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View Full Version : Postseason Odds - Yes the White Sox are Underdogs


SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 03:45 PM
For information purposes only

Boston Red Sox - 150 for the series
Chicago White Sox is + 130

(meaning you need to bet $150 to win $100 on Boston or $100 to win $130 on Chicago).

New York is a -145 favorite over Anaheim (+125)

Houston is a -120 favorite over Atlanta (Pk)

St. Louis is a -400 favorite over San Diego (+300)

St. Louis is the only higher seed with home field advantage who is favored.

In a short series anything can happen. I like all three underdogs and no wager on the St. Louis series.

HotelWhiteSox
10-03-2005, 03:48 PM
Both the White Sox and Angels being an underdog is a joke, but whatever. These are people that have never seen a Sox game, agree to media generalizations about them, and judge the current Yankee and Red Sox team from their 'auras' and performances of past years, which is stupid!

WinOrDyeTrying
10-03-2005, 03:48 PM
Well they are the defending champs. Gotta give it to them. Anyways, as its been pointed out, the Sox play better as underdogs.

Ol' No. 2
10-03-2005, 03:58 PM
For information purposes only

Boston Red Sox - 150 for the series
Chicago White Sox is + 130

(meaning you need to bet $150 to win $100 on Boston or $100 to win $130 on Chicago).

New York is a -145 favorite over Anaheim (+125)

Houston is a -120 favorite over Atlanta (Pk)

St. Louis is a -400 favorite over San Diego (+300)

St. Louis is the only higher seed with home field advantage who is favored.

In a short series anything can happen. I like all three underdogs and no wager on the St. Louis series.Once again...:rolleyes:

Odds do not refect the expectations of the bookmakers. They don't care who wins - they make money either way. They reflect the action. It just means they're getting heavy betting on NY, Boston and Houston, and they need to skew the odds to get more people to bet on the other teams.

nebraskasox
10-03-2005, 04:00 PM
I'd rather be the underdog. The Sox have thrived on it all year. Everyone said we were choking and the Tribe was unbeatable. I hope we are underdogs right through the WS. I look forward to what I hope is explaining away the Sox championship, e.g., this was a down year for the Yanks & Boston (ya right, 95 wins), the Angels were hurt, the best team doesn't always win, etc. etc.

SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 04:04 PM
Once again...:rolleyes:

Odds do not refect the expectations of the bookmakers. They don't care who wins - they make money either way. They reflect the action. It just means they're getting heavy betting on NY, Boston and Houston, and they need to skew the odds to get more people to bet on the other teams.

I agree odds reflect action but the bookmakers / gamblers are not stupid (the initial gamblers who bet the line as it comes up - not some yahoo in a cubs or red cubs or Lakers jersey betting on his favorite team). The only people who have more information than the oddsmakers are possibly the team itself (and sometimes Vegas knows the information first).

I agree on paper and based on my analysis the White Sox should be slight favorites over Boston.

HotelWhiteSox
10-03-2005, 04:06 PM
Well they are the defending champs. Gotta give it to them. Anyways, as its been pointed out, the Sox play better as underdogs.

That is lame imo, this team has nothing to do with last year's team. A completely different pitching staff that looks a lot different without Foulke at the end of the line, and some changes in a couple of position players.

Ol' No. 2
10-03-2005, 04:08 PM
I agree odds reflect action but the bookmakers / gamblers are not stupid (the initial gamblers who bet the line as it comes up - not some yahoo in a cubs or red cubs or Lakers jersey betting on his favorite team). The only people who have more information than the oddsmakers are possibly the team itself (and sometimes Vegas knows the information first).

I agree on paper and based on my analysis the White Sox should be slight favorites over Boston.But it's the yahoos that get their information from ESPN who make up the large share of the bettors and who drive the odds.

PaleHoseGeorge
10-03-2005, 04:19 PM
But it's the yahoos that get their information from ESPN who make up the large share of the bettors and who drive the odds.

Exactly. There is no news here that Boston is favored because there is more action on the Red Sox than the White Sox. Their fan base is bigger and it's the betting fans who the bookmakers profit from.

This is precisely the opposite situation from 2 weeks ago when the Sox had short odds for reaching the postseason while Boston had longer ones. This was newsworthy because even Vegas couldn't deny the long odds Boston (and others) needed to get in vs. the Sox. Of course explaining these facts to the panic-stricken pessimists and Dark Clouds on this message board was completely futile...

Here's a prediction: if the Sox meet the Yankees in the ALCS, the Sox will be dogs in Vegas again. The Sox could wipe out Boston 3-straight by a combined score of 130-3 and it wouldn't make any difference. Bookmakers make odds based on the action, and the Sox simply don't get as much as Bos/NYY.

SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 04:20 PM
But it's the yahoos that get their information from ESPN who make up the large share of the bettors and who drive the odds.

Well No 2 I agree with you that between the time the line comes out and the time the game starts many yahoos do in fact wager without a clue. And I do agree a portion of the wagering line is based on the perception of what the bettors will think, the following of a team, etc.

In Vegas a Lakers or 49ers (well at least when they were good) or even Yankees or Dodgers team will be slightly higher favorites based on the fact the sports book knows they will get more action than if they were the Montana Lakers or the Nebraska 49ers, etc based on the heavy LA based crowd (on weekends).

I do agree that outside of injuries the line movement is mainly due to people who follow the herd.

But I don't agree the odds hold no relevance - especially the opening odds and the early action by those who bet tens of thousands early looking for a weak line. This business is worth millions of dollars and the people with the most information (the house and the few professional gamblers who make a consistant profit) take this very seriously.

I didn't want to get into a debate on the merits of gambling or encourage it in any way. I just wanted to provide the opening odds so that people knew what they were and why the usually clueless media will say everywhere with glee that we are the underdogs.

After reviewing all the information I think they will be mistaken. Baseball and Hockey are they only two sports I have made a lifetime profit on (football the lines are too good after week 3 and basketball is nonsense). I only wager on Vegas trips now but if I was there I would take the three underdogs and I think would win at least two of three series.

Also for Game 1 the White Sox opened as a -125 favorite at the Stardust (where the line is made) and the early action made the line -110 White Sox so take that for what is is worth.

SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 04:29 PM
Exactly. There is no news here that Boston is favored because there is more action on the Red Sox than the White Sox. Their fan base is bigger and it's the betting fans who the bookmakers profit from.

I think you are overestimating the dollar volume wagered based on a fan base. I agree that many casual bettors will bet small amounts on "their" team no matter what but a vast majority of the dollars are bet by people who really don't follow either team or give a rats ass who wins with the exception for who they wager on.

You know from soccer punters some people will bet on their team no matter what, some people will bet on any team on TV just to have action but the serious money will come from the most knowledgeable gamblers.

A large fan base will affect the odds along the margins.

Also I have never been pessimistic about the White Sox since last November after a 4th disappointing season but I regained optimism after the great acquisitions Kenny Williams made and have been cheerful and never nervous all season long. I like the White Sox chances to win it all, not just of beating the Red Cubs.

Go White Sox!!

PaleHoseGeorge
10-03-2005, 04:32 PM
I think you are overestimating the dollar volume wagered based on a fan base. I agree that many casual bettors will bet small amounts on "their" team no matter what but a vast majority of the dollars are bet by people who really don't follow either team or give a rats ass who wins with the exception for who they wager on.

You know from soccer punters some people will bet on their team no matter what, some people will bet on any team on TV just to have action but the serious money will come from the most knowledgeable gamblers.

A large fan base will affect the odds along the margins.

Also I have never been pessimistic about the White Sox since last November after a 4th disappointing season but I regained optimism after the great acquisitions Kenny Williams made and have been cheerful and never nervous all season long. I like the White Sox chances to win it all, not just of beating the Red Cubs.

Go White Sox!!

I think you're overestimating how much action is placed on baseball games, period. When was the last time you got an office secretary to buy a square on Game 7 of the World Series?

This isn't the NFL. Not even close.

And yes, the fans of the two teams involved is where most of the betting interests lie.

Ol' No. 2
10-03-2005, 04:34 PM
I think you are overestimating the dollar volume wagered based on a fan base. I agree that many casual bettors will bet small amounts on "their" team no matter what but a vast majority of the dollars are bet by people who really don't follow either team or give a rats ass who wins with the exception for who they wager on.

You know from soccer punters some people will bet on their team no matter what, some people will bet on any team on TV just to have action but the serious money will come from the most knowledgeable gamblers.

A large fan base will affect the odds along the margins.

Also I have never been pessimistic about the White Sox since last November after a 4th disappointing season but I regained optimism after the great acquisitions Kenny Williams made and have been cheerful and never nervous all season long. I like the White Sox chances to win it all, not just of beating the Red Cubs.

Go White Sox!!I think you're wrong on this. The small bettors, because of their large numbers, actually make up most of the total dollars bet. The number of people placing large bets is very small. It's not just fans of a particular team, but anyone who gets most of their information by watching ESPN.

The people who run the book are not gambling. They don't care in the slightest what the true odds of winning are.

SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 04:36 PM
I think you're overestimating how much action is placed on baseball games, period. When was the last time you got an office secretary to buy a square on Game 7 of the World Series?

This isn't the NFL. Not even close.

And yes, the fans of the two teams involved is where most of the betting interests lie.

While baseball doesn't get the action the NFL gets, they do get significant action on the playoffs and World Series.

I don't agree with you on the fan bases driving up wagering. Usually they cancel each other out. I think you are underestimating the size of the White Sox fan base - just because the media goes on about the Red Sox and Yankees doesn't mean anyone outside of the Northest cares about them outside of transplants. Most of the fans of the 28 other teams were just as disgusted being force fed New York and Boston all season as we were.

peeonwrigley
10-03-2005, 04:36 PM
For information purposes only


St. Louis is a -400 favorite over San Diego (+300)

St. Louis is the only higher seed with home field advantage who is favored.

In a short series anything can happen. I like all three underdogs and no wager on the St. Louis series.

Mercy, -400 is huge for the playoffs. I'm way too risk-adverse to take that one, even though it seems StL would be a lock.

Ol' No. 2
10-03-2005, 04:41 PM
While baseball doesn't get the action the NFL gets, they do get significant action on the playoffs and World Series.

I don't agree with you on the fan bases driving up wagering. Usually they cancel each other out. I think you are underestimating the size of the White Sox fan base - just because the media goes on about the Red Sox and Yankees doesn't mean anyone outside of the Northest cares about them outside of transplants. Most of the fans of the 28 other teams were just as disgusted being force fed New York and Boston all season as we were.Other fans may be disgusted, but they'll bet on who they think is going to win, and as long as they get most of their information from John Kruk and Peter Gammons, who are they going to bet on? And who do you think makes up most of the Atlantic City action?

DaleJRFan
10-03-2005, 04:42 PM
The Sox may be the underdogs via the national media, but baseball FANS across the country have us in the World Series. I lurk on a lot of the other team's fanboards like WSI, and the vast majority of the posters have the Sox taking the AL Pennant.

Take it for what its worth, but I don't think that the educated baseball fans around the US buy into the ESPN bull****. Even boards like Baltimore, Florida, Cinci, are not only picking the Sox, but are pulling for them to dethrone the RedSox.

PaleHoseGeorge
10-03-2005, 04:47 PM
...

I don't agree with you on the fan bases driving up wagering. Usually they cancel each other out. I think you are underestimating the size of the White Sox fan base - just because the media goes on about the Red Sox and Yankees doesn't mean anyone outside of the Northest cares about them outside of transplants. Most of the fans of the 28 other teams were just as disgusted being force fed New York and Boston all season as we were.

Exactly. "Usually" the fan bases cancel each other out. But this isn't "usually" and you admit it yourself in the paragraph above. The Yankees and Red Sox have national followings and you only need to watch how many fans show up in ballparks around the country to support those two teams. The magnitude of their fan base's size over the Sox is at least as big as that of the Flubbies -- the team we seemingly complain about here 24/7/365.

Look, believe what you want to believe. The fact the Sox are dogs to Boston with the bookmakers should be no surprise to anyone.

When the Sox are dogs to Anaheim, then I will have learned something.

Cat Thief
10-03-2005, 04:48 PM
I'll probably throw a $50 on the Padres. I have pissed off $50 on worse than that.

DAllen15
10-03-2005, 04:48 PM
[QUOTE=SouthSide_HitMen]
A large fan base will affect the odds along the margins.

[QUOTE]

Lack of a fan base on a national level will also affect the odds. Bettor's who don't know much about the White Sox will most likely gravitate towards the BoSox. Your point is correct in the fact that the odds in playoff series or games that will generate a lot of action are influenced as much by how the house thinks people will bet as much as they think who will win. Lopsided action for them is risky, and we know how they feel about risk.

SouthSide_HitMen
10-03-2005, 04:57 PM
Exactly. "Usually" the fan bases cancel each other out. But this isn't "usually" and you admit it yourself in the paragraph above. The Yankees and Red Sox have national followings and you only need to watch how many fans show up in ballparks around the country to support those two teams. The magnitude of their fan base's size over the Sox is at least as big as that of the Flubbies -- the team we seemingly complain about here 24/7/365.

Look, believe what you want to believe. The fact the Sox are dogs to Boston with the bookmakers should be no surprise to anyone.

When the Sox are dogs to Anaheim, then I will have learned something.

We'll find out this weekend because that will be the next matchup.

I think it will be a pick'em / -120 one way or the other.

BTW a -150 / +130 is not a large favorite by any means. It is the equivalent of a 2 1/2 point or 3 point NFL favorite so the series is pretty close to a pick'em.

As far as the White Sox lack of national support remember George you will never walk alone. :wink:

MushMouth
10-03-2005, 04:59 PM
And who do you think makes up most of the Atlantic City action?

No sports betting in Atlantic City...

Only Nevada.

I definitely believe that Yankees fan base pushes these lines into their favor simply by volume. Bookies just reacting to the bets coming in after they set their initial lines.

Pulaski
10-03-2005, 05:08 PM
For information purposes only

Boston Red Sox - 150 for the series
Chicago White Sox is + 130

(meaning you need to bet $150 to win $100 on Boston or $100 to win $130 on Chicago).

New York is a -145 favorite over Anaheim (+125)

Houston is a -120 favorite over Atlanta (Pk)

St. Louis is a -400 favorite over San Diego (+300)

St. Louis is the only higher seed with home field advantage who is favored.

In a short series anything can happen. I like all three underdogs and no wager on the St. Louis series.

Who cares! We were picked to come in 3rd or 4th in our division and we proved them wrong.

JUST WIN!

Brian26
10-03-2005, 05:18 PM
Mercy, -400 is huge for the playoffs. I'm way too risk-adverse to take that one, even though it seems StL would be a lock.

I don't gamble at all, but if you were going to put any money down on anything...San Diego might be your best bet in a short series with a hell of a return. Bet $100 to win $300? That's not bad.

spiffie
10-03-2005, 05:37 PM
That San Diego bet looks downright tasty. I would love to get some cash in on that series. In a short series, if Peavy can get going, they really have to be thought of as less than a 3 to 1 dog.

PaleHoseGeorge
10-03-2005, 05:42 PM
I don't gamble at all, but if you were going to put any money down on anything...San Diego might be your best bet in a short series with a hell of a return. Bet $100 to win $300? That's not bad.

That San Diego bet looks downright tasty. I would love to get some cash in on that series. In a short series, if Peavy can get going, they really have to be thought of as less than a 3 to 1 dog.

This is how Pete Rose got his start.
:wink:

http://www.major.jp/column/img/2003/09/05/2003090501_2.jpg
"John Dowd can bite me."

putherawaywet
10-03-2005, 05:49 PM
The fact that the bosox are favored is no surprise since they are the defending champs while the sox haven't won a playoff series since 1917. Additionally, it doesn't mean a damn thing - just that the oddsmakers are maximizing the amount wagered. Anybody that cares about this should either relax or put thier money where thier mouth is and take them up on the wager since are so far "off".

SouthSide_HitMen
10-09-2005, 10:01 PM
I like the White Sox to win in 6 and St. Louis to win in 5 or 6.

The White Sox would be a slight favorite over New York or even / slight underdog to Anaheim. St. Louis will be around a -200 favorite vs. Houston.

We'll see the odds tomorrow.

Go White Sox!!!

LuvSox
10-09-2005, 10:54 PM
Iguchi doesn't look too worried about odds.

(I just found this pic and was dying to show everybody)

ChiSoxGirl
10-09-2005, 11:36 PM
I laughed out loud; that's awesome! :D:

Chips
10-10-2005, 12:11 AM
That San Diego bet looks downright tasty. I would love to get some cash in on that series. In a short series, if Peavy can get going, they really have to be thought of as less than a 3 to 1 dog.

I hope you didn't place that. I thought it looked like a good chance to make some cash to, but decided to lay off all of the first round action until game 3 of NLDS last night. St Louis was -145, not bad.

spiffie
10-10-2005, 11:34 AM
This is how Pete Rose got his start.
:wink:

http://www.major.jp/column/img/2003/09/05/2003090501_2.jpg
"John Dowd can bite me."

I'm going to be so embarassed when I am hawking my book outside of Cooperstown on HOF induction day because I'm not allowed in.