in a role that he a)doesn't really want, b)isn't yet proven he can do over the long haul, c)has minimal value on a day to day basis, and d)isn't something that even in the event of injury, can be counted on to last more than 1-2 starts (since he hasn't proven that he can be effective for any reasonable stretch in a row).

Now if there is little to no market for him, then of course the Sox aren't likely to give him away for nothing. That wouldn't make any sense (unless they get some good prospects that they can turn into something better than Duque, but that would be unlikely if there's no market!).

Domeshot17
11-13-2005, 11:52 PM
Jortafan, good note on Hernandez bouncing around, I remember he was in triple A to rehab and get his stuff back, I completely forgot he had been dealt to Montreal for the short period.

I see El Duque moving personally still. Our pen was insane before he went into. I understand the arguement that you dont trade away people from a great chemistry built team, but some guys will come and go anyway. I think if you can move his 4.5 and get someone solid, role player maybe even package him with 2 specs and get a DH, You can get stronger.

I hate the arguement that we should change nothing, it worked last year and it will this year. I kind of think of it as this, we won world war 1, so dont change anything to win world war 2. The Indians Twins etc. are going to get bigger and deeper, and we need to as well.

Right now our strongest parts are: Bullpen and Starting Pitching. Now, we have some movable parts in the bullpen. If Hermanson comes back, we figure him jenks cotts politte are all back. Vizciano Marte and El Duque are on the bubble.

Biggest needs are: DH, maybe a 1b, and however it works, we need a 3 and 4 hitter.

Vizciano would be nothing but a throw in, Marte is a questionable as El Duque. So I could see El Duque being dealt to improve the team.

jabrch
11-14-2005, 01:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabrch
El Duque will have trade value. IMHO opinion, you might see a team needing a closer take a gamble on him.



Don't put something in quotes and attribute it to me WHEN I NEVER SAID IT. People have been banned around here for much less than that.

likeawarlord
11-14-2005, 09:44 AM
Don't put something in quotes and attribute it to me WHEN I NEVER SAID IT. People have been banned around here for much less than that.

calm down, it was an accident and you know it.

GAsoxfan
11-14-2005, 04:42 PM
Hermanson has started in the past (180 career starts). He could probably fill in if someone gets injured.

likeawarlord
11-15-2005, 02:03 AM
Hermanson has started in the past (180 career starts). He could probably fill in if someone gets injured.

yeah i thought about that too, at this point i think you have to doubt whether or not his back would hold up, though.

veeter
11-15-2005, 09:13 AM
All I can say is these writers have a tough time filling space in the off-season.

the gooch
11-15-2005, 11:27 AM
the article said duque doesnt want to be in the bullpen. he still sees himself as a starter. fine, but not on the sox. let him find out himself if theres a market for him in that capacity. once he sees there is or isnt, do what he wants as long as it makes sense for the sox.
we let graf go to try to be a starter, because the royals let him try. shingo got released to latch onto another team.
duque needs to decide if he wants to come out the pen on a contender or start in tampa, etc.