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View Full Version : Sorry Sox Haters...


Mark
06-08-2005, 04:26 PM
...but the collapse isn't coming, at least as far as Tom Verducci of SI is concerned:

THE REAL THINGS

If you're waiting for the Orioles, the White Sox or the Padres to collapse, forget it. The surprise teams of this season have played too well for too long not to be taken seriously. From 1996, the first full season of the six-division format, through last year, 36 teams entered June with a winning percentage of .600 or better, as Baltimore, Chicago and San Diego did this season. Twenty-five of those 36 teams, or 69%, went on to make the playoffs. All but one of the 36 wound up winning at least 85 games: the 2003 Expos, who won 83. The news is even better for the White Sox, who took a .673 winning percentage into June. From 1996 through 2004, 11 teams reached the same point with a winning percentage of .673 or better. All of them won at least 95 games and made the playoffs except the '02 Red Sox -- and they won 93.

seanpmurphy
06-08-2005, 04:54 PM
People hate the Sox?

You know I dig the stats but it doesn't really mean anything. Even if the figure was 99% instead of 67% there's still that one percent you know? I think the Sox, as well as the O's and Padres have played some great ball this year and its refreshing to see some new teams starting to emerge in the league, which is true of all sports. I mean, who here seriously likes seing the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, etc always in the playoffs? Same with the Red Wings, Avalanche, and NJ Devils of the NHL when it was still around. Screw SI, and ESPN, and all those other people with hugh g. rections for the same-old-same old can suck it.:bandance:
White Sox baseball. Oh yea!

mweflen
06-08-2005, 05:08 PM
linky?

Mark
06-08-2005, 05:14 PM
linky?

That was just a short note as part of his weekly column, and it's all
in there. I think a picture of El Duque ran with it.

LVSoxFan
06-08-2005, 05:16 PM
Ain't it a bit premature to proclaim things like this?

Maybe around the ASB, but after two months? With the Twins 4 games behind?

Just askin'...

mweflen
06-08-2005, 05:18 PM
Sounds like what the author is discounting is a huge collapse. Saying we're a mortal lock to win 85 games is not that outrageous. Playoffs are another matter, with the Ravenous Twinkies biting at our heels.

elrod
06-08-2005, 05:24 PM
The 1951 White Sox started off 40-19 and then basically collapsed. They finished 81-73, which in a 162 game season translates into...85 wins. Any White Sox historians out there know why the 1951 Sox fell apart that year? Was there a big injury?

Ol' No. 2
06-08-2005, 05:32 PM
FWIW, the baseball prospectus playoff odds put the Sox at 79.7% to win the division plus 16.0% for the WC, for a composite of 95.7% to make the playoffs. The Twinkies have the best WC odds at 46.1%.

Linky (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php)

Mickster
06-08-2005, 05:36 PM
FWIW, the baseball prospectus playoff odds put the Sox at 79.7% to win the division plus 16.0% for the WC, for a composite of 95.7% to make the playoffs. The Twinkies have the best WC odds at 46.1%.

Linky (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php)

Didn't Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus just say we're slightly less than a .500 team? Does he even look at his own stats?

ilsox7
06-08-2005, 05:45 PM
FWIW, the baseball prospectus playoff odds put the Sox at 79.7% to win the division plus 16.0% for the WC, for a composite of 95.7% to make the playoffs. The Twinkies have the best WC odds at 46.1%.

Linky (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php)

According to that link, the Sox will on average go 67.9 wins and 40.1 losses. Good to see we only play 108 games.

Does BP take into account schedule at all, or just runs scored/runs against.

Ol' No. 2
06-08-2005, 05:48 PM
Didn't Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus just say we're slightly less than a .500 team? Does he even look at his own stats?Apparently not.:?:

JohnBasedowYoda
06-08-2005, 06:20 PM
hardcore analysis like that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. it also gives me that "bartender, round of tequila!" feeling

nedlug
06-08-2005, 08:06 PM
According to that link, the Sox will on average go 67.9 wins and 40.1 losses. Good to see we only play 108 games.


I'm guessing that means for the rest of the year (when it was calculated), which would put the Sox over 100 wins, I believe.

Johnny Mostil
06-08-2005, 08:59 PM
I'm guessing that means for the rest of the year (when it was calculated), which would put the Sox over 100 wins, I believe.

That's what I first thought, too, but compare with numbers for Minnesota: 90.2 W, 66.8 L.

Does anybody know how these probabilities are calculated? I think the Sox will win the division, but I'm not sure I'd put the Twins' chances of doing so at just 18 percent . . .

batmanZoSo
06-08-2005, 08:59 PM
So we're for real then? Gotcha. Boy I was worried for a minute.

thezeker
06-08-2005, 09:01 PM
If this team can just start hitting like they are capable of and scoring a few more runs I would say we have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a very good chance of advancing in the playoffs!!!! :o: :mad: :D: