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View Full Version : Effective Magic Number...4 Right?


BRDSR
09-24-2005, 09:36 PM
I know we're all flooding the boards with this question, but I have to satisfy myself that I'm correct. The Sox effective Magic Number to clinch a playoff spot is 4 correct? They hold a 3 game lead of New York and Boston and only need to beat one of them to make the playoffs. Therefore, if the Sox go 4-4 over the final 8 games, both the Red Sox and Yankees have to go 7-1 to tie. However, they play eachother 3 teams, so they can't both lose only 1 more game. Therefore, the effective magic number for the Sox is 4? Right?

ilsox7
09-24-2005, 09:42 PM
I know we're all flooding the boards with this question, but I have to satisfy myself that I'm correct. The Sox effective Magic Number to clinch a playoff spot is 4 correct? They hold a 3 game lead of New York and Boston and only need to beat one of them to make the playoffs. Therefore, if the Sox go 4-4 over the final 8 games, both the Red Sox and Yankees have to go 7-1 to tie. However, they play eachother 3 teams, so they can't both lose only 1 more game. Therefore, the effective magic number for the Sox is 4? Right?

Technically, no. But if we win 4 more, we guarantee a spot in the playoffs. But it is not a combo of Sox wins and Yankee or Red Sox losses.

BRDSR
09-24-2005, 09:45 PM
Technically, no. But if we win 4 more, we guarantee a spot in the playoffs. But it is not a combo of Sox wins and Yankee or Red Sox losses.

Right, I understand that. For instance, if the White Sox win, the Red Sox lose, and the Yankees win tomorrow, the "effective magic number" is 3, not 2. Maybe we should call it the "We control our own destiny" number.

ilsox7
09-24-2005, 09:46 PM
Right, I understand that. For instance, if the White Sox win, the Red Sox lose, and the Yankees win tomorrow, the "effective magic number" is 3, not 2. Maybe we should call it the "We control our own destiny" number.

It's already called RIOT.

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html

BRDSR
09-24-2005, 09:50 PM
It's already called RIOT.

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html)

Oh, I see. Interesting. My new thought is that it is actually possible for the White Sox to clinch a playoff spot as early as Monday night, if the White Sox win the next two days and both the Red Sox and Yankees lose both of their next two games. It could happen. This thread is really making me feel good(even though I'm pretty much the only one saying anything and even though everyone already knows what I'm saying). Can't wait to get to the game tomorrow.

soxjim
09-24-2005, 09:58 PM
My friends and I were discussing this during the game tonight. I came up with 5. They both came up with 4. Lets Go Go White Sox.

itsnotrequired
09-24-2005, 09:59 PM
My friends and I were discussing this during the game tonight. I came up with 5. They both came up with 4. Lets Go Go White Sox.

I think 4 is for a tie. 5 clinches a spot outright.

soxjim
09-24-2005, 10:02 PM
I think 4 is for a tie. 5 clinches a spot outright.

Thats how I came up with 5. I don't have enough coins to flip in case of a tie. I still may be wrong. Lets just go out and win tomorrow.

LaHerdiaGrande35
09-24-2005, 10:05 PM
Whatever the hell it is, let's just get it down to 0 as soon as possible to prevent any medical problems with any of us.

CallMeNuts
09-24-2005, 10:06 PM
The RIOT / (True Magic) number is now 4.

It will go down by 1 for every Sox win. So 4 wins out of our next 8 games and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.

It will go down by 1 if NY & BOS BOTH lose. (provided that NY & BOS remain withing 1/2 game of one another.)

If either team gets a one game lead on the other, the number goes down by 1 for every game the lower of the two teams loses.

I've got an excel spreadsheet with all of this. Too bad I'm not smart enough to know how to post the spreadsheet.

tebman
09-24-2005, 10:15 PM
The RIOT / (True Magic) number is now 4.

It will go down by 1 for every Sox win. So 4 wins out of our next 8 games and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.

It will go down by 1 if NY & BOS BOTH lose. (provided that NY & BOS remain withing 1/2 game of one another.)

If either team gets a one game lead on the other, the number goes down by 1 for every game the lower of the two teams loses.

I've got an excel spreadsheet with all of this. Too bad I'm not smart enough to know how to post the spreadsheet.
So where's Cleveland in all this? My concern (I know, I know, I should worry about the RIOT number, but I wanna beat the Toons) is the 1.5 game lead over Cleveland with 8 games to go.

sox1970
09-24-2005, 10:17 PM
The RIOT / (True Magic) number is now 4.

It will go down by 1 for every Sox win. So 4 wins out of our next 8 games and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.

It will go down by 1 if NY & BOS BOTH lose. (provided that NY & BOS remain withing 1/2 game of one another.)

If either team gets a one game lead on the other, the number goes down by 1 for every game the lower of the two teams loses.

I've got an excel spreadsheet with all of this. Too bad I'm not smart enough to know how to post the spreadsheet.

A simple way to look at it is if the White Sox reduce the magic number by 4 over the Yankees and Red Sox over the next five days, they clinch a playoff spot before going to Cleveland.

CallMeNuts
09-24-2005, 10:28 PM
So where's Cleveland in all this? My concern (I know, I know, I should worry about the RIOT number, but I wanna beat the Toons) is the 1.5 game lead over Cleveland with 8 games to go.

The RIOT number is only releveant if Cleveland beats us for the division. Magic number to win the division is 7 after tonight. We'll probably clinch a play-off spot via the Wild-Card before we eliminate Cleveland, so our series with Cleveland will effectively only be for home field advantage.

And as of now, winning the division also clinches best record in the AL so we'd have home filed thoughout the play-offs. I'd like to see us get this as it gives me more chances to get to play-off games.

tebman
09-24-2005, 10:34 PM
The RIOT number is only releveant if Cleveland beats us for the division. Magic number to win the division is 7 after tonight. We'll probably clinch a play-off spot via the Wild-Card before we eliminate Cleveland, so our series with Cleveland will effectively only be for home field advantage.

And as of now, winning the division also clinches best record in the AL so we'd have home filed thoughout the play-offs. I'd like to see us get this as it gives me more chances to get to play-off games.
Thanks, CMN. Getting to the playoffs is getting to the playoffs, but winning the division after all this heartburn with Cleveland the last few weeks would be soooo sweet.

But hey, we're Sox fans, so nothing's easy. :rolleyes:

CYGarland20
09-24-2005, 11:04 PM
I know we're all flooding the boards with this question, but I have to satisfy myself that I'm correct. The Sox effective Magic Number to clinch a playoff spot is 4 correct? They hold a 3 game lead of New York and Boston and only need to beat one of them to make the playoffs. Therefore, if the Sox go 4-4 over the final 8 games, both the Red Sox and Yankees have to go 7-1 to tie. However, they play eachother 3 teams, so they can't both lose only 1 more game. Therefore, the effective magic number for the Sox is 4? Right? It's 4. Either Boston or New York are going to go 6-2 at best, which means the SOx just need to go 4-4 to clinch a playoff spot, and 3-5 to tie.

itsnotrequired
09-24-2005, 11:10 PM
It's 4. Either Boston or New York are going to go 5-2 at best, which means the SOx just need to go 4-4 to clinch a playoff spot, and 3-5 to tie.

No, its 5 to clinch, 4 to tie. Boston and New York each have 8 games left, not 7.

kitekrazy
09-24-2005, 11:21 PM
A simple way to look at it is if the White Sox reduce the magic number by 4 over the Yankees and Red Sox over the next five days, they clinch a playoff spot before going to Cleveland.

That would be sweet. It would take some pressure off the players and put some of the kids in. I know being division champions would be better but winning 97 games and being a wild card is nothing to be ashamed of.

ilsox7
09-24-2005, 11:26 PM
No, its 5 to clinch, 4 to tie. Boston and New York each have 8 games left, not 7.

We win 4, we're in.

It puts us at 97-65.

If NYY and BOS win out before their season ending series, they will each be 95-64. If one team takes 2/3, they win the division. The remaining team would then be 96-66.

itsnotrequired
09-24-2005, 11:32 PM
We win 4, we're in.

It puts us at 97-65.

If NYY and BOS win out before their season ending series, they will each be 95-64. If one team takes 2/3, they win the division. The remaining team would then be 96-66.

Crap! Damn my shoddy math!

You guys are right. 4 wins (regardless of opponent) and we are in.

ilsox7
09-24-2005, 11:36 PM
Crap! Damn my shoddy math!

You guys are right. 4 wins (regardless of opponent) and we are in.

It is actually pretty amazing, if you sit back and look at the 4 teams involved in all of this. There will probably be a 95 win team going home this year before the playoffs start.

chisoxfanatic
09-25-2005, 12:32 AM
It is actually pretty amazing, if you sit back and look at the 4 teams involved in all of this. There will probably be a 95 win team going home this year before the playoffs start.

Perhaps they should dump San Diego and replace them with the team left on the outside looking in...And NO, this is not meant to be in teal...San Diego has absolutely no deserving of going to the playoffs.

So, you may say "But, Heather...EVERY division gets a playoff team."

Well, what is and what SHOULD be are different. They NEED to retool this whole playoff system, which is a joke if it allows a .500 team into the playoffs. Winning a division should not give an automatic bid for the playoffs.

Ok, mini-rant over!

DaleJRFan
09-25-2005, 12:35 AM
**** magic numbers. I want (and EXPECT) the Sox to win out. They've been playing REALLY well with thie exception of the Garland/Elarton game. They'll clearn up in Detroit and can (if they give a ****) clean up in Cleveland.

ilsox7
09-25-2005, 12:41 AM
Perhaps they should dump San Diego and replace them with the team left on the outside looking in...And NO, this is not meant to be in teal...San Diego has absolutely no deserving of going to the playoffs.

So, you may say "But, Heather...EVERY division gets a playoff team."

Well, what is and what SHOULD be are different. They NEED to retool this whole playoff system, which is a joke if it allows a .500 team into the playoffs. Winning a division should not give an automatic bid for the playoffs.

Ok, mini-rant over!

We're looking at a 1 year anomaly. No need to go and make drastic changes based on something that may happen once every decade or so...changing it will just create another way to **** things up.

Chisox353014
09-25-2005, 02:04 AM
We win 4, we're in.

It puts us at 97-65.

If NYY and BOS win out before their season ending series, they will each be 95-64. If one team takes 2/3, they win the division. The remaining team would then be 96-66.

Yep, this is right. We've finally reached the point where we don't have to worry about what another team does "if the Sox play .500..."
If the Sox play .500 over the last 8, we're in. Period.

voodoochile
09-25-2005, 03:12 AM
Nice to see you all already got this figured out. I noticed we clinched no worse than a tie with Oakland tonight which means one more win or Oakland loss and the only team the Sox can lose the WC to is the ALE runner up, which makes it 4 as previously pointed out.

:)

socko82
09-25-2005, 07:24 AM
And once they win the 4 more to clinch the WC it also reduces the magic number for the division by an extra game because at that point all they would have to do is tie the Toons and they are division champs.

elrod
09-25-2005, 09:45 AM
And once they win the 4 more to clinch the WC it also reduces the magic number for the division by an extra game because at that point all they would have to do is tie the Toons and they are division champs.

Why? Because we won the season series with Cleveland?

PaleHoseGeorge
09-25-2005, 10:24 AM
Why? Because we won the season series with Cleveland?

Once Oakland is eliminated, both Boston and New York must finish ahead of the Sox to block postseason games on the South Side. They play each other and thus one of them must lose, so the Sox magic number automatically goes down.

As for Cleveland, they have tomorrow off and thus play one fewer game the remainder of the season. They're already down the extra game in the loss column. Since both the Sox and Cleveland can't qualify unless one is the wild card, a "tie" between these two teams is decided by head-to-head record which the Sox have already won regardless of the outcome of next weekend's games. The Sox would be awarded the division title with Cleveland qualifying as the wild card.

Cleveland has an uphill battle. They wouldn't have needed to battle uphill if they had shown up for more than half the season.

Ol' No. 2
09-25-2005, 10:28 AM
Once Oakland is eliminated, both Boston and New York must finish ahead of the Sox to block postseason games on the South Side. They play each other and thus one of them must lose, so the magic number automatically goes down.

As for Cleveland, they have tomorrow off and thus play one fewer game the remainder of the season. They're already down the extra game in the loss column. Since both the Sox and Cleveland can't qualify unless one is the wild card, a "tie" between these two teams is decided by head-to-head record which the Sox have already won regardless of the outcome of next weekend's games. The Sox would be awarded the division title with Cleveland qualifying as the wild card.

Cleveland has an uphill battle. They wouldn't have needed to battle uphill if they had shown up for more than half the season.There also wouldn't have been a battle if the Sox had shown up for the last two months.:(: But spilt milk and all that. The game they control is today's game.

http://www.candidcritic.com/images/davis.jpg Just win, baby.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-25-2005, 10:40 AM
There also wouldn't have been a battle if the Sox had shown up for the last two months.:(: But spilt milk and all that. The game they control is today's game.

Just win, baby.

Well, let's just remember how the Athletics surged earlier this summer looking like world beaters, too. I recall they pounded some lumps on the Sox who had the misfortune of playing them at the wrong time with the predictable results amongst the perpetually pee-pants posters on this board.

How does it feel to be Oakland today? Amongst all the doom and gloom last July, I remember somebody here talking about revenge and opining that it would never happen because Oakland would probably punk out before the grudge rematch could ever take place -- like Bears/Dolphins in '85. The Bears never got their revenge because Marino and the Dolphins got eliminated first by Champaign Tony Eason and the Mighty Mites from Foxboro. Sucks to be Oakland...
:cool:

Today is the game to win. We'll worry about winning tomorrow's game tomorrow. What anybody else does is irrelevant when the Sox win.

Al Davis is a wise man.
:wink:

Yorke97
09-25-2005, 10:49 AM
We're looking at a 1 year anomaly. No need to go and make drastic changes based on something that may happen once every decade or so...changing it will just create another way to **** things up.

Much truth to this. I think it's pretty easy to say that San Diego would not be in the picture if the Giants had Bonds all Season.

downstairs
09-25-2005, 10:52 AM
Much truth to this. I think it's pretty easy to say that San Diego would not be in the picture if the Giants had Bonds all Season.

I'll take a sub-500 team in the playoffs over one that didn't cheat and break the law to get there.

One thing you can't claim about the NL West is that they're cheating.... heh. :cool:

PaleHoseGeorge
09-25-2005, 10:59 AM
In this era of heavily unbalanced schedules, it is truly a feat to manage to win your division with a .500 record. Every team in the N.L. West has served as a punching bag for everyone else -- including the Sox and the A.L. Central teams who played them this summer.

Believe it or not, San Diego is actually WORSE than their record appears. The unbalanced schedule virtually proves it.
:o:

nasox
09-25-2005, 11:48 AM
In this era of heavily unbalanced schedules, it is truly a feat to manage to win your division with a .500 record. Every team in the N.L. West has served as a punching bag for everyone else -- including the Sox and the A.L. Central teams who played them this summer.

Believe it or not, San Diego is actually WORSE than their record appears. The unbalanced schedule virtually proves it.
:o:

at least a team that hasn't been historically great is getting in. Give those Padre fans something to cheer for (at least three games until they get swept)

doublem23
09-25-2005, 11:50 AM
Off topic, but... The best thing about RIOT... 1996-era logos! Man, a lot of teams have changed it up a bit.

ilsox7
09-25-2005, 11:55 AM
at least a team that hasn't been historically great is getting in. Give those Padre fans something to cheer for (at least three games until they get swept)

They've been to a World Series in the last decade,

downstairs
09-25-2005, 12:10 PM
They've been to a World Series in the last decade,

They've been to two in the last 21 years...

:cool:

MRKARNO
09-25-2005, 12:40 PM
Once Oakland is eliminated, both Boston and New York must finish ahead of the Sox to block postseason games on the South Side. They play each other and thus one of them must lose, so the Sox magic number automatically goes down.

As for Cleveland, they have tomorrow off and thus play one fewer game the remainder of the season. They're already down the extra game in the loss column. Since both the Sox and Cleveland can't qualify unless one is the wild card, a "tie" between these two teams is decided by head-to-head record which the Sox have already won regardless of the outcome of next weekend's games. The Sox would be awarded the division title with Cleveland qualifying as the wild card.

Cleveland has an uphill battle. They wouldn't have needed to battle uphill if they had shown up for more than half the season.

Please stop making so much sense, PHG. It doesn't fit in with the majority of the posts around here lately :cool: