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Flight #24
06-20-2005, 09:36 AM
Came across this surfing around, thought it might be interesting in terms of our primary rivals long-term future. From www.twinsgeek.com (http://www.twinsgeek.com/)

The Twins have a fairly simple payroll situation for 2006, which doesn't mean it's happy. First, here are the approximate numbers:
Role Player Status Approx Salary ($M)
C Mauer 2nd year of serfdom $0.40 1B Morneau 2nd year of serfdom $0.40
2B Punto 3rd year of serfdom $0.40
SS Bartlett 1st year of serfdom $0.40
3B Cuddyer 3rd year of serfdom $0.40
RF Ford 3rd year of serfdom $0.40
CF Hunter Contract $10.75
LF Stewart Contract $6.50
DH Kubel 1st year of serfdom $0.40

BKUP MI Castro Contract $1.05
BKUP CI ??? $0.75
BKUP IF Rodriguez 1st year of serfdom $0.40
4th OF Ryan 1st year of serfdom $0.40
5th OF ??
BKUP C Redmond Contract $1.00

Starter 1 Radke Contract $10.00
Starter 2 Santana Contract $9.50
Starter 3 Silva Contract $3.20
Starter 4 Baker 1st year of serfdom $0.40
Starter 5 Bonser 1st year of serfdom $0.40

Closer Nathan Contract $3.75
RH Set Rincon Contract $0.70
LH Set Romero Contract $2.20
MR Crain 2nd year of serfdom $0.40
MR Bowyer 1st year of serfdom $0.40
Long MR ?? $0.75 Total $55.35

I'm taking lots of liberties here, and if you want to argue about the specifics, I won't put up much of a fight. But the specifics don't affect that bottom number much, or at least don't get it much lower. The Twins have about $55 million committed out of next year's payroll, which leaves them somewhere between 0 and $5 million to spend. That sounds great until you realize that the list of players above doesn't include Jacque Jones, Kyle Lohse or Joe Mays.

(By the way, it also doesn't include Matt LeCroy.)

So the Twins payrolll situation for next year is fairly simple. Unless they move a fairly big contract - and there aren't that many - they have about 5 million dollars to spend. They also have three gaps to fill - a starting hitter and two starting pitchers. With the years that Jones, Lohse and Mays are having, chances are the Twins will be able to bring back one of them at the most. If they acquire a large contract at the trade deadline, it will mean even more changes.

That's the starting point for offseason acquisition discussions gang. Let the speculation begin.

I know they have a great developmental organization, but it looks like they're going to need some fairly significant assistance from it just to maintain their team.

kevingrt
06-20-2005, 09:44 AM
They will find some players to stay alive in the playoff races for years to come. With Gardenhire as a quality manager he can control his players and all they really need is a pitching staff. Runs will come even if you have a below average lineup.

Tekijawa
06-20-2005, 10:00 AM
I'd like uncle Jerry to help them out by taking about 9.5 million dollars worth of contract off their hands for them next year. I'm sure that ALBATROSS of a Contract that Santana has would open up enough cash to fill those three holes!

Flight #24
06-20-2005, 10:45 AM
They will find some players to stay alive in the playoff races for years to come. With Gardenhire as a quality manager he can control his players and all they really need is a pitching staff. Runs will come even if you have a below average lineup.

Well, looking at the various changes identified:

- Replace Lohse & Mays with Bonser & Baker -->Even if these guys end up as good, most rookies are inconsistent in their first year or 2. Relying on that as #4 & 5 will hurt them

- Replace Ford/LeCroy with Kubel at DH --> First off, he's recovering from a major injury, second it's another uncommon thing for a rookie, even a highly touted one to put up the #s they've gotten from Ford/Lecroy

- Bench is not going to provide a lot of support

Now they will have likely improvements from Mauer & Morneau, but IMO the Twins won't be as good next year as this year. Now that will still make them a good team (sometimes how good they are this year is overlooked because the Sox are amazing), but it'll likely be a step back.

34 Inch Stick
06-20-2005, 10:46 AM
From what I can see, Crain looks like he will be able to supplant Lohse very nicely next year, so there is one issue solved.

I never underestimate the ability of the Twins to fill "devastating" holes. Their GM has to be one of the most underrated in the league.

Frater Perdurabo
06-20-2005, 11:21 AM
The Twins organization has reaped the rewards of many years of being terrible:

2000: 69-93
1999: 63-97
1998: 70-92
1997: 68-94
1996: 78-84
1995: 56-88
1994: 53-60
1993: 71-91

That's a lot of years to accummulate high draft picks. Not to take anything away from the Twins player development system, but when you have that many bad years, you have that many more high draft choices and therefore that many more good prospects to develop. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. The Twins have milked that acorn to the best possible extent, and for that they deserve credit.

They developed many of those draft picks into good players who have fueled their run since 2001. But that comes at a price: they haven't had many high draft picks lately. Given their "small market" status and therefore limited resources, they can't use free agents to extend their run. Without even looking at their minor league situation, history suggets they are about to enter a period of decline that even good scouting, management and player development can't prevent.

Meanwhile, the Sox are poised to make a nice run because they have a solid core of young and good starting pitchers, a plan to exploit the large market in which they play to generate more revenues to expand the payroll, and a seemingly good scouting a player development system. Furthermore, they play in a division filled with small market teams.

:supernana:

Lip Man 1
06-20-2005, 12:20 PM
And don't underestimate the impact former manager Tom Kelly had on these 'kids.' He demanded they learn to play the game correctly which perhaps is why they do so well in close and extra inning games.

Lip

MisterB
06-20-2005, 12:48 PM
The Twins organization has reaped the rewards of many years of being terrible:

2000: 69-93
1999: 63-97
1998: 70-92
1997: 68-94
1996: 78-84
1995: 56-88
1994: 53-60
1993: 71-91

That's a lot of years to accummulate high draft picks. Not to take anything away from the Twins player development system, but when you have that many bad years, you have that many more high draft choices and therefore that many more good prospects to develop. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. The Twins have milked that acorn to the best possible extent, and for that they deserve credit.

They developed many of those draft picks into good players who have fueled their run since 2001. But that comes at a price: they haven't had many high draft picks lately. Given their "small market" status and therefore limited resources, they can't use free agents to extend their run. Without even looking at their minor league situation, history suggets they are about to enter a period of decline that even good scouting, management and player development can't prevent.

Meanwhile, the Sox are poised to make a nice run because they have a solid core of young and good starting pitchers, a plan to exploit the large market in which they play to generate more revenues to expand the payroll, and a seemingly good scouting a player development system. Furthermore, they play in a division filled with small market teams.

:supernana:

Sorry, but this has to be dubunked. High draft position is only a true advantage in the first round for grabbing a top player. Past that any team has roughly the same chance of grabbing any particular player. And out of all the high first round picks becuse of those bad years, only 2 are on the Twins roster right now: Joe Mauer ('01) and Mike Cuddyer ('97). They've done a lot with lower-round picks and trading for and developing minor leaguers. The high picks are a very small part of the Twins' recent success.

Chicago83
06-20-2005, 12:56 PM
The Twins organization has reaped the rewards of many years of being terrible:

2000: 69-93
1999: 63-97
1998: 70-92
1997: 68-94
1996: 78-84
1995: 56-88
1994: 53-60
1993: 71-91

That's a lot of years to accummulate high draft picks. Not to take anything away from the Twins player development system, but when you have that many bad years, you have that many more high draft choices and therefore that many more good prospects to develop. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. The Twins have milked that acorn to the best possible extent, and for that they deserve credit.

They developed many of those draft picks into good players who have fueled their run since 2001. But that comes at a price: they haven't had many high draft picks lately. Given their "small market" status and therefore limited resources, they can't use free agents to extend their run. Without even looking at their minor league situation, history suggets they are about to enter a period of decline that even good scouting, management and player development can't prevent.

Meanwhile, the Sox are poised to make a nice run because they have a solid core of young and good starting pitchers, a plan to exploit the large market in which they play to generate more revenues to expand the payroll, and a seemingly good scouting a player development system. Furthermore, they play in a division filled with small market teams.

:supernana:

Yeah it's not hard to have a good farm system when you have 7 years of high draft picks. The Twins like most small market teams have to periodically reload and go through a rebuilding period. It looks like the Twins may have one coming soon.

This is one reason why I think the Sox have fallen short in the past 10 years. We have had so many good teams that were just not good enough. We can't just buy players like the Yankees and we haven't been able to rebuild like the Twins.

Frater Perdurabo
06-20-2005, 01:25 PM
Sorry, but this has to be dubunked. High draft position is only a true advantage in the first round for grabbing a top player. Past that any team has roughly the same chance of grabbing any particular player. And out of all the high first round picks becuse of those bad years, only 2 are on the Twins roster right now: Joe Mauer ('01) and Mike Cuddyer ('97). They've done a lot with lower-round picks and trading for and developing minor leaguers. The high picks are a very small part of the Twins' recent success.

I understand your argument, and I understand that the MLB draft can be a crapshoot after the first few rounds. But all things being equal, a second round draft pick chosen at #38 generally should be expected to be better than the guy chosen at #59. Also, think of the number of supplemental picks they've added as a result of being unable to sign their free agents. Also, with higher draft choices, the players they draft have better reputations around the league, increasing their value in trade, which means the Twins generally should expect to get more in return for trading their, say, third round pick from a given year than, say, the White Sox, Yankees or Braves' third round pick from the same year.

Again, not to take anything away from the Twins player development system, but over a period of 7-8 years these incidental differences add up.

wdelaney72
06-20-2005, 01:40 PM
The Twins have a very good developmental system, but you can't ignore those many years of high draft picks. It does make a difference. It wasn't like they were a second place team. They were AWFUL for SEVERAL years. While I don't expect them to fall to the cellar, they will continue to lose players and lose footing as the elite team of the AL Central.

Ol' No. 2
06-20-2005, 02:12 PM
I understand your argument, and I understand that the MLB draft can be a crapshoot after the first few rounds. But all things being equal, a second round draft pick chosen at #38 generally should be expected to be better than the guy chosen at #59. Also, think of the number of supplemental picks they've added as a result of being unable to sign their free agents. Also, with higher draft choices, the players they draft have better reputations around the league, increasing their value in trade, which means the Twins generally should expect to get more in return for trading their, say, third round pick from a given year than, say, the White Sox, Yankees or Braves' third round pick from the same year.

Again, not to take anything away from the Twins player development system, but over a period of 7-8 years these incidental differences add up.I'm not sure that given the uncertainties in scouting, a #38 is really significantly different from a #59. However, I think you have hit on a more important facet of this argument: the supplemental picks. If drafting is a crapshoot, it's far better to get more picks than marginally better picks.