View Full Version : BP Playoff Gems
10-10-2005, 01:11 AM
My Daily BP email (which is the roadhouse of my inbox) ends sometime soon (I hope). I am cleaning out a few weeks worth scanning to see if they say something more stupid then they usually do about the White Sox.
Also BP is having a pizza / baseball discussion on Thursday in Wrigleyville - you can call the Giordano's on Belmont if interested since so many White Sox fans are dying to learn at the feet of such brilliant baseball minds.
Post 1 - Nate Silver's White Sox vs. Red Sox analysis & prediction - The highlights:
Jose Contreras is going to start Game One on Tuesday, which puts him in the critical position of also being the potential Game Five starter. That's an understandable decision; Contreras outpitched Mark Buehrle down the stretch, and Buehrle would be pitching on short rest, having made the start on Friday. It's also the wrong decision. Buehrle is pretty clearly the best pitcher on either staff; he's given up 35 fewer walks than Contreras this season, and three fewer home runs, despite having pitched 30 more innings. He's also pitched particularly well at U.S. Cellular Field, where he's limited opponents to a .269 OBP--critical at a ballpark that can play like Coors Field Midwest. The easiest road to a White Sox victory would seem to be having two of the five games be Mark Buehrle starts at The Cell; I suppose you can credit Guillen with pluck for starting him on Friday and making life hard for the Indians, but setting up the playoff rotation should have been the priority.....
I'll confess to having some affection for both of these clubs, although in different ways; the White Sox are like the erratic second cousin who shows up at family reunions every five years and eases the burden by getting blisteringly drunk with you, while the Red Sox are the Connecticut aunt who can be intolerably smarmy at times but provides really good Christmas gifts and turkey dinners. I do think it would be a mistake to dismiss the White Sox as the Luckiest Team on the Face of the Earth, and conclude that the series is a gimme. Yes, according to our Adjusted Standings (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php), the White Sox only have 87-win talent, but the Red Sox check in at just 91 wins by that metric, a difference that can almost be made up for by home-field advantage alone. Still, the matchups favor the Red Sox. The White Sox' problem against right-handed pitching is the most important factor, but the Red Sox' success against finesse pitching staffs is another, as is the White Sox giving away too many easy outs to take advantage of Boston's marginal bullpen. I think Chicago wins Game Two with Buehrle going, and Game Three against David Wells, but the Red Sox take the other three with their superior hitting, and perhaps Bobby Jenks coming up short in a critical situation. Red Sox in 5.
10-10-2005, 01:24 AM
by Joe Sheehan
White Sox vs. Red Sox
The team with the best record in the American League gets so little respect that not only do oddsmakers have them as a small underdog to the AL's wild-card team, but the final BP Hit List slots them five rungs behind the team they beat out in the Central, the Indians. That looks weird, but the fairer Sox don't have quite the underlying performance of a 99-win team. They were an MLB-best 35-19 in one-run games, which helped them to post an actual record eight games better than their Pythagorean projections. Go a bit deeper, and you find that the Sox were likely an 87-win team that had one of those years.
The core challenge in this series is the White Sox pitching and defense trying to keep the Red Sox from hanging four-spots on them. The White Sox cannot win games in this series if they need five or more runs to do so. They don't put enough runners on base and they're prone to wasting outs when they do. So it's up to the pitching, and the underpublicized defense, and that could well be enough. The Jose Contreras (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/contrjo01.shtml) matchup in Game One is unfortunate, as Contreras is exactly the kind of pitcher the Sox can expoit for deep counts and extra baserunners. They have an edge in that matchup, and they must take advantage of it to pick up a win. After that, they'll be facing three straight pitchers who do a fairly good job of limiting walks and home runs. Their defense does a great job on balls in play, so they have the tools to limit the Red Sox' great offense.
This may come as a surprise to those of you who have been reading me all season, but I'll take the White Sox in five. They'll throw enough strikes and make enough plays to keep the Sox from putting up lots of crooked numbers, while taking advantage of the Sox' mediocre pitching to score just enough to win. I'd like them a lot more if it were Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/buehrma01.shtml) starting today, though.
I really don't have to say much - this guy is a drillrod to the 10th degree.
He picked the White Sox to CYA as his sorry ass has been wrong all season.
BP still has the Indians ranked ahead of the White Sox. Sounds like "fuzzy math" to me.
10-10-2005, 01:26 AM
BP nails another one.
...the White Sox are like the erratic second cousin who shows up at family reunions every five years and eases the burden by getting blisteringly drunk with you, while the Red Sox are the Connecticut aunt who can be intolerably smarmy at times but provides really good Christmas gifts and turkey dinners.
Oh, I love this game! Let me try...
BP is like that friend who thinks he/she knows everything but is really just too stubborn to admit that he/she might be wrong and is rarely challenged because few people care to put up with the idiotic arguments that come about when he/she is forced to defend himself/herself.
10-10-2005, 01:37 AM
October 6, 2005
Props for the Ozzeroo
by Rany Jazayerli
In the interest of full disclosure, I must preface what I'm about to say with the admission that I do not like the Chicago White Sox.
No, let's try that again. I loathe the White Sox. Despise them. Can't stand them. It's a hatred that was forged in the late '80s and early '90s, when Hawk Harrelson divided the baseball world into good guys and bad guys (and I rooted for the bad guys), when a team named for the color of snow decided to make their dominant color the color of pitch. Everyone needs a rival to hate, and for me that was the team in Chicago that played in a ballpark named after a skinflint, a ballpark they replaced with a new one that was hopelessly outdated barely a year after it opened.
If it was possible to hate them any more than I already did, I hate them even more in the Ozzie Guillen era. They now have a manager even more annoying than their TV announcer, a manager who seems to perpetually be one pointed question away from starting a fistfight in a press conference.
Sounds like BP's unanimous regarding the White Sox.
He does go on a bit more than explains in about 500 words what could be explained in a few why he is giving the man and team he hates "props":
Ozzie brought in Jenks for the final two innings of Game 2 even though most managers do not do this with their closers anymore and thus Ozzie gets props.
Can I get my money back? (Definitely no teal).
10-10-2005, 01:47 AM
Sometimes, logic just does not (http://www.ashleesimpsonmusic.com/) apply.Orlando Hernandez (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hernaor01.shtml) was a most unlikely candidate to ice (http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/icecube/youknowhowwedoit.html) the Red Sox season. He is a flyball pitcher who was brought into a situation that demanded a ground ball, on a day when the wind was turning fly balls into home runs and Monster shots. He was brought in despite the third-best reliever (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=11744) of 2005 being available and warmed up. Somehow, this worked, and now people are standing up and applauding Ozzie Guillen for it. Guillen did a good job in this series, but this was not one of his finer moments. Guillen claimed afterward that he chose Hernandez because of his experience. To his credit, El Duque dismissed this notion outright, saying that "It's all about situations." (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=wojciechowski_gene&id=2183947)
The bottom line is that the Red Sox did not execute. Looking at the Expected Run Matrix (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php) chart, the Red Sox should have expected 2.31 runs to score in the sixth. They might have settled for the .31.
A picture tells 1,000 words (well 1,001 if you have a word in it).
Red Sox 5.31 White Sox 5
(You can't make this **** up if you ****ing tried).
10-10-2005, 02:23 AM
Ah, one wonders how their predictions go wrong. Oh yeah, they never watched a white sox game all season and they base all their knowledge of the white sox from
1) players reputations before coming to the sox
2) numbers and a model that skews heavy toward teams that follow the type of baseball they promote on their site
3) personal bias.
Up until right before the series Joe Sheehan was on Hot List and was proclaiming up and down that Contreras was a "two pitch pitcher" that a patient team would destroy and he should be in the bullpen. Obviously the guy hadn't watched him the whole second half and was basing his assessment on his old rep and all the numbers he amassed as a Yankee.
10-10-2005, 10:33 AM
Wow. This stuff is so ridiculous is actually borders on dementia.
How could anyone, anywhere take these guys the least bit seriously?
10-10-2005, 10:43 AM
My model says the White Sox suck. The fact that they don't is evidence that luck exists.
My mother also tells me that I'm incredibly attractive. The fact that I still can't get a date is therefore evidence that women are incredibly stupid and again - that luck exists.
I also picked the winning lottery numbers last week. The fact that they pulled different numbers than mine is further evidence that bad luck exists. Therefore I conclude that my Dodge Neon is in actuality, a Ferrari.
And yes, that's explicitly not in teal.
10-10-2005, 11:01 AM
The dementia around here is the obssesiveness some Sox fans have in indulging their martyr complex.
10-10-2005, 11:37 AM
Thank god the Duke didnt allow those 2.31 runs to score, how could we have come back down 1.31 runs. :o:
Honestly, this is the dumbest stuff I've ever read. Lets use a freaking chart to tell us how many games the white sox should have won. BP is the worst website on the internet.
Ol' No. 2
10-10-2005, 12:09 PM
What do you expect from a team that only won 88% of a division title?:rolleyes:
10-10-2005, 12:37 PM
by Rany Jazayerli
I've read pieces by this idiot before, he's a big KC Royals fan. Why a KC fan wastes energy hating any team except the Royals is beyond me.
10-10-2005, 03:15 PM
The dementia around here is the obssesiveness some Sox fans have in indulging their martyr complex.:whiner: :whiner: :whiner:
Keep crying, FOBB!! :redneck
Worship me, knave!!
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