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View Full Version : Current Situation... By the Numbers


kjhanson
08-24-2005, 12:15 PM
Since late June everyone has been saying that if the Sox play just .500 ball they'll end up with between 93-97 wins. At that point, it seemed as though 95 wins would surely take the division. However, with Cleveland and Minnesota's recent hot streaks and our sudden poor play, what will it now take to win the division? The following should help answer that question, and maybe even make a few of you breathe a little easier (or harder, depending on how truly pessimistic you are):

The Sox have 40 games remaining, the Indians have 36 and the Twins have 37.

If the Sox play .400 ball (16-24): Cleveland must go 21-15 (.583); the Twins would have to go 24-13 (.649) to tie the division lead.
If the Sox play .450 ball (18-22): Cleveland must go 23-13 (.639); the Twins would have to go 26-11 (.702).
If the Sox play .500 ball (20-20): Cleveland must go 25-11 (.694); the Twins would have to go 28-9 (.757).

The worst 40 game stretch for the Sox this year is 19-21. Cleveland's best 36 game stretch: 23-13. Minnesota's best 37 game stretch: 23-14.

What it means: If Cleveland duplicates their best 36-game stretch for the rest of the season AND the Sox duplicate their worst 40 game stretch for the rest of the season. the Sox would win the division by one game.

If we play like the Detroit Tigers for the rest of the season, we'll be more than alright. As we've known almost all season, it's ours to lose. It's important to split against Minnesota and Cleveland and beat up on the likes of the Mariners and Tigers. Also, don't forget that we have 6 games left against the Royals.

GO SOX

elrod
08-24-2005, 12:34 PM
Nice to put it in perspective. We just need the bats to come alive again. The entire order is slumping, except Konerko. The pitching is still there, and Pods will be back in Seattle. But we need some hits.

cleanwsox
08-24-2005, 12:48 PM
I've been a big fan of this train of thought as well. The Sox are not going to lose every one of their remaining games. Our magic number has been sitting around 30 for awhile, but before that it was dropping quite fast every week. The fact that we havent gained a game on Cleveland in a week is scary, but a run like that and still having a 7 game lead is still pretty comfortable. Our pitching has been amazing to the point where any game we score more than 5 runs, I have a good feeling about winning the game. Once the offense comes around, they'll be ok.

maurice
08-24-2005, 12:49 PM
http://espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/6459.jpg
"I'm 4-8 in the
past 2 games."

CaptainBallz
08-24-2005, 12:53 PM
I get the point, but the issue isn't just riding the wave of the successful first half just to win the division by a game. The point is getting into the playoffs with a confident, effective team that won't lay down and can scare the crap outta the teams they face.
Bottom line, they have to have a MAJOR offensive turnaround soon or else I do see them getting bumped in the first round.
In all honesty, I'd almost rather see them not win the division then to get there only to look sluggish and get served.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.....

Hangar18
08-24-2005, 12:58 PM
The worst 40 game stretch for the Sox this year is 19-21. Cleveland's best 36 game stretch: 23-13. Minnesota's best 37 game stretch: 23-14.

What it means: If Cleveland duplicates their best 36-game stretch for the rest of the season AND the Sox duplicate their worst 40 game stretch for the rest of the season. the Sox would win the division by one game.

If we play like the Detroit Tigers for the rest of the season, we'll be more than alright. As we've known almost all season, it's ours to lose. It's important to split against Minnesota and Cleveland and beat up on the likes of the Mariners and Tigers. Also, don't forget that we have 6 games left against the Royals.

GO SOX

Very interesting and detailed. Good Job. I most certainly see your
SOX win division by One Game theory. But that doesnt make me feel better.
I dont want us stumbling into the playoffs like we did in 2000 ............

LVSoxFan
08-24-2005, 01:01 PM
If we lose the division, is it still possible we win the wild card?

Mohoney
08-24-2005, 01:06 PM
If we lose the division, is it still possible we win the wild card?

We're not going to lose this division, but it is very possible that the Wild Card can come from the weak AL Central.

Brian26
08-24-2005, 01:06 PM
Here's another crazy "By the numbers" take on things. On the surface, this looks really bad, but this actually should be a point for optimism. Let me explain.

I'm looking at the MLB season calendar I have on my office wall. I keep track of wins and losses and mark the overall record underneath. As of 4pm this afternoon, the Sox will have won a grand total of *1* ball game in the past two weeks (14 days). That's absurd. Granted, that takes into account a rain out and 3 off-days. But, still, one win in two full weeks is nuts.

Ok- why am I optimistic about this? Simply, there's no way in hell this will continue. This was an anomaly of epic proportions. Even the worst teams don't perform like this. Second, there's no way in hell the Tribe or Twinkees are even close to us without this little two week anomaly.

I think we're going to be ok. Deep breaths everyone...

kjhanson
08-24-2005, 01:11 PM
I get the point, but the issue isn't just riding the wave of the successful first half just to win the division by a game. The point is getting into the playoffs with a confident, effective team that won't lay down and can scare the crap outta the teams they face.


I'm well aware of this. This was just in response to everyone who acts like we're 5 games out.

You can't win the World Series without getting to the playoffs. This is our recipe for getting to the playoffs. Once we get there, anything can and will happen.

infohawk
08-24-2005, 01:13 PM
Good post. Ultimately, it's not the smaller division lead (seven games at the end of July is usually considered pretty solid) that has everyone worked up as much as it is the downward momentum. If we had just gone from two games up to seven games up everyone would be excited. It's the steady drip, drip downward that is so troubling. If the Sox could go on even one little hot streak over the next few days it would calm a lot of people's nerves around here. Remember, the Sox have a nine game lead in the loss column. If they can take advantage of some of their easier games coming up, they can regain some semblance of command.

cleanwsox
08-24-2005, 01:15 PM
I get the point, but the issue isn't just riding the wave of the successful first half just to win the division by a game. The point is getting into the playoffs with a confident, effective team that won't lay down and can scare the crap outta the teams they face.
Bottom line, they have to have a MAJOR offensive turnaround soon or else I do see them getting bumped in the first round.
In all honesty, I'd almost rather see them not win the division then to get there only to look sluggish and get served.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.....

Watching the Sox in the postseason and losing is still better than no postseason at all.

daveeym
08-24-2005, 01:15 PM
Here's another crazy "By the numbers" take on things. On the surface, this looks really bad, but this actually should be a point for optimism. Let me explain.

I'm looking at the MLB season calendar I have on my office wall. I keep track of wins and losses and mark the overall record underneath. As of 4pm this afternoon, the Sox will have won a grand total of *1* ball game in the past two weeks (14 days). That's absurd. Granted, that takes into account a rain out and 3 off-days. But, still, one win in two full weeks is nuts.

Ok- why am I optimistic about this? Simply, there's no way in hell this will continue. This was an anomaly of epic proportions. Even the worst teams don't perform like this. Second, there's no way in hell the Tribe or Twinkees are even close to us without this little two week anomaly.

I think we're going to be ok. Deep breaths everyone...

Don't tell KC this.

jackbrohamer
08-24-2005, 01:16 PM
Nice alternative to all the hysteria these days.

For this relief, much thanks.

LVSoxFan
08-24-2005, 01:36 PM
Well let's look at how August has fared thus far:

August 1st we completed a four-game sweep of Baltimore. Good.

-Then lost a home series to Toronto. Huh?
-Won home series against Seattle. Good.
-Took two out of three from the Yanks. Excellent.
-Lost the first two badly to Boston, then jumped on them third game only to... have it rained out.

BOOM. Since that Boston rain-out, we've lost six out of seven games.

Maybe something got rattled in Boston. Maybe the fact that Garland and Buehrle got lit up there--in our first matchup with them at Fenway this year--put a dent in our psyche. Or the fact that our first matchup with a powerhouse "winning" team resulted in us looking anemic. Everybody was saying this was a "Playoff preview." Remember? Yeah, I know we played teams like Oakland (who owned us) and Anaheim (sorry, but they were missing Guerrero).

Then we come out blazing game three and... rainout. Since then, well, you know the story. Granted, our offense has been weak all year, but Boston those first two games did make us look foolish, because we couldn't hit and they rocked our pitching.

CaptainBallz
08-24-2005, 01:40 PM
Watching the Sox in the postseason and losing is still better than no postseason at all.
To me it depends on how they get in. Even if the AL central gets close, I wanna see the Sox playin like hell to get into the playoffs, not coasting in lethargically. That'll just be pathetic, IMHO.

Mohoney
08-24-2005, 01:46 PM
I think we'll go 23-17, finish with 98 wins, and make this a non-issue, because there is NO WAY that Cleveland will go 28-8 or Minnesota will go 31-6 to force a playoff.

Hopefully, these two teams split the 6 remaining games with each other, and Detroit can play spoiler and win a few games against at least one of them.

Either way, going 10-3 against Cleveland was HUGE. Now they only have 6 games left with us to make up any ground.

The Twins have, in my opinion, the better chance. They have 9 games left against us, and are thus far 5-4 against us, including 4 in a row. However, I think that as long as we can take 4 of these 9 remaining games, starting with one tonight where we have the decided advantage in the pitching matchup, the Twins won't be able to make up enough ground against everybody else to catch us.

It's August 24th, and we're at 47 in the loss column. It's safe to come in off the ledge.

duke of dorwood
08-24-2005, 01:49 PM
:reinsy

The only numbers that count are $$$$ I refuse to spend on a hitter

anewman35
08-24-2005, 02:10 PM
To me it depends on how they get in. Even if the AL central gets close, I wanna see the Sox playin like hell to get into the playoffs, not coasting in lethargically. That'll just be pathetic, IMHO.

Well, yes, we all WANT that. The point of the post, though, is that even if that doesn't happen, we'll probably be ok. Where did you see anybody saying that they'd rather coast in lethargically?

anewman35
08-24-2005, 02:11 PM
:reinsy

The only numbers that count are $$$$ I refuse to spend on a hitter

What evidence do you have that there's a hitter we don't have because JR won't spend money?

LVSoxFan
08-24-2005, 02:57 PM
Let's keep things in perspective here people; it's not that JR won't spend the dough, it's that one of the Cinci owners is being a tool.

Even JR, being this close, I'm sure would cough up the dough. After a season like this? Yeah, he would.

SouthSide_HitMen
08-24-2005, 03:01 PM
What evidence do you have that there's a hitter we don't have because JR won't spend money?

http://www.newgenevacenter.org/portrait/stalin.jpghttp://www.ac-nancy-metz.fr/pres-etab/Charlema/Bac9euro/dossier1/images%5Callemagne%5Chitler.jpghttp://www.solrojo.org/images/mao.gifhttp://www.aha.ru/~mausoleu/lenin_mausoleum_images/castro.jpghttp://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/museum/polpot1.jpg

Evidence - we don't need no stinkin evidence.

CaptainBallz
08-24-2005, 04:35 PM
Well, yes, we all WANT that. The point of the post, though, is that even if that doesn't happen, we'll probably be ok. Where did you see anybody saying that they'd rather coast in lethargically?

Of course nobody said they'd rather see that, but the original post was painting worst case scenarios, and how even with those scenarios, they'll STILL be in the playoffs. Although it's comforting to know that the Sox played so well in the first half that they can lay a second half-egg and still get in, but the thought of some egg-stinkin Sox going up against any of the teams that were playin well and struggling to get the wild card (or whoever we'll be playing by that point) is a state of affairs that'll be hard to be optomistic about. IMHO.

Goose
08-24-2005, 04:38 PM
If anyone is interested, today, I compiled a spreadsheet that you can manipulate the Sox record and Indian’s record and it spits out how the Indians will have to perform based on the standings. It is rather intuitive (at least for a few hour’s worth of work) and will allow you to project different scenarios based on your “dark cloud” days and “sun shine” days…anyway, I don’t think I can post it directly on this board (if I receive permission from a Mod, I will upload it here), so if you want me to send it to you, PM me and I will be glad to send it over.

LVSoxFan
08-24-2005, 04:51 PM
Dude, do it if you can! That would be cool! Can you factor in the Twins as well?

Let's not count them out everybody; they're right behind Cleveland, and there's no reason they can't overtake them between now and then.

starboy0
08-24-2005, 05:48 PM
If anyone is interested, today, I compiled a spreadsheet that you can manipulate the Sox record and Indian’s record and it spits out how the Indians will have to perform based on the standings. It is rather intuitive (at least for a few hour’s worth of work) and will allow you to project different scenarios based on your “dark cloud” days and “sun shine” days…anyway, I don’t think I can post it directly on this board (if I receive permission from a Mod, I will upload it here), so if you want me to send it to you, PM me and I will be glad to send it over.

It is interesting to play with the numbers that way. I had made one myself a couple weeks ago and included a cell for the Sox's magic number and Cleveland's (actually when I made it Twins were in 2nd). Our magic number was 37 or something and the Twins' was like 60.

Now we're at 32 and Cleveland at 46. That gap has narrowed big time. Man someone has to cool off Cleveland!