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07-30-2005, 11:47 AM
Surely there should be plenty to argue about on this site:


07-30-2005, 12:07 PM
Breakout Rate

(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=33)[ Details (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=33) ] [ Return To Top (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?ltr=B&context=alpha#top) ]

Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EQR/PA or a pitcher's PERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EQR/PA in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk. Breakout rates measure change relative to a player's previously-established level of performance. For this reason, a high Breakout score can create a falsely optimistic picture for a player who has a very poor performance record. It is far easier for a player with a baseline of 40 EQR per season to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for a player with a baseline of 100 EQR per season; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher (see also Ugueto Effect (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=182)).

:rolleyes: :rolling:

07-30-2005, 03:02 PM
The Mariners figure to make at least one deal Saturday. Eddie Guardado (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/guarded01.shtml), Joel Pineiro (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/pineijo01.shtml), and Jamie Moyer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/moyerja01.shtml) are the names that other teams are asking about. The return will vary depending on which offer Bill Bavasi accepts, but none will bring back real impact players like Freddy Garcia (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/garcifr02.shtml) did last summer.

And Reed, Morse and AAA-Olivo have had quite the impact. :rolleyes:

07-30-2005, 03:14 PM
I always liked Reed, and wished him success in Seattle, and it is kind of dissapointing to see how unimpressive of a season he's been having especially since he posted decent numbers in his limited time in the majors last year.