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View Full Version : Boers and Bernstein's take on this offseason


Erik The Red
11-04-2005, 05:47 PM
I was listening earlier and B&B were talking about the fact that it's very likely that one or more of Paulie, Rowand, and Crede will not be around next year, and how it's not really a bad thing. They mentioned the fact that Atlanta has built their teams around good pitching and rotating in people who know how to play the game (hitting, advancing runners, playing defense, etc.). Their big hitters have left or been traded, but they've remained in the playoff hunt year in and year out because of their strong base of starting pitching and their intelligence in finding the right players to put around them.

I agree with them 100%. As hard as it may be to see some of the players we've become attached to leave, it may be what's best for the team. Just look at last offseason. We lost all of Lee and Maggs' power, and put together one of the best teams (if not THE best) in franchise history.

So, in short... be patient this offseason. Don't pull out your hair if PK, or Rowand, or Crede, or anyone else leaves. Our pitching is our bread and butter, and they're locked up through next year already.

TheOldRoman
11-04-2005, 05:55 PM
I agree with everything you said, except for the possibility of Crede leaving. There is no way in hell Crede gets traded in the offseason. He won't be a free agent yet, and there are no better alternatives. Rowand might be moved because a) his value is very high; and b) we have Anderson and possibly others waiting in the wings to fill in for him. We don't have anyone in the minors who is even remotely close to playing Crede's level of 3B defense. We also know that Crede is going to give us at least .250 with 20 homers, with lots of clutch hits. He also has a big upside. It is my opinion, as well as the opinion of many others on this board, that Crede made huge strides this past season, and will continue to improve. The Sox will be looking to sign Crede to an extention. If they can't, he might be gone after 06, but not beforehand.

Dick Allen
11-04-2005, 05:59 PM
I agree with everything you said, except for the possibility of Crede leaving. There is no way in hell Crede gets traded in the offseason. He won't be a free agent yet, and there are no better alternatives. Rowand might be moved because a) his value is very high; and b) we have Anderson and possibly others waiting in the wings to fill in for him. We don't have anyone in the minors who is even remotely close to playing Crede's level of 3B defense. We also know that Crede is going to give us at least .250 with 20 homers, with lots of clutch hits. He also has a big upside. It is my opinion, as well as the opinion of many others on this board, that Crede made huge strides this past season, and will continue to improve. The Sox will be looking to sign Crede to an extention. If they can't, he might be gone after 06, but not beforehand.Just remember who Crede's agent is.

Hitmen77
11-04-2005, 06:07 PM
October 26th, 2005. 13,774 days have passed since Red Faber went the distance to beat the New York Giants in Game 6 of the 1917 World Series. My grandfather's eyes saw so much history, from the stock market crash to WWII to man's first steps on the moon... but he never saw his favorite team win the World Series. This is for you, grandpa. I'll see you soon at River Hills, with a shot of blackberry brandy... trying to fight the tears back.

by the way, that's got to be a typo in your signature. No way it's been only 13,774 days since 1917. Maybe you got the 1 and 3 reversed? Because 31,000 something sounds more like it.

TaylorStSox
11-04-2005, 06:16 PM
Just remember who Crede's agent is.

Who's Juan Uribe's agent?

Blueprint1
11-04-2005, 06:26 PM
yes and they are still waiting for the St.Louis VS LA world series that they were so sure was going to happen. I hate these two guys.

Sox35th
11-04-2005, 06:34 PM
I agree with the fact that Atlanta knows how to built good team year after year, but not teams that can take it all the way. Yes, we all know what a great defense and pitching can do for a team (2005 World Championship)


With that said I don’t think that Sox should trade Rowand and Crede….these guys a futre gold glovers!! Sure there are the guys in the minors, but I think they still are a year or so from coming up to the big team…..But, I think the one guy that could step in now would be Brian Anderson (As we all know) So, I think the Sox could live without Paulie!! Yes, I would love to see everyone back next year, but I think Kenny Williams could still find someone to hit 30hr and 75-85rbi. Lets not forget there was a point (a couple of times) in the season when Paulie was in a real slump!! I think this is a big reason why the Sox didn’t offer him a deal during the regular season. He just got HOT in the playoff…like I said, I think Paulie is a great guy to have in the clubhouse and can play the hell out of first base and I hope they can resign him, but lets not trade away two/three great guys to keep one. Where ever Paulie ends up next year he still will hit 35-40hr and 90-100rbi, but he will still be Paulie…..and look for him to go into his 2-22 slumps!!



I think the key for a repeat is for Rowand and Crede to have career years in 2006!! Also, look for big Frank to be back and add some major power at DH…….You’ll see the 1993-94 Frank next season guaranteed……I think he is going to come back stronger then ever!!



Go Sox!!

TomBradley72
11-04-2005, 06:34 PM
I agree with the overall "Braves philosophy"...if we can hold our rotation together (Buehrle, Garland, Contreras, Garcia, MacCarthy) and have a great closer (Jenks)....we can absorb some changes in the everyday line up.

The best example was sweeping the Indians at the end of the season...playing our "B" team while they were still trying to clinch the Wild Card. Solid starting pitching is what we're all about. In some ways locking up Garland to a multi-year contract might be more important to our future than PK (with Contreras aging and Garcia and Buehrle's contracts expiring after 2007).

kevin57
11-04-2005, 06:38 PM
I agree that the Braves' analogy is a good one; however, let's not forget how they fade year after year after year in the post-season.

I get a sense that Sox fans are already resigned--but not in despair--over Konerko possibly being gone and Rowand, a fan favorite, not being in the mix either.

IronFisk
11-04-2005, 06:55 PM
If I recall, a year ago we were "worried" about losing Maggs. Didn't turn out so bad, eh?

Thus, if Paulie decides to demand Midas-like money, then I would have no quams about letting him go. Those bucks would be far better used in keeping the rest of the team, and/or filling holes.

Being said, I'm pretty confident they'll bring Paulie back. JR opened up his pocketbook mighty wide after those Bulls titles - and he DOES like da Sox more, right?

doctorlecter
11-04-2005, 07:01 PM
Maybe Jerry will slip in a "diminished skills" clause on Paulie, and sign him for the extra year. Rowand's drop in production this year scared me a little bit, but I think that they will give him the opportunity to start in center field next year, knowing that they will have a backup option in Charlotte that could step in. I have a hard time believing that the defending world champs would trade away a starter and let a rookie start in center. As for Joe, I think you'll see the one-year arbitration contract this year, and bye-bye in 2007. Satan (sp?) Boras will obviously play up his "clutch" .250 hitter to the point that someone will overpay him. I would be absolutely shocked if they agree on a three-year deal. But I really do see all three of them performing on the South Side next year.

Erik The Red
11-04-2005, 08:14 PM
by the way, that's got to be a typo in your signature. No way it's been only 13,774 days since 1917. Maybe you got the 1 and 3 reversed? Because 31,000 something sounds more like it.
You know... you're right. I should have known better, I just took the number from some video I saw on espn.com. I just calculated it for myself:


Oct. 15, 1917 - Oct. 26, 2005


365 * 88 years = 32,120

+ 22 leap days = 32,142

+ 11 days between 10/15 and 10/26 = 32,153


Thanks for bringing that to my attention!

Erik The Red
11-04-2005, 08:21 PM
Lets not forget there was a point (a couple of times) in the season when Paulie was in a real slump!! I think this is a big reason why the Sox didn’t offer him a deal during the regular season. He just got HOT in the playoff…like I said, I think Paulie is a great guy to have in the clubhouse and can play the hell out of first base and I hope they can resign him, but lets not trade away two/three great guys to keep one. Where ever Paulie ends up next year he still will hit 35-40hr and 90-100rbi, but he will still be Paulie…..and look for him to go into his 2-22 slumps!!
:hawk

"Are you NUTS?!?!?"


Seriously, Paulie was lights-out for much more than just the playoffs. He didn't hit 40 HR by accident. EVERY player goes through slumps.

Palehose13
11-04-2005, 09:24 PM
Who's Juan Uribe's agent?

Martin Arburua

MadetoOrta
11-04-2005, 09:35 PM
The Sox aren't trading Crede when he's earning less than $500,000. I too expect Joe to go crazy next year as he prepares for his big payday. If his back holds out, I see 27-32 HRs and 80-90 rbi. Call me nuts. You've got to be really good to be player of the year in the Southern League. The months of September and October 2005 was Joe Crede's coming out party.

CleeFan101
11-05-2005, 03:50 AM
There are some rumors of Blalock but I doubt it since the same rumors have Garcia in the trade and Blalock actually had a lower OPS than Crede I think.... he obviously has more talent and a higher ceiling but Blalock sucks away from home.

So yeah I dont think Crede will be traded, he will be back for at least 1 more year and maybe even get an extension. Rowand and Konerko though are real possibilities of not returning. Konerko because all the money he wants and Rowand because we have a replacement b4 him and his value is high. He had a really ****ty OPS this season and if he puts another down year offensively his value will be at an all time low and we could have 2-3 OF prospects ready for the bigs.

nccwsfan
11-05-2005, 04:05 AM
I can see Rowand being traded in the offseason b/c of Anderson being ready, but I don't see Crede being moved anytime soon (at least 2 years). He's arbitration eligible and will get a nice bump in salary, but for what he brings to the table he's a bargain for a 3B of his caliber. Unfortunately we'll have to deal with the Boras factor down the road, but for 2006 and 2007 Crede's our 3B.

PK? Would love to have him and his production back, but if he bolts this winter we all see the silver lining. A lot of money for KW to fill the holes and lock up current players. Garland's the guy we should be trying to sign to a long term deal, with an eye on keeping Buehrle and Garcia past 2007...

downstairs
11-05-2005, 08:08 AM
Absolutely Crede could be traded.

You have to remember... like anything else in life, if you're looking to make a trade to shore up another hole in your lineup/defense... you have to sell high and buy low.

Right now, after the World Series, Crede's trade value is far, far, far beyond reality. If you're going to trade him, you trade him now. He will never *seem* this valuable to other hungry teams again.

That's not saying they WILL trade him... I don't know what we need and from whom, etc.

EVERYONE is tradeable and replaceable other than our pitchers. EVERYONE.

People seem to forget that you should get something back of equal value to the "percieved" value of your player.

Flight #24
11-05-2005, 08:12 AM
Just remember who Crede's agent is.

This makes no difference. Because Crede's not eligible for FA for at least another 3 years. So their worst case is arbitration, and Joe's not breaking the bank there. More like a jump to $2-3M salary.

Tragg
11-05-2005, 08:44 AM
I don't get this trade Crede talk. Crede is going to work for a moderate amount of money for a few more years. And he hasn't done THAT much to warrant a whole lot in return if we trade him - at the same token he may not have reached his peak. And who do we want? Randa? Bill Mueller? Egads!

Contrast this to Rowand, also off of a nice year, at least defensively, and we pretty much know what he can produce. He's also cheap, but also plays a position in which we have depth in the upper minors.

ChicagoHoosier
11-05-2005, 09:52 AM
I don't get this trade Crede talk. Crede is going to work for a moderate amount of money for a few more years. And he hasn't done THAT much to warrant a whole lot in return if we trade him - at the same token he may not have reached his peak. And who do we want? Randa? Bill Mueller? Egads!

Contrast this to Rowand, also off of a nice year, at least defensively, and we pretty much know what he can produce. He's also cheap, but also plays a position in which we have depth in the upper minors.

I don't get it either. I don't think there is a whole lot better you can do for his price. So, unless you can get an absolute steal and then accept putting a lesser player at 3B, I see no reason to trade Crede. Sure, value is high now, but would we really get enough in return to offset what we lose defensively and (at times) offensively from him?

Dick Allen
11-05-2005, 10:31 AM
This makes no difference. Because Crede's not eligible for FA for at least another 3 years. So their worst case is arbitration, and Joe's not breaking the bank there. More like a jump to $2-3M salary.No, but somewhere down the line, it's going to bite them in the butt if Crede continues to improve.

nccwsfan
11-05-2005, 10:58 AM
Absolutely Crede could be traded.

You have to remember... like anything else in life, if you're looking to make a trade to shore up another hole in your lineup/defense... you have to sell high and buy low.

Right now, after the World Series, Crede's trade value is far, far, far beyond reality. If you're going to trade him, you trade him now. He will never *seem* this valuable to other hungry teams again.

That's not saying they WILL trade him... I don't know what we need and from whom, etc.

EVERYONE is tradeable and replaceable other than our pitchers. EVERYONE.

People seem to forget that you should get something back of equal value to the "percieved" value of your player.

Well I agree that Crede 'could' be traded- my guess is that he won't be traded. Not for several years anyway. A potential Gold Glover who is finding his groove in the 8 hole at $3 mil per year (which we won't know until January) is a bargain. I just don't see him moving, but yes there is always the possibility and no one in the lineup is an untouchable.

I love Ro, but moving him or Anderson does make some sense, and I can see that happening this offseason. El Duque's another guy that could be elsewhere by February.

SoxSpeed22
11-05-2005, 11:20 AM
Just out of curiousity, can MLB players hold-out?

caulfield12
11-05-2005, 12:10 PM
No, but somewhere down the line, it's going to bite them in the butt if Crede continues to improve.

Therein lies the Jon Garland argument...if we dealt him with Singleton for Erstad, probably no WS championship for the South Side. We have already shown a ton of patience with Crede...he has earned at least another year, he is cheap for at least two more seasons and Josh Fields is simply not ready yet.

OTOH, you have hot prospects that we held too long, like Ginter, Rauch, West, Stumm, Dellaero, Corwin Malone and especially Borchard, when we could have gotten some major league ready players in return.

Obviously, we will keep Crede for at least one more season...then a lot depends on how he plays this year, Boras, and finally, Josh Fields...and how much he improves, both offensively (good signs in AFL) and especially on the defensive side.

Ol' No. 2
11-05-2005, 12:14 PM
No, but somewhere down the line, it's going to bite them in the butt if Crede continues to improve.I'm sure Jerry Reinsdorf is hoping THAT doesn't happen.

Just for the record. That would be a GOOD thing.

Ol' No. 2
11-05-2005, 12:16 PM
Just out of curiousity, can MLB players hold-out?Certainly. There's no law requiring you to do a job. Manny Ramirez has threatened to do just that.

TaylorStSox
11-05-2005, 01:36 PM
This makes no difference. Because Crede's not eligible for FA for at least another 3 years. So their worst case is arbitration, and Joe's not breaking the bank there. More like a jump to $2-3M salary.


Right. Also, Boras has a history of encouraging his players to go through the arbitration process. For all his faults, he's an advocate of the current system.

Re: Crede's trade value... Among the "tools based" teams, Crede's trade value has always been high. He's struggled, but his 3 tools are still above average for his position. If he ever puts it together, he's going to be a 280/30/100 guy. That's excellent for a 3rd baseman. He did hit 22HR in only 430 AB's while K'ing 66 times. Let's compare that with Rowand who hit 13 HR in 578 AB's with 116K's. I agree that his trade value's never been higher, but it's always been pretty high. The difference is that Rowand has a few guys ready or near ready to take over while Fields is still pretty far away.

caulfield12
11-05-2005, 01:39 PM
If he ever puts it together, he's going to be a 280/30/100 guy. That's excellent for a 3rd baseman. He did hit 22HR in only 430 AB's while K'ing 66 times. Let's compare that with Rowand who hit 13 HR in 578 AB's with 116K's. I agree that his trade value's never been higher, but it's always been pretty high. The difference is that Rowand has a few guys ready or near ready to take over while Fields is still pretty far away.

I think Crede should be counted on to hit .260-.275 with 22-28 homers and 75-90 RBIs per season for the next two years. All Sox fans would be happy with that kind of production offensively, to go with the defense.

TaylorStSox
11-05-2005, 01:43 PM
I think Crede should be counted on to hit .260-.275 with 22-28 homers and 75-90 RBIs per season for the next two years. All Sox fans would be happy with that kind of production offensively, to go with the defense.

Agreed. I've been content with his production for the last 2 years though. He's still a high ceiling guy, IMO.

Erik The Red
11-05-2005, 01:57 PM
PK? Would love to have him and his production back, but if he bolts this winter we all see the silver lining. A lot of money for KW to fill the holes and lock up current players.
Precisely. That $14 million we didn't spend on Magg$ went to pretty good use in 2005.

soxfanreggie
11-05-2005, 02:02 PM
I talked to Dan and Terry on the air, and they actually said a 2 year $5 mil. contract for Frank with incentives. Heck, that was a mil more than I was saying and I am a huge Frank fan. I just hope the Docs give us some good news, and Frank inks a 2 year huge incentive based/injury voidant (is that even a word haha) contract.

caulfield12
11-05-2005, 02:08 PM
I talked to Dan and Terry on the air, and they actually said a 2 year $5 mil. contract for Frank with incentives. Heck, that was a mil more than I was saying and I am a huge Frank fan. I just hope the Docs give us some good news, and Frank inks a 2 year huge incentive based/injury voidant (is that even a word haha) contract.

I am not sure how expensive an insurance rider would be in this case. I know they had one when they signed David Wells in 2001, and that covered a significant portion of his lost salary when he went down to injury in mid-season. But who would be gutsy enough to insure Thomas? Only a Sox fan working for Warren Buffett, but I think Warren would pick up on it, lol.

GAsoxfan
11-07-2005, 01:11 PM
I am not sure how expensive an insurance rider would be in this case.

Given his injury history, pretty expensive. Jerry may be better off just taking the chance Thomas stays healthy.

Deuce
11-07-2005, 01:21 PM
Just remember who Crede's agent is.

:borass:

"Hi, my name is Scott Whore-ass, and I represent 'Sox Legend' Joe Crede."

Ol' No. 2
11-07-2005, 01:21 PM
Given his injury history, pretty expensive. Jerry may be better off just taking the chance Thomas stays healthy.I'm pretty sure teams generally don't buy insurance on contracts of that size. It's not like we're talking about a $50M contract here.

kitekrazy
11-07-2005, 01:48 PM
If you trade Crede, you need a lot more run production in his place. You'll need it to make up for potential hits that get through 3rd.

The defense at SS and 3rd prevented a lot of hits. Why mess with that?