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voodoochile
09-19-2005, 10:34 AM
Okay, this is when RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html) really earns it's keep...

The Magic number is 11, but it is impossible for the Sox to get to 11 additional wins without beating the Toons at least once because they both only have 7/6 games against other teams left. Thus, they drop the number to 9 because those wins will each count double in the MN/RIOT standings.

In addition, they list the MN for playoffs as 8.

I'm sticking with my original thought that a sweep of the toons ends the season, heck, 6 out of 7 does it just fine...

Iwritecode
09-19-2005, 10:56 AM
Okay, this is when RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html) really earns it's keep...

The Magic number is 11, but it is impossible for the Sox to get to 11 additional wins without beating the Toons at least once because they both only have 7/6 games against other teams left. Thus, they drop the number to 9 because those wins will each count double in the MN/RIOT standings.

In addition, they list the MN for playoffs as 8.

I'm sticking with my original thought that a sweep of the toons ends the season, heck, 6 out of 7 does it just fine...

IMHO, the number we should really be looking at is 10.

If the Sox win 9 more games, they will finish up with 99 wins. With only 8 games against teams not from Cleveland at least one of those wins would have to come against the Jndjans. If Cleveland wins all their other games, they would also end up with 99 wins. If both teams finish above NY/Bos then I believe the Sox would win the division by default.

So any combination of Sox wins/Tribe loses that = 10 I think we'll be ok. :smile:

Flight #24
09-19-2005, 11:02 AM
IMO it's fairly simple. Win 1 of the 3 CLE games, and you're still in good shape to force the Tribe to have to sweep the final series to win the division. Win 2 of the 3 and I think the Sox will likely clinch prior to the final series.

Ol' No. 2
09-19-2005, 11:08 AM
Okay, this is when RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html) really earns it's keep...

The Magic number is 11, but it is impossible for the Sox to get to 11 additional wins without beating the Toons at least once because they both only have 7/6 games against other teams left. Thus, they drop the number to 9 because those wins will each count double in the MN/RIOT standings.

In addition, they list the MN for playoffs as 8.

I'm sticking with my original thought that a sweep of the toons ends the season, heck, 6 out of 7 does it just fine...But the magic number of 11 does not necessarily count only Sox wins. It's 11 Sox wins + Toons losses. So the Sox could theoretically lose all six head-to-head games, and still win the division if they win all 8 other games and the Toons lose 3 of their other games.

Palehose13
09-19-2005, 11:08 AM
IMO it's fairly simple. Win 1 of the 3 CLE games, and you're still in good shape to force the Tribe to have to sweep the final series to win the division. Win 2 of the 3 and I think the Sox will likely clinch prior to the final series.

I see the Sox winning 6 of their next 7, with Cleveland losing 6 of their next 7 so the Sox can clinch at home. :D:

kevingrt
09-19-2005, 11:10 AM
IMHO, the number we should really be looking at is 10.

If the Sox win 9 more games, they will finish up with 99 wins. With only 8 games against teams not from Cleveland at least one of those wins would have to come against the Jndjans. If Cleveland wins all their other games, they would also end up with 99 wins. If both teams finish above NY/Bos then I believe the Sox would win the division by default.

So any combination of Sox wins/Tribe loses that = 10 I think we'll be ok. :smile:

I would really like to see 100 wins though. Well AL Central first then 100 wins would be nice. Thanks for the site though voodoo.

infohawk
09-19-2005, 11:11 AM
First let me say that I want the Sox to win the division. That said, I think we should add wild card records to this discussion.

Our chief rival if the Sox were to fall behind the Indians would be the Yankees. The Sox currently have 90 wins and the Yanks have 85 wins. The following numbers show the victory total scenarios:

Sox
95 wins (5-9)
96 wins (6-8)
97 wins (7-7)
98 wins (8-7)

Yankees
95 wins (10-4)
96 wins (11-3)
97 wins (12-2)
98 wins (13-1)

I still think that 96-97 wins guarantees a playoff spot because I don't see the Yankees winning 11-12 more games with their pitching issues and other injuries to guys like Sheffield and Giambi. They have been using their bullpen quite a bit as well, so their could be a fatigue factor among their relief corps.

Anyway, I think that the Sox should at worst win another 5-7 games. Obviously I'm hoping for a better result.

jfinsocal
09-19-2005, 11:11 AM
To avoid confusion, the RIOT number is a "control your own destiny" number, i.e. if the Sox win 9 more games and finish with 99 wins they will tie (but win the tiebreaker) for the division lead no matter what Cleveland does. Similarly, 8 more wins for a total of 98 guarantees a tie for the wild card. It's not the same as the magic number.

TDog
09-19-2005, 11:22 AM
In theory, every team has a magic number until they are eliminated. I've seen no mention of Cleveland's magic number against the Sox, probably because the Toons don't have to beat the Sox to make the playoffs. Sox fans might be more optimistic if Cleveland's divisional magic number were published.

Remember a couple of months ago when people were saying that if the Sox play .500 for the rest of the season, Cleveland or Minnesota would have to go x to tie them, with x standing for some ridiculous winning percentage? OK, August wasn't .500 for the Sox, but the Tribe's winning percentage has been ridiculous, contributing to our default pessimism. I was told by a Clevelander a few years ago that he was expecting his team to beat the Sox in that '59 clincher to go on to the World Series, but today people forget how close it was.

Anyway, this week the Cell should have a postseason feel to it. Enjoy. I'll be happy when the Sox magic number is so well defined and so low in the single digits that I hear about it up here in Alaska.

cheeses_h_rice
09-19-2005, 11:47 AM
Cleveland's magic number over the White Sox is currently 18. At best, Cleveland can knock that down to 12 this series. At worst, it stays 18 while the Sox's number goes down to 5.

Said it before and I'll say it again: if the Sox can sweep this series, they're in the playoffs.

Iwritecode
09-19-2005, 12:08 PM
Cleveland's magic number over the White Sox is currently 18. At best, Cleveland can knock that down to 12 this series. At worst, it stays 18 while the Sox's number goes down to 5.

Said it before and I'll say it again: if the Sox can sweep this series, they're in the playoffs.

Of course because they'll have big Mo' on their side.

:)

slavko
09-19-2005, 02:31 PM
It's conceivable that in the season's final series vs. CLE, one team could clinch the division and the other (w/ Yankees help) the wild card on the same day! We might see two on-field celebrations at the same time.

(Didn't we see that in 2000 when the Sox clinched the division with a loss at MINN and both teams were on the field celebrating?)

NonetheLoaiza
09-19-2005, 02:35 PM
All...this...math...making...head...hurt...

Ol' No. 2
09-19-2005, 02:36 PM
All...this...math...making...head...hurt...There's a simple solution:

http://www.candidcritic.com/images/davis.jpg Just win, baby.

MarySwiss
09-19-2005, 02:38 PM
It's conceivable that in the season's final series vs. CLE, one team could clinch the division and the other (w/ Yankees help) the wild card on the same day! We might see two on-field celebrations at the same time.

(Didn't we see that in 2000 when the Sox clinched the division with a loss at MINN and both teams were on the field celebrating?)

If the Sox clinch during the final series, I won't see it because I will be under sedation. :cool:

Mohoney
09-19-2005, 02:54 PM
Everybody keeps mentioning the fact that we have 6 games left against the Jndjans, but half of them are played the last 3 days of the season. I'm hoping that these games can become meaningless.

If we take 2 of 3 in this series, 3 of 4 from Minnesota, and 3 of 4 from Detroit, there is a really good chance of those last 3 games being meaningless, as Cleveland would have to go 7-0 against KC and Tampa Bay just to be mathematically alive for a tie going into those last 3 games.

Here's to a 5-2 homestand to start it off.

You have to give the Toons some major credit here. We're at 90 wins and still sweating, and I'm positive that there is NOBODY here that would have thought that 90-58 would only be good for a 3.5 game lead right now.

But our division sucks, though.

mdep524
09-19-2005, 02:55 PM
You know what the ironic thing is about all this magic number talk?

The whole point of a "magic number" is to show the minimum effort needed to win the division by ONE game by the end of the season. In other words, the Sox could fulfill the magic number requirements and win the AL Central by ONE game on the last day of the season.

That seems to be what a lot of people here want the Sox to do- fulfill the magic number requirements. That's the main concern. And yet, at the same time, a lot of people here are upset and worried that the Sox lead is down to a "mere" 4 games in the loss column right now.

So be aware that looking for the bare minimum (i.e. magic number), will not allow you to rest easy when you are already fretting about a 4 game lead with 6 head to head match ups left. Barring a complete implosion, (and .500 ball over the last month does not count as a "complete implosion," only getting swept by the Indians would qualify) head to head matchups benefit the team in front standings-wise.

cheeses_h_rice
09-19-2005, 03:19 PM
(Didn't we see that in 2000 when the Sox clinched the division with a loss at MINN and both teams were on the field celebrating?)

No. The Sox celebrated when Cleveland lost, but the 2000 AL Wild Card was a certain team from Seattle that beat the Sox in the ALDS.

Iwritecode
09-19-2005, 03:32 PM
No. The Sox celebrated when Cleveland lost, but the 2000 AL Wild Card was a certain team from Seattle that beat the Sox in the ALDS.

The Twins were celebrating the fact that they won a game (via a walk-off homerun) while the Sox were celebrating the fact that they won the division.

IIRC, they showed the Cleveland score around the 8th inning.

It was kinda weird to see both teams celebrating on the field at the same time.

cheeses_h_rice
09-19-2005, 03:58 PM
The Twins were celebrating the fact that they won a game (via a walk-off homerun) while the Sox were celebrating the fact that they won the division.

IIRC, they showed the Cleveland score around the 8th inning.

It was kinda weird to see both teams celebrating on the field at the same time.

The Twins won that game 6-5 in 10 innings, just a few minutes after the Indians lost to give the clinch to the Sox. (http://www.detnews.com/2000/tigers/0009/25/tigers-125178.htm)

Such fond memories of this game:

But rookies Mark Buehrle and Lorenzo Barcelo were roughed up in the bottom of the seventh. Corey Koskie hit an RBI single off Buehrle, and Barcelo gave up a three-run homer to A.J. Pierzynski that made it 5-4.
Pinch-hitter Torii Hunter tripled to lead off the eighth off another rookie, Kelly Wunsch, and scored on Denny Hocking's single to tie the game at 5-5. Then Lawton hit his 13th homer, a drive off rookie Kevin Beirne (1-2).

Weird to see that Burly helped contribute to the loss. I remember it being solely on Kevin "Burned"'s shoulders, but obviously I was mistaken.

TDog
09-19-2005, 11:40 PM
It's conceivable that in the season's final series vs. CLE, one team could clinch the division and the other (w/ Yankees help) the wild card on the same day! We might see two on-field celebrations at the same time. ...

When people like Bob Costas were complaining about the wild card at its inception, this is precisely what they were complaining about.

With the Sox and Tribe holding the league's two best records, a couple of scenarios could make the division race meaningless, except to determine homefield advantage, which is ironic considering both the Sox and Tribe have better records on the road. And, of course, after playing six games in the last two weeks, the Sox and Indians could face a seven-game series in the ALCS.

No one was complaining about the wild card last year, though, when the ALCS came down to the Yankees and Red Sox, and the second-place team from the east ended up beating the first-place team from the east to go to the World Series.

Milw
09-20-2005, 12:04 AM
Five more wins is the target.

95 wins gets us the Wild Card, according to a statistical projection from BaseballProspectus.com. That site has been consistently targeting 94 or 95 wins by the AL wild card as the needed number. That means, including today's loss, the Sox need only go 5-8 the rest of the way to make the playoffs.

Don't sweat.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Iwritecode
09-21-2005, 11:48 AM
What the heck happened to the RIOT number site?

The standings are all messed up. It says the Sox only have 78 wins and are 9 games up... :?:

Hitmen77
09-21-2005, 11:53 AM
When people like Bob Costas were complaining about the wild card at its inception, this is precisely what they were complaining about.

Jackass Bob Costas would have a problem with ANY scenario that let the White Sox into the postseason. If they make it, get ready to hear more crap from him about how it's bad for baseball when teams that "no one cares" about are in the postseason. :angry:

voodoochile
09-21-2005, 11:58 AM
What the heck happened to the RIOT number site?

The standings are all messed up. It says the Sox only have 78 wins and are 9 games up... :?:

Yeah, but we've also got a 9 game lead...:D:

Maybe they need to clear the cookies on their server...

tebman
09-21-2005, 12:47 PM
Yeah, but we've also got a 9 game lead...:D:
Looks good to me! :cool:

Iwritecode
09-21-2005, 03:29 PM
Yeah, but we've also got a 9 game lead...:D:

Maybe they need to clear the cookies on their server...

They have it fixed now. It's still good to see that we have the biggest lead in the AL. I'd hate to be an A's or Angels fan right now...

Hendu
09-21-2005, 06:41 PM
I'd hate to be an A's or Angels fan right now...

Heck no, considering both teams have won world series within the last 20 years.

I know that's not what you were talking about but still...I want to know what it feels like for our team to win it all. :cool:

TommyJohn
09-21-2005, 06:49 PM
Jackass Bob Costas would have a problem with ANY scenario that let the White Sox into the postseason. If they make it, get ready to hear more crap from him about how it's bad for baseball when teams that "no one cares" about are in the postseason. :angry:

Boob will be upset if the White Sox get in the playoffs because the Sox and their
fans are supposed to be getting their just and eternal punishment for 1919.
Believe it or not, there are some morons out there that actually believe this
garbage. He's one of them.