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View Full Version : White Sox vs. Astros - Postseason Statistics


elrod
10-20-2005, 12:24 AM
Both the White Sox and Astros have done things right in the post-season to get to the World Series. Both teams defeated the reigning pennant winner in their respective leagues, and both teams advanced without facing an elimination game. We know about the regular season stats comparing the two teams:

ERA
Astros: 3.51 (3.46 starters and 3.63 relievers)
White Sox: 3.61 (3.75 starters and 3.23 relievers)
Considering the DH, our 3.61 is actually quite a bit better than their 3.51.

OPS
Astros: .730
White Sox: .747

Neither are very impressive, but their lineup gets a slight edge because they have a pitcher batting. Overall, the teams match up pretty evenly in the regular season.

But what about the post-season? One should be careful judging statistics on 8 or 9 games, but it does give you a sense of who's hot and who's struggling. And here some interesting differences emerge.

ERA
Astros: 3.43
White Sox: 2.50
Given the DH, those numbers are even more impressive for the Sox. Quite simply, the White Sox pitchers this post-season have been MUCH stronger than the Astros. 3 of the 4 starters on the Sox have ERAs under 3. Only Oswalt has an ERA under 3 for the Astros.

OPS
Astros: .730
White Sox: .806

With the DH difference, these two numbers are fairly equal. But if you look at OPS with runners in scoring position, the difference is staggering.

OPS W/RISP
Astros: .738 (74 ABs)
White Sox: 1.081 (67 ABs)

CONCLUSION:
Though the regular season numbers are quite even, our post-season numbers in pitching and hitting are much stronger, especially in clutch situations. Clemens and Pettitte have been fairly mediocre in the post-season; Clemens has a 4.50 ERA and Pettitte has a 4.66 ERA. Only Oswalt has a 1.69 ERA after tonight. It's hard to compare bullpen numbers because White Sox relievers have only thrown 8 innings, and have a 0.00 ERA (compared with a 2.43 for Houston in 33.1 innings). Among Sox starters, Garland is 2.00, Buehrle is 2.81, Contreras is 2.88, and Garcia is 3.21. And that includes games against the Red Sox, the best hitting team in baseball (and healthy too, unlike St. Louis). As for hitters, the only really tough outs for Houston have been Berkman (1.119 OPS), Burke (1.271 OPS) and Lamb (.924 OPS); nobody else is higher than .800. On the Sox, AJ is at 1.000 OPS, Konerko at .961, Podsednik at .959, Crede at .871 and Uribe at .857. Our biggest hole has been Everett (.561), and their worst is the other Everett (.631). Overall, I'd take our starters and our hitters against theirs based on their recent performance. As for the bullpen? Who knows, but it's hard to beat a 0.00 ERA.

IronFisk
10-20-2005, 01:30 AM
Whoa! Nice work.

Still...rip 'em a new one! :supernana:

34 Inch Stick
10-20-2005, 07:58 AM
I really cannot put much stock in comparative postseason stats. There is a huge difference in the teams that each has played and the anomaly of the 18 inning game skews both hitting and pitching stats.

However, it is good to see an objective breakdown on the series, so thank you.

elrod
10-20-2005, 08:26 AM
I really cannot put much stock in comparative postseason stats. There is a huge difference in the teams that each has played and the anomaly of the 18 inning game skews both hitting and pitching stats.

However, it is good to see an objective breakdown on the series, so thank you.

Of course you have to take post-season stats with a grain of salt. But I think they show who's hot and who's struggling lately. And in some cases, they show some hidden injuries. Why is Morgan Ensberg struggling? He had 36 home runs, but none in the post-season. Apparently he got hit on the hand with a pitch late in the season and hasn't had any power since. And what's up with Carl Everett? He's continuing a slump that he had in September. Jermaine Dye has been unimpressive on the power side, though he's had a fair number of hits. And is it any surprise that Crede and Uribe are hitting so well, considering how strong they finished in September? Same for Willy Tavarez in Houston. These numbers indicate recent trends, not overall ability. And while the opponents were different, they were all good. The Red Sox had the best lineup in baseball, and the Angels had one of the top ERAs in the American League. The Braves had the top power hitter in the NL and the Cardinals had the probable Cy Young award winner. But both the Cards and Angels had some injuries that hobbled them. The loss of Al Reyes, and Reggie Sanders and Abraham Nunez after Game Two really hurt the Cardinal lineup. Missing Bartolo Colon certainly helped. And the hidden injury to Vladmir Guerrero clearly slowed him down. Then there are the numbers don't seem to make much sense. How is it that Craig Biggio, who hit .231 in September (and .245 in August) is hitting .313 in October? Chris Burke hit .250 in September and .244 in August (though he only started on occasion). Overall these numbers at least show who's getting the job done when it matters.

voodoochile
10-20-2005, 08:58 AM
Interesting look at the two teams.

I've always considered the DH rule to be a big advantage for the AL team because while neither team expects their pitcher to do well, NL teams rarely have a hitter as good as an AL DH riding the bench. Games in AL parks should give a decent advantage to the AL squad for the most part.

Of course if Everett doesn't start hitting that is moot...

daveeym
10-20-2005, 10:24 AM
Interesting look at the two teams.

I've always considered the DH rule to be a big advantage for the AL team because while neither team expects their pitcher to do well, NL teams rarely have a hitter as good as an AL DH riding the bench. Games in AL parks should give a decent advantage to the AL squad for the most part.

Of course if Everett doesn't start hitting that is moot...I also think it gives the AL teams bullpens the advantage as well. While there is no need for double switches and pinch hitting for the pitcher, you need a much deeper bullpen in the AL which the Sox clearly have.

The AL pens are going to be more versatile since they don't need to be pulled while hitting at the end of a game. Where in the NL there's at least 2 pitchers in that pen that would never get the opportunity to pitch more than an inning except in blowouts and other rare situations.