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View Full Version : Podsednik's Offensive Value


infohawk
08-18-2005, 05:31 PM
I have stated in other threads that I believe our difficulty scoring runs is in large part attributable to Scott being slowed by injury. I had time, so I played around with some numbers to see what they might show. I excluded any game that Scott did not play in and here is what I found:

The Sox offense averages 5.2 runs in games when Podsednik reaches base at least once. When Scott doesn't reach base, the Sox average 3.1 runs per game. (I didn't bother to look at instances where he reached because he was hit by a pitch.)


In games where Scott steals at least one base, the Sox average 5.6 runs. In games where he steals multiple bases, the Sox average 5.75 runs.


In looking at Scott's game-by-game stats, I noticed that he was caught stealing with regularity beginning on July 23. He was thrown out 9 times in 13 attempts until being placed on the DL. To put that in perspective, he had a stolen base success rate of 85% prior to July 23. After that date, his success rate plummeted to 30%. Although he originally injured his groin around the All-Star break, the evidence suggests that the injury began worsening during the third week in July.


Scott played in 17 games beginning on July 23. He stole bases in three of those games. In those three games, the Sox averaged 4.47 runs. If those three games are removed, meaning 14 games since July 23 without any steals from Scott, the Sox have averaged 3.6 runs per game.
I just thought that some of the above numbers provide a clear picture of what many of us already know - an effective Scott Podsednik is crucial to the health of this offense. Barring another acquisition (Griffey), the Sox will most likely continue to struggle until September. Some of the struggles could be mitigated by slightly improved starting pitching, but the offense may very well continue to sputter. The good news is that we have a big division lead, and a healthly Podsednik for the entire month of September should help the Sox re-establish their momentum going into the playoffs.

DumpJerry
08-18-2005, 05:41 PM
So, now the question which is begging is:

Did something happen during the All Star break to cause the injury, in which case how do we feel now for voting for him? I always have mixed feelings about All Star games because they risk a season-ending injury to a team's top player for nothing.

Also, he was out in May (I think) with a similar injury. I wonder if that is a factor.

SoXPriDe33
08-18-2005, 05:41 PM
Those are great stats and to go along with all of those if Pods doesn't even score he causes havok with the pitchers and catchers on the opposing teams. I think that Pods will be the key to the Sox playoff and offensive success.

SoXPriDe33
08-18-2005, 05:45 PM
So, now the question which is begging is:

Did something happen during the All Star break to cause the injury, in which case how do we feel now for voting for him? I always have mixed feelings about All Star games because they risk a season-ending injury to a team's top player for nothing.

Also, he was out in May (I think) with a similar injury. I wonder if that is a factor.

I don't think that Pods getting into the all-star game had anything to do with his injury because he only got in as a defensive replacement in the ninth inning. As for Pods being out in May I don't know if he was out then but if he was it could be a factor with this injury.

CHIsoxNation
08-18-2005, 05:54 PM
I agree that Pods just plays havoc on the opponent's minds when he is on the bases. But it seems like the team has crawled up in a whole and doesn't know what to do with themselves now that Pods isn't getting in everyone's heads. I think it's time for people like Iguchi, Uribe, Ozuna, Rowand etc... to step up and start running! If they get thrown out fine, I can deal with that. But it appears that teams aren't worried AT ALL when we are on the base paths. Ozzie should get these guys going a bit, he needs to get these guys aggressive once again instead of looking so lackadaisical on the field.

....sorry about the venting :(:

infohawk
08-18-2005, 06:17 PM
So, now the question which is begging is:

Did something happen during the All Star break to cause the injury, in which case how do we feel now for voting for him? I always have mixed feelings about All Star games because they risk a season-ending injury to a team's top player for nothing.

Also, he was out in May (I think) with a similar injury. I wonder if that is a factor.

I think he actually injured it just prior to the break. It's one of those injuries that a guy can play through, unless, of course, the basis of your game is speed.

Chips
08-18-2005, 06:45 PM
And how many runs per game when Timo leads off??

Lets ballpark it and say next to nothing.

TomBradley72
08-18-2005, 07:23 PM
I think he actually injured it just prior to the break. It's one of those injuries that a guy can play through, unless, of course, the basis of your game is speed.

He injured it playing CF just before/after the break. Mike North was actually trying to argue that by playing him out of position (ie. CF instead of LF) that's the reason for the injury.

Lip Man 1
08-18-2005, 08:12 PM
He injured it according to the papers in the series with Oakland at home right before the All Star break when he broke on a ball hit into the gap from center field where he was playing.

Lip

ChicagoHoosier
08-18-2005, 08:21 PM
I agree that Pods just plays havoc on the opponent's minds when he is on the bases. But it seems like the team has crawled up in a whole and doesn't know what to do with themselves now that Pods isn't getting in everyone's heads. I think it's time for people like Iguchi, Uribe, Ozuna, Rowand etc... to step up and start running! If they get thrown out fine, I can deal with that. But it appears that teams aren't worried AT ALL when we are on the base paths. Ozzie should get these guys going a bit, he needs to get these guys aggressive once again instead of looking so lackadaisical on the field.

....sorry about the venting :(:

Iguchi and Uribe are pretty fast, and Rowand seems to pick his times to steal pretty well. I agree, and don't think that is venting, that we still have speed that can run wild and see what happens. Uribe and Iguchi do get thrown out a lot though, but maybe it would get something started and the more they try, the better they'd get.

The Wimperoo
08-18-2005, 10:18 PM
Uribe is pretty horrible at stealing. I would prefer he not try.

DumpJerry
08-19-2005, 12:01 AM
Ozuna seems to be quick on his feet, too.

Ol' No. 2
08-19-2005, 12:04 AM
Ozuna seems to be quick on his feet, too.Speaking of Ozuna, since Blum has been added, it seems Ozuna's role has shrunk to almost nothing. And when you consider the playoff roster, the only reason to put him on it is for pinch running duties. But if you're going to do that, wouldn't Willie Harris be better?

tschneid83
08-19-2005, 12:24 AM
wouldn't Willie Harris be better?

correct me if I am wrong b/c I really am not sure and have nothing to back it up but the only memories I have of willie on the bases are bad ones. I do not have a single memory of him stealing a base but I do have a couple of him getting picked off. Maybe I am just holding on to the bad thoughts but at times he seems to be lost standing on base.

maurice
08-19-2005, 01:42 PM
Willie Harris is 47-58 (81%) in SB attempts at the MLB level. That's pretty good.

maurice
08-19-2005, 01:48 PM
Speaking of Ozuna, since Blum has been added, it seems Ozuna's role has shrunk to almost nothing. And when you consider the playoff roster, the only reason to put him on it is for pinch running duties. But if you're going to do that, wouldn't Willie Harris be better?

How about keeping Ozuna and dropping Blum? Blum's current role is to give the starting IFs a rest and provide insurance in case Crede's back gives out. If Crede, etc. are healthy going into the 1st round, Blum is reduced to emergency backup IF and (maybe) defensive replacement at 1B. Ozuna can fill the emergency backup IF role and pinch run, rendering Blum dead weight.

OTOH, you'd be taking a small risk that Konerko or Crede suffer a serious injury early in the 1st round.

Ol' No. 2
08-19-2005, 04:04 PM
How about keeping Ozuna and dropping Blum? Blum's current role is to give the starting IFs a rest and provide insurance in case Crede's back gives out. If Crede, etc. are healthy going into the 1st round, Blum is reduced to emergency backup IF and (maybe) defensive replacement at 1B. Ozuna can fill the emergency backup IF role and pinch run, rendering Blum dead weight.

OTOH, you'd be taking a small risk that Konerko or Crede suffer a serious injury early in the 1st round.That assumes Gload is on the playoff roster. I can envision situations in which I'd want to pinch run for Konerko (who can't?). They'd need someone to put in at 1B in his place. If we're mixing and matching, I think I'd go for Blum+Harris over Gload+Ozuna. A little less with the bat, but better defensively and faster on the bases, which is where they'd get most of their playing time. Pretty close call, though.

Fake Chet Lemon
08-19-2005, 04:17 PM
Speaking of Ozuna, since Blum has been added, it seems Ozuna's role has shrunk to almost nothing. And when you consider the playoff roster, the only reason to put him on it is for pinch running duties. But if you're going to do that, wouldn't Willie Harris be better?

If Crede's back goes for the season, we'll be glad we have Blum rather than Harris.

Fake Chet Lemon
08-19-2005, 04:20 PM
Losing Pods was big, but Frank's loss is just as big. Timely HR's and two walks a game. I'll take that!!!! We really miss that activity on the bases with Franks walks out of the mix, base clogger or not. I'd rather have the bases clogged THAN EMPTY. Frank's injury has me really stressed about this team.

Mr. White Sox
08-19-2005, 04:35 PM
correct me if I am wrong b/c I really am not sure and have nothing to back it up but the only memories I have of willie on the bases are bad ones. I do not have a single memory of him stealing a base but I do have a couple of him getting picked off. Maybe I am just holding on to the bad thoughts but at times he seems to be lost standing on base.

Willie Harris was brought in as a PR when big Frank walked in the game against the Dodgers on turn back the clock night. He then proceeded to steal second and scored on a Carl Everett single. Aaron Rowand then singled, followed by AJ. There's a good one :smile:

He is more than good at stealing bases; it's a shame that he can't bunt, hit, etc.

And for the one who asked about RPG when Timo is leading off, it will be skewed because of the BAL CWS game when the Sox scored 10 runs (Timo had 2 of the 3 outs in that first inning)

infohawk
08-19-2005, 05:43 PM
Losing Pods was big, but Frank's loss is just as big. Timely HR's and two walks a game. I'll take that!!!! We really miss that activity on the bases with Franks walks out of the mix, base clogger or not. I'd rather have the bases clogged THAN EMPTY. Frank's injury has me really stressed about this team.

Frank certainly added a valuable power threat to the middle of the order. The team's early success without him, however, showed that he wasn't an essential ingredient to that success. He certainly made something that was already pretty good even better, but I think that being without Podsednik could perhaps be a bigger loss to the team only because he is so important to the team based upon the way the Sox are constructed. Don't misunderstand, I think a healthy Pods and a healthy Frank would be a devastating combination, but the team's offensive struggles really became painfully evident after Pods was hurt.