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OutcastRadio
09-12-2005, 01:23 PM
Often, I see the stat published here that your Magic Number to make the playoffs is 15. That number is incorrect.

Your Magic Number to make the playoffs is 14.

15 is indeed the number to win the Central Division, but in order to make it to the postseason, you only need to stay ahead of the NY Yankees....and that requires only 14 more WSox wins/Yank losses.

New York is sitting in the 2nd slot for Wild Card with a 80-62 record. Their best possible record is 100-62, if they win every single game left. Therefore, the Sox only need win 14 games to give them 101 wins and put it mathematically out of reach.

While Cleveland may be the team you need to hold off to win the Central, they're not the team you need to make the playoffs. New York is the lowest one.

Just thought I'd clarify that one for you.

OutcastRadio
09-12-2005, 01:24 PM
And yes, I know you don't want to think Wild Card...but that little "x" will get placed beside your name in the standings once you get to 14.

cheeses_h_rice
09-12-2005, 01:30 PM
Awfully presumptuous, aren't we?

:)

ron_j_galt
09-12-2005, 01:31 PM
Should the A's take the West, the Sox would need to finish higher than the Angels, and the magic number for doing that is 15. Should the Yankees take the East, the Sox's magic number would be 17. Neither of these are likely to happen, but there's no one team that can be identified now as "must beat to win the WC", which in and of itself is probably a non-issue for the Sox.

OutcastRadio
09-12-2005, 01:34 PM
Should the A's take the West, the Sox would need to finish higher than the Angels, and the magic number for doing that is 15. Should the Yankees take the East, the Sox's magic number would be 17. Neither of these are likely to happen, but there's no one team that can be identified now as "must beat to win the WC", which in and of itself is probably a non-issue for the Sox.


If you win 14 games, you are still mathematically higher than Oakland. And should Oakland win the West, they are higher than the Angels, which puts them below you.

OutcastRadio
09-12-2005, 01:35 PM
Awfully presumptuous, aren't we?

:)

I wasn't going to say so, but gaining 4 games in 4 days does that to a guy.

But you'll notice that I did enter the forums trying to boost spirits by lowering your Magic Number for you....I should get bonus points for that, I hope.

CHISOXFAN13
09-12-2005, 01:36 PM
Or the Sox can continue their dominance of Cleveland and make this whole thread a moot point.

I vote for that option.

ron_j_galt
09-12-2005, 01:40 PM
If you win 14 games, you are still mathematically higher than Oakland. And should Oakland win the West, they are higher than the Angels, which puts them below you.

I realized that right after I posted, it's been a bad logic day for me.

cheeses_h_rice
09-12-2005, 01:44 PM
Or the Sox can continue their dominance of Cleveland and make this whole thread a moot point.

I vote for that option.

If the Sox can play Cleveland .500 the rest of the way, they'll

1) take 6 games off their magic number

and

2) take 6 more days off the calendar

OutcastRadio
09-12-2005, 01:45 PM
I realized that right after I posted, it's been a bad logic day for me.

No sweat. At least I didn't use the words "you muttonhead" when I responded.

Maybe on the Yankees board I'll do that, but not at WSI.

CHISOXFAN13
09-12-2005, 01:49 PM
If the Sox can play Cleveland .500 the rest of the way, they'll

1) take 6 games off their magic number

and

2) take 6 more days off the calendar

I think people have lost perspective of that. Splitting those games is not a very tall order, IMO. It's over if the Sox can accomplish that.

ron_j_galt
09-12-2005, 01:58 PM
I think people have lost perspective of that. Splitting those games is not a very tall order, IMO. It's over if the Sox can accomplish that.

That's exactly right. If the Sox and Indians split those games, then the Sox' Central magic number would be 9 (or 1/3 of the 27 remaining outcomes for the Sox and Indians). At that point, it's probably over. They'd have to go 1-5 to make it interesting.

Jurr
09-12-2005, 02:02 PM
This Cleveland crap is nothing but a more exaggerated version of last year, when the Indians got super hot and crept up on the Twins. We all know how that ended.

Mr. White Sox
09-12-2005, 02:04 PM
The "riot" number for clinching a tie for a playoff spot is 13...not ideal, but once that gets to 0, there's a guaranteed playoff game for the WC spot.

BeviBall!
09-12-2005, 02:11 PM
This Cleveland crap is nothing but a more exaggerated version of last year, when the Indians got super hot and crept up on the Twins. We all know how that ended.

Maybe. You have to give them credit, though. They are the best team in baseball when it matters most, in this part of the regular season. We'll see what Zito and Haren can do to slow them down.

daveeym
09-12-2005, 02:16 PM
No sweat. At least I didn't use the words "you muttonhead" when I responded.

Maybe on the Yankees board I'll do that, but not at WSI. The preferred put downs on the board would be Cheese Stick or Turkey Leg, not Mutton head.

beckett21
09-12-2005, 02:21 PM
Maybe. You have to give them credit, though. They are the best team in baseball when it matters most, in this part of the regular season. We'll see what Zito and Haren can do to slow them down.

When it matters MOST is October. What they do in August and September is meaningless if they don't make the playoffs. Meaningless.

The season is a marathon, not a sprint. The Indians have not earned anything yet, and I doubt highly that they can continue to play .800 ball or whatever ungodly clip they are playing at right now, much like we couldn't expect the Sox to continue to play .700 ball all year.

I'm not the least bit worried. Call me crazy, call me stupid, whatever. :nuts:

Paulwny
09-12-2005, 02:34 PM
[QUOTE=beckett21]When it matters MOST is October. What they do in August and September is meaningless if they don't make the playoffs. Meaningless.

The season is a marathon, not a sprint. The Indians have not earned anything yet, and I doubt highly that they can continue to play .800 ball or whatever ungodly clip they are playing at right now, much like we couldn't expect the Sox to continue to play .700 ball all year.

I'm not the least bit worried. Call me crazy, call me stupid, whatever. :nuts:
[/QUOT

Agree, its still to early to panic and start circling the wagons.
Every game the tribe plays is a must win situation, puts a lot of pressure on a young inexperienced team, look for their bats to cool down.

beckett21
09-12-2005, 02:39 PM
Agree, its still to early to panic and start circling the wagons.
Every game the tribe plays is a must win situation, puts a lot of pressure on a young inexperienced team, look for their bats to cool down.

People need to remember who the pressure is on in this situation. They HAVE to keep winning. The Sox just need to stay afloat and not lose out.

The pressure is all on them. Not saying the Sox should be complacent, and obviously the quicker they clinch the better. But the pressure is squarely on Cleveland.

chisoxfanatic
09-12-2005, 02:40 PM
I'm not the least bit worried. Call me crazy, call me stupid, whatever. :nuts:

Neither am I! Whenever the divisional lead seems to dwindle, it has risen back up to a comfortable lead once again. Cleveland is not the Oakland A's of a couple years ago who went on that three-week winning streak without a loss. They WILL lose more games this season.

KyWhiSoxFan
09-12-2005, 03:01 PM
Cleveland is not the Oakland A's of a couple years ago who went on that three-week winning streak without a loss. They WILL lose more games this season.

If they don't lose, there's not much we can do about it (other than our 6 games with them).

If the Sox just take care of business against everyone else, they will make the playoffs. Frankly, I'd rather play the BoSox, so I'm not too concerned either way.

doublem23
09-12-2005, 03:31 PM
Maybe. You have to give them credit, though. They are the best team in baseball when it matters most, in this part of the regular season. We'll see what Zito and Haren can do to slow them down.

Uh, no, these games mean the same as the games in April when we rocked the American League. When the Sox win the division, it won't matter if they had a 3 game lead on April 3, a 15 game lead on August first or a 6 game lead on September 12. The 1st regular season game of the year and the 162nd are all equally important.

The games aren't any more important, it's just whiny babies who are completely irrational and just moan and whine about every game like this is the ****ing NFL. Of course, these are the same clowns who will be high fiving their pals saying, "see, I told you so," when the Sox clinch.

So yes, our Magic Number is 15. Yours is 19.

DumpJerry
09-12-2005, 04:30 PM
I'm not worried. I'm not worried. I'm not worried. Ok. I feel better.

Actually, I am not worried. I think what we're feeling is disapointment that the Sox aren't kicking butt day after day like they did earlier this year, but let's keep in mind, they still have an incredible won-loss record. All season we've said "all teams lose 60 games sooner or later." Well, the Sox have yet to lose number 60.

BeviBall!
09-12-2005, 06:14 PM
When it matters MOST is October. What they do in August and September is meaningless if they don't make the playoffs. Meaningless.

Of course, which is why I stated that they're playing well in the stretch run, in the regular season. I appreciate a sense of urgency... the same way we play when in our own division. That's why I'm not worried about September.

Any team that plays .800 ball for a month should be complimented, though.

BeviBall!
09-12-2005, 06:16 PM
The games aren't any more important, it's just whiny babies who are completely irrational and just moan and whine about every game like this is the ****ing NFL.

True. Although momentum is the x-factor... and a lot can change in the final 3 weeks. Realistically, the Sox can grow a 10 game lead again and go into October on fire. Here's hoping KC, Minny and Detroit supply the gasoline.

voodoochile
09-12-2005, 06:23 PM
According to Riot (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html), the magic number is 14 for the division and 13 for the WC. I think it has to do with the fact that if the Sox and Tribe tie for the division, the Sox win the division and the Tribe becomes the WC based on H2H record this year, but I admit that I am guessing here. The classic Magic number to clinch the division is indeed 15, so I don't know what factor they are using to drop it by one.

SouthSide_HitMen
09-12-2005, 06:28 PM
According to Riot (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html), the magic number is 14 for the division and 13 for the WC. I think it has to do with the fact that if the Sox and Tribe tie for the division, the Sox win the division and the Tribe becomes the WC based on H2H record this year, but I admit that I am guessing here. The classic Magic number to clinch the division is indeed 15, so I don't know what factor they are using to drop it by one.

The factor is the Riot number is the number to clinch a tie for the title. 15 is to clinch outright victory of the division.

BeviBall!
09-12-2005, 06:38 PM
According to Riot (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html), the magic number is 14 for the division and 13 for the WC. I think it has to do with the fact that if the Sox and Tribe tie for the division, the Sox win the division and the Tribe becomes the WC based on H2H record this year, but I admit that I am guessing here. The classic Magic number to clinch the division is indeed 15, so I don't know what factor they are using to drop it by one.

I don't think H2H matters... wouldn't there be a 1-game playoff?