PDA

View Full Version : Couple of questions concerning Lyle Overbay


buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 06:18 PM
Lyle Overbay has been my default answer to anybody who asks me "who will replace Konerko at first if he leaves?"

My questions are:
1) How long is he signed for? If it's through '07, that should leave Rogo plenty of time to hone his skills in the minors and take over as the full-time 1B in 2008.

2) What other teams can use Overbay? The Brewers would trade him because they have confidence in Prince Fielder. Erubiel Durazo, Kevin Millar, and JT Snow are all serviceable 1Bs out there for whoever doesn't sign Konerko.

3) Will any rumblings of the Rockies trading Todd Helton lessen the # of teams in on the bidding for Overbay? If those teams happen to be Boston, LAA, and Baltimore, I think it could be significant because all those teams have some extra cash laying around that they could use on Helton.

All this is contingent on where Konerko goes. Hopefully, it will be nowhere, because I would much rather have him than Overbay.

Banix12
11-01-2005, 06:37 PM
The thing about Overbay, and the thing that gets a lot of us on the board really sick of all the "let's acquire Overbay" threads, is that his skill set is a fairly common one. He's a good defensive first baseman, with a little bit of pop and a patient bat, but he doesn't have enough power to make him incredibly desirable as an everyday 1st baseman for a long period of time.

Guys like Sean Casey, Ross Gload, Mark Grace, and countless others have almost the exact same skill set. The minor leagues is crowded with these guys.

The bad thing about guys like Overbay and Gload and a lot of the other guys is they are left handed, which means they can't be converted into 3rd basemen where their bat would be appreciated.

The market for Lyle Overbay isn't very big because he is a relatively common player who had one big season in 2004. Some team could use him as a stopgap if they have a big time first baseman coming up in the minors, like the Brewers used him. I would just as well pass on him though.

Question, have the white sox pegged Rogowski as the 1st baseman of the future for sure? I know he's the best first baseman in the system but is he considered a sure thing in the same vein as a Prince Fielder?

As per Overbay's contract status, I believe he is still on his first major league contract and I think it lasts another 2 years, though I'm not positive. He only made a little above 400K last season and I think he is arbitration eligable so he should see a slight bump, probably somewhere between 1 and 2 million.

EDIT: I just got a look at Rogowski's 2005 AA stats. Hardly impressive, Overbay and Gload both were displaying better power when they were his age and getting a taste of MLB play. 9 HRs in over 500 ABs? Power better develop for him soon because at this rate (six years as a pro and he just got to AA this season?!?) he doesn't look like a guy who will be in Chicago anytime soon.

munchman33
11-01-2005, 07:57 PM
The thing about Overbay, and the thing that gets a lot of us on the board really sick of all the "let's acquire Overbay" threads, is that his skill set is a fairly common one. He's a good defensive first baseman, with a little bit of pop and a patient bat, but he doesn't have enough power to make him incredibly desirable as an everyday 1st baseman for a long period of time.

Guys like Sean Casey, Ross Gload, Mark Grace, and countless others have almost the exact same skill set. The minor leagues is crowded with these guys.

The bad thing about guys like Overbay and Gload and a lot of the other guys is they are left handed, which means they can't be converted into 3rd basemen where their bat would be appreciated.

The market for Lyle Overbay isn't very big because he is a relatively common player who had one big season in 2004. Some team could use him as a stopgap if they have a big time first baseman coming up in the minors, like the Brewers used him. I would just as well pass on him though.

Question, have the white sox pegged Rogowski as the 1st baseman of the future for sure? I know he's the best first baseman in the system but is he considered a sure thing in the same vein as a Prince Fielder?

As per Overbay's contract status, I believe he is still on his first major league contract and I think it lasts another 2 years, though I'm not positive. He only made a little above 400K last season and I think he is arbitration eligable so he should see a slight bump, probably somewhere between 1 and 2 million.

So Overbay is a good defensive player with a little pop and a lot to prove. Tell me again why he wouldn't be a perfect fit for this team?

Banix12
11-01-2005, 08:23 PM
So Overbay is a good defensive player with a little pop and a lot to prove. Tell me again why he wouldn't be a perfect fit for this team?

Ugh, I don't want to get into a whole thing here. So I'm not a FOLO (has a ring to it actually).

He's not a great fit because the white sox need power out of 1b and Overbay has never hit 20 HRs at any level of his development. He's Mark Grace with a lower career average. He's Ross Gload in Brewers clothing. He's like 1000 other AAA 1b. Why trade for a guy who we already basically have.

He might get a bit of a power boost playing at the Cell but not much. Miller Park is hardly a difficult place to hit.

itsnotrequired
11-01-2005, 09:08 PM
As per Overbay's contract status, I believe he is still on his first major league contract and I think it lasts another 2 years, though I'm not positive. He only made a little above 400K last season and I think he is arbitration eligable so he should see a slight bump, probably somewhere between 1 and 2 million.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers signed him to only a one year deal for this last season. He is arbitration eligible in 2006.

rdivaldi
11-01-2005, 09:11 PM
EDIT: I just got a look at Rogowski's 2005 AA stats. Hardly impressive, Overbay and Gload both were displaying better power when they were his age and getting a taste of MLB play. 9 HRs in over 500 ABs? Power better develop for him soon because at this rate (six years as a pro and he just got to AA this season?!?) he doesn't look like a guy who will be in Chicago anytime soon.

Let's not forget though that Casey was set back almost 2 years due to injury problems, or else he would have probably been knocking on the door to the majors this year. His swing generates a lot of topspin, thus a lot of his hard hit balls turn into doubles, and it also didn't help that he played in a big time pitcher's ballpark. Casey is a unique blend of size, speed, and athleticism. What might hold him back is his swing, which is a bit long. But don't be surprised if he's battling for a spot on the major league roster next season.

Hawk Harrelson
11-01-2005, 09:18 PM
Overbay is a HUGE offensive downgrade from Konerko. I am not totally against acquiring him, but you have to replace some of that power elsewhere. Remember this "smallball" team actually scored a significat percentage of their runs via the homer. Simply replacing Konerko with Overbay and not upgrading elsewhere would be a very bad idea in my opinion.

Moving Dye to first is not a bad idea, although you hate to move a guy with such a good arm and glove. However, if you move Dye to first we could sign a guy like Jacque Jones, who would fit perfectly on this team.

buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 09:22 PM
Overbay is a HUGE offensive downgrade from Konerko. I am not totally against acquiring him, but you have to replace some of that power elsewhere. Remember this "smallball" team actually scored a significat percentage of their runs via the homer. Simply replacing Konerko with Overbay and not upgrading elsewhere would be a very bad idea in my opinion.

Moving Dye to first is not a bad idea, although you hate to move a guy with such a good arm and glove. However, if you move Dye to first we could sign a guy like Jacque Jones, who would fit perfectly on this team.

I would hope that the loss of power could be countered by having a healthy Frank Thomas. Moving Dye, who has the best arm of any of our outfielders, would be a bad decision because he's not familiar with the position, unless you make the decision before 2006 to move him there. He then would have to put in long hours working on the positions and throws.

Brian26
11-01-2005, 09:22 PM
Moving Dye to first is not a bad idea, although you hate to move a guy with such a good arm and glove. However, if you move Dye to first we could sign a guy like Jacque Jones, who would fit perfectly on this team.

The nice thing about picking up Jacques Jones would be that he wouldn't be able to bash our brains in 18 times a year like he's been doing since 2001.

I don't want to see Dye at first though.

buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 09:28 PM
The nice thing about picking up Jacques Jones would be that he wouldn't be able to bash our brains in 18 times a year like he's been doing since 2001.


Jones actually would look pretty good if Frank ends up leaving, too.

The problem is, you can't sign both of them. Jones probably won't sign to platoon at DH and maybe be full-time if Frank gets hurt, and there's not an opening for him in the outfield.

Hawk Harrelson
11-01-2005, 09:29 PM
I would hope that the loss of power could be countered by having a healthy Frank Thomas. Moving Dye, who has the best arm of any of our outfielders, would be a bad decision because he's not familiar with the position, unless you make the decision before 2006 to move him there. He then would have to put in long hours working on the positions and throws.

I would love for Frank to come and provide that power and if he's healthy I think he will. But we all know that you can no longer rely on the health of Frank Thomas.

Your points about Dye are good. It would be tough to get rid of his arm in the OF, although I think he would be able to pick up 1B fairly easilly, if I remember correctly he has played there in the minors.

buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 09:32 PM
I think he would be able to pick up 1B fairly easilly, if I remember correctly he has played there in the minors.

Valid point, first base is usually the easiest position to pick up, but a concern I would have is that if JD makes an error there, that he would dwell on it and be negatively effected at the plate...leading to more Dye-bashing by Hangar.:redneck

Hawk Harrelson
11-01-2005, 09:33 PM
Jones actually would look pretty good if Frank ends up leaving, too.

The problem is, you can't sign both of them. Jones probably won't sign to platoon at DH and maybe be full-time if Frank gets hurt, and there's not an opening for him in the outfield.

No way you could DH a guy like Jones. However, I know this may be an unpopular comment, but I wouldn't mind them trading Rowand to make some room in the OF. I like Rowand and obviously his outfield play was great, but his offensive production was lacking and his inability to lay down a bunt did not gain the respect of his manager. I'd take Jones over Rowand in a second, especialyl if you could get something valuable off the Yankees for Rowand.

buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 09:35 PM
No way you could DH a guy like Jones. However, I know this may be an unpopular comment, but I wouldn't mind them trading Rowand to make some room in the OF. I like Rowand and obviously his outfield play was great, but his offensive production was lacking and his inability to lay down a bunt did not gain the respect of his manager. I'd take Jones over Rowand in a second, especialyl if you could get something valuable off the Yankees for Rowand.

Now we get into the chemistry factor. I think that trading Rowand would have a negative effect on the clubhouse chemistry, which was so good this year. Plus, Jones is a RF, Rowand a CF. The only option there would be to throw Jones in left and put Pods back in CF.

Hawk Harrelson
11-01-2005, 09:39 PM
Now we get into the chemistry factor. I think that trading Rowand would have a negative effect on the clubhouse chemistry, which was so good this year. Plus, Jones is a RF, Rowand a CF. The only option there would be to throw Jones in left and put Pods back in CF.

I believe that Jones would be able to play CF, I could be wrong about that but I am pretty sure he would be a better CF than Pods.

I don't think that removing Rowand would have a huge effect on chemistry, especially replacing him with a guy like Jones who would fit right in with Ozzie and the guys. It seemed to me that Ozzzie was not to happy with Rowand at the end of the season, especially when he failed to lay down a bunt in the WS(Game 4 I think).

Honestly I like Rowand as a person, but I just think if we can get something for him we should, especially with Young in the minors.

buehrle4cy05
11-01-2005, 09:44 PM
I believe that Jones would be able to play CF, I could be wrong about that but I am pretty sure he would be a better CF than Pods.

I don't think that removing Rowand would have a huge effect on chemistry, especially replacing him with a guy like Jones who would fit right in with Ozzie and the guys. It seemed to me that Ozzzie was not to happy with Rowand at the end of the season, especially when he failed to lay down a bunt in the WS(Game 4 I think).

Honestly I like Rowand as a person, but I just think if we can get something for him we should, especially with Young in the minors.

I think you are undervaluing defense. Think of the games that Rowand has saved this year with some great plays out in center. He seriously set the tone in New York, and the series before he had that great catch at the wall against Seattle that sealed the deal there. I'm concerned about Jones' range in CF, where you need the most range...

If you trade Rowand, you have to consider who you would get in return to make it profitable. Todd Helton is the only 1B that could be on the block that would be better than a trade for Overbay. And for the kind of $ he's making inflating his stats in Colorado, I would rather have Konerko.

BTW, thanks for the great baseball discussion, Hawk!:)

Hawk Harrelson
11-01-2005, 09:48 PM
BTW, thanks for the great baseball discussion, Hawk!:)

Same to you Burls, all your points are valid. I always enjoy a little back and forth baseball discussion.

mcp5185
11-01-2005, 10:31 PM
I think Jacque Jones would be a great addition to our team. We could do a four man rotation for the outfield with Anderson, Pods, Dye, and Jones. Anderson would mostly handle CF duties with POdsednik and Jones stepping in occasionally. The odd man out would also be able to DH on days Frank can't go or if he gets hurt.

By the way Jones does have a decent amount of experience in CF.(he has played 159 games there) http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4085&context=fielding

NWSox
11-01-2005, 11:10 PM
I think the past two years have proven decisively the superiority of the AL over the NL, so I'm skeptical about translating NL performance to the AL. A guy like Pods had a big impact through his baserunning and defense but his offensive production was below average for his position. I have this suspicion that a guy like Overbay will go from above average in the NL to average or below average in the AL. Although I'm not a big fan of Jones, at least you know what you're getting. He's been battling in the AL Central for years.

Mr. White Sox
11-01-2005, 11:38 PM
Question, have the white sox pegged Rogowski as the 1st baseman of thefuture for sure? I know he's the best first baseman in the system but is he considered a sure thing in the same vein as a Prince Fielder?

EDIT: I just got a look at Rogowski's 2005 AA stats. Hardly impressive, Overbay and Gload both were displaying better power when they were his age and getting a taste of MLB play. 9 HRs in over 500 ABs? Power better develop for him soon because at this rate (six years as a pro and he just got to AA this season?!?) he doesn't look like a guy who will be in Chicago anytime soon.

-Rogo is definitely not being pegged as the 1B of the future, and isn't anywhere near the league of the Adrian Gonzalez's, Ryan Howards, etc. He has been compared by others to be of Ross Gload caliber (due to the LH, similar power, and similar age progressions), and probably has a higher ceiling than that. He had shown a tremendous lack of power last year, but that was probably due to the conditions of the B'ham ballpark. However, he is in no way pegged as a future starter; he'll probably be up in a Gload-like role in two years or this September if he continues to improve. This is coming from a minor-league noob, and I'm sure maurice and Randar could provide much better information on him.

-Overbay is signed through 2006; that's it. I'd personally have Sean Casey over Overbay, as he's consistently hit for a high average, but then you get into a power-loss discussion, an old 1B, and too many other problems including a high $$. No thanks on either...good points on Overbay before.

-Ideal situation would be resigning PK to a three year deal, I think. Getting someone like Carlos Delgado or Adam Dunn through trade is also quite a nice idea, but probably won't happen. A LH power bat is one of the main needs going into the offseason, and we'll see if KW can pull something off.

SoxFan76
11-01-2005, 11:43 PM
Adam Dunn, yuck. Doesn't he have like 2 sac flies in his career? Plus, I don't care for all the K's. This team relies on sac flies, sac bunts, moving a guy over, Adam Dunn doesn't seem to have any of those abilities.

jabrch
11-02-2005, 12:07 AM
So Overbay is a good defensive player with a little pop and a lot to prove. Tell me again why he wouldn't be a perfect fit for this team?

Because that is not what this team needs from its 1B. If we lose PK, we need to replace his production.

Grinders are nice stories, but we need guys who can hit. Overbay walks - which is nice. He has a decent, but not spectacular average. He has slight power. We have that - his name is Ross Gload. If we lose PK, I have no interest in paying much for Overbay. .276/.367/.449 just doesn't do it for me.

Someone tell me his VORP?

jabrch
11-02-2005, 12:08 AM
I think Jacque Jones would be a great addition to our team.

YUCK

Ever see him try and hit a lefty? After a World Series Championship, why are we trying to settle for garbage that the Twins are happy to get rid of?

jabrch
11-02-2005, 12:12 AM
Adam Dunn, yuck. Doesn't he have like 2 sac flies in his career? Plus, I don't care for all the K's.

OMG - I can't take this anymore. Are you serious? .248/.387/.540 And just entering his prime at age 26... And you say YUCK?

Way too many people are falling hook, line and sinker for this whole Grinder thing. Gang - that's marketing stuff. KW assembled the best team of baseball players he could find. It took a PK, an Everett, and a Dye. Those aren't GRINDERS. We need SOMEONE who can mash if we lose PK. I can't believe we have people touting Lyle Freaking Overbay and bashing Adam Dunn at 1B.

Banix12
11-02-2005, 12:52 AM
OMG - I can't take this anymore. Are you serious? .248/.387/.540 And just entering his prime at age 26... And you say YUCK?

Way too many people are falling hook, line and sinker for this whole Grinder thing. Gang - that's marketing stuff. KW assembled the best team of baseball players he could find. It took a PK, an Everett, and a Dye. Those aren't GRINDERS. We need SOMEONE who can mash if we lose PK. I can't believe we have people touting Lyle Freaking Overbay and bashing Adam Dunn at 1B.

I know, this is bizzaro world right now. Bashing Adam Dunn and his back to back 40 HR seasons because he doesn't hit sac flies? Adam Dunn doesn't hit too many sac flies because if he hits one in the air, it has a really good shot at leaving the park.

If Konerko left I would jump for joy replacing him with Adam Dunn because their production is actually about equal. Dunn's actually could be slightly better, even with the K's.

I might also consider trying to grab Huff off the D-Rays, even though he had a bit of a down season last year.

Overbay though is way, way down on my 1b wish list. You could probably get just as much production out of 500 at bats from Matt Stairs as you would 500 at bats from Overbay. I don't see people clamoring for Matt Stairs around here.

Mr. White Sox
11-02-2005, 01:36 AM
If Konerko left I would jump for joy replacing him with Adam Dunn because their production is actually about equal. Dunn's actually could be slightly better, even with the K's.


Not to mention the point you already brought up, that Adam Dunn is entering his prime at age 26. PK has reached it at 29 (30 before the season starts), and while he will still put up great numbers, they'll continue for 3/4 years as a conservative estimate, and at a much higher salary. My goodness people; the reason why Adam Dunn only has two career sac flies is because:

1) Cincinnati's ballpark is crazy small
2) He hits lots of home runs

Now, I love grinder ball and all, but Home Runs, walks, and doubles > Sac Flies...right? Eh?

In addition, Adam Dunn striking out with the bases loaded and one out is probably better than Konerko GIDP in that same situation...

Wow, now that I look at it actually, PK GIDP only 9 times this year, compared to an average of around 20 the past six years. Nice job. Adam Dunn, oddly, has only GIDP on an average of 5-7 times his entire five years in the majors. Stupid, almost nonimportant point? Maybe. But it shows that he's not an absolute clod in runners on situations.

I'd gladly take Dunn over PK, especially when you factor in the relevant point of salary differences. PK = $12-15 per year / 3 years minimum. Dunn could be had for less and he's a younger player with possible upside. If a PK deal can't be worked out (hell, maybe if one can be, we need a DH), sign him up.

fquaye149
11-02-2005, 01:40 AM
OMG - I can't take this anymore. Are you serious? .248/.387/.540 And just entering his prime at age 26... And you say YUCK?

Way too many people are falling hook, line and sinker for this whole Grinder thing. Gang - that's marketing stuff. KW assembled the best team of baseball players he could find. It took a PK, an Everett, and a Dye. Those aren't GRINDERS. We need SOMEONE who can mash if we lose PK. I can't believe we have people touting Lyle Freaking Overbay and bashing Adam Dunn at 1B.

The problem with Dunn is which way does he go? Does he become Frank's successor, combining brutal power with an impeccable eye? Or does he become a fence swinger, someone who can smack 30 HR in a year and hit .240.

The sacrifice fly thing is overstated, but the fact is it raises red flags insofar as it shows an all or nothing approach. True, his all or nothing is at a very successful rate (38% of the time is nothing to sneeze at) but remember when Paulie used to be GIDPK? (He's not anymore - hooray!)....

There is nothing more maddening than RISP and DP's or K's. Honestly. Picking up Dunn would be a step back for this team, at least for the time being. He's a great prospect and has great tools, but he has a ways to go. OBP is more important than BA, but the .246 BA can NOT be ignored. Slice me to bits SABRheads, and probably rightly so, but Dunn's got a ways to go. A world of talent but a ways to go. And anyway - forget about it - the Reds won't part with the donkey.:D:

Banix12
11-02-2005, 01:58 AM
The problem with Dunn is which way does he go? Does he become Frank's successor, combining brutal power with an impeccable eye? Or does he become a fence swinger, someone who can smack 30 HR in a year and hit .240.

The sacrifice fly thing is overstated, but the fact is it raises red flags insofar as it shows an all or nothing approach. True, his all or nothing is at a very successful rate (38% of the time is nothing to sneeze at) but remember when Paulie used to be GIDPK? (He's not anymore - hooray!)....

There is nothing more maddening than RISP and DP's or K's. Honestly. Picking up Dunn would be a step back for this team, at least for the time being. He's a great prospect and has great tools, but he has a ways to go. OBP is more important than BA, but the .246 BA can NOT be ignored. Slice me to bits SABRheads, and probably rightly so, but Dunn's got a ways to go. A world of talent but a ways to go. And anyway - forget about it - the Reds won't part with the donkey.:D:

Yeah, I don't think the Reds are really looking to get rid of him, though certainly any team in their pathetic situation should listen to any reasonable offer (though they don't seem to be).

I think your fears in Dunn are well founded in logic and certainly I would like someone with a less all or nothing approach. However if the discussion is who would you rather have, Dunn or Overbay, the answer has to be Dunn in a landslide. Dunn might be a step back but Overbay would be a HUGE step back. So I can't understand all the love for Overbay but some people don't want Dunn because he isn't a "Grinder".

Hawk Harrelson
11-02-2005, 02:50 AM
YUCK

Ever see him try and hit a lefty? After a World Series Championship, why are we trying to settle for garbage that the Twins are happy to get rid of?

Jones was a core player on a team that won our division for three straight years. I gurantee you the Twins are not happy to get rid of him.

JUribe1989
11-02-2005, 06:51 AM
IMO if Konerko is not signed the best options to play first for us are Overbay or JT Snow. Both of them would come relatively cheap also. We need money to sign our pitchers long term or at least try.

buehrle4cy05
11-02-2005, 07:17 AM
I totally forgot about Adam Dunn, but if we get him and re-sign Frank, that leaves us 2 guys who probably won't hit .300 but will hit 40+ HRs and 2Bs. Pretty much they're the exact same type of player, except Dunn is a lefty and Thomas a righty. If we don't re-sign Frank AND Konerko, though, Dunn would be my #1 choice.

Frater Perdurabo
11-02-2005, 09:10 AM
The sacrifice fly thing is overstated, but the fact is it raises red flags insofar as it shows an all or nothing approach. True, his all or nothing is at a very successful rate (38% of the time is nothing to sneeze at) but remember when Paulie used to be GIDPK? (He's not anymore - hooray!)...

The reason Paulie used to GIDP so much more has less to do with him and more to do with who he was batting behind in previous years. Given Frank Thomas' high OBP, often due to the walk, from 1999-2004, Konerko got lots of ABs with Thomas (or Maggs or Lee for that matter) at first base. We all know that Frank is not the kind of guy who's going to steal a base or run on contact with less than two outs, and although Maggs had OK speed, neither he nor Lee was much of a threat to steal, either (especially during Jerry Manuel's "corpse ball" plan of station-to-station baserunning and waiting for the three-run homer.)

Paulie's approach at the plate has not changed. He still often hits the ball very hard toward third or short. He still gounds out a lot. However, in previous years, many of those groundouts came with Frank at first. Hence the great number of DPs.

In 2005, PK often batted with Pods standing at second base - and many times on third! He had far fewer opportunities to GIDP.

Jjav829
11-02-2005, 09:21 AM
IMO if Konerko is not signed the best options to play first for us are Overbay or JT Snow. Both of them would come relatively cheap also. We need money to sign our pitchers long term or at least try.

J.T. Snow? If we lose Konerko we need to replace him with someone that can equal his production. Moving Dye to 1B and putting Anderson in RF isn't the answer. Neither is J.T. Snow. And for that matter, while I do think they are good players, neither Lyle Overbay or Aubrey Huff is the answer. They are both good players but unless we're going to add Manny to DH, we need a bigger bat than Overbay or Huff at 1B. Does anyone actually think this is a good lineup...

Podsednik
Iguchi
Dye
(DH)
Snow
Rowand
Pierzynski
Crede
Uribe

We need at least one more big bat in that lineup. Ideally, I'd like to see a lineup next year that looks something like...

Podsednik
Iguchi
1B/DH
1B/DH
Dye
Pierzynski
Rowand
Crede
Uribe

Who the 1B and DH will be, I don't know. But it better not be J.T. Snow. And I don't want to hear about how Iguchi can bat 3rd and possibly hit 30 homers. :rolleyes:

Tragg
11-02-2005, 09:26 AM
So Overbay is a good defensive player with a little pop and a lot to prove. Tell me again why he wouldn't be a perfect fit for this team?
Because he has no power at a power position. And the Sox don't have compensating power at other positions, particularly since DH is a question. It's also the reason Helton isn't a good fit for this team (although I'd certainly prefer Overbay to Helton - cheaper, younger).

And that fact is, that looking at the landscape, to replace Konerko with an equal producer will cost more than signing Konerko. SO, either sign Konerko, or replace Konerko's production at another position: yet, that's hard to do to as Dye, I believe, was the best producing right fielder in the AL.

Boston and Toronto could have Olerud at first, because they were loaded elsewhere when they won WS. Otherwise, how many times did Mattingly or Mark Grace make the playoffs?

fquaye149
11-02-2005, 09:32 AM
The reason Paulie used to GIDP so much more has less to do with him and more to do with who he was batting behind in previous years. Given Frank Thomas' high OBP, often due to the walk, from 1999-2004, Konerko got lots of ABs with Thomas (or Maggs or Lee for that matter) at first base. We all know that Frank is not the kind of guy who's going to steal a base or run on contact with less than two outs, and although Maggs had OK speed, neither he nor Lee was much of a threat to steal, either (especially during Jerry Manuel's "corpse ball" plan of station-to-station baserunning and waiting for the three-run homer.)

Paulie's approach at the plate has not changed. He still often hits the ball very hard toward third or short. He still gounds out a lot. However, in previous years, many of those groundouts came with Frank at first. Hence the great number of DPs.

In 2005, PK often batted with Pods standing at second base - and many times on third! He had far fewer opportunities to GIDP.

That's all well and good but my point was that it was frustrating to see, no matter what the cause. Likewise will strikeouts with RISP, especially third.

One of the many reasons this year's team was successful seemed to be a lack of DP's and strikeouts in these situations compared to years past.

Randar68
11-02-2005, 09:33 AM
Ugh, I don't want to get into a whole thing here. So I'm not a FOLO (has a ring to it actually).

He's not a great fit because the white sox need power out of 1b and Overbay has never hit 20 HRs at any level of his development. He's Mark Grace with a lower career average. He's Ross Gload in Brewers clothing. He's like 1000 other AAA 1b. Why trade for a guy who we already basically have.

He might get a bit of a power boost playing at the Cell but not much. Miller Park is hardly a difficult place to hit.

Yep, the lovefest for Lyle Overbay stems from the FOBB and a few less-obsessed OBP fans.

Todd Helton, go get him. Thome, Delgado, sure. Resign Konerko, ok. However, if you're gonna go out and get Lyle Overbay, don't bother.

This team needs more consistent hitting/OBP and run production from the 3/4/5 spots in the order. Overbay isn't that kind of hitter, IMO, and agree, just sign one of those lesser 1B on the FA market instead. (Millar, Durazo, etc)

fquaye149
11-02-2005, 09:35 AM
J.T. Snow? If we lose Konerko we need to replace him with someone that can equal his production. Moving Dye to 1B and putting Anderson in RF isn't the answer. Neither is J.T. Snow. And for that matter, while I do think they are good players, neither Lyle Overbay or Aubrey Huff is the answer. They are both good players but unless we're going to add Manny to DH, we need a bigger bat than Overbay or Huff at 1B. Does anyone actually think this is a good lineup...

Podsednik
Iguchi
Dye
(DH)
Snow
Rowand
Pierzynski
Crede
Uribe

We need at least one more big bat in that lineup. Ideally, I'd like to see a lineup next year that looks something like...

Podsednik
Iguchi
1B/DH
1B/DH
Dye
Pierzynski
Rowand
Crede
Uribe

Who the 1B and DH will be, I don't know. But it better not be J.T. Snow. And I don't want to hear about how Iguchi can bat 3rd and possibly hit 30 homers. :rolleyes:

I don't want Snow, because if we wanted a slick fielding questionable bat we could just start Gload.

Overbay on the other hand is a big power dropoff, but OBP comparable to Konerko.

I would love to see Manny, but losing Carl at DH means that the power downgrade at 1B could conceivably be compensated for at DH, whether that means signing a big bat (although I think Paulie's the only real bat out there on the market) or trading for one. I doubt Manny's coming here to DH (much less coming here at all) but there are bats we could trade for.

Most likely if Paul doesn't come back we'll be losing net power when considering the DH and 1B we replace him and Carl with. However, it's a lucky thing they play the two easiest positions to replace in baseball - I trust Kenny to come up with a solution.

Jjav829
11-02-2005, 09:38 AM
Most likely if Paul doesn't come back we'll be losing net power when considering the DH and 1B we replace him and Carl with. However, it's a lucky thing they play the two easiest positions to replace in baseball - I trust Kenny to come up with a solution.

Ditto. The funny thing is that Kenny will probably do something none of us expect, though I guess we probably will have discussed every possible solution to the 1B/DH problem by the time the winter meetings start. :D:

Randar68
11-02-2005, 10:10 AM
(although I think Paulie's the only real bat out there on the market) or trading for one.

Brian Giles is the only real Free Agent bat worth signing for the #3/#4 holes other than Konerko. Again, haven't seen many articles about his preferences or expectations int he FA market, would love to make a run at him for the #3 hitter. Ideal for that position in our order and would likely hit 30-40 HR's in USCF with that stellar OBP and good defense.

Randar68
11-02-2005, 10:12 AM
Ditto. The funny thing is that Kenny will probably do something none of us expect, though I guess we probably will have discussed every possible solution to the 1B/DH problem by the time the winter meetings start. :D:

LOL! We know Kenny loves to trade and hasn't had as much success with the big name free agents, so we'll see how it goes. Only big name FA's other than Konerko the Sox should really be interested in are Furcal and Giles. Everyone else is a B or C-level FA (other than a few starters which the Sox can afford to ignore this year)

SoxFan76
11-02-2005, 10:31 AM
OMG - I can't take this anymore. Are you serious? .248/.387/.540 And just entering his prime at age 26... And you say YUCK?

Way too many people are falling hook, line and sinker for this whole Grinder thing. Gang - that's marketing stuff. KW assembled the best team of baseball players he could find. It took a PK, an Everett, and a Dye. Those aren't GRINDERS. We need SOMEONE who can mash if we lose PK. I can't believe we have people touting Lyle Freaking Overbay and bashing Adam Dunn at 1B.

Ok, hypothetical situation. Dunn is up with 1 out and men on 1st and 3rd. He rarely hits sac flies, so most likely that runner isn't going to score. He strikes out a ton and has a low average, so most likely that run isn't going to score on a groundout or base hit. Soooo basically if Dunn is up you're waiting for the 3 run home run. Does this sound familiar? Yes, it's the White Sox from 2003-2004. The most likely scenario would be Dunn walks and you have bases loaded for the next guy up. But Dunn is supposed to be a run producer. I don't get the love fest with Dunn. Ok, I do, but only if he was on a different team. Dunn is the complete opposite of what Ozzie wants for this team.

mdep524
11-02-2005, 11:41 AM
Also don't forget- Lyle Overbay is not going to come for free. The Brewers won't just give him away, they'll want something significant in return. No thanks. If we're going to trade away talent, make it for a no-doubter like Todd Helton. There's a guy that does everything, anywhere.

I wonder what the chances are of having Helton and Konerko in the same line up? Probably very small, since I can't see either one of them DHing right now (plus that would force the Big Hurt out of the picture).

fquaye149
11-02-2005, 01:46 PM
Also don't forget- Lyle Overbay is not going to come for free. The Brewers won't just give him away, they'll want something significant in return. No thanks. If we're going to trade away talent, make it for a no-doubter like Todd Helton. There's a guy that does everything, anywhere.

I wonder what the chances are of having Helton and Konerko in the same line up? Probably very small, since I can't see either one of them DHing right now (plus that would force the Big Hurt out of the picture).

They'll want talent but they won't want too much talent. The fact is they have the best 1B prospect in YEARS coming up in Prince Fielder. He put in his split-time dues at the end of this season and the Brewers don't want another season of that. Overbay is a lot like Konerko speedwise and therefore can NOT play any position but first base. Prince Fielder is Cecil Fielder's son minus 100-some pounds. It is VERY unlikely he would play anywhere but first base. The Brewers are also not going to let Overbay sit on the bench until he becomes a free agent (a la A-train Thomas). That is to say, Overbay will not play in Milwaukee next year. Bob Melvin WILL unload him.

The Brewers could always use young pitching. We have young pitching. They could use young outfield talent. We have young outfield talent. Heck, they could use young catcher talent. We have a widdddddle young outfield talent.

It's not going to be pulling teeth to get the Brewers to deal Overbay. Heck I would HAVE to assume Melvin will be willing to deal with Kenny after that cookie we gave them last season. Look for us to push HARD for Lyle if we can't sign Paulie.


Randar:

LOL! We know Kenny loves to trade and hasn't had as much success with the big name free agents, so we'll see how it goes. Only big name FA's other than Konerko the Sox should really be interested in are Furcal and Giles. Everyone else is a B or C-level FA (other than a few starters which the Sox can afford to ignore this year)

I don't want to give Kenny too much credit for something he hasn't proven himself in yet. However, the main obstacles he has had to overcome as a Sox GM as far as signing free agents is

a.) lack of money
b.) convincing people to come to the southside of chicago

I would assume this world series victory will help a lot both in getting payroll up and making the White Sox an attractive team to play for. Not to mention he has Ozzie who is increasingly garnering support among players (although that whole ex-Marlins/Venezuelan windfall never came through besides for Freddy). The fact is, we have already seen Manny piping up and saying he wants to play for Ozzie. This is probably just Manny being Manny but it seems to reflect a respect players have for Ozzie (no matter what Daver might say:D:) and the way we steamrolled through the playoffs can only help that.

Needless to say, talk remains cheap.

RESIGN PAULIE and make this all academic.:redneck

Mr. White Sox
11-02-2005, 03:16 PM
LOL! We know Kenny loves to trade and hasn't had as much success with the big name free agents, so we'll see how it goes. Only big name FA's other than Konerko the Sox should really be interested in are Furcal and Giles. Everyone else is a B or C-level FA (other than a few starters which the Sox can afford to ignore this year)

I agree, other than trades those are the only guys we should be looking at. I've been advocating getting Furcal for a while now, but more and more teams seem interested in him and he could command a large salary; he'll may want to play on the East Coast as well (rumors suck, but he supposedly said he'd play 2B for the Mets, which is lame). I completely forgot about Giles, yet he'd be a solid addition for a couple of years. He will get looks from the Cubs, Red Sox and others, but using him at DH would be awesome. If PK is resigned, Pods/Iguchi/Giles/Konerko/Dye is a great start to the lineup.

EDIT:
To me, Lyle Overbay is a massive copout. PK won so many games for us later on in the year by himself, and Overbay can't reproduce that production, no matter how many people think he can. Picking up Lyle Overbay equates to picking up guys like Sean Casey, and as others have mentioned Kevin Millar or Erubiel Durazo. They all have pretty good OBP and can hit a few out (well, not Casey), but the power loss is enormous. If PK can't get resigned, look for KW to push hard for either Giles or Furcal, or maybe a trade for Helton (not going to happen), Delgado or Dunn.

fquaye149
11-02-2005, 03:27 PM
EDIT:
To me, Lyle Overbay is a massive copout. PK won so many games for us later on in the year by himself, and Overbay can't reproduce that production, no matter how many people think he can. Picking up Lyle Overbay equates to picking up guys like Sean Casey, and as others have mentioned Kevin Millar or Erubiel Durazo. They all have pretty good OBP and can hit a few out (well, not Casey), but the power loss is enormous. If PK can't get resigned, look for KW to push hard for either Giles or Furcal, or maybe a trade for Helton (not going to happen), Delgado or Dunn.

It's better to cop a plea than be found guilty and serve life.

Look - what do you want Kenny to do if PK walks? Hold him down and tickle him until he resigns? If he's offered 15 mil, I'm sorry, you have to let him go.

The best option is to resign Paul, but let's be realistic - there's at least a chance that won't be possible.

maurice
11-02-2005, 04:49 PM
Keep in mind that, with Everett gone, it's a package deal. Arguing "Overbay < Konerko" misses the point. If Konerko walks, KW doesn't need to find a guy who will match his production at the 1B position. He just needs to make sure that he finds 2 guys who will combine to match (or exceed) the production of Konerko and Everett. I'm perfectly confident that he'll be able to pull that off, probably through a trade.

buehrle4cy05
11-02-2005, 05:10 PM
EDIT:
To me, Lyle Overbay is a massive copout. PK won so many games for us later on in the year by himself, and Overbay can't reproduce that production, no matter how many people think he can. Picking up Lyle Overbay equates to picking up guys like Sean Casey, and as others have mentioned Kevin Millar or Erubiel Durazo. They all have pretty good OBP and can hit a few out (well, not Casey), but the power loss is enormous. If PK can't get resigned, look for KW to push hard for either Giles or Furcal, or maybe a trade for Helton (not going to happen), Delgado or Dunn.

I think it's unlikely that KW will go after either Furcal or Giles. My gut feeling is is that KW is satisfied with Juan at SS, and the only way he would consider a push for Giles is if he traded Rowand in a deal for Helton, Delgado or Dunn, which would likely handcuff KW in a push for Giles, who will command a fairly high salary.