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View Full Version : From here on out, what exactly will it take for us to win this division?


whitesoxruleall
09-23-2005, 01:27 PM
We are 1 and a half game ahead as everyone knows, so at this point can someone break down of what it will take for us to hold on and win? Thanks

CHISOXFAN13
09-23-2005, 01:28 PM
Countles speople have come up with grids of what needs to happen.

IMO, it's impossible to figure it out. The Sox have to start winning. It's really that simple.

slobes
09-23-2005, 01:28 PM
Find some offense, it's been terrible lately

Madvora
09-23-2005, 01:30 PM
It's going to come down to that series in Cleveland to end the season. That's what it's going to take.

munchman33
09-23-2005, 01:31 PM
It's going to come down to that series in Cleveland to end the season. That's what it's going to take.

You're assuming we'll only be three out at that point.

Procol Harum
09-23-2005, 01:31 PM
Find some offense, it's been terrible lately

Perhaps we could get the ghost of Shoeless Joe to indwell Carl Everett so he might have some sort of clue about this hitting thing....

Hangar18
09-23-2005, 01:32 PM
JUST WIN. Win, win regularly, and win everything in sight

LETS GO SOX, enough already and time to make some (good) history

The Dude
09-23-2005, 01:39 PM
As one of my season ticket neighbors at the Bears game said last sunday regarding the White Sox as he was leaving..."If you just win, you cant lose." That about sums it up!

cheeses_h_rice
09-23-2005, 01:39 PM
IMO, the Sox won't be able to sweep the Tribe in 3 in Cleveland. At best, they'll take 2 of 3, and likely just 1 of 3 based on our recent series with them.

So, at worst, the magic number needs to be down to 2 before the Tribe series, and the Sox would have to win just 1 of the 3 in Cleveland to clinch the division.

In order to get the magic number down to 2 before the Cleveland series, we need 7 Sox wins or Cleveland losses. The Sox play 7 times, the Tribe plays 6. That's 13 chances.

So, any of the following would get the magic # down to 2 before the final series:

Sox go 7-0
Sox go 6-1 + Tribe goes 5-1 or worse
Sox go 5-2 + Tribe goes 4-2 or worse
Sox go 4-3 + Tribe goes 3-3 or worse
Sox go 3-4 + Tribe goes 2-4 or worse
Sox go 2-5 + Tribe goes 1-5 or worse

In order to clinch BEFORE the Cleveland series, we need a combo of 9 Sox wins + Cleveland losses. For this to happen, the White Sox would probably have to win 6 of 7 and hope Cleveland only goes .500. That doesn't look very likely.

Bottom line: Sox need to dominate the Twins and Tigers the rest of the way and take 1 or 2 of 3 from Cleveland. Otherwise, we'll have to hope for the Wild Card.

DrGiggles
09-23-2005, 01:40 PM
We need to win and have Cleveland lose. That is my dream to see us win tonight and have KC come up big for us and win.

Dan H
09-23-2005, 01:43 PM
Forget about scoreboard watching and come up with a clutch hit once in a while. The Sox should dominate the Twins and Tigers, but that doesn't mean they will.

Madvora
09-23-2005, 01:45 PM
We need to win and have Cleveland lose. That is my dream to see us win tonight and have KC come up big for us and win.
My God, when's the last time that happened?

mike squires
09-23-2005, 01:50 PM
IMO, the Sox won't be able to sweep the Tribe in 3 in Cleveland. At best, they'll take 2 of 3, and likely just 1 of 3 based on our recent series with them.

So, at worst, the magic number needs to be down to 2 before the Tribe series, and the Sox would have to win just 1 of the 3 in Cleveland to clinch the division.

In order to get the magic number down to 2 before the Cleveland series, we need 7 Sox wins or Cleveland losses. The Sox play 7 times, the Tribe plays 6. That's 13 chances.

So, any of the following would get the magic # down to 2 before the final series:

Sox go 7-0
Sox go 6-1 + Tribe goes 5-1 or worse
Sox go 5-2 + Tribe goes 4-2 or worse
Sox go 4-3 + Tribe goes 3-3 or worse
Sox go 3-4 + Tribe goes 2-4 or worse
Sox go 2-5 + Tribe goes 1-5 or worse

In order to clinch BEFORE the Cleveland series, we need a combo of 9 Sox wins + Cleveland losses. For this to happen, the White Sox would probably have to win 6 of 7 and hope Cleveland only goes .500. That doesn't look very likely.

Bottom line: Sox need to dominate the Twins and Tigers the rest of the way and take 1 or 2 of 3 from Cleveland. Otherwise, we'll have to hope for the Wild Card.

WOW!!! I remember when the numbers looked so much easier than that. That was only a few days ago it seems...

Hangar18
09-23-2005, 01:53 PM
IMO, the Sox won't be able to sweep the Tribe in 3 in Cleveland. At best, they'll take 2 of 3, and likely just 1 of 3 based on our recent series with them.

So, at worst, the magic number needs to be down to 2 before the Tribe series, and the Sox would have to win just 1 of the 3 in Cleveland to clinch the division.

In order to get the magic number down to 2 before the Cleveland series, we need 7 Sox wins or Cleveland losses. The Sox play 7 times, the Tribe plays 6. That's 13 chances.

So, any of the following would get the magic # down to 2 before the final series:

Sox go 7-0
Sox go 6-1 + Tribe goes 5-1 or worse
Sox go 5-2 + Tribe goes 4-2 or worse
Sox go 4-3 + Tribe goes 3-3 or worse
Sox go 3-4 + Tribe goes 2-4 or worse
Sox go 2-5 + Tribe goes 1-5 or worse

In order to clinch BEFORE the Cleveland series, we need a combo of 9 Sox wins + Cleveland losses. For this to happen, the White Sox would probably have to win 6 of 7 and hope Cleveland only goes .500. That doesn't look very likely.

Bottom line: Sox need to dominate the Twins and Tigers the rest of the way and take 1 or 2 of 3 from Cleveland. Otherwise, we'll have to hope for the Wild Card.

This was in a thread I started. I said we arent going to WIN in Cleveland, so to avoid this scenario, we would have to take 2 of 3 from CLEVELAND HERE. In case we didnt and lost 2 of 3, we would then have WIN THE NEXT SEVEN IN A ROW. Anything Short and we watch the playoffs in October on TV. We CANNOT go to Cleveland with less than a 3game lead.

DrGiggles
09-23-2005, 01:56 PM
My God, when's the last time that happened?

My point that is why its my dream.

cheeses_h_rice
09-23-2005, 01:57 PM
Another way to look at it is:

We all assume Cleveland's on a tear and will probably go 5-1 or 4-2 over their next 6.

If the Tribe goes 5-1, they'll be 95-64. The Sox would need to go 4-3 to tie them, and then it would be best 2 out of 3 to win the division.

If the Tribe goes 4-2, the Sox would need to go 3-4 to tie them.

Personally, I think the Sox need to be a full game up on Cleveland before they play the final 3 games, at the bare minimum.

CHISOXFAN13
09-23-2005, 02:00 PM
Another way to look at it is:

We all assume Cleveland's on a tear and will probably go 5-1 or 4-2 over their next 6.

If the Tribe goes 5-1, they'll be 95-64. The Sox would need to go 4-3 to tie them, and then it would be best 2 out of 3 to win the division.

If the Tribe goes 4-2, the Sox would need to go 3-4 to tie them.

Personally, I think the Sox need to be a full game up on Cleveland before they play the final 3 games, at the bare minimum.


I still have a hunch that both teams will end up 97-65. The Sox win the division and Cleveland gets the wild card.

A man can dream, can't he?

kaufsox
09-23-2005, 02:03 PM
We are 1 and a half game ahead as everyone knows, so at this point can someone break down of what it will take for us to hold on and win? Thanks

An act of God.

Or winning, which lately seems to require divine intervention

Ol' No. 2
09-23-2005, 02:04 PM
Countles speople have come up with grids of what needs to happen.

IMO, it's impossible to figure it out. The Sox have to start winning. It's really that simple.Bingo. And start tonight. The Sox are still in the lead. They don't need to catch the Indians. The Indians need to catch the Sox. If the Sox win it won't matter what the Indians do. Even if the Sox go into that final series only one game up, the Tribe would have to sweep to overtake them, and the Sox win the tiebreaker.

Lip Man 1
09-23-2005, 02:08 PM
Faith, hope and prayer which seems to work about as well (or better) then the offense in the clutch, and the bull pen since September 8th.

Lip

munchman33
09-23-2005, 02:11 PM
Another way to look at it is:

We all assume Cleveland's on a tear and will probably go 5-1 or 4-2 over their next 6.

If the Tribe goes 5-1, they'll be 95-64. The Sox would need to go 4-3 to tie them, and then it would be best 2 out of 3 to win the division.

If the Tribe goes 4-2, the Sox would need to go 3-4 to tie them.

Personally, I think the Sox need to be a full game up on Cleveland before they play the final 3 games, at the bare minimum.

I no longer have faith this team can go 3-4 in that span. I think you're stretching it to say they'll go 2-5.

jehosaphat
09-23-2005, 02:23 PM
We are 1 and a half game ahead as everyone knows, so at this point can someone break down of what it will take for us to hold on and win? Thanks

I'll bite. My Crystal Ball says if the the Sox win 7 games or more, they win the division; 6 games, they tie with Cleveland and there is the playoff; 5 games, they squeak into the wild card over Boston, 4 games they tie with Boston and there is a playoff; 3 games or less and they stay at home, and I'm sorry to say if that happens it will go down as the biggest collapse since the '69 you know who.

As we all know and need to remind ourselves, everything is within the realm of possibilities. Cleveland could lose 5 straight - boston and NY could both flounder - the Sox could get hot and charge - the Sox could get swept by the Twins and Tigers - anything could happen. If you don't think so, consider the fact that the Sox were 15 games ahead on August 1 - who in their right mind would have thought that Cleveland would be in any position to win the division?

Let's hope that this is our darkest hour of the season. We got to keep the faith and cheer the team onward, and hope that they don't give up on themselves.

Lip Man 1
09-23-2005, 03:14 PM
It's no longer a 'marathon' friends....
It's a ten game sprint.

The Sox need six wins in the books before going into Cleveland. If the 'magic number' for winning the division is over 3 forget it, not going to happen. The Sox win total can go down if Cleveland ever decides to lose.

As far as the wild card, the magic number is at 8. Six wins and it's down to two, with Boston facing new York the final weekend one of them is going to lose so the Sox might not have to even win a game in Cleveland to lock up a spot.

All this is pure speculation, as always with the Sox reality will be far stranger then fiction.

Lip

Rocky Soprano
09-23-2005, 03:23 PM
My God, when's the last time that happened?

The last time the Indians and the Sox won (other than our series with them) was September 4th.

sox1970
09-23-2005, 03:27 PM
I think the Sox will go 5-2 the next seven, and clinch a playoff spot before they get to Cleveland. At the end of play on Thursday, September 29, the standings will look like this:

White Sox 96-63 - (5-2 Friday-Thursday)
Indians 95-64 1 (5-1)
Yankees 94-65 2 (5-2)
Red Sox 93-66 3 (5-2)

We'll still be going for the division, but having at least a two game lead on the Yankees and Red Sox going into the final weekend assures us a playoff spot because the Red Sox and Yankees play each other.

If this doesn't happen, I still think 5-5 overall gets us in by the skin of our teeth. I'm seeing a lot winnable games in the next seven, so let's hope it doesn't come down to the last couple days.

Hangar18
09-23-2005, 03:36 PM
This was in a thread I started. I said we arent going to WIN in Cleveland, so to avoid this scenario, we would have to take 2 of 3 from CLEVELAND HERE. In case we didnt and lost 2 of 3, we would then have WIN THE NEXT SEVEN IN A ROW. Anything Short and we watch the playoffs in October on TV. We CANNOT go to Cleveland with less than a 3game lead.

This is the last game we play, where we are COMPLETELY IN CONTROL OF OUR OWN DESTINY. A loss tonite, puts our fate into other teams hands.
Some of those other teams include KC, Tampa. NYY and Bos also then hold keys to our playoff futures. JUST WIN SOX

A. Cavatica
09-23-2005, 03:44 PM
This is the last game we play, where we are COMPLETELY IN CONTROL OF OUR OWN DESTINY. A loss tonite, puts our fate into other teams hands.
Some of those other teams include KC, Tampa. NYY and Bos also then hold keys to our playoff futures. JUST WIN SOX

Huh? If we lose tonight and Cleveland wins, we're still 1/2 game up. If we then win all the rest of our games, we still win the division.

Note that Cleveland is also in control of it's destiny. Even though they're 1 1/2 behind as I write this, if they win all the rest of our games, they win the division. This is because we have the 3 head-to-head games, and if they win, we lose.

Unless Cleveland suddenly loses a lot of ground, there is no way we can win the division without beating them head-to-head. (We'd have to be 4 up going into the final series.)

Conversely, we'd need to lose ground even faster than we have been for them to clinch before the final series.

Those last 3 games are going to be a playoff series in their own right. The difference is, it may not be enough just to win the series: one team may have to sweep to get in.

FoulkeFan
09-23-2005, 04:10 PM
Here's the plan:

Win 2 out of next 3 with Twins.
Win 3 out of 4 with Tigers.
Win 2 out of 3 with Cleveland.

Even if Cleveland wins the rest of their games then we win. Simple, huh?

ThinWhiteDuque
09-23-2005, 04:15 PM
We need to win and have Cleveland lose. That is my dream to see us win tonight and have KC come up big for us and win.

Not tonight. C.C., who has been doing a pretty good Johan Santana impression lately, isn't going to lose to the Royals.

downstairs
09-23-2005, 04:29 PM
Here... I'll offer a little more generic of a response. I don't want to go into Cleveland without having clinched... but I'll analyze this simply from here to the end. We have 10 games remaining. Cleveland 9, BoSox 10, NY 10.

I don't care if we win the WC or division.

Oakland is not catching us, so its down to those 4 teams. The worst one goes home.

Sox go 10-0 or 9-1... we clinch the divison period.
Sox 8-2: We clinch over Boston. We're in.

The following numbers are *ALL* things that need to happen for us to tie for the wild card and go to a 1-game playoff. If all three other teams play better (not 2 of 3, all 3 have to) than I note here, we're out.

Sox 7-3: CLE 8-1, NYY 9-1, BOS 10-0 (all have happen, which is impossible. either NYY or BOS will lose at least 2 games from here on out. They play each other.)


Sox 6-4: CLE 7-2, NYY 8-2, BOS 9-1 (all have happen)
Sox 5-5: CLE 6-3, NYY 7-3, BOS 8-2 (all have happen)
Sox 4-6: CLE 5-4, NYY 6-4, BOS 7-3 (all have happen)
Sox 3-7: CLE 4-5, NYY 5-5, BOS 6-4 (all have happen)
Sox 2-8: CLE 3-6, NYY 4-6, BOS 5-5 (all have happen)
Sox 1-9: CLE 2-7, NYY 3-7, BOS 4-6 (all have happen)
Sox 0-10: CLE 1-8, NYY 2-8, BOS 3-7 (all have happen)

Again... if any of these bizarre situations actually do happen as I state, we'd still have a one-game playoff for the WC spot.

So for us to be out of it completely, ALL THREE of these teams have to do one game better than these situations.

SOXSINCE'70
09-23-2005, 04:39 PM
Faith, hope and prayer which seems to work about as well (or better) then the offense in the clutch, and the bull pen since September 8th.

Lip

Or,to paraphrase a 1980's tune by Mike and The Mechanics,
all they need is a miracle.Scoring 1 more run than the Twinks or Tiggers
the next 7 games would be a nice miracle.

Ol' No. 2
09-23-2005, 04:43 PM
Not tonight. C.C., who has been doing a pretty good Johan Santana impression lately, isn't going to lose to the Royals.It's even worse than that. Jose "HR balls for everybody" Lima is pitching for KC.

mr_genius
09-23-2005, 04:44 PM
You're assuming we'll only be three out at that point.


ohhhhhhh...

ouch

skobabe8
09-23-2005, 04:44 PM
My God, when's the last time that happened?

This past Tuesday and this past June.