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1917
09-27-2005, 09:50 PM
OK...if Boston won this afternoon to go back into a tie with the Yanks....if they both lose tonight, will the WC # go down to 3?

kevingrt
09-27-2005, 09:51 PM
OK...if Boston won this afternoon to go back into a tie with the Yanks....if they both lose tonight, will the WC # go down to 3?

I'm terrible at math someone will help us out.

jdm2662
09-27-2005, 09:55 PM
If both the Yankees and Boston win out, the most the second place team can win is 96 games. They play each other at the end of the year, and one of those teams is going to lose at least twice. Three wins is what the Sox need to get in the playoffs. How nice of them to piss two great chances the last two days. Boston has just lost the night cap, and the Yankees are losing right now. The chances are looking better right now.

CallMeNuts
09-27-2005, 10:03 PM
As I write this, the Sox, Indians and Red Sox have all lost, and the Yankees are down 13-8 in the 8th. Assuming the Yanks lose, here are the up to date magic numbers as of the end of the day:

Wild Card Magic Number = 2
Outright Division Win = 4
Best record in AL Magic Number = 4

The Wild Card Number is only 2, since the Yanks and Red Sox play each other the last weekend, and one of these two teams will lose twice.

Once the Sox clinch the Wild Card, The Division Championship Magic Number goes down by 1, since the Sox will only need to tie the Indians in victories for the year to win the division. (Since the Sox and Indians would both go to the playoffs, there would be no one-game play-off and the division would go to the team with the best record head to head, which the Sox have for certain at this moment.) So if the Wild Card seams like a sure thing, than the Magic number for the division would be 3.

Best record in the AL still looks very attainable with the Yanks and Red Sox set to beat up on each other this weekend.

DrCrawdad
09-27-2005, 10:07 PM
As I write this, the Sox, Indians and Red Sox have all lost, and the Yankees are down 13-8 in the 8th. Assuming the Yanks lose, here are the up to date magic numbers as of the end of the day:

Wild Card Magic Number = 2
Outright Division Win = 4
Best record in AL Magic Number = 4

The Wild Card Number is only 2, since the Yanks and Red Sox play each other the last weekend, and one of these two teams will lose twice.

Once the Sox clinch the Wild Card, The Division Championship Magic Number goes down by 1, since the Sox will only need to tie the Indians in victories for the year to win the division. (Since the Sox and Indians would both go to the playoffs, there would be no one-game play-off and the division would go to the team with the best record head to head, which the Sox have for certain at this moment.) So if the Wild Card seams like a sure thing, than the Magic number for the division would be 3.

Best record in the AL still looks very attainable with the Yanks and Red Sox set to beat up on each other this weekend.

According to this website (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html) , the Sox "RIOT" number (the number till the Sox lock-up at least a Wild Card slot) was 2 BEFORE today's games. So, with the Red Sox losing and IF the Yankmees lose too then the RIOT number will be 1.

CallMeNuts
09-27-2005, 10:07 PM
If both the Yankees and Boston win out, the most the second place team can win is 96 games. They play each other at the end of the year, and one of those teams is going to lose at least twice. Three wins is what the Sox need to get in the playoffs. How nice of them to piss two great chances the last two days. Boston has just lost the night cap, and the Yankees are losing right now. The chances are looking better right now.

The most the 2nd place team in the East can win is only 95. They each have 92 now. If they win on Wed & Thu, that makes 94. And one of the teams will win no more than 1, which makes 95. With the Sox at 94 wins now, that means they only need 2.

1917
09-27-2005, 10:09 PM
As I write this, the Sox, Indians and Red Sox have all lost, and the Yankees are down 13-8 in the 8th. Assuming the Yanks lose, here are the up to date magic numbers as of the end of the day:

Wild Card Magic Number = 2
Outright Division Win = 4
Best record in AL Magic Number = 4

The Wild Card Number is only 2, since the Yanks and Red Sox play each other the last weekend, and one of these two teams will lose twice.

Once the Sox clinch the Wild Card, The Division Championship Magic Number goes down by 1, since the Sox will only need to tie the Indians in victories for the year to win the division. (Since the Sox and Indians would both go to the playoffs, there would be no one-game play-off and the division would go to the team with the best record head to head, which the Sox have for certain at this moment.) So if the Wild Card seams like a sure thing, than the Magic number for the division would be 3.

Best record in the AL still looks very attainable with the Yanks and Red Sox set to beat up on each other this weekend.

2? WOW I was expecting it to be 3....That makes me happy...if we win out in Detroit (thats a big if the way we have been playing) we can go into CLE with at least thw WC in our back pocket, which will get the "Chokers" curse off the Sox somewhat knowing they will at bery least make the post season!! By the way I am guilty of throwing a 2 liter of Coke on the floor and having it explode all over after Blums mess up....My wife has asked me to go to the bar for the remainder of the week...C'mon now I cleaned it up!

IronFisk
09-27-2005, 10:12 PM
Hmmm, looks like the Tribe got de jittttters. Of course, so did we :angry:.

Consider this weekend the FIRST round of the playoffs, y'all. Even if we do lose the division, the way we've played at home since '59 (0-7)...no crying here.

CallMeNuts
09-27-2005, 10:14 PM
According to this website (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html) , the Sox "RIOT" number (the number till the Sox lock-up at least a Wild Card slot) was 2 BEFORE today's games. So, with the Red Sox losing and IF the Yankmees lose too then the RIOT number will be 1.

I've been running my own numbers for a couple of weeks now, and they have jived with RIOT up until today.

As mentioned in the previous post, the 2nd place team between the Yanks and Red Sox can get up to 95 wins. We have 94. That means we need 2 wins to settle out own destiny with 96 wins. therefore our magic number and RIOT number should be 2 as of the end of action today. We'll see what RIOT says tomorrow.

ElDuque26
09-27-2005, 10:16 PM
Hmmm, looks like the Tribe got de jittttters. Of course, so did we :angry:.

Consider this weekend the FIRST round of the playoffs, y'all. Even if we do lose the division, the way we've played at home since '59 (0-7)...no crying here.



Hell...i think we should still have the jitters the way the last two games have been going but a wild card MN of 2 is really nice to hear

Muopsies
09-27-2005, 10:16 PM
I just spent too long on excel figuring this out.

Sox win tomorrow, they clinch a 1 game playoff if Boston and New York goes 2-1 either way. If either sweeps, they Sox get the wild card by default. In this scenario, the Sox win tomorrow and lose every game the rest of the season.

If the Sox win tomorrow and Thursday, they clinch the wild card outright, regardless of the outcome of New York and Boston.

This is a terrible way for the Sox to get in so let's assume Sox win the next 3 and Cleveland goes 1-1. Celebration Friday.

ilsox7
09-27-2005, 10:17 PM
I've been running my own numbers for a couple of weeks now, and they have jived with RIOT up until today.

As mentioned in the previous post, the 2nd place team between the Yanks and Red Sox can get up to 95 wins. We have 94. That means we need 2 wins to settle out own destiny with 96 wins. therefore our magic number and RIOT number should be 2 as of the end of action today. We'll see what RIOT says tomorrow.

RIOT will be 1 tomorrow as RIOT only calculates to a tie.

elrod
09-27-2005, 10:18 PM
Assuming the Yankees don't come up with 9 runs in the 9th inning, the RIOTwill be 1 tomorrow. If the White Sox win 1 game, we clinch a Wild Card tie. If we win 1 game and NY and Boston lose again, we clinch the Wild Card. If we win 2 games, we clinch the Wild Card. Anothe reason clinching the Wild Card is big is that if we end the season tied with Cleveland, and we've already clinched the Wild Card, then we win the division because we won the season series. So if we go into the last series 3 up, and we've already won the Wild Card, then we get the division too.

Lip Man 1
09-27-2005, 10:19 PM
The Tribune says 4 for the division and the wild card. Perhaps they are waiting until the Yankees / Red Sox actually hook up.

Like a previous poster said, win two games and you can go into Cleveland relaxed and just play your game.

Lip

CallMeNuts
09-27-2005, 10:20 PM
I just spent too long on excel figuring this out.

Sox win tomorrow, they clinch a 1 game playoff if Boston and New York goes 2-1 either way. If either sweeps, they Sox get the wild card by default. In this scenario, the Sox win tomorrow and lose every game the rest of the season.

If the Sox win tomorrow and Thursday, they clinch the wild card outright, regardless of the outcome of New York and Boston.

This is a terrible way for the Sox to get in so let's assume Sox win the next 3 and Cleveland goes 1-1. Celebration Friday.

Correct. When any of the magic numbers reach 1, a tie is guaranteed. When it reaches 0, we've won outright.

CallMeNuts
09-27-2005, 10:22 PM
RIOT will be 1 tomorrow as RIOT only calculates to a tie.

Thanks for clarifying the difference between RIOT (# needed to tie) and the Magic number (# needed to win outright.)

ilsox7
09-27-2005, 10:24 PM
Thanks for clarifying the difference between RIOT (# needed to tie) and the Magic number (# needed to win outright.)

RIOT also only focuses onwins by your team. For instance, our RIOT number for the division will be 3 b/c if we win 3 more games, one of them has to be against Cleveland and therefore our magic number will decrease by at least 4 with those 3 wins.

itsnotrequired
09-27-2005, 10:28 PM
Thanks for clarifying the difference between RIOT (# needed to tie) and the Magic number (# needed to win outright.)

Not quite. The RIOT number is a "control your own destiny" number. You win the games and you are in, regardless of what anyone else does. The Magic Number counts your wins AND the other team's losses.

DenverSock
09-27-2005, 10:30 PM
The Tribune says 4 for the division and the wild card. Perhaps they are waiting until the Yankees / Red Sox actually hook up.

Like a previous poster said, win two games and you can go into Cleveland relaxed and just play your game.

Lip
What everybody is talking about is the fact that either the Red Sox or the Yankess must lose two games, when they play each other. So we know that no matter what happens, this weekend 2 will come off the Wild Card magic number. Call this the effective magic number. We win 2 and we're assured of at least a Wild Card berth. But nobody official, such as newspapers or MLB will count that until the games are played.

dpbyron
09-27-2005, 10:32 PM
What everybody is talking about is the fact that either the Red Sox or the Yankess must lose two games, when they play each other. So we know that no matter what happens, this weekend 2 will come off the Wild Card magic number. Call this the effective magic number. We win 2 and we're assured of at least a Wild Card berth. But nobody official, such as newspapers or MLB will count that until the games are played.

The media seems to be clueless about this fact. In fact, to his credit Antonio Mora just pointed this out to Mark Malone on channel 2 and Malone looked at him like he had two heads. :o:

ilsox7
09-27-2005, 10:34 PM
The media seems to be clueless

Shocking.

BeviBall!
09-27-2005, 10:35 PM
The media seems to be clueless about this fact. In fact, to his credit Antonio Mora just pointed this out to Mark Malone on channel 2 and Malone looked at him like he had two heads. :o:

Chicago leads the country with ESPNNEWS castoffs that know nothing about Chicago sports. This includes the creepy Pat Boyle.

Playoff MN is 2... either BOS or NYY will lose at least 2 games this weekend. We win tomorrow and Thurs. and it's unofficial... official once either team loses the series this weekend.

dpbyron
09-27-2005, 10:36 PM
Thanks, what was I thinking!:kukoo:

The media IS clueless.:roflmao:

itsnotrequired
09-27-2005, 10:41 PM
The media seems to be clueless about this fact. In fact, to his credit Antonio Mora just pointed this out to Mark Malone on channel 2 and Malone looked at him like he had two heads. :o:

It doesn't have to do with being clueless. The Magic Number to make the Wild Card is four games. A combination of Sox wins and Yankee/Red Sox losses totaling four. That is how a "magic number" is defined. The RIOT number becomes useful in that when the schedules are taken into account, it can easily be seen that two wins are all the Sox need. So if the Sox, Yankees and Red Sox all win their next two games, the playoff magic number will still be reported as two even though those "in the know" will know it is already locked up.

dpbyron
09-27-2005, 10:44 PM
It doesn't have to do with being clueless. The Magic Number to make the Wild Card is four games. A combination of Sox wins and Yankee/Red Sox losses totaling four. That is how a "magic number" is defined. The RIOT number becomes useful in that when the schedules are taken into account, it can easily be seen that two wins are all the Sox need. So if the Sox, Yankees and Red Sox all win their next two games, the playoff magic number will still be reported as two even though those "in the know" will know it is already locked up.

I understand, the media should be aware of this number, but that would mean they couldn't post the sensational headlines.

That is what I meant about clueless because tomorrow at work I'll have to listen to the morons talk about how the magic #'s are both 4 because "that is what the paper says..."

itsnotrequired
09-27-2005, 10:49 PM
I understand, the media should be aware of this number, but that would mean they couldn't post the sensational headlines.

That is what I meant about clueless because tomorrow at work I'll have to listen to the morons talk about how the magic #'s are both 4 because "that is what the paper says..."

It has nothing to do with "what the paper says". It is all about how the Magic Number is defined:

(second place wins) + (second place games left) - (first place wins) + 1

Plugging in the Sox and Yankee/Red Sox numbers gets you:

92 + 5 - 94 + 1 = 4

The Magic Number is 4 and cannot be debated. However, it takes two seconds to realize two Sox victories and they are in since the other two loses by Yankees/Red Sox is a lock.

2 Sox victories + 2 guaranteed Yankee/Red Sox losses = 4.

QED

fusillirob1983
09-27-2005, 11:17 PM
It's a lot more difficult to convince readers that the Sox are choking when the Wild Card Magic Number is only 2 with 5 games to play, rather than 4. If it was the other team, someone would have pointed this tidbit out by now.

MarySwiss
09-27-2005, 11:22 PM
Sox will win the next two. Tribe will lose the next two. Weekend won't matter (except maybe to Cleveland).

Flight #24
09-27-2005, 11:26 PM
It has nothing to do with "what the paper says". It is all about how the Magic Number is defined:

(second place wins) + (second place games left) - (first place wins) + 1

Plugging in the Sox and Yankee/Red Sox numbers gets you:

92 + 5 - 94 + 1 = 4

The Magic Number is 4 and cannot be debated. However, it takes two seconds to realize two Sox victories and they are in since the other two loses by Yankees/Red Sox is a lock.

2 Sox victories + 2 guaranteed Yankee/Red Sox losses = 4.

QED

The issue is that the Magic Number is being used as the "Playoff clinch number", when it is not. The Magic number as you calculate it is correct, but relatively meaningless in this scenario. But it looks worse than using the more information and relevant RIOT number, which accurately protrays the "Playoff clinch". Which is exactly why you'll see the magic # reported locally.

billyvsox
09-28-2005, 12:03 AM
So if I understand correctly, we can actually clinch the playoffs tommorrow if we win and Bosox and Yanks lose. (Champagne)

If this happens and the Toons win, Divsion magic is 2. If they lose it is 1 and we can sew it all up Thursday afternoon in Detroit.

What time do the Toons play on Thursday.

The Dude
09-28-2005, 12:25 AM
QUESTION.... Maybe a dumb one but..

If all the White Sox win this season is the wild card, do they raise a flag next season with 2005 AL Wild Card Champions on it right next to the 2005 World Series Champions? Or would a Wild Card not get a flag at all?

Foulke You
09-28-2005, 01:52 AM
QUESTION.... Maybe a dumb one but..

If all the White Sox win this season is the wild card, do they raise a flag next season with 2005 AL Wild Card Champions on it right next to the 2005 World Series Champions? Or would a Wild Card not get a flag at all?

That's a good question. I think teams hang a flag for the Wild Card. I'm pretty sure the Cubs have one for 1998 for their Wild Card "Championship". If we do hang a flag, I hope it just says "2005 AL Wild Card" and not "Wild Card Champions". Just a personal preference since the Wild Card is essentially the best loser of the 3 divisions. But hey, in Chicago, when your team makes the playoffs, I think it is wise to mark the season with a flag because history shows they just don't happen very often.

EDIT: I forgot to add that I don't think it will be necessary as I still believe we'll hang the proper one that says "AL Central Champions."

itsnotrequired
09-28-2005, 06:37 AM
It's a lot more difficult to convince readers that the Sox are choking when the Wild Card Magic Number is only 2 with 5 games to play, rather than 4. If it was the other team, someone would have pointed this tidbit out by now.

Saying the magic number is 2 implies that Boston or New York can lose two games and the Sox will still make it. This is not the case. The Sox need two WINS not any combination of Sox wins and Boston/New York losses which total two.

Say Boston and New York win their last two games before going into their final series and are tied, 94-65. Say Boston wins takes two out of the three final games. Boston would finish as the AL East champs with a 96-66 record and New York would finish 95-67. The Sox are 94-63 and if they lose the rest of their games, they would finish 94-68, a game behind New York and losers of the Wild Card. So even though New York lost two games, the Sox missed the playoffs...

A Magic Number of 4 implies that ANY combination of Sox wins and New York or Boston losses totaling 4 gets the Sox in, including New York or Boston losing 4 games while the Sox don't win a single game the rest of the season...

Viva Medias B's
09-28-2005, 08:22 AM
Here are the updated (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html) RIOT numbers.