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View Full Version : Let's get this out of the way


elrod
10-16-2005, 11:30 AM
I am as confident in a victory tonight as anybody else. But as a Sox fan, I always worry. Is 3-1 really insurmountable? Well no, of course not. So let's look at the few times teams have rallied back from 3-1 in an LCS.

2004 Red Sox: Boston had one of the best pitching staffs in recent memory, with Lowe, Pedro and Schilling. Once they got to Rivera in the 9th inning of Game Four, they knew they had the pitching to stay in the game, and the unbelievable and hot hitting of Ortiz to keep them going.

2003 Marlins: The first 5 games were real shoot-outs. But Florida had Beckett for Game Five, and as strong as Prior and Wood were that post-season, the Marlins hitters were on fire. It is no surprise that they opened up for 8 runs after the Gonzalez error in Game Six. The only pitcher's duels were Games 3 and 5, and in Game 3, both bullpens collapsed. The series was quite unpredictable, even through Game Five.

1996 Braves: The Braves fell behind in the NLCS to the Cardinals because of a bullpen collapse in Game Four. But they were one of the top offensive teams in the league, and they destroyed the Cardinals the next three games. It was as if the Brave hitters took it easy through Game Four, figuring 3 runs was enough to win and then the Cards got 4 in the 7th and 8th inning to take the lead, and the Braves said, "Whoa. We need more than that."

1986 Red Sox: Boston lost Game Four in a heartbreaker, giving up 3 in the 9th to tie it, with the Angels winning in the 11th. The 9th inning of Game Five will forever be one of the craziest innings ever (Henderson's HR off Moore), but the series was somewhat of a seesaw before that. They traded blow-outs in Games One and Two, the Angels won a good pitcher's duel in Game Three, and then the late win in Game Four. After Game Five, the Red Sox killed the Angels back in Boston.

1985 Royals (twice): KC came back from 3-1 twice. In the LCS and WS. We all know about Denkinger in the WS, but what about the LCS? KC lost a heartbreaker in Game Two (had a 5-4 lead in the 10th but lost) and Game Four (Had a 1-0 lead in the 9th and lost 3-1). Danny Jackson threw a shutout in Game Five and the Royals won the next two on the road with strong pitching from Gubicza and Saberhagen.

So, in each case where a team came back in the LCS from a 3-1 deficit, one of two things had already happened. The hitting was red hot and it was a seesaw battle. And two, there were some heartbreaking bullpen collapses that led to the 3-1 lead. Just as the momentum swung one way on a late-inning thriller, it swung the other the next game.

The White Sox situation is very different from all of these. Though Game Two was decided in the 9th, the White Sox were never trailing. None of the games changed on late inning collapses by the Angel bullpen. But more important, none of the other teams down 3-1 were as bad at the plate as the Angels are. In none of the other cases had the team up 3-1 had dominant pitching up to that point. I don't think it's likely that the Angels will be able to turn the momentum around because momentum isn't really what's given the Sox a 3-1 lead. Dominant pitching has. And unless the bad old Contreras comes back, and Buehrle and Garland forget how to pitch, it looks like the Angels will have a lot of trouble getting back in it.

harwar
10-16-2005, 11:33 AM
There is not the least little doubt in my mind that we can beat the angels for many reasons.I just wish that it is was going to happen right here at home.