View Full Version : BP issues a pseudo-mea culpa

Flight #24
10-27-2005, 12:24 PM
Interestingly enough, suddenly Joe Sheehan says Kw's improved a lot as a GM, but coincidentally, he "cant find" where he said that during the year....http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4572

The Sox are simply loaded with guys like Uribe, Joe Crede (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/credejo01.shtml) and Scott Podsednik (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/podsesc01.shtml) and Aaron Rowand (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/rowanaa01.shtml), guys with .260-odd EqAs who add a win or two with the glove. The only truly bad hitter in the lineup, relative to position, was DH Carl Everett (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/evereca01.shtml), and at least by Clay Davenport's numbers, only Iguchi was a below-average defender. This was a superior defensive team.

I'm not a subscriber, anyone with access got any more interesting quotes?

The Wimperoo
10-27-2005, 12:33 PM
From today's article
He's caught some breaks along the way--I don't think Dustin Hermanson (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hermadu01.shtml)'s year was predictable, just to name one--but overall, he hasn't gotten enough credit for his work. Of last year's pickups, I only liked Iguchi, and grudgingly, A.J. Pierzynski (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/pierzaj01.shtml).

From AL Central Preview
The White Sox are substituting activity for performance, which is one of the last steps before "unemployment" for a baseball management team. When signing Jermaine Dye (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/dyeje01.php) to a two-year deal is the good move of the winter, it's a very bad sign. Actually, that shorts the pickup of Tadahito Iguchi (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/IGUCHI00000000A.php), who was kind of a Japanese Ray Durham (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/durhara01.php). Keep in mind that Durham had his last healthy, effective season at 29; Iguchi turned 30 in December.

Carlos Lee (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/leeca01.php) is now Scott Podsednik (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/podsesc01.php). Frank Thomas (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/thomafr04.php) might be back in April, May or never. Aaron Rowand (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/rowanaa01.php) is presumably back, taking the place of the alien that played in his body last year. It's one thing to again hope that this is the year Joe Crede (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/credejo01.php) finds the keys; it's quite another to need it to be the case. The "small ball" concept should claim another victim this year. The pitching staff isn't going to make up for the falloff in runs scored. Freddy Garcia (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/garcifr02.php) and Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/buehrma01.php) are mid-rotation innings guys who get paid like aces. They head a rotation that's long on hope--not just one, but two Cubans with shaky recent track records exiled from the Bronx--and short on anything you can rely upon. The bullpen is better, with two legitimate studs at the back in Damaso Marte (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/marteda01.php) and Shingo Takatsu (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/takatsh01.php). Ozzie Guillen did an excellent job last year in funneling most of the relevant innings to his nine or so best pitchers, perhaps Guillen's signature skill aside from being quotable. It won't be enough to patch for what is going to be a bad offense.

That doesn't look like he is really high on Iguchi and no mention of AJ.

10-27-2005, 12:43 PM
This team's signature skill was run prevention

No kidding? Did a whole lot of digging to figure that one out, I'll bet. What tipped you off? I'll bet it was that they didn't allow a lot of runs. Look, dumbass, the only numbers that matter are the ones on the scoreboard.

Add in a pitching staff that ratcheted down its walks and home runs allowed, and you have a team that was very difficult to score off of, as the playoffs showed.

So, let me get this straight- don't walk anyone and don't give up homers and you can have success? I would have never guessed that was a formula for success, but Joe and his spreadsheet have shown me the light. I think I'll get two subscriptions to BP- I mean, that's twice the knowledge right?

I don't think Dustin Hermanson (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hermadu01.shtml)'s year was predictable, just to name one

Well, that's the second thing you have in common with my girlfriend. The first is that neither of you has ever watched a baseball game.

10-27-2005, 05:45 PM
Well, he has a "chat" session, I don't know if it's free. My favorite two questions:

Cris E (St Paul, MN): If you were a 'Stros fan sitting at the railing in Houston last night would you have mugged Uribe a little in the ninth? Nothing serious, just a serving of Bartman with a dash of "Not in my house".

Joe Sheehan: I was flabbergasted that he came up with that ball, given how deep it was in the stands. That's a free play for the people in those seats...people, how about some help?

Great play by Uribe. Maybe the best defensive play of the postseason.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/dot_gray.gifJoel (Washington, DC): Well, it's safe to say you won't be touting your 2005 White Sox write-up on the back of the 2006 Baseball Prospectus annual. Is it too early to draw any important analytical conclusions from their improbable championship? What are your immediate thoughts?

Joe Sheehan: Lots of questions in this vein, both here and in my inbox.

To address the question seriously...the real question the '05 White Sox raise for me is how to measure defensive improvement over an offseason. It's fairly simple to see how a team is going to improve/regress at the plate or on the mound, but when the Sox added a second center fielder and upgraded second base, giving them above-average defense at four spots and no worse than average gloves everywhere, I missed that.

Their pitchers became much better at throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park, to be sure, but it's that defensive improvement that drove the run prevention.

So the question becomes, how do we evaluate defensive improvements accurately across seasons? How do we see the next White Sox coming?

The other thing of note is lineups. The Sox had a worse offense in 2005, but because they put their limited OBP in front of their power, they were able to convert the components into runs. Compare the OBPs of their top two spots in 2004 and 2005, and you see where they made up some ground. So evaluating gains in that area should be part of the process.

We can always learn more.

:cool: Here's the link (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=149).

10-27-2005, 06:48 PM
According to my calculations any printout of a BP article has an 88% chance of becoming birdcage liner.