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ma-gaga
09-21-2005, 04:44 PM
Hey all. Everyone's favorite Baseball Prospectus columnist Joe Sheehan has a great column up today regarding last nights Toons vs W.Sox game. It's too bad it's part of their premium site, I think the majority of the BP "haters" would actually be ok with it:

These games provide a great example of why you simply can't predict what will happen in a small number of baseball games. Individual games, series, playoffs are decided not by the true talent level of the teams, but by small things that can't be measured. I don't mean that in the "character/heart/intangibles" major-media (non)sense, but in the sense that things happen in a baseball game that are essentially not predictable, that fall outside of both our metrics and the observational evaluation that people within the game do, and over a day or a week, it's those things that make a huge difference.
...
Remember all this two weeks from now, when people like me are making predictions because…well, because we have to. Take them with a grain of salt, because while the analysis that you'll find in playoff previews is relevant, the step from analysis to prediction is a doozy. Keep games like last night in mind when major media is telling you that the winners won because they had more character and heart and are simply better people than the losers. It's not that simple, and the lines aren't nearly so bright.


I know a lot of people here despise BP, because they tend to dismiss traditional baseball thinking. But it my mind, this is the true essence of baseball boiled down.

:gulp:

MRKARNO
09-21-2005, 05:40 PM
It was a great article, and plenty fair. He's mentions that Ozzie does not get enough credit for his handling of the pitching staff, something to which I'm sure we all agree, and too much credit as far as the offense goes, also pretty accurate.

Banix12
09-21-2005, 07:11 PM
Sounds like an interesting article from the quote, not gonna get me to sign up for his service though.

I still don't like BP and Joe Sheehan, not because I don't like Sabremetrics, I find a lot of that stuff interesting. There are many ways to look at things and it is nice to get knowledge from multiple sources. I just don't like the way he approaches things and the site is just bizarre in its commentary sometimes. That aura of smugness around the site doesn't help my view of them as well.

Sheehan was on The Hot List this afternoon complimenting Ozzie Guillen on his use of the bullpen, saying how he doesn't rely on matchups and just puts the best reliever out there in any situation. Anybody who watches Ozzie burn through his bullpen going Lefty/Righty can vouch that Sheehans view on this is at best exaggerated and more than likely false. I like the way Ozzie handles the starters, the bullpen not so much.

maurice
09-21-2005, 07:31 PM
These games provide a great example of why you simply can't predict what will happen in a small number of baseball games.

If you're name is Joe Sheehan, you can't predict what will happen in a large number of baseball games either.

Sheehan was on The Hot List this afternoon complimenting Ozzie Guillen on his use of the bullpen, saying how he doesn't rely on matchups and just puts the best reliever out there in any situation.

Confirming once again that Sheehan knows absolutely nothing about the Sox.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-21-2005, 07:46 PM
Hey all. Everyone's favorite Baseball Prospectus columnist Joe Sheehan has a great column up today regarding last nights Toons vs W.Sox game. It's too bad it's part of their premium site, I think the majority of the BP "haters" would actually be ok with it:

....

I know a lot of people here despise BP, because they tend to dismiss traditional baseball thinking. But it my mind, this is the true essence of baseball boiled down.


So Sheehan basically wrote an entire column to tell us "sample size matters." Boy, that figures...
:o:

And as Maurice already noted, most of the dopes writing at Baseball Prospectus have no clue how to analyze the data even when they *do* have a large enough sample size. But it sure comes in handy for winning fantasy baseball leagues, and isn't that what Baseball Prospectus is really for, proving how much smarter you are than anyone else?

And then the BP propellerheads wonder why none of them can get dates.
:cool:

doublem23
09-21-2005, 08:17 PM
And then the BP propellerheads wonder why none of them can get dates.
:cool:

I don't know what you're talking about, PHG, but in my experience, women love a nice, long 4-hour lecture on the importance of VORP, Zone Rating, and why OBP is better than BA.

ma-gaga
09-22-2005, 03:59 PM
...But it sure comes in handy for winning fantasy baseball leagues...

It really hasn't helped me out that much. It's gotten me one good team, and a couple of average ones. Of course, my "good team" was fueled by a couple of picks that I really didn't like, and were made in anger after 'my guy' was taken right in front of me.

It's a hard sell, trying to convince ANYONE that baseball is more complicated than "pitch ball, catch ball, hit ball."

It is, and it isn't.

Hence the beauty. :cool:

Banix12
09-22-2005, 05:14 PM
It's a hard sell, trying to convince ANYONE that baseball is more complicated than "pitch ball, catch ball, hit ball."

It is, and it isn't.

Hence the beauty. :cool:

I don't think it's that hard of a sell. I think even most of your die hard sabremetrics haters would admit to seeing underlying trends in the play of certain players. Much of which can be seen with the naked eye and doesn't need a lot of deep mathematical analysis.

However I think Baseball Prospectus itself is a really hard sell to a lot of people. Sheehan and many of the writers on that site take on an attitude that they are all-knowing and the single greatest source of baseball knowledge ever created.

I personally cannot stand Joe Sheehan. His whole attitude just irritates me. He makes some good points and some bad ones but really I just can't stand listening to the guy. Just the whole tone of his voice and his body language makes my stomach turn.

Everytime I see him I'm reminded of that old SNL sketch, "George Will's Sports Machine". Where George Will confuses Tommy Lasorda and Pete Rose with odd questions about baseball.