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View Full Version : BP just doesn't get it


Mr. White Sox
08-18-2005, 05:23 PM
Now, I've been browsing this site and checking their "notebooks", just to get an idea of what the other type of baseball fan is thinking. Some of their features (like looking at how wrong or right they were in predicting players' numbers this year) are interesting, but the site goes really stat-crazy with numbers like VORP, MLVr, WARP, etc.

Here's an excerpt of them bashing the CLee trade:

From the press Podzilla and his 54 steals have gotten this season (Sports Illustrated was the latest to weigh in), you'd think he was the centerpiece of a juggernaut attack. That's far from the case--even gobs of heists can't cancel out a -0.115 MLVr, and with only 7.7 runs of VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=vorp) in 433 plate appearances, Podsednik is a slump (or a groin pull (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4338)) away from replacement level at the plate. The only evidence that his speed helps win games is in the outfield, where Podsednik has racked up 10 fielding runs above average in left. However, given the variability of defensive performance--Podsednik was below average in center last year for Milwaukee, while Lee was 14 runs above average in left in '04 before dipping to -8 so far this year--the trade was still a superb one for the Brewers.


They neglect to mention Carlos Lee's $8 million salary, and I can assume that VORP is probably not affected much by stolen bases. Using the VORP stat, which that site seems to have a major crush on, Carlos Lee has a 32.1 VORP. The stat is immediately debunked when you look at Luis Vizcaino (11.9> Marte or El Duque), but if we add all of the players acquired due to the CLee trade and the loss of payroll to go along with it (Vizcaino, Pods, A.J., Tadahito,) the VORP = 51.4...
Imagine if we still had Carlos Lee in LF, and Sandy Alomar Jr., Jose Valentin, Willie Harris, and Dye as the starters, along with Adkins or Shingo in the bullpen instead of Vizcaino (I am assuming Maggs would be unsigned either way, and doubly so if CLee stays). VORP = 39.2-43.4 (depending on Adkins/Shingo in bpen)


Stats can be skewed any number of ways, and in BP's case, they use their own created statistics, then skew them in such a way to make every single theory of theirs (Sox suck, Sox overperforming, Pods sucks and always will, KW is a moron and is constantly duped, Beane = God) manifest itself in one way or another.


Oh, and for you Timo haters, if you believe in the VORP statistic, Timo's is the lowest on the team at -5.1 (which I believe means that an average player will help the team 5.1 units (runs? wins? I dunno) more than Timo can)

Ol' No. 2
08-18-2005, 05:28 PM
They're forgetting his BRAAP of +4.7 and his SKYZYX of +108.4. What's wrong with those guys?

UofCSoxFan
08-18-2005, 05:32 PM
Not to mention the *** of .989.

Chisox003
08-18-2005, 05:39 PM
That's far from the case--even gobs of heists can't cancel out a -0.115 MLVr, and with only 7.7 runs of VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=vorp) in 433 plate appearances....

Whaaaaaat?? Gotta be FOBB's ... No doubt about it

:rolleyes:

TimoPerez
08-18-2005, 05:39 PM
I almost bought 100 shares of VORP yesterday. Good thing I didn't if it is down 5.1.

The Wimperoo
08-18-2005, 05:39 PM
I saw in the daily email they had an article on how much speed has an effect on OBP. Of course that is premium content, and I'm not paying 50 dollars for it. But I would be interested in seeing what it has to say.

Unregistered
08-18-2005, 05:46 PM
Looks like the Sox will need to win the World Series this year to improve their **** rating with these moronic stat sites.

samram
08-18-2005, 05:53 PM
They're forgetting his BRAAP of +4.7 and his SKYZYX of +108.4. What's wrong with those guys?

True, but his JSOINRE is -3.7. I don't see how a team wins a championship with their leadoff hitter doing that.

ilsox7
08-18-2005, 06:08 PM
They're forgetting his BRAAP of +4.7 and his SKYZYX of +108.4. What's wrong with those guys?

The sad thing is, when I first read your post, I thought it was yet another BP Crap Stat I missed out on. Then I saw you were the author, a fellow non-crazy stat head, and had a good chuckle!

Chips
08-18-2005, 07:22 PM
They're forgetting his BRAAP of +4.7 and his SKYZYX of +108.4. What's wrong with those guys?

This **** reminds me of FDR New Deal.

kittle42
08-18-2005, 07:47 PM
This **** reminds me of FDR New Deal.

FDR's VORP was at its height at the end of his second term!

Lip Man 1
08-18-2005, 08:17 PM
I sense Jeremy 1 will be posting a novella about this thread soon :D:

Lip

MisterB
08-18-2005, 09:03 PM
FDR's VORP was at its height at the end of his second term!

VORP = Value Over Replacement President?

BTW, I hear the easiest way to raise your BRAAP is to dring lots of beer or carbonated beverages...

http://www.umanitoba.ca/cm/vol8/no1/burp.jpg

Frater Perdurabo
08-18-2005, 10:06 PM
FDR's VORP was at its height at the end of his second term!

Careful, or this thread will end up with a high RH factor! :tongue:

SomebodyToldMe
08-18-2005, 10:23 PM
The only thing I can say is that my *** meter is 1.000 :?:

Cat Thief
08-18-2005, 10:26 PM
Not to mention the *** of .989.


LMAO

SABRSox
08-19-2005, 01:29 AM
I sense Jeremy 1 will be posting a novella about this thread soon :D:

Lip

I doubt you'll be seeing that any time soon. I noticed that he just got banned tonight. What a shame...

UofCSoxFan
08-19-2005, 01:37 AM
This **** reminds me of FDR New Deal.

You definitely don't hear enough about the Tennesee Valley Authroity (TVA) these days.

SABRSox
08-19-2005, 01:58 AM
They neglect to mention Carlos Lee's $8 million salary, and I can assume that VORP is probably not affected much by stolen bases. Using the VORP stat, which that site seems to have a major crush on, Carlos Lee has a 32.1 VORP. The stat is immediately debunked when you look at Luis Vizcaino (11.9> Marte or El Duque), but if we add all of the players acquired due to the CLee trade and the loss of payroll to go along with it (Vizcaino, Pods, A.J., Tadahito,) the VORP = 51.4...
Imagine if we still had Carlos Lee in LF, and Sandy Alomar Jr., Jose Valentin, Willie Harris, and Dye as the starters, along with Adkins or Shingo in the bullpen instead of Vizcaino (I am assuming Maggs would be unsigned either way, and doubly so if CLee stays). VORP = 39.2-43.4 (depending on Adkins/Shingo in bpen)


Stats can be skewed any number of ways, and in BP's case, they use their own created statistics, then skew them in such a way to make every single theory of theirs (Sox suck, Sox overperforming, Pods sucks and always will, KW is a moron and is constantly duped, Beane = God) manifest itself in one way or another.

VORP is skewed for players with high OBP's. I don't know why BP doesn't come out and admit this. I personally don't use VORP because it is completely entrenched in this mantra of delaying the third out of an inning at all costs. Personally, and especially this year, I've been interested in stats regarding RISP. I feel that getting into scoring position is more indicative to a player's worth than merely getting on base.

A player like Podsednik has more worth in my opinion than a high OBP guy like Bill Mueller who is going to clog up the basepaths. For everytime he gets on base, how many times does he advance to second? Well, that depends on his teammates. Now, Podsednik, who doesn't get on base nearly as often, has the ability to advance himself to second almost at will when he is 100% healthy.

I haven't crunched numbers, but I'm willing to bet that if you take a no pop, slow as heck high OBP player, and run him up against Podsednik, I'd bet that among the times both players reached base, Podsednik probably has a higher percentage of advancing to second than the OBP guy. That's value there, value ignored by BP.

I think a lot of what BP does has merit, but you are right about their attitude. It's way too uppity. They're locked into their methods, and that's unfortunate. I like sabermetrics because it offers a different view of baseball than the seemingly subjective world of scouting (though I think sabermetricians overblow that too). I only wish some people (especially at BP) would be willing to take the White Sox success and break it down and maybe come up with some new thoughts and reasons, maybe even re-think some of their theories, as opposed to tearing it down and calling it a fluke because it doesn't fit their mold. That's where BP fails...

FarWestChicago
08-19-2005, 02:06 AM
VORP is skewed for players with high OBP's. I don't know why BP doesn't come out and admit this. I personally don't use VORP because it is completely entrenched in this mantra of delaying the third out of an inning at all costs. Personally, and especially this year, I've been interested in stats regarding RISP. I feel that getting into scoring position is more indicative to a player's worth than merely getting on base.

A player like Podsednik has more worth in my opinion than a high OBP guy like Bill Mueller who is going to clog up the basepaths. For everytime he gets on base, how many times does he advance to second? Well, that depends on his teammates. Now, Podsednik, who doesn't get on base nearly as often, has the ability to advance himself to second almost at will when he is 100% healthy.

I haven't crunched numbers, but I'm willing to bet that if you take a no pop, slow as heck high OBP player, and run him up against Podsednik, I'd bet that among the times both players reached base, Podsednik probably has a higher percentage of advancing to second than the OBP guy. That's value there, value ignored by BP.

I think a lot of what BP does has merit, but you are right about their attitude. It's way too uppity. They're locked into their methods, and that's unfortunate. I like sabermetrics because it offers a different view of baseball than the seemingly subjective world of scouting (though I think sabermetricians overblow that too). I only wish some people (especially at BP) would be willing to take the White Sox success and break it down and maybe come up with some new thoughts and reasons, maybe even re-think some of their theories, as opposed to tearing it down and calling it a fluke because it doesn't fit their mold. That's where BP fails...If jeremyb1 possessed that insight and maturity, he would still be around. You give statheads a good name. :cool:

Mr. White Sox
08-19-2005, 05:25 AM
...I only wish some people (especially at BP) would be willing to take the White Sox success and break it down and maybe come up with some new thoughts and reasons, maybe even re-think some of their theories, as opposed to tearing it down and calling it a fluke because it doesn't fit their mold. That's where BP fails...

I read your post, understood everything, and agreed with most if not all of it. BP is interesting to look at, but I absolutely hate their attitude and inability to adjust, which is why I'd never pay money for a site like that. It also seems like they make it very difficult for one to get into a statistical look at baseball, due to the ratio of stats/explanations of said stats. If BP were to adjust to "anomalies", like you said, the site would be far more tolerable IMHO. Thanks for your post.

maurice
08-19-2005, 01:16 PM
Personally, and especially this year, I've been interested in stats regarding RISP. I feel that getting into scoring position is more indicative to a player's worth than merely getting on base. A player like Podsednik has more worth in my opinion than a high OBP guy like Bill Mueller who is going to clog up the basepaths.

Very interesting. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. :D:

A get-on-and-clog-the-bases player like Mueller may have more value batting 2nd on a team with lots of HR hitters, where "scoring position" often is first base.

On a related note, I can't buy into the BB notion that SB attempts are usually a bad thing. Maybe for Juan Uribe, but not for the many MLB players who can steal at a very high clip. Also, the full effect of speed has not been quantified. There's much more to it than OBP, SB, CS, and RF. What about the times that Podsednik:
- distracts the pitcher, causing him to hang a pitch?
- forces the catcher to call extra fastballs to a fastball hitter?
- steals second and the throw goes into CF, allowing him to advance to third?
- forces a quick pickoff, and the throw goes down the RF line, allowing him to
advance from first to third without even a SB attempt?
A guy like Mueller does none of these things.

daveeym
08-19-2005, 02:06 PM
I feel like I'm in Good Morning Vietnam with this thread.


Seeing as how the V.P. is such a V.I.P. shouldn't we keep the P.C. on the Q.T. 'cause if it leaks to the V.C. he could become a M.I.A. and then we'd all be put out on K.P.

The Dude
08-19-2005, 04:30 PM
FDR's VORP was at its height at the end of his second term!

http://origin.fox.com/kingofthehill/bios/images/bio_img_cotton.gif
"Sorry I'm late but had to stop by the wax museum and give FDR the finger."

Tragg
08-21-2005, 03:20 PM
If BP was in the least bit objective and consistent, they wouldn't be talking about this trade because Lee is NOT a BP type of hitter: No OBP (OBP's are inflated for middle of the order hitters, and Lee's sucks this year anyway).

I know why they don't like Pods, I admit that player for player we got the worst of it (but the trade was much more than player for player), but for them to ramble on and on about this subject suggests that their animus against Kenny Williams trumps their zeal to provide objective baseball analysis.

They keep talking about the Foulke trade, while never mentioning a)the duration of the 2 contracts; b)the salaries; c)the fact that Genius Billy Beane let Foulke walk and d)while they do mention Cotts, they DON'T mention that the genius himself essentially traded Cotts for Joe Valentine (in fact, certain Beane lovers on this board insisted that was a per se bad trade for us because Beane trading Cotts proved he was no good).

The basic BP premise has always been dubious, as it is invalid in the post-season (which they attribute to luck). They always peppered it with hero-worshipping of GMs who seemed to liek their model. But now they are dousing their analysis with a lack of objectivity, bias and agendas.

fquaye149
08-21-2005, 03:31 PM
http://origin.fox.com/kingofthehill/bios/images/bio_img_cotton.gif
"Sorry I'm late but had to stop by the wax museum and give FDR the finger."

not to hijack but.

"whatever you say...HILLARY"

mdep524
08-21-2005, 03:40 PM
If BP was in the least bit objective and consistent, they wouldn't be talking about this trade because Lee is NOT a BP type of hitter: No OBP (OBP's are inflated for middle of the order hitters, and Lee's sucks this year anyway).

I know why they don't like Pods, I admit that player for player we got the worst of it (but the trade was much more than player for player), but for them to ramble on and on about this subject suggests that their animus against Kenny Williams trumps their zeal to provide objective baseball analysis.

They keep talking about the Foulke trade, while never mentioning a)the duration of the 2 contracts; b)the salaries; c)the fact that Genius Billy Beane let Foulke walk and d)while they do mention Cotts, they DON'T mention that the genius himself essentially traded Cotts for Joe Valentine (in fact, certain Beane lovers on this board insisted that was a per se bad trade for us because Beane trading Cotts proved he was no good).

The basic BP premise has always been dubious, as it is invalid in the post-season (which they attribute to luck). They always peppered it with hero-worshipping of GMs who seemed to liek their model. But now they are dousing their analysis with a lack of objectivity, bias and agendas. I hope some of you (especially you and SABRSox) are sending some of this feedback directly to BP as well. It is all excellent criticism and they should hear it.

nedlug
08-22-2005, 06:41 PM
There's much more to it than OBP, SB, CS, and RF. What about the times that Podsednik:
- distracts the pitcher, causing him to hang a pitch?
- forces the catcher to call extra fastballs to a fastball hitter?
- steals second and the throw goes into CF, allowing him to advance to third?
- forces a quick pickoff, and the throw goes down the RF line, allowing him to
advance from first to third without even a SB attempt?
A guy like Mueller does none of these things.

How about when a catcher is edgy and moving around, and the ump doesn't get a good look at the ball?