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View Full Version : Rob Neyer Weighs in on 06 Sox


FloridaSox
10-28-2005, 10:56 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/storycolumnist=neyer_rob&id=2206841

Key points:

1. Sox at same place as 2002 Angels...must bring in more talent to stay at top of game.
2. Run differential was 6th best in league and Sox will not go 35-19 in one run games next year.
3. OPS at four positions below league average--though acknowledges above average defense of Pods, Crede and Rowand.
4. Ken Williams is smart guy--the struggle will be between his head (get better players) and his heart (keep team intact).

I know you guys love to rip on Neyer so here is your chance.

veeter
10-28-2005, 11:02 PM
This is tame compared to the negative stuff that I know is coming. If before the 2005 season, the motto was "We don't care", then after winning the World Championship my thinking is, man, now we "REALLY don't care." So stick it Hynie birds.

zach074
10-28-2005, 11:02 PM
4. Ken Williams is smart guy--the struggle will be between his head (get better players) and his heart (keep team intact).

.
I couldn't agree more just thinking about braking this team apart makes me sad. :whiner: But i want to win more. :wink:

SoxFan64
10-28-2005, 11:06 PM
I couldn't agree more just thinking about braking this team apart makes me sad. :whiner: But i want to win more. :wink:

I agree with both statements. But when you think about it no team stays the same. Of the six Bulls championship teams only two were constants -- Michael and Scottie.

So yes some very memorable people from this team will not be with us in the spring of 2006. Still I have great faith in KW to find the right pieces next season as he did this season.

mcfish
10-28-2005, 11:07 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/storycolumnist=neyer_rob&id=2206841

Key points:

1. Sox at same place as 2002 Angels...must bring in more talent to stay at top of game.
2. Run differential was 6th best in league and Sox will not go 35-19 in one run games next year.
3. OPS at four positions below league average--though acknowledges above average defense of Pods, Crede and Rowand.
4. Ken Williams is smart guy--the struggle will be between his head (get better players) and his heart (keep team intact).

I know you guys love to rip on Neyer so here is your chance.1. I agree.
2. Sox were really good in 1 run games last year. I don't think it's all that unlikely they will repeat that stat.
3. Half of the players in the league are below league average. That doesn't mean they can't be winners. Also, Podsednik should not be judged by OPS. As long as he has a good OBP, he's a terrific asset to this team - moreso possibly than someone with a "above average" OPS.
4. Very True. The offense needs improvement to be more consistent, but there's not a player in the starting lineup after possibly Everett that I would personally want to see gone. There are a few I wouldn't mind an upgrade for, but none that have no redeeming qualities. Crede would be closest, and look what he did over the last 4 weeks. And what free agent 3B would be better anyway? After that, I guess it's Rowand, but I would hate to see him go.

bringfrankback
10-28-2005, 11:10 PM
Yeah, but when you think about it theres only a few memorable people from this team....Paulie, Crede, Uribe, Podsednik, Iguchi, Pierzynski, Rowand, Dye, Jenks, Cotts, Politte, Big Frank, Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, El Senor Tombalano, El Duque, Crazy Carl, Blum, Ozuna, Harris.............Oh Wait :(:



LETS GET THE JOB DONE KENNY!

Fuller_Schettman
10-28-2005, 11:15 PM
Well, one upgrade that is a foregone conclusion is the addition of McCarthy to the starting rotation. Definitely ROTY material!

El Duque replaces Vizcaino in the bullpen as a set up man. If Jenks blows up as a closer and Dustin's back cannot take it, you have a nice R/L closer combo with El Duque & Cotts. We saw this year that it is always nice to have 3 or 4 options for closer. :cool:

Replacing Everett with Thomas also surprises no one and will get us more run production.

If there is one other change to be made, it is moving Pods to CF and getting a corner outfielder, presumably via trade since the FA market is pretty thin (OR give Anderson his shot).

And I think that covers it.

Tragg
10-28-2005, 11:23 PM
Well, one upgrade that is a foregone conclusion is the addition of McCarthy to the starting rotation. Definitely ROTY material!

El Duque replaces Vizcaino in the bullpen as a set up man. If Jenks blows up as a closer and Dustin's back cannot take it, you have a nice R/L closer combo with El Duque & Cotts. We saw this year that it is always nice to have 3 or 4 options for closer. :cool:

Replacing Everett with Thomas also surprises no one and will get us more run production.

If there is one other change to be made, it is moving Pods to CF and getting a corner outfielder, presumably via trade since the FA market is pretty thin (OR give Anderson his shot).

And I think that covers it.
Viz did his job as basically the last man in the pen; he can do it again. Having him as the last man is remarkable depth. I don't know the contract status of all the players but Hermie and his back? Marte dealt perhaps? I agree with moving El D there, although he is a tad expensive as a set up man.

Pods doesn't seem right in CF to me. I'd be willing to go with Anderson if we are fixed with power at 1st, DH and a solid bench bat (which we really didn't have this year).

hose
10-28-2005, 11:28 PM
1. Sox have better starting pitching then the 2002 Angels.
2. 2006 Sox starting pitching will be even better with the addition of Brandon McCarthy for the 5th spot.

infohawk
10-28-2005, 11:38 PM
If there is one other change to be made, it is moving Pods to CF and getting a corner outfielder, presumably via trade since the FA market is pretty thin (OR give Anderson his shot).
What are you planning for Aaron or Dye???

fquaye149
10-29-2005, 12:50 AM
Let's not assume Thomas replacing Everett. That is very dangerous thinking.

If Frank is healthy for next year and stays healthy there is not a single better value on the market, and that includes, IMO, David Ortiz.

HOWEVER, at this point I am VERY wary about relying on Frank's health. I wish he would have 5 or more healthy seasons in a row...but the way things look, I'd be surprised if he put together 162 games played in the next five seasons combined. That would be v. sad, but for this reason, the issue of Konerko, Garland's arbitration, re-upping AJ, Gooch, Contreras, and Hermy, picking up a left-handed slugger, etc., this offseason will be a very complicated one for KW.

However, with the way our pitching looks (beautiful. Just plain beautiful) he's still in a very enviable position.

Banix12
10-29-2005, 01:05 AM
Let's not assume Thomas replacing Everett. That is very dangerous thinking.

If Frank is healthy for next year and stays healthy there is not a single better value on the market, and that includes, IMO, David Ortiz.

HOWEVER, at this point I am VERY wary about relying on Frank's health. I wish he would have 5 or more healthy seasons in a row...but the way things look, I'd be surprised if he put together 162 games played in the next five seasons combined. That would be v. sad, but for this reason, the issue of Konerko, Garland's arbitration, re-upping AJ, Gooch, Contreras, and Hermy, picking up a left-handed slugger, etc., this offseason will be a very complicated one for KW.

However, with the way our pitching looks (beautiful. Just plain beautiful) he's still in a very enviable position.

I'm wary of relying on Frank as well. It's been awhile since he has been able to put a full season together. If Frank comes back as the primary DH they had better sign another viable bat in case he goes down again, or else the sox are trading for Carl Everett again if he gets hurt.

I will say I agree with everybody here who is saying that the white sox pitching is superior to the 2002 angels pitching which should give the white sox a leg up. The only real questions being do you stick with Marte hoping he can regain 2003 form for yet another season and would El Duque be willing to move to the pen. He would be expensive out there but I think he is worth hanging onto if only because you often need an extra starter in case of injury and he seems to have a positive effect on Contreras.

Even before all this I thought the only real offensive upgrade that was completely necessary was a consistantly better DH. I actually like the rest of the team just fine. I'm in no rush to give Anderson a starting job, he can take over the Timo Perez fourth OF role frankly and work his way into the lineup that way. Certainly if Paulie leaves that creates another situation, but upgrade the DH and fix up the bench (the only bench players I really would want to retain would be Ozuna and Widger)

SoxSpeed22
10-29-2005, 01:29 AM
:hawk"Screw 'em!"
Back to the topic, a lot of our hitters had off years, especially Rowand and AJ. Iguchi can only get better. Crede can hopefully ride his postseason into a good season. The most pressure is on Pods, getting on and putting pressure on the opposing pitchers. Most of the bullpen had miracle years, so they might fall off next year. Another question is, what if Frank doesn't get healthy soon enough? And what about left handed hitting? Time will tell what happens this offseason.

FarWestChicago
10-29-2005, 01:50 AM
I worry about the sanity of everybody posting in this thread. First of all, the next intelligent thought Neyer has will be his first. Second, you have just been through the greatest sports experience you will ever have. Indeed, it's not over...unless you make it so. And you are... :rolleyes:

Fuller_Schettman
10-29-2005, 03:08 AM
I worry about the sanity of everybody posting in this thread. First of all, the next intelligent thought Neyer has will be his first. Second, you have just been through the greatest sports experience you will ever have. Indeed, it's not over...unless you make it so. And you are... :rolleyes:

No, it's not over. In fact, I wish there was a game tomorrow and the next day and the day after. And at my house, there will be! You just don't want it to end. I'll be watching these DVDs all winter. If you get some free time, stop by. Check out some Homebrew. Bring ode...

OEO Magglio
10-29-2005, 03:16 AM
UH OH ARE PYTHAGREON IS NOT THE STUFF OF WORLD CHAMPIONS.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner: :whiner: BREAK 'EM UP





:rolleyes:

Hendu
10-29-2005, 04:28 AM
Until Rob Neyer becomes a GM and builds a championship team :rolleyes: , I think I'll trust KW with the direction of the franchise.

Mr. White Sox
10-29-2005, 04:54 AM
UH OH ARE PYTHAGREON IS NOT THE STUFF OF WORLD CHAMPIONS.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner: :whiner: BREAK 'EM UP

:tealpolice:
:wink:

FloridaSox
10-29-2005, 07:20 AM
"Screw 'em!"
Back to the topic, a lot of our hitters had off years, especially Rowand and AJ. Iguchi can only get better. Crede can hopefully ride his postseason into a good season. The most pressure is on Pods, getting on and putting pressure on the opposing pitchers. Most of the bullpen had miracle years, so they might fall off next year. Another question is, what if Frank doesn't get healthy soon enough? And what about handed hitting? Time will tell what happens this offseason.

Your point about Rowand interests me. By 2007, Brian Anderson and Chris Young are going to be major league starters somewhere and both based on major league projections will be much better hitters than Rowand. Both also play outstanding defense. Will Pods and Rowand hold them off--that will be up to Sox management. Take a look at how Rowand K's are rising year by year...his tenure as a major leaguer may not having many years.

Mickster
10-29-2005, 10:48 AM
That would be v. sad, but for this reason, the issue of Konerko, Garland's arbitration, re-upping AJ, Gooch, Contreras, and Hermy, picking up a left-handed slugger, etc., this offseason will be a very complicated one for KW.

Konerko is the only real issue. We are assured of Garland for at least 1 more year as we are with AJ. Iguchi is signed and we also have an option for 07. Contreras and Hermanson are also on board next year as well.

Our SP looks great, particularly with McCarthy in the 5th spot. Timo and is $1M joke of a contract are gone. We need some versatile bench players and some work on the BP. Realistically, we need some re-tooling of the offense, but I don't want to think of that now for sentimental reasons. :smile:

fquaye149
10-29-2005, 12:16 PM
I worry about the sanity of everybody posting in this thread. First of all, the next intelligent thought Neyer has will be his first. Second, you have just been through the greatest sports experience you will ever have. Indeed, it's not over...unless you make it so. And you are... :rolleyes:

haha - west, you are right as usual. However, as you well know, most of us are pretty shaky in the sanity dpt. Me and my obsessive compulsive 3500 posts

jabrch
10-29-2005, 12:38 PM
Konerko is the only real issue. We are assured of Garland for at least 1 more year as we are with AJ. Iguchi is signed and we also have an option for 07. Contreras and Hermanson are also on board next year as well.

Our SP looks great, particularly with McCarthy in the 5th spot. Timo and is $1M joke of a contract are gone. We need some versatile bench players and some work on the BP. Realistically, we need some re-tooling of the offense, but I don't want to think of that now for sentimental reasons. :smile:

Our contract with AJ, as I understand it, was that we would not offer him arbitration this year. I think he is a FA, and I think we will work to sign him to a 3 year deal.

Black Sox
10-29-2005, 12:38 PM
I think Rowand could be out the door. We move Scotty to center and either Anderson or a player traded for into left.

I don't trust Frank to stay healthy either. My guess is some other team will offer him a better deal. We need to get one more big time bat. Either via DH or left field.

Konerko will be back.

I love the starting rotation. Maybe make some slight tweaking to the bullpen. I don't think we'll see too much turnover this year. Just a few adjustments. Anyone think Soriano is a viable option for us? One negative would be his defensive liability in the outfield and his unwillingness to play the outfield. But he seems like the type of player that could fit in on this team.

Banix12
10-29-2005, 05:00 PM
I think Rowand could be out the door. We move Scotty to center and either Anderson or a player traded for into left.

I don't trust Frank to stay healthy either. My guess is some other team will offer him a better deal. We need to get one more big time bat. Either via DH or left field.

Konerko will be back.

I love the starting rotation. Maybe make some slight tweaking to the bullpen. I don't think we'll see too much turnover this year. Just a few adjustments. Anyone think Soriano is a viable option for us? One negative would be his defensive liability in the outfield and his unwillingness to play the outfield. But he seems like the type of player that could fit in on this team.

I just don't see there being any great rush to push away Rowand. True his trade value is pretty good right now, but he's signed to a very reasonable contract for a few more years I think. The sox have the rights to Anderson and Young locked up for quite a bit and I don't see there being any rush to throw them in the fire as well.

Depth is a good thing. Throw Anderson in the Timo role, get him about 200-250 AB's next year as the primary backup OF and see if he can overtake Rowand while facing major league pitching. It also provides adequate protection if someone like Dye gets injured (or moves to first).

I guess I have just seen enough White Sox OF prospects crash and burn that I would rather be cautious and work him into the mix as opposed to trading a productive OF with a cheap contract so we can bring up a rookie. Why does it have to be either/or anyway, why can't the sox keep both for next year?

As for Soriano, I don't see it as a viable option. As you said, he won't play the OF and I don't think the white sox need him enough to trade for him

Flight #24
10-29-2005, 08:23 PM
Our contract with AJ, as I understand it, was that we would not offer him arbitration this year. I think he is a FA, and I think we will work to sign him to a 3 year deal.

I've seen reports in both papers citing AJ as arb-eligible. Of course, they're wrong so often that that doesn't mean much, but I haven't seen anything outside of WSI that says AJ wasn't to be offered arb. If so, that puts a pretty hard deadline on any negotiations with him, IIRC 12/10 or ala Maggs, there's no resigning him.

jabrch - not doubting you saw it, but where did you see this?

batmanZoSo
10-29-2005, 09:23 PM
I agree with both statements. But when you think about it no team stays the same. Of the six Bulls championship teams only two were constants -- Michael and Scottie.

So yes some very memorable people from this team will not be with us in the spring of 2006. Still I have great faith in KW to find the right pieces next season as he did this season.

Watching the playoffs in '04--the Houston/St. Louis series and the NY/Boston series--made me scared to think how incredibly far away we were from competing on that level. But KW took a team that wasn't even good enough to beat the Twins and turned it into a World Series winner. And not just a World Series winner, but a convincing, dominant one that was pretty much the best team in baseball all year (only being overtaken by the Cardinals at the end thanks to our August slide). So I'm pretty confident that he'll do what's right for this team. We aren't going to win that many 1-run games again. Sure this team is built to compete well in those close games, but luck plays a role when you win that many. We'll need to improve in some areas.

TaylorStSox
10-29-2005, 09:42 PM
I just don't see there being any great rush to push away Rowand. True his trade value is pretty good right now, but he's signed to a very reasonable contract for a few more years I think. The sox have the rights to Anderson and Young locked up for quite a bit and I don't see there being any rush to throw them in the fire as well.

Depth is a good thing. Throw Anderson in the Timo role, get him about 200-250 AB's next year as the primary backup OF and see if he can overtake Rowand while facing major league pitching. It also provides adequate protection if someone like Dye gets injured (or moves to first).

I guess I have just seen enough White Sox OF prospects crash and burn that I would rather be cautious and work him into the mix as opposed to trading a productive OF with a cheap contract so we can bring up a rookie. Why does it have to be either/or anyway, why can't the sox keep both for next year?

As for Soriano, I don't see it as a viable option. As you said, he won't play the OF and I don't think the white sox need him enough to trade for him

IMO, if you look at the overall value of every player in the line up, Rowand's the weakest link. His swing has become progressively longer. His lack of power is worries me. He doesn't bunt well. His defense is excellent, but CF defense at the Cell is somewhat overated due to our small gaps. When you factor that in with our OF prospect strength, Rowand's expendable. Anderson can step in right now. In fact, making him the 4th OF would be a big mistake. You don't bring up prospects to sit on the bench.

I'd look to package Rowand in a deal to land a LH bat. I'm not sure if the Marlins would be interested. They've definitely shown interest in Marte. They're going to move Delgado. They backloaded his contract to make a run last year. If we take on all of Delgado's contract, which isn't ridiculous considering his production, we may be able to land him for a combination of Rowand, Marte and prospects. He'd look tremendous in the 3 hole.

As I've stated before, landing any of one of Delgado, Giles or Thome would be my number 1 priority of the offseason, outweighing resigning PK.

Tragg
10-29-2005, 11:17 PM
I just don't see there being any great rush to push away Rowand. True his trade value is pretty good right now, but he's signed to a very reasonable contract for a few more years I think. The sox have the rights to Anderson and Young locked up for quite a bit and I don't see there being any rush to throw them in the fire as well.

Depth is a good thing. Throw Anderson in the Timo role, get him about 200-250 AB's next year as the primary backup OF and see if he can overtake Rowand while facing major league pitching. It also provides adequate protection if someone like Dye gets injured (or moves to first).
That's good idea to use anderson in the timo role.
On the other hand, one of the reasons Rowand has trade value is that his contract is so reasonable - we've got to either use or lose the minor leaguers, although they need more time and it's not impending, except Anderson. I'd think Rowand would only be traded if we need to to replace Konerko.
Need at least a little fresh blood every year.

Banix12
10-30-2005, 01:05 AM
That's good idea to use anderson in the timo role.
On the other hand, one of the reasons Rowand has trade value is that his contract is so reasonable - we've got to either use or lose the minor leaguers, although they need more time and it's not impending, except Anderson. I'd think Rowand would only be traded if we need to to replace Konerko.
Need at least a little fresh blood every year.

I just wonder if his trade value is high enough, even when combined with a marte or a couple prospects, to bring in an adequate enough replacement for Konerko. Most of the teams I can think of that have 1b available are pretty well set in the OF.

I think that while Rowand's trade value has risen, the two OF on the White Sox that probably have the highest trade value are Brian Anderson and Chris Young. Not that I feel either of those two should be traded, but the other GM's know about the potential of those prospects just as well as we do.

Rowand alone in a trade more than likely nets the sox a role player or two. Rowand, Marte and a couple prospects might get something good but those prospects would likely have to be top tier guys and would frankly be the focus of the trade. The thing though that teams are going to be asking for from the White Sox is not Rowand, it's going to be the pitching.

I think one season as a backup to get his feet wet in the majors would not be a bad thing. If he has a good season he can probably overtake Rowand and be the starter by midseason or at least by next year. If he's the 4th OF he'll probably though at least get a good half a season of AB's against major league pitching which I have to think will go a long way. I've seen plenty of other teams slowly work in younger players and it usually doesn't seem to be a problem.

Domeshot17
10-31-2005, 10:35 PM
HOWEVER, at this point I am VERY wary about relying on Frank's health. I wish he would have 5 or more healthy seasons in a row...but the way things look, I'd be surprised if he put together 162 games played in the next five seasons combined. That would be v. sad, but for this reason, the issue of Konerko, Garland's arbitration, re-upping AJ, Gooch, Contreras, and Hermy, picking up a left-handed slugger, etc., this offseason will be a very complicated one for KW.

Iguchi is under contract next year, so is Contreras

IMO, Garland will come to a deal quickly, he always has, and I think he signs for the neigborhood of around 6 million for 4 years. Hermanson should also be an easy re up, as his back will be a major issue so he would probably get a hometown increase in value

getting back to the article, I think Neyer is right. This guy picked us to win the central pre season, ONLY ESPN ""expert"" to do so.

going 35-19 in 1 run games involves some luck. The bullpen and defense are KEY issues to doing that, but sometimes it just doesn't go your way. I do not think we will drop off the table, but its a point well taken and no one knows until its over.

The 2002 Angels also had guys really step up Scott Speizio had a tremendous playoff run and then fell off the table, Crede has to come out and show he is ready to be a big time player. The Angels had young pitching step up ( Washburn, Lackey) and had some Vets. They had a strong bullpen. It is a good comparison, and it is not a knock.

Now I didnt read the entire article, so if it is a Sox knocker then sorry for the defense of Neyer, but going off those 4 points, its not a bad assumption. I mean, point 4, a lot of us were worried in august and september. Adding a real 5 hitter would be a BIG ASSET, because Carl proved to be very replacable.

The biggest thing is, We can not stand pat. We HAVE to upgrade this team. The Indians are for real, a completely legit team. They have an entire year under these kids belts, and saying none of them sophomore slump, we will have a dog fight on our hands, and we need to come ready for war a better team this year. Not as streakey.

IMHO, I think you jump on Manny wanting a new home. Give Them Anderson Marte El Duque and Gload and maybe Rogowski ( wouldnt need him with Paulie locked up and Manny DH) and take on 15 mil of the money. Push the payroll for around 85 mil, and be a perenial powerhouse, if we did that, we would control this entire city. I know you worry about the super star personalities, but Manny has always been a winner, and his team mates seem to love him. Let him have fun with the Media, but bring a Winning Attitude. I mean, so many of us fear the Redsox with a Konerko-Ortiz-Manny 1-2-3 punch, thats roughly 120 home runs and 400 rbis.

Manny-Konerko-Dye: 115 home runs and 340 rbis, would be the best 1-2-3 in Baseball.

and whoever said Rowand will have a short career in baseball, this man wont. His strike outs are up because pitchers have a better scouting report on the man. Now it is his turn to make the adjustments. He was a big worth ethic, a gold glover, and a big time arm. Timo Perez has stuck around this long with 1/10 the talent Rowand has. Ask the Yankees if they wouldnt want Rowand manning center field for the next 10 years.

MadetoOrta
10-31-2005, 10:54 PM
1. Re-sign Paulie
2. If not #1, go to Plan B. [Delgado, Helton]
3. Brian Anderson plays CF everyday. He's a 1st rounder from Arizona State with a higher ceiling than Rowand ever had and is a better fielder than Rowand.
4. Jerry Owens .331 average + 52 stolen bases should be given serious consideration as 4th outfielder. [Randar? Your thoughts on him]
5. McCarthy is the 5th starter on paper and 16-8 at end of the year. ROY
6. Extend Garland and Burls.
7. Upgrade bullpen
8. Be willing to package El Duque and Rowand for offensive help
9. DO NOT REPEAT THE MISTAKE OF '59 AND SELL AWAY THE FUTURE FRANCHISE PLAYERS OF THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX! Think what the '64 and '67 Sox would have done with Norm Cash, Johnny Callison and Earl Batty.

ENJOY! WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS!!:bandance: