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View Full Version : Something I've always wondered...


SoxFan76
07-17-2005, 09:01 PM
What was the word around baseball when guys like Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Willis, or if you want to go back farther, Thomas, Piazza, etc. were all in the minors? Was it known that they would all be come legitimate superstars?

I've always wondered this because first of all, I haven't religiously followed baseball that long, and only recently have I really paid attention to minor leaguers at all. We (referring to your average WSI'er who hasn't actually seen any of these guys play) say stuff like McCarthy is going to be an ace in a few years, Anderson will be a star in the major leagues very soon, but in reality we have no idea what will happen. Guys become big disappointments all the time.

The case could be different for every guy, so I guess a better way to ask the question would be...which "superstars" of the past 15-20 years were pretty muchguaranteed to be superstars?

Randar68
07-18-2005, 10:14 AM
What was the word around baseball when guys like Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Willis, or if you want to go back farther, Thomas, Piazza, etc. were all in the minors? Was it known that they would all be come legitimate superstars?

I've always wondered this because first of all, I haven't religiously followed baseball that long, and only recently have I really paid attention to minor leaguers at all. We (referring to your average WSI'er who hasn't actually seen any of these guys play) say stuff like McCarthy is going to be an ace in a few years, Anderson will be a star in the major leagues very soon, but in reality we have no idea what will happen. Guys become big disappointments all the time.

The case could be different for every guy, so I guess a better way to ask the question would be...which "superstars" of the past 15-20 years were pretty muchguaranteed to be superstars?

Thomas and Cabrera were future-studs from day-1. Willis was a relative unknown when the Cubs dealt him to Florida, Pujols came up from Low-A the previous season IIRC, and Piazza was basically going to be undrafted had he not had a family tie to Lasorda...

IMO, for every "sure thing" that makes it, there are 2-3 that fail. For every upcoming "projectible stud" that makes it, probably 10 fail.

There is an old adage in baseball that even great hitters fail 6 or 7 out of 10 times to the plate, and that is probably on the conservative side if you want to apply it to the success rate of top prospects...

doublem23
07-18-2005, 12:17 PM
I really don't pay attention to the minors that much, and I generally don't hear other team's megaprospects until they hit AA or AAA (their last stop before the show), if I hear them at all, but the one guy I remember everyone gushing over was A-Rod. From the day he was drafted, he was going to be a monster.

Tekijawa
07-18-2005, 12:27 PM
ESPN did something like this last year, maybe 2 years ago, where they had the scouting reports on a Bunch of Well known and Future HOF's. Some of them were dead on, others suggested that they would never make it and shouldn't be drafted, it was pretty cool!

Found it!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=schwarz_alan&id=1813664

SoxFan76
07-20-2005, 05:19 PM
Interesting, and they had the ARod scouting report.....and you weren't lying. They knew he was going to be a franchise player.

soxfanreggie
07-21-2005, 02:07 AM
Wasn't Griffey Jr. highly touted? Some sons of pro ball players can be highly touted, maybe like a Ripken?

ClaudelSleptHere
07-21-2005, 02:57 AM
Very interesting article, but I'm not really sure if Nomar's "good package" had any place in a scouting report. Was this written by a female scout, and is a "good package" really any indication of future success?

jabrch
07-23-2005, 11:25 AM
I really don't pay attention to the minors that much, and I generally don't hear other team's megaprospects until they hit AA or AAA (their last stop before the show), if I hear them at all, but the one guy I remember everyone gushing over was A-Rod. From the day he was drafted, he was going to be a monster.

Griffey Jr also - he was correctly evaluated as one of the most talented and skilled baseball players EVER in HS.