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Frater Perdurabo
09-06-2005, 09:12 PM
Konerko's current deal expires at the end of the 2005 season. IIRC, Paulie said the Sox have told him they will talk about a new deal after this season.

This is not a thread to argue about whether Paulie is over- or underpaid, over- or underrated or over- or underappreciated. This IS a thread to discuss what we might happen this offseason based on the evidence we have seen to date.

So, who thinks he stays? Who thinks he's a goner?

Chips
09-06-2005, 09:13 PM
HE STAYS.

After we win the World Series, he definetly stays. Kenny Williams wants more than one title, and Walnuts is the best power hitter we got.

mrwag
09-06-2005, 09:15 PM
I'm torn. He's so hot or cold, and it seems like he's not the one to count on in the clutch. I dont think we have any better options, however, so long as the price isn't too high.

Fred Manrique
09-06-2005, 09:17 PM
So, who thinks he stays? Who thinks he's a goner?

I think based on the way he has played the second half of the season, Kenny will understand that getting rid of your teams best hitter could really hurt the team's improving popularity.

Whether we win it or not, we're headed in the right direction and taking Paulie off that train could slow the overall momentum of the team down.

Chisox003
09-06-2005, 09:18 PM
Konerko's current deal expires at the end of the 2005 season. IIRC, Paulie said the Sox have told him they will talk about a new deal after this season.

This is not a thread to argue about whether Paulie is over- or underpaid, over- or underrated or over- or underappreciated. This IS a thread to discuss what we might happen this offseason based on the evidence we have seen to date.

So, who thinks he stays? Who thinks he's a goner?

Ohh boy, here we go .... I accidently started a Konerko argument in yesterdays game thread, and now this.....

Over/under posts until this turns into a HUGE argument about whats in bold: 15

And for the record, I would like to see Konerko stay

SoXPriDe33
09-06-2005, 09:22 PM
I want to see Konerko stay here on the South Side unless KW gets the permission to go out and spend on a high quality 1B and if there are any that are out there after this season to go and get.

HotelWhiteSox
09-06-2005, 09:26 PM
After we win the World Series, he definetly stays. Kenny Williams wants more than one title, and Walnuts is the best power hitter we got.

I think those who voted for the 1st option are voting on what they want to happen, not what they think would happen. I'd like having him at under 10 mil, but not happening. That's money that can also be spent on another power hitter or open a trade to one

Frater Perdurabo
09-06-2005, 09:33 PM
I personally believe the writing is on the wall that the Sox do not plan to re-sign Paulie unless he gives them a deep hometown discount. This is not a knock on Paulie. This is just my interpretation based on evidence available to date.

For comparison purposes, last year the Sox offered Maggs a multi-year deal for top dollar (with only a bit of money deferred) even after he suffered the serious knee injury. The Sox wanted to keep Maggs, but obviously he rejected their offer. However, to our knowledge to date the Sox have not offered Paulie any kind of new deal or extension. This speaks volumes.

Typically the Sox do not allow players they desperately want to keep to reach the free agent market. Consider Robin Ventura. The Sox allowed him to become a free agent and then gave him an "obligatory" low-ball offer knowing he would reject it. Contrast that with the fact that the Sox did not allow Frank Thomas to get anywhere close to free agency during his prime. Same with Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia.

Because the Sox have not yet offered Konerko an extension, it's pretty clear to me they do not intend to get in a bidding war for his services this offseason. With Boston and both New York teams seemingly interested in a power-hitting first baseman, it's almost certain Konerko will have several huge offers to consider. So, IMHO the only way he stays with the Sox is if he is willing to give them a deep hometown discount, probably for less money per year than he's making now.

Unregistered
09-06-2005, 09:34 PM
I'm torn. He's so hot or cold, and it seems like he's not the one to count on in the clutch. I dont think we have any better options, however, so long as the price isn't too high.He's a real "half season" kind of hitter - and it is annoying as hell. On the other hand, he hits 40 HR, 100RBI with a .275-.280 average. He really is the one BIG bopper that we have in our lineup - and I'm not sure who replaces him if he leaves.

Frater Perdurabo
09-06-2005, 09:39 PM
What we need to understand is that unless the Sox make him an offer before Nov. 1, Paulie will become a free agent. The Sox could offer him arbitration, but then the ball is in his court to accept or reject arbitration.

After Nov. 1, it is entirely up to Konerko to decide where he signs.

Palehose13
09-06-2005, 09:41 PM
What we need to understand is that unless the Sox make him an offer before Nov. 1, Paulie will become a free agent. The Sox could offer him arbitration, but then the ball is in his court to accept or reject arbitration.

After Nov. 1, it is entirely up to Konerko to decide where he signs.

Yep, and I don't see him staying here.

ilsox7
09-06-2005, 09:42 PM
He's a real "half season" kind of hitter - and it is annoying as hell. On the other hand, he hits 40 HR, 100RBI with a .275-.280 average. He really is the one BIG bopper that we have in our lineup - and I'm not sure who replaces him if he leaves.

Can you even begin to imagine how badly he'd be torched in the NY or Boston papers when he has goes thru one of his 81 game slumps? Yikes! :o:

Frater Perdurabo
09-06-2005, 09:45 PM
Yep, and I don't see him staying here.

That's what I'm trying to get folks to understand... :rolleyes:

mweflen
09-06-2005, 09:53 PM
I think he'll take a multiyear deal for 9, 10, and 11 mil, with an option for a 4th year.

Mr. White Sox
09-06-2005, 09:56 PM
What we need to understand is that unless the Sox make him an offer before Nov. 1, Paulie will become a free agent. The Sox could offer him arbitration, but then the ball is in his court to accept or reject arbitration.

After Nov. 1, it is entirely up to Konerko to decide where he signs.

Which is why he'll be making 11-13mil a year in Boston next year. Lame, but it is so.


EDIT: If he declines the offer of arbitration, do the Sox get compensation in draft form?

Frater Perdurabo
09-06-2005, 10:02 PM
EDIT: If he declines the offer of arbitration, do the Sox get compensation in draft form?

I believe the answer is yes.

Optipessimism
09-06-2005, 10:02 PM
This all seems too weird to me. If the Sox let Paulie walk that means we have to make TWO big trades for a bat. As it is right now we need more power for the left side and this has to be addressed in some fashion over the offseason. If PK leaves we become exposed even more and perhaps become forced to vastly overpay for someone else.

I know Ozzie wants speed, and I agree that speed is great to have, but 1B is a power position! There's not going to be anything out there that is better than what we have in Paulie, so the only thing that I can think of by letting Paulie walk would be to move Dye to 1B, move Rowand to RF, and put Anderson in CF. If the Sox did that and then also made a deal for a big LH bat to DH and fill in somewhere else I would be happy.

Daver
09-06-2005, 10:08 PM
I believe the answer is yes.

The Sox would get a first and second round pick, he will be a type "A" FA.

Optipessimism
09-06-2005, 10:20 PM
One more thing I'm worried about with PK:

I'm scared that if we let him walk he'll catch Derreck Lee syndrome. Derreck was known for being more of a second half player who starts off cold but then gets hot just like Paulie.

Here's something to think about:

PK hit .223 in April and May combined (41 / 184) before getting hot. If he had had just 11 more hits out of 184 AB's he would have hit .283. If you now take that average and add it to what he has done in the second half so far (up to Sept 05), Paulie is hitting .300 right now and probably has a few more HR's.

Now imagine Paulie getting hot early. For 2 years in a row he has put up some nice numbers even after going through horrible stretches. He is just now entering his prime and if he could stay consistent during the first half of the year, he could put up some monster numbers especially in the Cell. Basically, a PK who hits .300 in the first half and stays consistent can realistically post a line something like .310 45 140. How would you feel about taking this bat out of the lineup?

EDIT: As if to confirm my assumptions, PK hit a HR as I finished typing this.

Mr. White Sox
09-06-2005, 10:27 PM
Yes, that's a definite possibility, but the fact of the matter is this isn't about whether or not he should stay (he should). It's about whether or not he'll be back next year. I say no, Boston.

mr_genius
09-06-2005, 10:28 PM
EDIT: As if to confirm my assumptions, PK hit a HR as I finished typing this.

he's trying to juice up his stats for bargaining chips in the Yankmees / BoSox bidding war

DaleJRFan
09-06-2005, 10:40 PM
He is, without a doubt, no matter what Ozzie says, this Team's offensive MVP and has been for the past two seasons. He has to stay, especially considering his "Captain" role in the clubhouse.

DaleJRFan
09-06-2005, 10:41 PM
he's trying to juice up his stats for bargaining chips in the Yankmees / BoSox bidding war

:tealpolice:

Unregistered
09-06-2005, 10:51 PM
I actually think the Sox will make a real big effort to re-sign PK. It's no secret that he's a fan favorite and has said more than once that he loves living in Chicago (and not just in a bargaining position kinda-way). I think JR and Co. will look at intangibles like that and really make him a solid offer. Whether he takes it or not is another story...

MarySwiss
09-06-2005, 10:57 PM
Where does he play? Oh, I dunno--first base?

Fuller_Schettman
09-06-2005, 11:06 PM
Interesting stat:

Paulie's GIDPK numbers:
1999- 1 GIDP every 29.68 PA (19 total)
2000- 1/26.64 (22 total)
2001- 1/38.24 (17 total)
2002- 1/37.06 (17 total)
2003- 1/17.68 (28 total)
2004- 1/27.96 (23 total)
2005- 1/69.88 (8 total)

This year he grounds into a DP less than twice per month. Impressive!

SOXfnNlansing
09-06-2005, 11:09 PM
I think the Mets will throw a ton of cash at his feet....... he'll have to grab it while he can:(:

Jjav829
09-06-2005, 11:57 PM
My guess is that he's back with the Sox, but it's really still too early to tell. There are a lot of factors that will determine how hard the Sox try to keep him. First, and the biggest, what happens with Frank? It's pretty clear that Frank won't be back under his current contract. If he comes back it will be with a new contract. If Frank isn't back, that opens more money to pay Konerko and creates a bigger need to keep him.

It also depends on the possible replacements. KW is most likely going to have to go outside the organization to replace Konerko. Even if KW considered the Dye-to-1B move, that only weakens the offense more. As it is, KW is already going to need to try to add a bat in the offseason. If Konerko goes, with Dye to 1B and Anderson to the OF, that only leaves the offense weaker. So it becomes a matter of looking outside the organization. Well, to acquire a big bat, the Sox are going to need to give up one or two top prospects. So the question becomes: Is allowing Konerko to walk and using prospects to replace him more worthwhile than keeping Konerko for an extra few million and keeping the prospects.

It's a tough call. I suppose the playoffs could help change KW's mind.

RKMeibalane
09-06-2005, 11:59 PM
My guess is that he's back with the Sox, but it's really still too early to tell. There are a lot of factors that will determine how hard the Sox try to keep him. First, and the biggest, what happens with Frank? It's pretty clear that Frank won't be back under his current contract. If he comes back it will be with a new contract. If Frank isn't back, that opens more money to pay Konerko and creates a bigger need to keep him.

It also depends on the possible replacements. KW is most likely going to have to go outside the organization to replace Konerko. Even if KW considered the Dye-to-1B move, that only weakens the offense more. As it is, KW is already going to need to try to add a bat in the offseason. If Konerko goes, with Dye to 1B and Anderson to the OF, that only leaves the offense weaker. So it becomes a matter of looking outside the organization. Well, to acquire a big bat, the Sox are going to need to give up one or two top prospects. So the question becomes: Is allowing Konerko to walk and using prospects to replace him more worthwhile than keeping Konerko for an extra few million and keeping the prospects.

It's a tough call. I suppose the playoffs could help change KW's mind.

I agree. And for the record, as time goes on, I think it's becoming more and more likely that Frank won't be back. Maybe that money can be used to sign another quality infielder.

voodoochile
09-06-2005, 11:59 PM
Interesting stat:

Paulie's GIDPK numbers:
1999- 1 GIDP every 29.68 PA (19 total)
2000- 1/26.64 (22 total)
2001- 1/38.24 (17 total)
2002- 1/37.06 (17 total)
2003- 1/17.68 (28 total)
2004- 1/27.96 (23 total)
2005- 1/69.88 (8 total)

This year he grounds into a DP less than twice per month. Impressive!

yeah, I'm sure the fact that the guy hitting in front of him isn't name Frank Thomas has nothing to do with it either. :rolleyes:

I bet PK is seing a LOT less at bats with a runner on first than he has in years past.

Ol' No. 2
09-07-2005, 12:08 AM
yeah, I'm sure the fact that the guy hitting in front of him isn't name Frank Thomas has nothing to do with it either. :rolleyes:

I bet PK is seing a LOT less at bats with a runner on first than he has in years past.2005: total AB: 489, runner on 1st: 150, 30.7%
2004: total AB: 563, runner on 1st: 178, 31.6%
2003: total AB: 444, runner on 1st: 157, 35.4%
2002: total AB: 570, runner on 1st: 187, 32.8%

Doesn't come close to explaining a factor of two difference in GIDP rate.

doublem23
09-07-2005, 12:11 AM
Interesting stat:

Paulie's GIDPK numbers:
1999- 1 GIDP every 29.68 PA (19 total)
2000- 1/26.64 (22 total)
2001- 1/38.24 (17 total)
2002- 1/37.06 (17 total)
2003- 1/17.68 (28 total)
2004- 1/27.96 (23 total)
2005- 1/69.88 (8 total)

This year he grounds into a DP less than twice per month. Impressive!

Well, I think a bit of that has to do with the fact that instead of hitting behind Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez, he is now batting third behind Scott Podsednik and Tadahito Iguchi.

Anyways, I'm also torn on Konerko. It will be a bit bittersweet to see him leave, he's been the one rock that's really been here day in, day out for the last 6-7 years, but unfortunately, I don't see the Sox being able to/wanting to pony up the kind of dough Boston and New York are going to.

Hagan
09-07-2005, 12:21 AM
I want him to stay more than anything but its going to be tough to sign him. He is going to be one of the top free agents next season and will go for a lot of money.

Fuller_Schettman
09-07-2005, 12:39 AM
Well, I think a bit of that has to do with the fact that instead of hitting behind Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez, he is now batting third behind Scott Podsednik and Tadahito Iguchi.


PK has only 4 AB this season in the #3 spot. All others ABs are cleanup.

Also to Voodoo's point using 2003 as a comparison, Frank had an OBP of .390 compared to .311 this year for Carl. That translates to a baserunner two times more each week with Frank than with Carl...

14konerko
09-07-2005, 12:47 AM
as much as it pains me to say, i believe he will sign with the Mets

HITMEN OF 77
09-07-2005, 12:52 AM
He better stay here, the Sox would be stupid to let him go. Yes he's my favorite player but still. I don't care about hot/cold west/east streaks, I care about averages. Since Paulie joined the Sox in 1999 his average season looks something like .278 ba, 31 hr, 98 rbi and this isn't including this season. Plus he's an above avergage denfensive player. Verdict = White Sox sign him long term.

maurice
09-07-2005, 11:05 AM
I think he gets offered > $10 mil. / year from Boston or NYY on the open market. I hope he doesn't get that much from us, because that would be a huge percentage of our likely payroll. IMHO, it's unrealistic to expect a "hometown discount" of less than $10 mil. / year.

mikehuff
09-07-2005, 11:09 AM
Hawk called him the captain last night, but I see him on the Red Sox next year.

Hangar18
09-07-2005, 11:17 AM
Paulie is a MET next year. The way they covet American League players is disturbing. They will OVERPAY, which is why he will go there. He will attempt to stay with the SOX for cheaper, but they will push him out the door,
then talk about how he was a cancer in the clubhouse, a selfish player, in if only for himself, and how "he wanted to explore other options"

hawkjt
09-07-2005, 11:18 AM
Prior to this year the sox had four run producers in Carlos,Frank,Maggs and Paulie. If Paulie leaves that could leave zero left,pending Franks ankle and contract. We need to retain at least one of these guys. Too late for Maggs and Carlos and Frank is winding down. That leaves Paulie. He is probably the least productive of the four but without him we are almost Minny-like.

Sweeney gets 11 million a year and when you look at his numbers,his injuries keep them down, they are not at paulies level. Re-sign him.

HITMEN OF 77
09-07-2005, 11:22 AM
Prior to this year the sox had four run producers in Carlos,Frank,Maggs and Paulie. If Paulie leaves that could leave zero left,pending Franks ankle and contract. We need to retain at least one of these guys. Too late for Maggs and Carlos and Frank is winding down. That leaves Paulie. He is probably the least productive of the four but without him we are almost Minny-like.

Sweeney gets 11 million a year and when you look at his numbers,his injuries keep them down, they are not at paulies level. Re-sign him.

Good point. Also with Frank's health a HUGE ? I can't see letting our best hitter go, this would be a foolish mistake IMO. It's possible, if Konerko were to sign with the Sox on 6 or 7 year deal, he could be the all time leader in hr's in Sox history.

mikehuff
09-07-2005, 11:25 AM
Well if Overbay's available for trade, like they say he is, then I wouldn't mind using Paulie's money to upgrade 3B and/or SS. I just can think of who to get.

NonetheLoaiza
09-07-2005, 11:25 AM
I think honestly, it is going to be the Yankees or Dodgers, because they will overpay big time for him. However, I would like to think that Konerko would take a little less money to back to back championships.

skottyj242
09-07-2005, 11:33 AM
I firmly believe that Paulie will resign and stay with us for a good while but on the other hand I can see Paulie having a HUGE posteason and drive his stock way up just like Beltran did last year.

jshanahanjr
09-07-2005, 11:41 AM
The Sox should offer him 4 years 11 million per and see if he bites. I love Paulie, but I can't see going over 11 a year.

spiffie
09-07-2005, 11:51 AM
I would be curious to see what viable options people have to better spend the money that would equal PK's very solid production. And I have to say first off that any answer that begins with "trade for Lyle Overbay" is not one that sounds very good, since we're dependent at that point on getting another team to give us what we want for a price we want to pay and we saw how well that worked out this year at the trade deadline. So, instead of spending $10mm per on Paulie, who would those folks who want him gone put that money towards that will not make our already middle of the pack offense even weaker?

SoxinAZ
09-07-2005, 11:57 AM
PK just built a big house in Scottsdale AZ that even has a batting cage in it so I can't see him going to a team that doesn't have spring training in AZ. I think he'll get about 9 mil for the first year with 10, and 11 for the following years with some performance clauses that kick in if his hitting is up to par.

maurice
09-07-2005, 12:15 PM
Most of the arguments in favor of re-signing Konerko to a huge contract were made in favor of keeping Lee and Ordonez. They were wrong then, and they're wrong now. It turns out that spending > 10% of your payroll on a single position player is a bad thing, even when the player is better than Konerko. KW learned this lesson.

Frater's right. By this time last season, KW went to great lengths to try to resign Ordonez but failed. It turns out that his "failure" was a very good thing. As a result of this lesson, KW hasn't even tried to resign Konerko and refused to pick up a huge chunk of Griffey's contract.

As KW illustrated last offseason, you don't replace the production with a single player. You get a much cheaper replacement and upgrade elsewhere. The obvious success of that approach and the abject failuire of the opposite approach counters most of the arguments in favor of paying Konerko $11+ mil. / year. The Red Sox and the Yankees might be able to fit that into their bloated payrolls, but the Sox can't.

For specific proposals on how to spend the money, check out the 100 other threads on this exact subject.

wdelaney72
09-07-2005, 12:18 PM
1. Red Sox
2. Mets

His value is rising on a daily basis. If he performs well in the post-season, I can see Boston giving him an offer he can't refuse.

Frater Perdurabo
09-07-2005, 12:22 PM
And I have to say first off that any answer that begins with "trade for Lyle Overbay" is not one that sounds very good, since we're dependent at that point on getting another team to give us what we want for a price we want to pay and we saw how well that worked out this year at the trade deadline.

You do understand, though, that trade dynamics change greatly from mid-season to off-season.

However (and I'm not picking on you, spiffie), this is devolving into a thread about what people WANT when I intended it to be a thread about what people THINK might happen, based on evidence available to date.

Some folks are so wrapped up in their own private movies in which they are starring that they can't step outside their own infatuations and knee-jerk reactions to examine a situation with detatched objectivity.
:kukoo:

KyWhiSoxFan
09-07-2005, 12:25 PM
Whether we can re-sign Konerko is simply economics given the total payroll we can afford.

Does anyone know the specific financial effects are on making the ALDS, reaching the ALCS, and reaching the World Series? Does each progressive step mean millions more in revenue to the WhiSox? If so, and we get more revenue this year, we have more to spend next year. (I am assuming management would want to keep a successful team intact to reap more benefits in 2006. At least JR did that with the Bulls, for some time, anyway.)

spiffie
09-07-2005, 12:28 PM
You do understand, though, that trade dynamics change greatly from mid-season to off-season.

However (and I'm not picking on you, spiffie), this is devolving into a thread about what people WANT when I intended it to be a thread about what people THINK might happen, based on evidence available to date.

Some folks are so wrapped up in their own private movies in which they are starring that they can't step outside their own infatuations and knee-jerk reactions to examine a situation with detatched objectivity.
:kukoo:
I agree trade dynamics shift. However, in some of the many other threads about this topic it's seemed to me like people talk about being able to trade for Overbay this offseason as though he's already loaded into a giant UPS box and ready to be shipped to Chicago. Yes, it's possible that Milwaukee would get rid of him, and it is possible that they might ship him to us. But that is far from a certainty.

That said, I do think Paulie is gone at the end of the year. One of the 2 big AL East teams is not making the playoffs this year, and that will surely trigger some massive overspending from that part of the country, and as the best 1B on the market this offseason, PK is likely to benefit from that.

Frater Perdurabo
09-07-2005, 12:37 PM
Frater's right. By this time last season, KW went to great lengths to try to resign Ordonez but failed. It turns out that his "failure" was a very good thing. As a result of this lesson, KW hasn't even tried to resign Konerko and refused to pick up a huge chunk of Griffey's contract.

As KW illustrated last offseason, you don't replace the production with a single player. You get a much cheaper replacement and upgrade elsewhere. The obvious success of that approach and the abject failuire of the opposite approach counters most of the arguments in favor of paying Konerko $11+ mil. / year. The Red Sox and the Yankees might be able to fit that into their bloated payrolls, but the Sox can't.

Maurice is dead-on. I'm not advocating either way on this, but the arguments AGAINST investing >10% of the playroll in one position player already have won - precisely because of the Sox won-loss record this year!

Fourteen more wins in 25 remaining games would give the Sox 100 wins, which would be the best single-season win total in franchise history and probably will get KW the "Executive of the Year" award. Unless KW does a complete 180, he's going to stick with this plan that has proven so successful.

If you read between the lines (no contract offer to Konerko fits the history of previous Sox who left as free agents; great success this year after not re-signing Maggs; emphasis on and success with pitching, speed and defense) it's obvious that Konerko's not going to get a fat contract offer from the Sox. Consequently, the only way he stays is if he gives them a very deep hometown discount for far less than $9 million per year.

My honest advice to the fans of Paulie is to prepare yourselves to have your hearts broken.

AZChiSoxFan
09-07-2005, 12:40 PM
My honest advice to the fans of Paulie is to prepare yourselves to have your hearts broken.

You mean both of them on WSI?

hawkjt
09-07-2005, 01:15 PM
Freddy is making 9 million. I admit pitching might be an exception to your rule on paying any one player too much but I still maintain that an overbay or lesser player does not mean upgrading elsewhere. You can only play 9 each day and at least a couple better be able to produce runs. Where do we upgrade? At third? Who is available? No one on the FA market. Shortstop?

Look, we have to re-sign AJ, Garland, and that leaves Paulie. I do not see us going out and getting a high priced third baseman or first baseman to replace his hitting. The pitching is already solid. Where do we upgrade? I just think the easy thing to do is retain the chemistry and solid play from a great season rather than try to re-invent the wheel with a bunch of moves.

As Hawk said last nite- Ozzie has indicated his captain is Paulie. You need someone like that on a good team.

A_ROW33
09-07-2005, 01:16 PM
PK just built a big house in Scottsdale AZ that even has a batting cage in it so I can't see him going to a team that doesn't have spring training in AZ. I think he'll get about 9 mil for the first year with 10, and 11 for the following years with some performance clauses that kick in if his hitting is up to par.

I voted for he'd end up somewhere else. My gut just says that some NL west team will try to become the first one in that division with any talent and sign a couple free agents, given your info I'd say he's going to Arizona-although they might be tenative to given the sexon debacle

Ol' No. 2
09-07-2005, 01:38 PM
Maurice is dead-on. I'm not advocating either way on this, but the arguments AGAINST investing >10% of the playroll in one position player already have won - precisely because of the Sox won-loss record this year!

Fourteen more wins in 25 remaining games would give the Sox 100 wins, which would be the best single-season win total in franchise history and probably will get KW the "Executive of the Year" award. Unless KW does a complete 180, he's going to stick with this plan that has proven so successful.

If you read between the lines (no contract offer to Konerko fits the history of previous Sox who left as free agents; great success this year after not re-signing Maggs; emphasis on and success with pitching, speed and defense) it's obvious that Konerko's not going to get a fat contract offer from the Sox. Consequently, the only way he stays is if he gives them a very deep hometown discount for far less than $9 million per year.

My honest advice to the fans of Paulie is to prepare yourselves to have your hearts broken.A few flaws in that argument:

1. Obviously spending too large of a fraction of your total payroll on one player is detrimental, but 10% is a completely arbitrary figure, whose source is no more significant than the number of appendages on your hands. Is 11% catastrophic? I'm sure if you look back at recent WS winners, you'll find some with single players accounting for 10% or more of their total payroll.

2. Given the increased revenues from increased (A-word deleted to keep out of roadhouse), the Sox should have another $10M+ to spend next year. More when you count playoff revenues. That would put the total payroll in the mid-80's. Paying one player even $10M is not that large of a chunk.

If you're asking what I think will happen, I expect one or more teams to offer in the neighborhood of $10-12M a year over 3 years. If I were KW, I probably wouldn't match that. How high I would go would depend on what other options are available. The relatively thin FA market makes replacing him that much harder and will tend to drive his price up higher. Questions I'd have to consider:

How close is Rogo to being ready?
Are there any other 1B that might be available in trade or FA, and for how much?
Where else could I spend the savings if I replaced him with someone cheaper, and have I gotten a net gain?

Mr. White Sox
09-07-2005, 01:49 PM
Where do we upgrade? At third? Who is available? No one on the FA market. Shortstop?

Rafael Furcal. If PK goes, Furcal needs to be on this team. Furcal will probably make in the neighborhood of 7-9mil per year, which is far less than what PK will make (11-15)

maurice
09-07-2005, 02:41 PM
10% is a completely arbitrary figure

Yeah, obviously -- but until somebody does a scientific study of the issue, I'll stick to my guns. :cool:

> 10% to 1 position player means < 90% for the other 24 guys (+ players on the DL). Maintaining high-quality starting pitching for the length of Konerko's deal will eat up a huge % of the remainder and won't leave much for the remaining 20 or so players.

That would put the total payroll in the mid-80's. Paying one player even $10M is not that large of a chunk.

Assuming just for the sake of argument that Konerko signs for around $12 mil. / year (approx. Sexson money) and that payroll grows to $85 mil., then his contract still would be > 14%. (Even the low low price of $10 mil. is about 12%.) Now subtract your other multi-million dollar players (especially your core pitchers) and wackiness ensues.

I'm not necessarily opposed to a far-below-market contract that would put Konerko closer to 10%, but I think it's unrealistic to discuss. JMHO.

Ol' No. 2
09-07-2005, 02:47 PM
Yeah, obviously -- but until somebody does a scientific study of the issue, I'll stick to my guns. :cool:

> 10% to 1 position player means < 90% for the other 24 guys (+ players on the DL). Maintaining high-quality starting pitching for the length of Konerko's deal will eat up a huge % of the remainder and won't leave much for the remaining 20 or so players.



Assuming just for the sake of argument that Konerko signs for around $12 mil. / year (approx. Sexson money) and that payroll grows to $85 mil., then his contract still would be > 14%. (Even the low low price of $10 mil. is about 12%.) Now subtract your other multi-million dollar players (especially your core pitchers) and wackiness ensues.

I'm not necessarily opposed to a far-below-market contract that would put Konerko closer to 10%, but I think it's unrealistic to discuss. JMHO.Even if we accept the 10% figure, there's nothing magic that happens the moment you go over 10%. 11% isn't suddenly fatal. Last year Ordonez' $14M took up 20% of the total payroll. That's a BIG difference. But 10% vs. 12%? Meh.

maurice
09-07-2005, 02:50 PM
11% isn't suddenly fatal.

How fortunate that nobody ever made such a simplistic claim.

Any response to the actual contents of my post? Based on your previous posts, it appears that we nearly are in agreement.

mjmcend
09-07-2005, 02:51 PM
Rafael Furcal. If PK goes, Furcal needs to be on this team. Furcal will probably make in the neighborhood of 7-9mil per year, which is far less than what PK will make (11-15)

Everything I have read on Furcal is that he is going to get a 4 year 40/mil contract. And his greatest asset to a team is his ability to be a top leadoff hitter, which correct me if I am wrong, we already have. I am positive he goes to a team which needs a shortstop and a leadoff hitter aka the Cubs.

JeffIsTHEMAN
09-07-2005, 02:57 PM
y the **** wouldnt he get a sexson deal when hes the better player
the sox need to show him the money cuz any other option is gonn hurt the team there r no better alternatives

Ol' No. 2
09-07-2005, 03:36 PM
How fortunate that nobody ever made such a simplistic claim.

Any response to the actual contents of my post? Based on your previous posts, it appears that we nearly are in agreement.We're actually fairly close. Given the paucity of good alternatives, I think I would entertain the idea of re-signing him for a reasonable sum (not more than about $10M). But I could be talked out of it if a better option was presented. Alternatives I'm not too crazy about:

1. Move Dye to 1B. Aside from the uncertainty in how well he could play a new position, he's not THAT good of a hitter to justify a roster spot if you don't get the OF defense with it.

2. Count on Rogowski. Too iffy without a reasonable plan B.

Jjav829
09-07-2005, 04:30 PM
Rafael Furcal. If PK goes, Furcal needs to be on this team. Furcal will probably make in the neighborhood of 7-9mil per year, which is far less than what PK will make (11-15)

:thud:

Wait, if Konerko goes, Furcal is going to replace him? :thud: again.

Furcal is a nice player. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of going after Furcal in the offseason in the right situation. But if you're suggesting that Furcal is going to replace Konerko, you're way off. Furcal plays a nice shortstop and for someone his size, he has decent power. Still, he's a 15 HR max player. He doesn't get on base at an incredibly high rate. He's not the answer to replacing Konerko. Assuming we did this, and moved Dye to 1B with Anderson in the OF, our lineup next year would be...

Pods
Iguchi
Dye
Whoever our DH is
Rowand
Pierzynski
Anderson
Furcal
Uribe

That's not the greatest lineup. It lacks a lot of power. If Konerko goes, and with Frank possibly going as well, this team is going to need two power hitters. Spending 7-9 $million on Furcal wouldn't be a wise move.

Man Soo Lee
09-07-2005, 04:35 PM
Alternatives I'm not too crazy about:

1. Move Dye to 1B. Aside from the uncertainty in how well he could play a new position, he's not THAT good of a hitter to justify a roster spot if you don't get the OF defense with it.

Dye is a better hitter than any of the other free agent 1B this year. And he's arguably as good or better than the likely trade options (Huff, Overbay, Tracy, Casey, D. Young?, N. Johnson?). Assuming Konerko leaves, the Sox have more flexibility if Dye can handle 1B.

The problem is you'd have to find an outfielder that could approximate Konerko's production or make substantial upgrades at other positions (DH, 3B, SS, LF) just to tread water offensively. Brian Giles is one of the few significant free agent bats and I doubt he's coming here.

Who becomes trade bait to acquire a big hitter? Rowand? Anderson alone won't bring you a proven middle of the lineup hitter, unless it's a major salary dump for the other team.

With the weak free agent class, overpaying Konerko might be less expensive in the long run than trading prospects to fill multiple holes in the lineup.

Frater Perdurabo
09-07-2005, 04:46 PM
A few flaws in that argument: (.... edited for brevity)

Once again, it's not my argument to make. It doesn't matter if it's flawed or not. Based on the evidence avaialble to date and the Sox history of dealing with free agents-to-be, I argue that KW and the Sox already have made up their mind not to offer Konerko a contract similar to what he will command on the open market this winter.

If the Sox wanted to lock him up, they would have offered him a new contract - or an extension of the current one - months ago. After all, Konerko was quoted as saying he's open to negotiating a new deal during the season, but the Sox told him they preferred to "wait until the end of the year."

KW is not patently stupid enough to alienate his cleanup hitter by saying publicly "We don't plan to re-sign him or offer him what he'll command on the open market." Similarly, KW is smart enough to know that if he wanted to keep Konerko, the time to do it was long before PK becomes a free agent!

One can argue over 10% this and 11% that and ifs and buts and candy and nuts, but it doesn't change one iota what KW already has "telegraphed" with his moves/non-moves to date! As PHG's quote reads: "It's Ozzie's team now, for better or worse." So-called "Ozzie ball" is putting money into starting pitching and finding "grinders" who can run, flash the leather and sacrifice themselves to manufacture runs. Konerko at $10 million+ per year doesn't fit that model, and all the available evidence points to KW recognizing that and acting in accordance with that.

Like I said before, Paulie's biggest fans better be prepared to be heartbroken this winter.

Hangar18
09-07-2005, 05:15 PM
Spending 7-9 $million on Furcal wouldn't be a wise move.


:reinsy
" I have to agree with Jjav here. Thats way too much money to be spending on just one player. Didnt we learn anything this season? Why dont we just wait-and-see what happens, if were in contention at the break, all the money were saving here, would give Kenny the FLEXIBILITY to acquire a Real and Talented first baseman at the deadline ......."

Ol' No. 2
09-07-2005, 05:22 PM
Once again, it's not my argument to make. It doesn't matter if it's flawed or not. Based on the evidence avaialble to date and the Sox history of dealing with free agents-to-be, I argue that KW and the Sox already have made up their mind not to offer Konerko a contract similar to what he will command on the open market this winter. etc...etc.I'd say the chances are better than 50-50 that you're right and that they won't re-sign him. But it's far from a slam dunk, and I don't necessarily agree that they've already made up their minds. There's a very good reason to wait to offer a contract - there's still a lot of uncertainty as to what alternatives may be available. I'm fairly sure they'll offer arbitration, since if he accepts he's not going to break the bank and they'd be committed to only one year. That buys them time to let some of the uncertainties settle out. A few of the uncertainties:

1. Who else are they going to get to play 1B, either via trade or FA?
2. Is there anything worthwhile to spend the savings on if they find someone for less?
3. If his replacement isn't as productive, can they upgrade somewhere else to replace that productivity?

HITMEN OF 77
09-07-2005, 05:31 PM
1. Who else are they going to get to play 1B, either via trade or FA?
2. Is there anything worthwhile to spend the savings on if they find someone for less?
3. If his replacement isn't as productive, can they upgrade somewhere else to replace that productivity?

Answers....
1. No one
2. No
3. ?

maurice
09-07-2005, 06:00 PM
Keep in mind that KW probably plans to move several valuable players in the next couple of years, no matter what else happens. IMO, he will make room for McCarthy and Anderson in 2006 by trading / letting go of a starting pitcher and a starting OF, DH, or 1B. Within the following year, he'll probably need to make room for at least one other prospect from the pool of Young, Sweeney, Rogowski, Fields, and Owens -- or trade one or more of those prospects. Finally, he reportedly has expressed a willingness to trade Marte.

So, the chips are there, and they will be traded. The remaining questions are: when and for what? IMO, the likely answers are: during this coming offseason and for more than one position player, especially if significant salary room is created by some combination of a payroll increase, trades, and failure to resign Konerko, Thomas, Everett, Perez, and/or Davis. The pitching staff is pretty much set.

It certainly will be an interesting offseason.

Daver
09-07-2005, 06:09 PM
especially if significant salary room is created by some combination of a payroll increase, trades, and failure to resign Konerko, Thomas, Everett, Perez, and/or Davis. The pitching staff is pretty much set.

It certainly will be an interesting offseason.

If the Sox manage to win it all, everyone will be back next season. Jerry Reinsdorf won't set himself up for the storm of public critiscm if they aren't.

AZChiSoxFan
09-07-2005, 06:13 PM
Once again, it's not my argument to make. It doesn't matter if it's flawed or not. Based on the evidence avaialble to date and the Sox history of dealing with free agents-to-be, I argue that KW and the Sox already have made up their mind not to offer Konerko a contract similar to what he will command on the open market this winter.

If the Sox wanted to lock him up, they would have offered him a new contract - or an extension of the current one - months ago. After all, Konerko was quoted as saying he's open to negotiating a new deal during the season, but the Sox told him they preferred to "wait until the end of the year."

KW is not patently stupid enough to alienate his cleanup hitter by saying publicly "We don't plan to re-sign him or offer him what he'll command on the open market." Similarly, KW is smart enough to know that if he wanted to keep Konerko, the time to do it was long before PK becomes a free agent!

One can argue over 10% this and 11% that and ifs and buts and candy and nuts, but it doesn't change one iota what KW already has "telegraphed" with his moves/non-moves to date! As PHG's quote reads: "It's Ozzie's team now, for better or worse." So-called "Ozzie ball" is putting money into starting pitching and finding "grinders" who can run, flash the leather and sacrifice themselves to manufacture runs. Konerko at $10 million+ per year doesn't fit that model, and all the available evidence points to KW recognizing that and acting in accordance with that.

Like I said before, Paulie's biggest fans better be prepared to be heartbroken this winter.

Very nice post Frater. I'm a fan of PK (one of the few on WSI) and most of the threads involving him tend to go downhill fairly quickly. However, props to you for some well thought out, non-emotional points.

Jerome
09-07-2005, 06:28 PM
:thud:

Wait, if Konerko goes, Furcal is going to replace him? :thud: again.

Furcal is a nice player. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of going after Furcal in the offseason in the right situation. But if you're suggesting that Furcal is going to replace Konerko, you're way off. Furcal plays a nice shortstop and for someone his size, he has decent power. Still, he's a 15 HR max player. He doesn't get on base at an incredibly high rate. He's not the answer to replacing Konerko. Assuming we did this, and moved Dye to 1B with Anderson in the OF, our lineup next year would be...

Pods
Iguchi
Dye
Whoever our DH is
Rowand
Pierzynski
Anderson
Furcal
Uribe

That's not the greatest lineup. It lacks a lot of power. If Konerko goes, and with Frank possibly going as well, this team is going to need two power hitters. Spending 7-9 $million on Furcal wouldn't be a wise move.

Agreed. Furcal is a luxury that only the richest teams like the Cubs who make knee jerk moves can afford. Every time some Cub fan calls up the Score or 1000 demanding that they fire Dusty, sign Damon, sign Furcal, etc., Furcal's price gets a little bit higher. The Sox however, need some more production for that money. I think KW is smart enough not to blow all the money on one overpriced FA like Furcal, but rather spread it around like he did last offseason. Furcal is NOT the answer. You'll see the Braves next year plug someone cheaper in at SS and get the job done I'm sure. I mean, he's obviously a tremendous player, but not for the Sox at that price.

maurice
09-07-2005, 06:30 PM
If the Sox manage to win it all, everyone will be back next season. Jerry Reinsdorf won't set himself up for the storm of public critiscm if they aren't.

:reinsy
"I'm the master of PR!"

If the Sox manage to win it all, we won't even notice what KW does for the next several months. We'll be too busy celebrating and doing this:
:gulp::bandance: :gulp: :bandance: :gulp:

faneidde
09-08-2005, 09:44 AM
Konerko is a fan favorite and team captain. It would really be a huge shame to see him sign with another team. I hope he stays, but I fear he could be gone. I guess since he's homered in four games in a row the Paulie bashers have taken the week off, which is a welcome sight for a change.