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voodoochile
08-30-2005, 12:52 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)

SoxinAZ
08-30-2005, 12:59 PM
:weewillie Put me in coach-I'll get ya a "W"!

Iwritecode
08-30-2005, 12:59 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)

I've checked out a few Cleveland message boards and while most are grounded in reality and are just focusing on winning the WC, there are always a couple that are keeping a watch on the Sox games and figuring out what it would take for them to win the ALC. :o:

I just think back to how I felt the past couple of years when I kept hoping that the Sox would find a way to overtake the Twins during the last month and a half of the season and laugh.

SOXPHILE
08-30-2005, 01:02 PM
(Chicago Mediots): "But...but....the 1969 Cubs !...the 1964 Phillies !...the 1995 Angels....Frank Thomas is a cancer !....Ozzier Guillen swears !...."

voodoochile
08-30-2005, 01:06 PM
What's that website that shows true magic number based on remaining schedule of the teams with a playoff shot?

I know someone has it book marked. I bet the Sox actual number is a lot lowe than it seems because of the number of times our rivals play each other the remainder of the season...

FielderJones
08-30-2005, 01:09 PM
What's that website that shows true magic number based on remaining schedule of the teams with a playoff shot?

I know someone has it book marked. I bet the Sox actual number is a lot lowe than it seems because of the number of times our rivals play each other the remainder of the season...

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/

Sad
08-30-2005, 01:09 PM
we'll be fine... unless Texas sweeps today's doubleheader & Cleveland wins...:duck:

:notoons

HITMEN OF 77
08-30-2005, 01:16 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)

Nice work. That was helpful!! :thumbsup:

MIgrenade
08-30-2005, 01:16 PM
According to the riot number, the Sox have to win 104 games this season to be guaranteed a playoff spot if I read that right and have any clue as to how that works. There goes the idea of winning 96, obviously that won't be enough.

Iwritecode
08-30-2005, 01:18 PM
According to the riot number, the Sox have to win 104 games this season to be guaranteed a playoff spot if I read that right and have any clue as to how that works. There goes the idea of winning 96, obviously that won't be enough.

I think you look at it more like a magic number. I'm sure a Cleveland loss would reduce the number as well...

Baby Fisk
08-30-2005, 01:23 PM
So, do you think the Sox will win 4 straight championships or only 3? :cool:

Iwritecode
08-30-2005, 01:26 PM
So, do you think the Sox will win 4 straight championships or only 3? :cool:

"Win guarantee a minimum 8-peat!"
-SNL Superfans

voodoochile
08-30-2005, 01:27 PM
According to the riot number, the Sox have to win 104 games this season to be guaranteed a playoff spot if I read that right and have any clue as to how that works. There goes the idea of winning 96, obviously that won't be enough.

If the Sox win 104 games, they are guaranteed a playoff spot, but IWC is correct, the number in question is like a magic number. Every opponent loss reduces that number. The Riot number takes into account other factors like the fact that Oakland plays LA 7 times and Boston plays NY 6 times, thus reducing those teams' collective ability to catch the Sox.

They explain it all if you read the home page...

mccombe_35
08-30-2005, 01:33 PM
If the Sox were playing .500 ball I wouldn't be so worried. So far they are playing .440 ball in August & just .333 ball over their past 15 games.

.440 ball the rest of the way means 93 or 94 wins, & .333 ball translates into just 91 wins..... I would hate to see what the other teams would have to do if the Sox continue to play this bad.....

But, thanks for the info. It actually does make me feel a little better. :smile:

Randar68
08-30-2005, 01:40 PM
Voodoo,

My concern isn't IF we'll make the playoffs, but that it'll be an ugly repeat of 2000 all over again.

We need a few guys to really turn it up down the stretch. Our execution and manufacturing of runs has completely dissipated and now we're stuck watching the pitchers feel like they have to pitch a shut-out every time they take the mound!

UofCSoxFan
08-30-2005, 01:43 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)

This is what I've been harpening on the last day over in yesterday's post game thread. Thank you for putting it more eloquently with specific numbers...and hopefully people will actually listen to you.

FielderJones
08-30-2005, 01:43 PM
My concern isn't IF we'll make the playoffs, but that it'll be an ugly repeat of 200 all over again.


Was that the ALDS against the Centurions? :tongue:

voodoochile
08-30-2005, 01:44 PM
Voodoo,

My concern isn't IF we'll make the playoffs, but that it'll be an ugly repeat of 200 all over again.

We need a few guys to really turn it up down the stretch. Our execution and manufacturing of runs has completely dissipated and now we're stuck watching the pitchers feel like they have to pitch a shut-out every time they take the mound!

Right, but the pitching (though it actually came through okay in the playoffs in 2000) is much much better this year. The bullpen is so far better as to be ridiculous and the starters all can throw a 1-0 shutout against hungry teams in big games.

The question mark is the offense, but most of our recent struggles offensively have coincided with Pods being on the DL. If he is healthy come playoff time, the Sox are a force to be reckoned with...

TheOldRoman
08-30-2005, 01:45 PM
:threadrules:
But it bears the question... how can two teams split 7 games?:cool:

TheOldRoman
08-30-2005, 01:47 PM
Was that the ALDS against the Centurions? :tongue:
:rolling::rolling::rolling:
It took me about 2 seconds to get that one.

Randar68
08-30-2005, 01:48 PM
Right, but the pitching (though it actually came through okay in the playoffs in 2000) is much much better this year. The bullpen is so far better as to be ridiculous and the starters all can throw a 1-0 shutout against hungry teams in big games.

The question mark is the offense, but most of our recent struggles offensively have coincided with Pods being on the DL. If he is healthy come playoff time, the Sox are a force to be reckoned with...

I'm not convinced it's Pods being out of the lineup as much as Frank. Sure, the offense was ok early in the year when we had some other guys hot, but since Frank went down, Paul has been in a funk and is even more 1-dimensional than before.

I guess Ozzie using Timo as a leadoff man should be an indicator of how bad it is. Ozuna would do worse? Yikes. Don't know what to think about this carp... Just have that uneasy feeling of backing in...

voodoochile
08-30-2005, 01:52 PM
I'm not convinced it's Pods being out of the lineup as much as Frank. Sure, the offense was ok early in the year when we had some other guys hot, but since Frank went down, Paul has been in a funk and is even more 1-dimensional than before.

I guess Ozzie using Timo as a leadoff man should be an indicator of how bad it is. Ozuna would do worse? Yikes. Don't know what to think about this carp... Just have that uneasy feeling of backing in...

Well, sure... Losing Frank was a huge blow. How the team will perform offensively in the playoffs is anyone's guess, but at least they have a more multidimensional offense than in 2000. The opportunity to manufacture runs is at an all time high. If the offense tanks, the team is screwed, but you can say that about any team come playoff time.

This is why we play the games, for the opportunity to go for it all. No guarantees, but there never are in sports...

MIgrenade
08-30-2005, 01:54 PM
If the Sox win 104 games, they are guaranteed a playoff spot, but IWC is correct, the number in question is like a magic number. Every opponent loss reduces that number. The Riot number takes into account other factors like the fact that Oakland plays LA 7 times and Boston plays NY 6 times, thus reducing those teams' collective ability to catch the Sox.

They explain it all if you read the home page...

Actually I did read it and I do understand it enough to realize that the Sox have a long way to go to making this official. This team since the All-Star break has not been very good and I would doubt that they will win 100 games. I also know that the Indians have been playing very well and those games against them may not be easy as they have been earlier this year.
I think the Sox will win the division, but don't assume that the Sox will play .500 baseball. The Indians have come one like gangbusters and are capable of playing extremely well.
I remember when the second half started that everyone was saying that if the Sox go .500 they would win 105 games. Well now that number is down to 96 so what does that tell you?

Goose
08-30-2005, 01:55 PM
If the Sox were playing .500 ball I wouldn't be so worried. So far they are playing .440 ball in August & just .333 ball over their past 15 games.

.440 ball the rest of the way means 93 or 94 wins, & .333 ball translates into just 91 wins..... I would hate to see what the other teams would have to do if the Sox continue to play this bad.....

But, thanks for the info. It actually does make me feel a little better. :smile:

More analysis needs to be done with respect to teams outside of the ALC, but I can tell you the following:



If the Sox go 0.324 (11-23), in order for the Indians to win the division, they would have to go 0.533 (16 and 14). If the Sox go 0.441 (15-19) the Tribe needs to play at a 0.667 pace (20-10) for them to knock off the Sox. The Sox have been playing 0.524 since the ASB, and if they continue at that pace (0.529 with the remaining games), then the Indians would have to play 0.767, or 23-7 the rest of the way to win the ALC. The Indians have played 0.561 ball all year and as hot as they have been (0.614 since the ASB), that would be an unbelievable feat to accomplish.

Ol' No. 2
08-30-2005, 01:56 PM
Well, sure... Losing Frank was a huge blow. How the team will perform offensively in the playoffs is anyone's guess, but at least they have a more multidimensional offense than in 2000. The opportunity to manufacture runs is at an all time high. If the offense tanks, the team is screwed, but you can say that about any team come playoff time.

This is why we play the games, for the opportunity to go for it all. No guarantees, but there never are in sports...No!!! Other teams' offenses are tank-proof.

BTW, who had the most potent offense in the NL last year? And how did they do in the WS?

UofCSoxFan
08-30-2005, 02:05 PM
Was that the ALDS against the Centurions? :tongue:

Well seeing how some posters here are ready to throw Kenny Williams, Timo Perez, Willie Harris, Joe Crede, etc... to the lions...maybe referencing the year 200 is apt.

You know it only seems like 1805 years since our last playoff appearance.

Iwritecode
08-30-2005, 02:07 PM
No!!! Other teams' offenses are tank-proof.

BTW, who had the most potent offense in the NL last year? And how did they do in the WS?

I believe they lost to a team with an even more potent offense.



I may be wrong because I didn't bother to look it up though. The Yankees might have had a better offense...

Ol' No. 2
08-30-2005, 02:22 PM
I believe they lost to a team with an even more potent offense.



I may be wrong because I didn't bother to look it up though. The Yankees might have had a better offense...They lost because they hit a measly .190. The Sox offense would have been more than enough to beat them. Good pitching beats good hitting.

DumpJerry
08-30-2005, 02:37 PM
Voodoo: You da man!

All week, I've been telling the troops "do the math. It's a lock for us and the Cards to make the post-season!" The fearful Sox fans give me a pat on the head and say "that's nice." I then ask them: would you rather not be the Sox, Cards or (possibly) the Braves? All other teams in MLB are not assured of a spot. The A's with their hot play are not assured. Same for the Tribe and Yankees. Wouldn't you rather be a team that is almost assured a post season spot? The response then shifts to "you want to get to the post season playing strong, not like this." I tell them the guys are a little tired and with the Sept. call ups coming, they will get rested.

NOW....LET'S GET OUT THERE AND WIN!!!!!!!:D:

Tekijawa
08-30-2005, 02:41 PM
Did anyone look at the September/October Schedule?

8- Detroit
6- Cleveland
6- KC
7- Twins
3- Los Angeles of Anaheim


If we can't go .500 with this schedule then I will wholeheartedly agree that we don't deserve to go to the playoffs to begin with.

Baby Fisk
08-30-2005, 02:46 PM
Did anyone look at the September/October Schedule?

8- Detroit
6- Cleveland
6- KC
7- Twins
3- Los Angeles of Anaheim


If we can't go .500 with this schedule then I will wholeheartedly agree that we don't deserve to go to the playoffs to begin with.
Good grief the Sox should go .700 with this schedule! Then of course, sweep every series in the post-season. :cool:

Mohoney
08-30-2005, 02:50 PM
If the Sox were playing .500 ball I wouldn't be so worried. So far they are playing .440 ball in August & just .333 ball over their past 15 games.

OK, let's play Devil's Advocate and assume that they play .440 ball the rest of the way. I'm not going to even dignify playing at a .333 clip from here on out with any calculations, since it's simply not going to happen.

34 games*a .440 win%=14.96 wins. Let's call it 15.

That puts us at 94 wins. For Cleveland to win the division outright, they would need to go 21-9 or better the rest of the way, and they would force a playoff if they go 20-10.

We have 6 remaining games with the Indians. Even assuming the worst case scenario, we have to be a mortal lock to win 2 of these 6 games against a team that we are 10-3 against on the season.

That STILL leaves a required record of 17-7 or better to win outright and 16-8 to force a playoff.

Basically, this is what we have. The Indians MUST repeat their stellar August in September, they NEED us to repeat our relatively weak August in September, AND they need AT LEAST 4 or 5 wins in the 6 remaining games that they have against us JUST TO HAVE A CHANCE to win this division.

Sure sucks to be us, doesn't it?

DMarte708
08-30-2005, 02:51 PM
Did anyone look at the September/October Schedule?

8- Detroit
6- Cleveland
6- KC
7- Twins
3- Los Angeles of Anaheim


If we can't go .500 with this schedule then I will wholeheartedly agree that we don't deserve to go to the playoffs to begin with.

You're right--it we can't post atleast a .500 record this team deserves its embarrassing fate.

However, even with this schedule, you can't exactly guarantee a .500 record. I recall after the all-star break the discussions about our record would go as follows, "If we go .500 the remainder of the season we'll win 105 games." Then it became 100 games. Then 98. Now 96.

If our team finishes the seaon with 93 wins, thus backing into October with a 14-20 record, Cleveland would only need to play at a 20-10 (.666) clip. Not impossible. I'd like to believe it's unreasonable to expect this team to finish the season with a .412 winning percentage, but this offense just gives me no hope.

EDIT: Damn, Mohoney beat me to the punch.:redneck

captain54
08-30-2005, 02:56 PM
If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way

That's a pretty big "if" in my book...

If they don't play .500, then throw all your stats out the window....

Back in June or July, if you said they would play below .500 in August you would think that was crazy, but so far they have (played below .500).....Of course, they could play above .500 in September, and finish out with a double digit lead.......

There are really not any dominant teams in the AL this year..... that's my biggest source of optimism that the Sox will make the playoffs..the big question mark is whether or not Cleveland can keep up this pace thru September...if they do, then we are in for a wild ride, and we are talking about competing against Yankees, Angels, Twins, A's for the wild card....

Who would have ever thought after the 4 game sweep of Cleveland after the break that they would be chasing the Sox with a single digit deficit entering September???

just goes to show you anything can happen..

34 Inch Stick
08-30-2005, 04:06 PM
Pull up people's analysis of the schedule at the beginning of the season. This August swoon was expected.

When it snows in January I do not think it is the beginning of an ice age. I curse the cold and smile knowing the warm months are coming. September is analogous to our our warm months.

Flight #24
08-30-2005, 04:07 PM
Pull up people's analysis of the schedule at the beginning of the season. This August swoon was expected.

When it snows in January I do not think it is the beginning of an ice age. I curse the cold and smile knowing the warm months are coming. September is analogous to our our warm months.
:thumbsup:

Hangar18
08-30-2005, 04:44 PM
Voodoo,

My concern isn't IF we'll make the playoffs, but that it'll be an ugly repeat of 2000 all over again.

We need a few guys to really turn it up down the stretch. Our execution and manufacturing of runs has completely dissipated and now we're stuck watching the pitchers feel like they have to pitch a shut-out every time they take the mound!

Easy there Dark Cloud .......

Mammoo
08-30-2005, 05:05 PM
...and if they don't start playing better, they don't stand a chance in the playoffs...:?:

Letmehearya
08-30-2005, 08:19 PM
Cleveland plays 9 out of the next 12 against Minnesota and Oakland. [and 3 in Detroit] After that, they come to the Cell. Let's win the next 2, have a good solid week and be ready to drive a stake in the Tribe's division thoughts.

johnny bench
08-30-2005, 08:47 PM
Forget trying to project win percentages.

We have a 6.5 game lead against Cleveland.

We have 6 games remaining to be played against Cleveland.

If they sweep us, then they have a shot.

Anything less and they don't have enough season left to catch us.

We just have to continue to own Cleveland. So far we are 10 - 3 this season.

buehrle4cy05
08-30-2005, 09:01 PM
I still think the last 2 weeks of the season may determine how we play in October...it's usually the team that's hot coming into the playoffs, and if we're playing great baseball, we have a chance. If not, the playoffs are a crapshoot, and if the bounces fall our way, there's still a chance.

chisoxmike
08-30-2005, 10:56 PM
My hand is and will be in the air.

:gulp:

CarlosMay'sThumb
08-30-2005, 11:10 PM
Forget trying to project win percentages.

We have a 6.5 game lead against Cleveland.

We have 6 games remaining to be played against Cleveland.

If they sweep us, then they have a shot.

Anything less and they don't have enough season left to catch us.

We just have to continue to own Cleveland. So far we are 10 - 3 this season.
Thank You!

This whole idea of writing out possible winning percentages is nuts. It would only be worthwhile if the Sox didn't have any remaining games against the Indians.

Think of it this way. With a 7 game lead currently and 6 remaining games against the Indians, an Indians sweep would mean that they would only have to play 1 game better than the Sox over the rest of their remaining schedule to force a tie. Obviously a sweep is unlikely, but even if they won 5 of 6 it would mean that the Indians would only have to play 3 games better than the Sox over their remaining schedule.

With the way the Sox have played over the last month, losing 8 games of their lead, I don't see how anybody can be totally confident about the Sox making the playoffs - let alone how they'll do once they are there.

Lip Man 1
08-30-2005, 11:11 PM
Just for the record it's back up to seven games.

Lip

JB98
08-30-2005, 11:15 PM
Thank You!

This whole idea of writing out possible winning percentages is nuts. It would only be worthwhile if the Sox didn't have any remaining games against the Indians.

Think of it this way. With a 7 game lead currently and 6 remaining games against the Indians, an Indians sweep would mean that they would only have to play 1 game better than the Sox over the rest of their remaining schedule to force a tie. Obviously a sweep is unlikely, but even if they won 5 of 6 it would mean that the Indians would only have to play 3 games better than the Sox over their remaining schedule.

With the way the Sox have played over the last month, losing 8 games of their lead, I don't see how anybody can be totally confident about the Sox making the playoffs - let alone how they'll do once they are there.

You know what? This is all just mental masturbation. The point is, the Sox are in control of their destiny. We've struggled this month. No question about that. However, if our guys take care of business, there isn't a damn thing Cleveland or anybody else can do about it.

Lip Man 1
08-30-2005, 11:22 PM
Actually while the Sox have struggled, the record considering who they played and where isn't that bad...12-15.

The problem is that the Indians are like 19-7 for the month.

If (there's that word again...) Cleveland was 'only' 15-11 we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Lip

StockdaleForVeep
08-30-2005, 11:25 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)

Voodoo, the worry for people is the sox played 500 ball the entire second half of 2000 and we know where their in season record got them

JB98
08-30-2005, 11:39 PM
Voodoo, the worry for people is the sox played 500 ball the entire second half of 2000 and we know where their in season record got them

Different set of circumstances, though. Knock on wood, our pitchers are healthy this year.

StockdaleForVeep
08-31-2005, 01:20 AM
Different set of circumstances, though. Knock on wood, our pitchers are healthy this year.

I know, but just sayin, people keep drawin the comparison

http://slam.canoe.ca/WrestlingImagesD/duggan_hacksaw.jpg
"Knock this wood brotha, HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"

voodoochile
08-31-2005, 01:39 AM
I know, but just sayin, people keep drawin the comparison

http://slam.canoe.ca/WrestlingImagesD/duggan_hacksaw.jpg
"Knock this wood brotha, HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"

:iron
"The past is for losers and cowards..."

voodoochile
08-31-2005, 01:46 AM
Oh and one other question since the two losses by Garland and BurlyMon seemed to bring out the beast in the dark clouds...

How many of those dark clouds would be perfectly willing to take their chances with a 5.5 RPG average and those two pitchers on the mound?

You see it's not always as cut and dried as it seems and the lead is still 7 games...:D:

SOXintheBURGH
08-31-2005, 01:48 AM
Oh and one other question since the two losses by Garland and BurlyMon seemed to bring out the beast in the dark clouds...

How many of those dark clouds would be perfectly willing to take their chances with a 5.5 RPG average and those two pitchers on the mound?

You see it's not always as cut and dried as it seems and the lead is still 7 games...:D:

Where are the bats, voodoo, we can't hit!!?!?!

StillMissOzzie
08-31-2005, 02:29 AM
voodoo, my only problem with your analysis is that you sorta double-count those 6 games vs. the Indian. Early on, you say "...if the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way out..." but then you consider those 6 games vs. the Tribe seperately. Instead, let's ponder these numbers, removing the 6 head-to-head games with the Indians:

Sox (80-50) have 32 games left (including a make-up w/ Boston), less 6 with the Tribe, or 26 non-Tribe games. If the Sox go .500 in these games (and looking at the schedule, they should...), that puts the Sox at 93 wins, again w/o those Tribe games.

Cleveland (74-58) have 30 games left (including a make-up with today's rainout, Detroit), less 6 with the Sox, or 24 non-Sox games.

1) If the Tribe goes 14-10 (a .583 pace) in those non-Sox games, they are 88-68. That means that the Sox would need only 1 game of the head-to-head matches to clinch the AL Central
2) If the Tribe goes 16-8 (a .667 pace) in those non-Sox games, they are 90-66. This makes the Sox need 4 of the 6 head-to-head games to eliminate the chance of a tie.

I've looked at the Sox schedule, and there's no reason that the Sox can't do at least .500 against the likes of Detroit, KC, and the downtrodden Twinks. But, I am still worried about the Tribe. Playing 14-10 for their non-Sox games does not sound like a stretch, and I would feel a whole lot better if the Sox didn't need any of the victories vs.the Tribe to lock up the division.

That said, I agree with others here concerned with a repeat of 2000. Yes, the pitching is much better, but I sure wish the bats would come around...

SMO
:gulp:

SouthSide_HitMen
08-31-2005, 04:27 AM
The White Sox will clinch between September 17 (on road in Minnesota Sept 17 & 18) through the Cleveland home series (Sept 19 - 21). Get your tickets for the Cleveland series and enjoy history at the Cell. You heard it here first.

voodoochile
08-31-2005, 07:53 AM
voodoo, my only problem with your analysis is that you sorta double-count those 6 games vs. the Indian. Early on, you say "...if the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way out..." but then you consider those 6 games vs. the Tribe seperately. Instead, let's ponder these numbers, removing the 6 head-to-head games with the Indians:

Sox (80-50) have 32 games left (including a make-up w/ Boston), less 6 with the Tribe, or 26 non-Tribe games. If the Sox go .500 in these games (and looking at the schedule, they should...), that puts the Sox at 93 wins, again w/o those Tribe games.

Cleveland (74-58) have 30 games left (including a make-up with today's rainout, Detroit), less 6 with the Sox, or 24 non-Sox games.

1) If the Tribe goes 14-10 (a .583 pace) in those non-Sox games, they are 88-68. That means that the Sox would need only 1 game of the head-to-head matches to clinch the AL Central
2) If the Tribe goes 16-8 (a .667 pace) in those non-Sox games, they are 90-66. This makes the Sox need 4 of the 6 head-to-head games to eliminate the chance of a tie.

I've looked at the Sox schedule, and there's no reason that the Sox can't do at least .500 against the likes of Detroit, KC, and the downtrodden Twinks. But, I am still worried about the Tribe. Playing 14-10 for their non-Sox games does not sound like a stretch, and I would feel a whole lot better if the Sox didn't need any of the victories vs.the Tribe to lock up the division.

That said, I agree with others here concerned with a repeat of 2000. Yes, the pitching is much better, but I sure wish the bats would come around...

SMO
:gulp:

Bad math...

If the Sox have 93 wins and the Tribe has 90 wins without those 6 games then 2 wins gurantees the Sox first (they would have 95 and the best the Tribe could do is 94).

MsSoxVixen22
08-31-2005, 09:18 AM
:weewillie Put me in coach-I'll get ya a "W"!



:roflmao: Too funny!

Letmehearya
08-31-2005, 10:06 AM
The White Sox will clinch between September 17 (on road in Minnesota Sept 17 & 18) through the Cleveland home series (Sept 19 - 21). Get your tickets for the Cleveland series and enjoy history at the Cell. You heard it here first.

Even with all the dark clouds - and I plead guilty - I pegged September 21st v. the Tribe as the game we clinch. My daughter asked me last night after game one if September 21st will still be the date. I said absolutely. The Twinkies are hanging around and the A's are in a dogfight. Let the 3 of them beat each other up. That means if we take care of business against the likes of KC and Detroit, we should be fine.

Ol' No. 2
08-31-2005, 10:39 AM
I believe that despite all the arguing, most people will agree on a few basic items:

1. It's POSSIBLE for the Sox to completely blow it and not even make the playoffs. Teams have blown bigger leads than this.

2. POSSIBLE is not the same as LIKELY. The Sox would have to completely suck wind and the Indians would have to remain red hot for another month. Either is unlikely, but the chances of BOTH happening is double-unlikely. We'll all feel better when the champagne corks pop, but until then, I'm not going to lose sleep over it.

3. While it's possible for them to continue to play .500 ball and still win the division, I don't think anyone will feel too good about their chances in post-season if they do. Post-season success goes to the team that's hot at the time. Sure, teams have limped into the playoffs and won it all. But the same rule applied above applies here: possible, but not likely. Which brings me to the fourth point on which I think everyone will agree.

4. This team is badly in need of a spark. Maybe having Podsednik back in the lineup will do it. Maybe McCarthy's performance yesterday will do it. Maybe having Frank in the dugout will help. Maybe Griffey will show up in a Sox uniform tomorrow. The thing about sparks is that there's no predicting what or how.

Bad news: You can't manufacture a spark. It happens when it happens. Or not.:(:

Good news: The playoffs start in a month, not in a week. There's time.:smile:

StillMissOzzie
08-31-2005, 01:30 PM
Bad math...

If the Sox have 93 wins and the Tribe has 90 wins without those 6 games then 2 wins gurantees the Sox first (they would have 95 and the best the Tribe could do is 94).

My bad...:redface:

My point remains, though - I don't want the Sox to need any victories over the Tribe to clinch, and stepping up the pace above .500 before that happens will take care of business.

SMO
:gulp:

faneidde
08-31-2005, 07:13 PM
Bad news: You can't manufacture a spark. It happens when it happens. Or not.:(:

Good news: The playoffs start in a month, not in a week. There's time.:smile:
The more I see this team play of late, the more I think that having a month until the playoffs just gives the Indians more time to catch the Sox. I think the chances the Sox make the playoffs are down to about 75% now. At the start of August I would have said 99% chance.

voodoochile
08-31-2005, 07:33 PM
The more I see this team play of late, the more I think that having a month until the playoffs just gives the Indians more time to catch the Sox. I think the chances the Sox make the playoffs are down to about 75% now. At the start of August I would have said 99% chance.

Are you actually saying that the chance for both Cleveland AND 3 of the other 4 teams to get to a better record than the Sox has increased by 25% in the last 30 days?

:bong:

I don't know whether to ask for some of whatever you are smoking or suggest that you go get some...:cool:

Mr. White Sox
08-31-2005, 07:34 PM
I don't know whether to ask for some of whatever you are smoking or suggest that you go get some...:cool:

Even Sox Trolling Website BP says they have a 97% chance to make the playoffs. :thud:

SOXSINCE'70
08-31-2005, 07:53 PM
I'm not panicking,but i'd like to see some wins strung together.

GO SOX!!

voodoochile
08-31-2005, 07:57 PM
I'm not panicking,but i'd like to see some wins strung together.

GO SOX!!

That would be WAY cool... At least our schedule lightens up a bit and the team starts playing the ALC again. I love the unbalanced schedule. Ozzie will have the team sky high to play Cleveland, Minnesota, et. al. and that is where the team built their lead.

The team won't go down fighting. I guarantee it... heck, I don't think they are going down at all...:)

faneidde
08-31-2005, 11:17 PM
Are you actually saying that the chance for both Cleveland AND 3 of the other 4 teams to get to a better record than the Sox has increased by 25% in the last 30 days?

:bong:

I don't know whether to ask for some of whatever you are smoking or suggest that you go get some...:cool:
I'm not smoking anything, I wish I was. But look at what happened in the past month. Since August 1st, Cleveland gained 8 games. They are currently 7 back. New York gained 6.5 and are currently 6 back. So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs. I'm not saying it will happen, I just think it is a possibility.

spiffie
09-01-2005, 12:12 AM
Since this month made me feel like we somehow had become the 69 Cubs, 62 Phillies, 85 Georgetown Hoyas and Super Bowl III Colts all rolled into one, I needed to look at the numbers and see just how bad it has been for us.

At the All star break, the Sox were 8 up in the loss column on the second place team, and 12 up on the 3rd place team. On the morning of Sept. 1 we will be 8 up in the loss column on the second place team, and 12 up on the 3rd place team in our division.

Guess it's not as bad as I thought :D:

voodoochile
09-01-2005, 05:18 AM
I'm not smoking anything, I wish I was. But look at what happened in the past month. Since August 1st, Cleveland gained 8 games. They are currently 7 back. New York gained 6.5 and are currently 6 back. So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs. I'm not saying it will happen, I just think it is a possibility.

No, at least two other teams from the ALW or another team from the ALE would have to catch the Sox too. That was the point of my original post. I actually got it wrong too. It's not 3 teams that have to catch and pass the Sox it's 4 (with one of them being Cleveland). So it's even better than I originally said it was...

voodoochile
09-01-2005, 05:20 AM
Since this month made me feel like we somehow had become the 69 Cubs, 62 Phillies, 85 Georgetown Hoyas and Super Bowl III Colts all rolled into one, I needed to look at the numbers and see just how bad it has been for us.

At the All star break, the Sox were 8 up in the loss column on the second place team, and 12 up on the 3rd place team. On the morning of Sept. 1 we will be 8 up in the loss column on the second place team, and 12 up on the 3rd place team in our division.

Guess it's not as bad as I thought :D:

Yeah, it SOOOOO sucks to be us...:tongue:

Edit: and the current RIOT (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/%7Ebaseball/american_league.html)numbers have the Magic Number to make the playoffs at 23 (one below the number to clinch the division). That may seem odd since NY has a better record and less losses than Cleveland but these folks take a lot of factors into consideration - like the number of possible victories for each team considering who they play over the final month.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-01-2005, 06:17 AM
I'm not smoking anything, I wish I was. But look at what happened in the past month. Since August 1st, Cleveland gained 8 games. They are currently 7 back. New York gained 6.5 and are currently 6 back. So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs. I'm not saying it will happen, I just think it is a possibility.

WOW! This is your analysis of the situation, comparing games back? This "possibility" is what has you concerned?

Are you riding the short bus to Purdue everyday?

Flight #24
09-01-2005, 08:20 AM
I'm not smoking anything, I wish I was. But look at what happened in the past month. Since August 1st, Cleveland gained 8 games. They are currently 7 back. New York gained 6.5 and are currently 6 back. So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs. I'm not saying it will happen, I just think it is a possibility.

It's all the 7-game losing streak, coinciding with the Tribe win streak. Because even though thye haven't played great, in the past 2 weeks, IIRC the lead has stayed the exact same, at 7.

So basically, if the Sox continue to play the way they have the past 2 weeks (which is not all that great), they'll STILL win the division. And their competition gets easier while the Tribe's gets tougher.

Think before you troll.

wdelaney72
09-01-2005, 08:37 AM
This is all fine and dandy. Great, the Sox will likely win the division. The problem is, if they play this way going into the playoffs, it will be a very short October. I'm trying to keep me head up, but they're making it very difficult for me to be excited about the playoffs. They're just not playing well.

Paulwny
09-01-2005, 08:50 AM
I'm not smoking anything, I wish I was. But look at what happened in the past month. Since August 1st, Cleveland gained 8 games. They are currently 7 back. New York gained 6.5 and are currently 6 back. So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs. I'm not saying it will happen, I just think it is a possibility.

Of course anything is possible, but not probable.
Every game the Tribe plays is now a must win situation, trying to catch the sox and the wild card. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on a fairly young team. Every mistake and every bad pitch becomes magnified. I don't think they'll be able to handle this pressure.
Next year may be a different story.

SOX ADDICT '73
09-01-2005, 08:50 AM
So, if the past month repeats itself this month, the Sox are watching the playoffs.
If* the month of September mirrors August in terms of the amount of ground Cleveland makes up (which is to say that the Sox continue to play as badly as they have, and the Indians stay just as hot), we will enter October one game back, with two to play against them.

Anybody recall a four-game sweep there after the All-Star break?

*Because that's one big "if"!

harwar
09-01-2005, 08:59 AM
The whole team hit the mid-to late summer wall,it seems.
Not only are the starting pitchers tired but the team as a whole seems lacking vitality.
I feel that entering september is like walking through a door of sorts.
The pitchers will take a little time to come around but look for the rest of the team on the field to quicken their step and be more focused, once the realization that the playoffs are just around the corner,takes hold.
It may creep into their psyche a little at a time,like when nearing the end of a long sea voyage you start to get excited,energized,and a bit nervous,when just a while ago you felt like the whole weight of the earth was upon you.

Flight #24
09-01-2005, 11:56 AM
Looking back at the record, in actuality, while the dark clouds love to talk about the "8-game slide in august" relative to Cleveland, that's misleading. There was a 7 game slide in the first 2.5 weeks of August. On 8/20, the lead was 8 games. It's now 7, so they've already pulled out of "the slide" relative to Cleveland.

Coincidentally, the slide occurred with Pods & Konerko out and playing the Yanks & BoSox. Since getting out of that schedule, the team's at .500, and they just got Pods back and the schedule's getting easier.

Bottom line: if you want to look at August's record overall and be scared, that's fine. But it's really a horrible stretch early that they've pulled out of. Unless you think they're going to go through that same stretch again (despite the fact that they've pulled out of it), go ahead but IMO you're unnecessarily concerning yourself.

captain54
09-01-2005, 03:40 PM
Coincidentally, the slide occurred with Pods & Konerko out and playing the Yanks & BoSox. Since getting out of that schedule, the team's at .500, and they just got Pods back and the schedule's getting easier.



If you go back and look at the record, the slide actually occured right around the 2nd Cubs series at US Cellular, the 3rd week of June, basically the end of the first half..

Since then, the Sox have played 19 series, and have only won 6, not including 2 4 games sweeps against the Indians and Orioles....so that's 8 series wins out of 19, less than .500, when a series loss was rare in April, May and June....included in that is the series loss at KC, after which the Royals lost 18 or 19 in row...

Yet, they built a 15 game lead by August 1 mainly due to the fact that the Twins and Indians were slumping...

regardless of whether you look at the bright side and say the Sox will play .500 or above in September, or you look at the dark side and say they will be lucky to play .500 or above, either way, both points are valid....both possibilities exist....baseball has too many variables to accurately say one way or another what is going to happen....

however, based on the way the season has gone so far, it has really been a tale of two completely separate, 3 month seasons....

Flight #24
09-01-2005, 03:47 PM
If you go back and look at the record, the slide actually occured right around the 2nd Cubs series at US Cellular, the 3rd week of June, basically the end of the first half..

Since then, the Sox have played 19 series, and have only won 6, not including 2 4 games sweeps against the Indians and Orioles....so that's 8 series wins out of 19, less than .500, when a series loss was rare in April, May and June....included in that is the series loss at KC, after which the Royals lost 18 or 19 in row...

Yet, they built a 15 game lead by August 1 mainly due to the fact that the Twins and Indians were slumping...

regardless of whether you look at the bright side and say the Sox will play .500 or above in September, or you look at the dark side and say they will be lucky to play .500 or above, either way, both points are valid....both possibilities exist....baseball has too many variables to accurately say one way or another what is going to happen....

however, based on the way the season has gone so far, it has really been a tale of two completely separate, 3 month seasons....

I guess I disagree with your definition of "slide". They were playing early on like one of the best teams ever, which was obviously not true (.688 winning%). In July, they played 15-11, which is good for a .577 winning percentage. To me, that's not a "slide".

In reality, they're probably a .575-.600win team that played amazingly for a stretch. If Frank was healthy, they'd still be a .650+team.

But in the AL, there isn't anyone that's better than a .575-.600 team, so they have as good a chance as anyone in the playoffs.

SoxSpeed22
09-01-2005, 03:51 PM
The problem was that in August, our finesse pitchers would wear down and our offense couldn't keep up. Obviously, the offense is still a concern, but the pitching will be better with the help of BMac and bullpen depth. Some of the position players may be tired too. Iguchi probably hit a wall because of the season being 120 games in Japan. Depth should be the cure for a long season.

4th Gen. Sox Fan
09-01-2005, 04:48 PM
Let's take a quick look at things...

If the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they finish with 96 wins.

That means for them to fall completely out of the playoffs at least three of these 5 teams have to get to 97 wins and one of them has to be Cleveland.

Cleveland: Current record 74-58. required record to get to 97W: 23-7 (ouch). Games left against teams with winning records: 15 including 3 against the Angles and 6 against the Sox. If the Sox merely split these 6 games, Cleveland's task becomes almost impossible.

Oakland: Current record 74-56. Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9. Games left against teams with winning records: 20. That includes 17 against other teams on the list. Someone is going to get hurt here. It is actually quite favorable to the Sox that they have so many games against LA, NY, Bos and Cleveland.

Angels: Current Record: 73-57. Required record to get to 97 wins: 24-8. Games left against teams with winning records: 13. That includes a big 3 game set with the Sox and more games against Boston as well as 7 against the A's. If those two teams split the 7 games and the Sox take 1 of 3, the Angels pretty much have to win every other game left. I think they are going to win the ALW by at least 3 games given the disparity in schedule strength, but if they crack 94 wins it will be a miracle.

Boston: Curent Record: 75-54. Required record to get to 97 W: 22-11. Games left against teams with a winning record: 14 all of them against teams on this list. They also have a 4 game set with .500 Toronto right before they close the season against the Yankees.

Yankees: Current Record: 74-56 Required record to get to 97 W: 23-9
Games left against teams with a winning record: 9. Again, all of those teams are on this list and they have another 6 games against Toronto. They will probably win the ALE because of the easier schdule, but the extra losses really hurt them here.

So there you have it. Things aren't nearly so bleak as some of the people celebrating their dark cloudiness would have us believe. Hang in there and keep those hands in the air...:)
You should email this to Moronotti

shaunburnette
09-01-2005, 04:50 PM
You should email this to Moronotti

no kidding, what a pig he is. today's article was disgusting. not that he reads emails from anyone, i just copied those stats to him.

Mr. White Sox
09-04-2005, 11:39 AM
I found a relevant article on the AL Playoff chase here (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2149113).