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View Full Version : BP re-evaluates the Garcia deal....sort of


Flight #24
06-29-2005, 05:00 PM
Interesting tidbits in BP's latest "Notebook (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4175)". Specifically:

On Jeremy Reed: Reedís full-season debut has been pedestrian
On Miguel Olivo: Olivoís disaster season has found no consolation in Tacoma. Sure, heís improved his OPS from .381 (the Show) to .633 (Triple-A), but thatís like upgrading from a tricycle to Razor Scooter (http://www.razor-scooters.com/) for highway driving.
On Michael Morse: As the sample size issues peter out, the collapse will come.
Now an unbiased eye might think of this as an opportunity to re-evaluate the trade, especially since Garcia is currently ranked #25 in all MLB starters by their own metric (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=3)(VORP).

However, there's no real mention of that, oddly enough.How can that possibly be?

doublem23
06-29-2005, 05:03 PM
BP can't admit its own mistakes? What a shock.

Hell, there are probably still a number of hold outs on these boards who feel KW made a horrible deal last year. :rolleyes:

DaleJRFan
06-29-2005, 05:06 PM
Hell, there are probably still a number of hold outs on these boards who feel KW made a horrible deal last year.

I'm sure that they will all mention that Ben Davis will never play for the Sox again, considering his season-ending tommy john surgery. That alone ruins the deal for the Sox.

BridgePortNative
06-29-2005, 05:33 PM
Jeremy Reed is something else, he is the future for the M's, very,very solid defense its amazing he hasn't broken anything with those dives he does

MIgrenade
06-29-2005, 05:49 PM
So really it turned out to be Reed for Garcia thus far. I'll take that.

buehrle4cy05
06-29-2005, 07:12 PM
Jeremy Reed is something else, he is the future for the M's, very,very solid defense its amazing he hasn't broken anything with those dives he does

Well, you can have your defense, but he doesn't walk enough. He should be playing in AAA to hone his batting eye.

Come on, this guy is on one of the few good parts of BBTN every night-Web Gems.

Jjav829
06-29-2005, 07:34 PM
Jeremy Reed is something else, he is the future for the M's, very,very solid defense its amazing he hasn't broken anything with those dives he does

Yeah, he's Darin Erstad at this point. Kind of ironic since KW has always had a love for Darin Erstad, then he goes and trades a younger version of Erstad for Garcia.

balke
06-29-2005, 07:44 PM
I've said it before, I read when the trade went down that the scout that went from the Sox to the Mariners liked Morse the most out of the trade, and felt he was the real steal out of the pack. I haven't seen Morse play yet, so I really know nothing about him.

Daver
06-29-2005, 08:00 PM
I've said it before, I read when the trade went down that the scout that went from the Sox to the Mariners liked Morse the most out of the trade, and felt he was the real steal out of the pack. I haven't seen Morse play yet, so I really know nothing about him.

That scout should be fired.

Mike Morse was signed by the Sox as a minor league FA that spent five years in A ball. He's a hack at SS, and has a decent eye at the plate, but does not draw many walks. He has a little power, but does not hit with any consistency, and tends to chase pitches out of the strike zone.

The Mariners got took.

FarWestChicago
06-29-2005, 11:06 PM
BP can't admit its own mistakes? What a shock.

Hell, there are probably still a number of hold outs on these boards who feel KW made a horrible deal last year. :rolleyes:
Cue jeremybs1. :redneck

Tragg
06-29-2005, 11:33 PM
Reed seems to play a pretty good CF. I wouldn't exactly call that pedestrian. They can't even get the good parts (for the mariners) right.

Mr. White Sox
06-29-2005, 11:37 PM
Mike Morse is hitting .370 in 81AB. Not bad eh? Although I haven't seen him play, I heard he's very below average at SS.

Flight #24
06-30-2005, 09:07 AM
Reed seems to play a pretty good CF. I wouldn't exactly call that pedestrian. They can't even get the good parts (for the mariners) right.

Well, they do mention that the Mariner's have turned OF D in to a big strength, but trading a #1 caliber (or at worst #2) pitcher for an OK-hit/great D OF, a minor league C, and a AAAA SS isn't exactly a world-beating move.

DaleJRFan
06-30-2005, 10:42 AM
Well, they do mention that the Mariner's have turned OF D in to a big strength, but trading a #1 caliber (or at worst #2) pitcher for an OK-hit/great D OF, a minor league C, and a AAAA SS isn't exactly a world-beating move.

For a guy they would have lost to FA the following season, it was a good trade. They lost Garcia for 16 starts and picked up 3 young players. Not bad for them and good for us... I don't see how Seattle got fleeced..

Flight #24
06-30-2005, 10:50 AM
For a guy they would have lost to FA the following season, it was a good trade. They lost Garcia for 16 starts and picked up 3 young players. Not bad for them and good for us... I don't see how Seattle got fleeced..

It's only a good trade if they end up getting some young players who end up being good. If Olivo & Morse end up doing nothing for them long-term, and Reed's an average player, then they got a lot less than they could/should have for a top-flight pitcher.

Heck - I could make the argument that unless Reed/Olivo improve significantly or Morse maintains his hot start, they would have been better off keeping Freddy and letting him go for compensation picks.

But the primary point is to show BP's inherent bias.

DaleJRFan
06-30-2005, 04:31 PM
It's only a good trade if they end up getting some young players who end up being good. If Olivo & Morse end up doing nothing for them long-term, and Reed's an average player, then they got a lot less than they could/should have for a top-flight pitcher.

Heck - I could make the argument that unless Reed/Olivo improve significantly or Morse maintains his hot start, they would have been better off keeping Freddy and letting him go for compensation picks.

But the primary point is to show BP's inherent bias.

I know, I know... I wasn't pickin a fight or anything, just saying that at least they got something for him instead of letting him walk via Free Agency... I agree with you. AT THE TIME of the trade, Olivo, Reed and Morse were seemingly good prospects. Reed will be a decent player in a few years and so will Morse.

Mohoney
06-30-2005, 05:52 PM
For a guy they would have lost to FA the following season, it was a good trade. They lost Garcia for 16 starts and picked up 3 young players. Not bad for them and good for us... I don't see how Seattle got fleeced..

This is a good point. Either the Mariners take our offer, or they end up with pure doo-doo from the Yankees' farm system. At least Reed has a chance to be something at the major league level, and I doubt that anybody here would have ever thought that Olivo would turn out THIS bad.

The Mariners basically had a gun to their heads to trade a guy that was going to walk anyway at year's end, and Kenny took advantage of that, which is what good GMs do.

But Daver is right, too. Any scout that looked at Morse as a big steal in this deal should seriously reconsider his line of work. I didn't think of Morse as anything more than a throw-in when this deal was made, and I still don't today.

Jerome
06-30-2005, 09:27 PM
:ass
"Kenny, this was a terrible trade. You gave up 3 future all stars for a middle of the rotation starter."

balke
06-30-2005, 09:46 PM
The best part of that deal for the Mariners is they freed up some money to go after Adrien Beltre. This guy is a monster.






























/UBER TEAL

Mr. White Sox
07-01-2005, 01:43 AM
and he's on my fantasy team!!!11!!!!
whoooooooo!