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voodoochile
05-31-2005, 06:09 PM
The thread on the success of the Moneyball draft got me thinking about how many AS caliber players get drafted every year.

There are 60 AS slots open every year. For the sake of argument, lets assume that a guy capable of ever playing in the AS game has an average career length of 10 years (probably that is short, but it includes injury shortened careers).

So, on average 6 players retire every year who at one time made the AS team. That means the same number of players must be drafted every year who will eventually play on an AS team. Considering that every baseball draft has something like 1200 players drafted, the odds on actually drafting a guy who will at some point in his career make the AS game in any given year damned small 6/1200 = 0.5% chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team.

Now, HOF players are obviously even rarer. If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on draftin a HOF player in any draft is 2/1200 = 0.17%

That means the average team drafts a HOF player once every 15 years (30 teams, 2 HOF draftees per year) and an AS player once every 5 years (30 teams 6 AS caliber players drafted per year).

Now obviously those are just averages, but it does show how hard it is to predict talent in professional baseball.

My numbers seem way low, maybe someone who is better with stats can help out. Am I doing something wrong, or are my assumptions off? GIGO?

maurice
05-31-2005, 06:15 PM
Wouldn't it depend on the turnover rate for ASG rosters? There should be a significant difference if, say, the same guys are selected every year -- as opposed to if 90% of All Stars made the team only one time in their career.

Also, wouldn't the "chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team" depend on the number of draft picks each team has that year and how those picks are distributed? It looks like you may have been attempting to calculate the chance that any individual draft choice will become an All Star -- a significantly less likely proposition that, again, must largely depend on where that pick falls in the draft.

If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on drafting a HOF player in any draft are approximately 2/x where x = the number of teams in MLB at that time, not the total number of picks in the draft. I suspect that the actual figure varies widely, depending on the depth of the talent pool in any individual draft.

Daver
05-31-2005, 06:25 PM
Scouting amatuer talent is one of the hardest jobs in baseball, especially at the HS level where most players start getting scouted, projecting talent of the maturation process can be very hit or miss.

The latest trend of using propellerhead theory to replace much of what the old school scouts do is rapidly proving to be as much hit or miss as the old school approach, if not worse. Stats can give a basic knowledge of production and a projection of future production, but tell nothing about a players personality, his work habits, his drive and determination, or his flat out guts to play the game.

Larry Himes at one time assembled one of the finest scouting staffs the Sox have ever had, and was rewarded with draft picks like Frank Thomas, Jack MacDowell, Wilson Alvarez,and Alex Fernandez, as well as some other lesser known players. Ron Schueler saw fit to replace most of that staff when he took over.

Ol' No. 2
05-31-2005, 06:30 PM
The thread on the success of the Moneyball draft got me thinking about how many AS caliber players get drafted every year.

There are 60 AS slots open every year. For the sake of argument, lets assume that a guy capable of ever playing in the AS game has an average career length of 10 years (probably that is short, but it includes injury shortened careers).

So, on average 6 players retire every year who at one time made the AS team. That means the same number of players must be drafted every year who will eventually play on an AS team. Considering that every baseball draft has something like 1200 players drafted, the odds on actually drafting a guy who will at some point in his career make the AS game in any given year damned small 6/1200 = 0.5% chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team.

Now, HOF players are obviously even rarer. If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on draftin a HOF player in any draft is 2/1200 = 0.17%

That means the average team drafts a HOF player once every 15 years (30 teams, 2 HOF draftees per year) and an AS player once every 5 years (30 teams 6 AS caliber players drafted per year).

Now obviously those are just averages, but it does show how hard it is to predict talent in professional baseball.

My numbers seem way low, maybe someone who is better with stats can help out. Am I doing something wrong, or are my assumptions off? GIGO?If anything, your estimate is high. Players make multiple AS appearances, which reduces the number of AS players over that 10 year period. If each AS player averages two appearances, then the odds are reduced by half from your estimate.

Remember, only a fraction of players drafted ever make the major league roster. The 30 teams contain 750 players on their 25-man rosters, which is not even one year's worth of drafts. How many rookies are there in a given year in MLB? Maybe 100? So just the odds of making a major league roster is 100/1200=8.3%.

It's ridiculously difficult to predict talent. Kinda makes you appreciate the odds of getting a Mark Buehrle in the 36th round.

voodoochile
05-31-2005, 06:56 PM
Wouldn't it depend on the turnover rate for ASG rosters? There should be a significant difference if, say, the same guys are selected every year -- as opposed to if 90% of All Stars made the team only one time in their career.

Also, wouldn't the "chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team" depend on the number of draft picks each team has that year and how those picks are distributed? It looks like you may have been attempting to calculate the chance that any individual draft choice will become an All Star -- a significantly less likely proposition that, again, must largely depend on where that pick falls in the draft.

If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on drafting a HOF player in any draft are approximately 2/x where x = the number of teams in MLB at that time, not the total number of picks in the draft. I suspect that the actual figure varies widely, depending on the depth of the talent pool in any individual draft.

Yes, and I actually just figured that out as I was coming back to the thread. You nailed it exactly. I combined the two numbers and you corrected it.

The chance on drafting a HOF player in any given draft is 2/30 = 7% (roughly) if my numbers are accurate.

The chance that any given player will be HOF caliber is 2/1200 = 0.17% (again if my estimates are accurate).

The chance of drafting an AS caliber player is 6/30 = 20%.

The chance that any given player will be AS caliber is 0.5%.

Yes, there are anomolies given how many draft picks a team has in any given year and I rounded off to 1200 players drafted (30 teams 40 rounds) but don't know if that is accurate and didn't include sandwich picks and other random occurances. Most of those things should even out over time and I was attempting to take a rough stab at these figures - realizing that they are strictly a rough guesstimate.

Yes, longevity of given AS players would factor into a more detailed analysis, but guys who make the ASG 10 times are more likely to be HOF caliber players. The numbers bear out if the average career of any player who ever plays in even a single ASG is 10 years and there are 60 players in the game every year, by definition, 6 guys on average retire every year.

For example, Esteban Loaiza made the ASG one time in his career. Alex Rodriquez has made it 10 times (or something - I didn't check). ARod is a HOF player, ELo is an AS caliber player for the sake of this discussion.

Ol' No. 2
05-31-2005, 07:13 PM
Yes, and I actually just figured that out as I was coming back to the thread. You nailed it exactly. I combined the two numbers and you corrected it.

The chance on drafting a HOF player in any given draft is 2/30 = 7% (roughly) if my numbers are accurate.

The chance that any given player will be HOF caliber is 2/1200 = 0.17% (again if my estimates are accurate).

The chance of drafting an AS caliber player is 6/30 = 20%.

The chance that any given player will be AS caliber is 0.5%.

Yes, there are anomolies given how many draft picks a team has in any given year and I rounded off to 1200 players drafted (30 teams 40 rounds) but don't know if that is accurate and didn't include sandwich picks and other random occurances. Most of those things should even out over time and I was attempting to take a rough stab at these figures - realizing that they are strictly a rough guesstimate.

Yes, longevity of given AS players would factor into a more detailed analysis, but guys who make the ASG 10 times are more likely to be HOF caliber players. The numbers bear out if the average career of any player who ever plays in even a single ASG is 10 years and there are 60 players in the game every year, by definition, 6 guys on average retire every year.

For example, Esteban Loaiza made the ASG one time in his career. Alex Rodriquez has made it 10 times (or something - I didn't check). ARod is a HOF player, ELo is an AS caliber player for the sake of this discussion.But if AS players average two AS selections, then keeping everything else the same there will be only 3 AS players retiring each year.

Daver
05-31-2005, 07:19 PM
For example, Esteban Loaiza made the ASG one time in his career. Alex Rodriquez has made it 10 times (or something - I didn't check). ARod is a HOF player, ELo is an AS caliber player for the sake of this discussion.

That is the anomaly that throws your whole theory off kilter, players picked by the manager to fill out the roster/make sure there is a player from every team. Loaiza has had one outstanding season, so the argument could be made that the sun shines on a dog's ass once.

Randar68
05-31-2005, 07:27 PM
OK, time to blow the whole voodoo theory up...

What percentage of players in any given ASG were not drafted at all, yet were signed as foreign players?

1/3rd I'd guess is a pretty conservative estimate. The Latino and Japanese players are a big chunk.

eastchicagosoxfan
05-31-2005, 07:33 PM
The baseball draft is extremely diificult to judge. I reviewed a list of the top 10 players drafted up to 1998, as that's the year my source stops, and even using that small sampling, there are plenty of misses, and only a few hits.
For example, in 1979, the best player drafted in the top 10, was either Andy Van Slyke, or Tim Wallach. It certainly wasn't Al Chambers ( #1 overall ) or Steve Buechele ( #9 White Sox ). 1994 saw Hermmy, at #3 ( Padres ) who was picked behind Paul Wilson, and Ben Grieve, and in front of Antone Williamson, Josh Booty, and McKay Christiansen ( shouldn't he be anchoring the outfield? ). What Himes did in 1987-1990 was amazing. In 1990, Carl everett was still on the board, but he opted at #4 for Alex Fernandez. In 1988, nine teams passed on Ventura, including the Cubs, who took Ty Griffin.

voodoochile
05-31-2005, 08:08 PM
OK, time to blow the whole voodoo theory up...

What percentage of players in any given ASG were not drafted at all, yet were signed as foreign players?

1/3rd I'd guess is a pretty conservative estimate. The Latino and Japanese players are a big chunk.

I use the term draft improperly here. The equation holds true if you merely change it to how many players a team acquires every year. There is a real solid chance Iguchi will make the ASG if not this year than at some time in the future. He was signed as a FA.

voodoochile
05-31-2005, 08:11 PM
But if AS players average two AS selections, then keeping everything else the same there will be only 3 AS players retiring each year.

Yes and by definition, the average AS player must make it more than once because they all make it at least once so every guy who makes it more than once brings the average number of appearances up and the number of AS players retiring every year down.