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View Full Version : A Couple of Questions on Aaron


socko82
07-12-2005, 04:18 PM
Granted he is one of the most popular players on the team, but has his popularity gotten him a free pass this year? This is not bashing him but just an honest midseason review of Aaron's season to date.
Pro's:
- Best defensive outfielder on the team
- Had some of the biggest clutch hits of the season
- Ultimate grinder and huge part of the team chemistry
Con's:
- Has hit a "soft" .275 (only .256 with 2 XBH the last month)
- Only 34 RBI's (less than both Crede & Uribe while hitting higher in the order)

That said, 2 questions if he doesn't start to get hot in the next couple weeks and Everett and Dye continue to stay hot
1. Does he eventually end up as the guy who only starts 2-3 games a week and comes in for late inning defense?
2. I'm not saying shop him, but if SF or Florida were to specifically ask for him in a package for that stud pitcher does KW have to consider it or is it a dealbreaker?

Ol' No. 2
07-12-2005, 04:24 PM
Granted he is one of the most popular players on the team, but has his popularity gotten him a free pass this year? This is not bashing him but just an honest midseason review of Aaron's season to date.
Pro's:
- Best defensive outfielder on the team
- Had some of the biggest clutch hits of the season
- Ultimate grinder and huge part of the team chemistry
Con's:
- Has hit a "soft" .275 (only .256 with 2 XBH the last month)
- Only 34 RBI's (less than both Crede & Uribe while hitting higher in the order)

That said, 2 questions if he doesn't start to get hot in the next couple weeks and Everett and Dye continue to stay hot
1. Does he eventually end up as the guy who only starts 2-3 games a week and comes in for late inning defense?
2. I'm not saying shop him, but if SF or Florida were to specifically ask for him in a package for that stud pitcher does KW have to consider it or is it a dealbreaker?You want EVERETT playing CF?

:bundy

This team is where it is because of pitching and defense. Let's try not to screw it up.

LauraJ14
07-12-2005, 04:26 PM
You want EVERETT playing CF?

:bundy

This team is where it is because of pitching and defense. Let's try not to screw it up.


Pods can play center and Everett can play left. I am not saying that's the way to go but we need to see some more extra bases hits out of Aaron and less of the 0-2 counts he always seems to be at.

Ol' No. 2
07-12-2005, 04:33 PM
Pods can play center and Everett can play left. I am not saying that's the way to go but we need to see some more extra bases hits out of Aaron and less of the 0-2 counts he always seems to be at.Rowand has the same BA as Everett and a higher OBP. The difference in SLG has more to do with HR than doubles. And however you juggle them around, a Everett-Podsednik-Dye OF is significantly weaker than Podsednik-Rowand-Dye. No.

Randar68
07-12-2005, 04:36 PM
That said, 2 questions if he doesn't start to get hot in the next couple weeks and Everett and Dye continue to stay hot
1. Does he eventually end up as the guy who only starts 2-3 games a week and comes in for late inning defense?
2. I'm not saying shop him, but if SF or Florida were to specifically ask for him in a package for that stud pitcher does KW have to consider it or is it a dealbreaker?

Not this year, but Pods is cheap and a catalyst and the Sox have 2 very talented CF'ers coming quickly between Brian Anderson and Chris Young. Brian Anderson is already a better defensive CF'er and Chris Young is at least as good minus the arm strength (still adequate)...

Dye is signed for one more year, so unless they move him to first and Rowand to RF, it's a very crowded picture.

IMO, Brian Anderson could do today what Aaron Rowand has done this year and next year I don't think there's any question in my mind.

That said, unless you're going to make an obvious improvement in offense and without compromising the defense, I don't think you move Rowand this year.

Cowhead418
07-12-2005, 04:38 PM
I know people bash Rowand because of his RBI total this year but how much of that is his fault?

RISP:.333
Runners on:.342
Runner on Third:.333
First and Second:.500
Second and Third:1.000
Men on, 2 out: .320
Man on Third, less than 2 out: .313
RISP, 2 out: .419
Close and Late:.308

As you can see from his splits, Rowand is clutch. The problem with his RBI total is that he doesn't have runners on enough. Not his fault though.

veeter
07-12-2005, 05:02 PM
I just figure he's had a so so first half and the Sox have been great. Just imagine if he has a great second half.

VeeckAsInWreck
07-12-2005, 05:48 PM
I just figure he's had a so so first half and the Sox have been great. Just imagine if he has a great second half.

I second that. In April and May our offense was one of the worst in the league and despite that the team got off to the best start in franchise history. Dye has been solid the last month and it'll be a matter of time before Aaron starts hitting the way he did last year.

If anyone needs to turn it around it's been Juan Uribe. When he does, watch out.

Chips
07-12-2005, 05:54 PM
That said, 2 questions if he doesn't start to get hot in the next couple weeks and Everett and Dye continue to stay hot
1. Does he eventually end up as the guy who only starts 2-3 games a week and comes in for late inning defense?
2. I'm not saying shop him, but if SF or Florida were to specifically ask for him in a package for that stud pitcher does KW have to consider it or is it a dealbreaker?

He definitely needs to be out there more than 2 to 3 games a week. His glove is spectacular, and he is very clutch, look at the numbers above.

I would not include him in any trade. He's just on a minor little slump, hopefully after this break he'll break out of it.

Randar68
07-12-2005, 06:22 PM
Just imagine if he has a great second half.

People have been saying this about Konerko, Uribe, Crede, Pierzynski, and now Rowand...

That's a lot of coinciding "slumping"... Heck, if half those guys get within sniffing distance of .300 by September this offense will be dramatically more effective int he second half...

RallyBowl
07-12-2005, 09:03 PM
Aaron will have the best second half of anyone on the team.

Madvora
07-13-2005, 07:40 AM
He's been a little down, but I do think that last year's performance really is giving him a little more slack on the ripping. He's earned a little more patience.
As far as looking at future replacements... I always like to look at replacing the weakest links on the team before guys like Aaron. There are much bigger concerns at 3B and SS, even 1B before you get around to thinking about Aaron. And even before that, you'd have to look at some spots in the pitching staff.
Right now he's adequate and hasn't been actually "bad" at all this year. He has one hell of an up side and if this is as bad as he's going to get, then we're set out there.

doublem23
07-13-2005, 09:33 AM
There is absoletuly no way I want to see Scott Podsednik in center field.

hawkjt
07-13-2005, 12:49 PM
Just wondering also where Aarons power went? 5 homers? 46 so's? Maybe last year was an aberration on the homers. I thought he seemed leaner this year in spring training so maybe he lost weight to be faster. Not suggesting anything. Hope he starts making contact more often. He has to be out there.

A_ROW33
07-13-2005, 12:56 PM
I bet Trevor Hoffman wished Aaron only played 2-3 times per week.

LVSoxFan
07-13-2005, 12:58 PM
He's got a hell of an arm, though. Man, a couple of times last weekend he threw in throws from center field where we all just went wowwww.... that kept guys on 2nd from scoring.

mealfred13
07-13-2005, 01:26 PM
I know people bash Rowand because of his RBI total this year but how much of that is his fault?

RISP:.333
Runners on:.342
Runner on Third:.333
First and Second:.500
Second and Third:1.000
Men on, 2 out: .320
Man on Third, less than 2 out: .313
RISP, 2 out: .419
Close and Late:.308

As you can see from his splits, Rowand is clutch. The problem with his RBI total is that he doesn't have runners on enough. Not his fault though.

Can't really argue with those numbers, as none of them are close to being under .300. The only thing that bothers me is he's not doing very well in non-RBI or non-clutch situations. He has good speed and something like 11 SB already, so if he could get that average up to around .300 it would be a big boost to our run-scoring.

wdelaney72
07-13-2005, 01:37 PM
He's got a hell of an arm, though. Man, a couple of times last weekend he threw in throws from center field where we all just went wowwww.... that kept guys on 2nd from scoring.

Case in point. Sunday's game against Oakland. Runner on third and a fly-ball to center. He threw an absolute lazer-beam to the plate. Whoever was at third had zero chance to score.

I want Aaron playing center. Next topic.

mjharrison72
07-13-2005, 02:05 PM
I know people bash Rowand because of his RBI total this year but how much of that is his fault?

RISP:.333
Runners on:.342
Runner on Third:.333
First and Second:.500
Second and Third:1.000
Men on, 2 out: .320
Man on Third, less than 2 out: .313
RISP, 2 out: .419
Close and Late:.308

As you can see from his splits, Rowand is clutch. The problem with his RBI total is that he doesn't have runners on enough. Not his fault though.
You conveniently forgot to mention Aaron is hitting .167 with the bases loaded this year with only 3 RBI and 5 K. I'll buy the Rowand-as-clutch hitter thing, but I have been awfully diappointed with his production with the bases loaded. And not just this year. In his career, he's a .154 hitter with the bases loaded: 4-for-26 with only 13 RBI?!

maurice
07-13-2005, 02:40 PM
You conveniently forgot to mention Aaron is hitting .167 with the bases loaded this year with only 3 RBI

:tealpolice:

He's hitting .167 with 3 RBI in 6 ABs.

26 is not a good sample size either.

LVSoxFan
07-13-2005, 02:55 PM
Case in point. Sunday's game against Oakland. Runner on third and a fly-ball to center. He threw an absolute lazer-beam to the plate. Whoever was at third had zero chance to score.

I want Aaron playing center. Next topic.

That's the one! I was there. It was awesome.

mjharrison72
07-13-2005, 03:18 PM
:tealpolice:

He's hitting .167 with 3 RBI in 6 ABs.

26 is not a good sample size either.
I'm aware it's a small sample, but even #3/4 hitter with a lengthy career like Big Frank has only had 130 ABs with the bases loaded. That would be considered a small sample size, too, but truth is, coming to the plate with the bases loaded jsut doesn't happen that often, and Aaron has been surprisingly ineffective in those situations, especially considering he usually swings the bat well with RISP.

EDIT: Just because the guy blows my mind, Frank's career numbers with the bases loaded: 46-for-130 (.354), 8HR, 16BB ... and 150 RBI.

maurice
07-13-2005, 03:23 PM
truth is, coming to the plate with the bases loaded jsut doesn't happen that often

And, therefore, AVE with bases loaded is a useless stat, unless you're an extreme outlier like Robin Ventura. Also keep in mind that there is always a runner on 3B when the bases are loaded. If there are less than 2 outs, a fly ball is a nice result that would not be reflected in AVE with bases loaded.

mjharrison72
07-13-2005, 03:29 PM
And, therefore, AVE with bases loaded is a useless stat, unless you're an extreme outlier like Robin Ventura. Also keep in mind that there is always a runner on 3B when the bases are loaded. If there are less than 2 outs, a fly ball is a nice result that would not be reflected in AVE with bases loaded.
But it's reflected in the low RBI numbers. I agree Aaron's stats this year (and career) constitute a small sample size, but I disagree that it's a useless stat. Having the bases loaded is a crucial situation in which at least 1 run should be scored, especially with less than 2 out, as you point out. So I do think that looking at average and RBI with the bases loaded is important... you either drive in runs, you swing from your heels and strike out, or you GIDP and kill a rally. I want guys on my team who can drive in runs in those situations.

mdep524
07-13-2005, 03:38 PM
I really think Aaron is going to have a monster second half at the plate. Hanging line drives all over the park- especially to right field- more HRs, a .300 avg. Call me crazy, I just have a hunch.

maurice
07-13-2005, 03:40 PM
I agree Aaron's stats this year (and career) constitute a small sample size, but I disagree that it's a useless stat.

These two statements are inconsistent. If the sample size is too small, the stat necessarily is useless. It has nothing to do with baseball. It's math, just like 2 + 2 = 4.

maurice
07-13-2005, 03:43 PM
I really think Aaron is going to have a monster second half

I agree. For his career . . .
1st half stats - .266 AVE, .304 OBP, .443 SLG, .747 OPS
2nd half stats - .307 AVE, .359 OBP, .509 SLG, .868 OPS

TaylorStSox
07-13-2005, 03:50 PM
He's definitely the one to go to make room for Anderson.


I'm really surprised that the steroid conversation hasn't come up. Everyone else in the league has been accused.

Whitesox029
07-13-2005, 04:45 PM
For a guy with that defensive capability, .275 is a great average. We need to stop getting on guys for low averages. It's not that important, obviously (57-29).

fquaye149
07-13-2005, 05:14 PM
I'm aware it's a small sample, but even #3/4 hitter with a lengthy career like Big Frank has only had 130 ABs with the bases loaded. That would be considered a small sample size, too, but truth is, coming to the plate with the bases loaded jsut doesn't happen that often, and Aaron has been surprisingly ineffective in those situations, especially considering he usually swings the bat well with RISP.

EDIT: Just because the guy blows my mind, Frank's career numbers with the bases loaded: 46-for-130 (.354), 8HR, 16BB ... and 150 RBI.

If you think that Rowand's negligible bases loaded opportunities are worth talking about, you're absolutely wrong.

Either:

a.) it's too small a sample size to be relevant

or

b.) the sample size is small because coming up with the bases loaded is so rare it will almost never make a diff.

ondafarm
07-13-2005, 05:21 PM
I think Rowand is important for this year's team. He's contributed too much to the organization and the chemistry.

Unless it was for a real stud pitcher, I don't think I'd trade him.

When it comes to next year, the Sox will have an excess of outfielders. I could see a deal next year or later involving Rowand.

His defense in center is good, not outstanding. His throwing arm is above average but not a real gun.

I think Carl is much more likely trade bait.

Cowhead418
07-16-2005, 01:42 PM
You conveniently forgot to mention Aaron is hitting .167 with the bases loaded this year with only 3 RBI and 5 K. I'll buy the Rowand-as-clutch hitter thing, but I have been awfully diappointed with his production with the bases loaded. And not just this year. In his career, he's a .154 hitter with the bases loaded: 4-for-26 with only 13 RBI?!
Now he is hitting .286 with the bases juiced this year. Satisfied yet? I know it's not spectacular but it's not terrible. This is why that stat is useless if he has so few ABs in those situations. The AVG can change quickly. It went up over 100 points with just one hit.

Mark'sBrokenFoot
07-16-2005, 02:38 PM
He's definitely the one to go to make room for Anderson.


I'm really surprised that the steroid conversation hasn't come up. Everyone else in the league has been accused.

It's a side affect of the national media not really caring enough about the Sox. We all complain about the bias when we're not being covered, but in this instance, nobody was talking about Rowand before and they aren't talking about him now.

As for his missing power, well, I doubt it's the juice. He's just a 2nd half hitter. His numbers drastically improved last year after the break and I think he'll do the same this year.

Cowhead418
07-16-2005, 02:53 PM
It's a side affect of the national media not really caring enough about the Sox. We all complain about the bias when we're not being covered, but in this instance, nobody was talking about Rowand before and they aren't talking about him now.

As for his missing power, well, I doubt it's the juice. He's just a 2nd half hitter. His numbers drastically improved last year after the break and I think he'll do the same this year.
I still think he'll have about 15-18 HR this year. You're right, his numbers are much better in the 2nd half.