voodoochile

05-31-2005, 06:09 PM

The thread on the success of the Moneyball draft got me thinking about how many AS caliber players get drafted every year.

There are 60 AS slots open every year. For the sake of argument, lets assume that a guy capable of ever playing in the AS game has an average career length of 10 years (probably that is short, but it includes injury shortened careers).

So, on average 6 players retire every year who at one time made the AS team. That means the same number of players must be drafted every year who will eventually play on an AS team. Considering that every baseball draft has something like 1200 players drafted, the odds on actually drafting a guy who will at some point in his career make the AS game in any given year damned small 6/1200 = 0.5% chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team.

Now, HOF players are obviously even rarer. If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on draftin a HOF player in any draft is 2/1200 = 0.17%

That means the average team drafts a HOF player once every 15 years (30 teams, 2 HOF draftees per year) and an AS player once every 5 years (30 teams 6 AS caliber players drafted per year).

Now obviously those are just averages, but it does show how hard it is to predict talent in professional baseball.

My numbers seem way low, maybe someone who is better with stats can help out. Am I doing something wrong, or are my assumptions off? GIGO?

There are 60 AS slots open every year. For the sake of argument, lets assume that a guy capable of ever playing in the AS game has an average career length of 10 years (probably that is short, but it includes injury shortened careers).

So, on average 6 players retire every year who at one time made the AS team. That means the same number of players must be drafted every year who will eventually play on an AS team. Considering that every baseball draft has something like 1200 players drafted, the odds on actually drafting a guy who will at some point in his career make the AS game in any given year damned small 6/1200 = 0.5% chance in any year that your team will draft a guy who will at sometime in his career make the AS team.

Now, HOF players are obviously even rarer. If on average 2 guys make the HOF every year, then the odds on draftin a HOF player in any draft is 2/1200 = 0.17%

That means the average team drafts a HOF player once every 15 years (30 teams, 2 HOF draftees per year) and an AS player once every 5 years (30 teams 6 AS caliber players drafted per year).

Now obviously those are just averages, but it does show how hard it is to predict talent in professional baseball.

My numbers seem way low, maybe someone who is better with stats can help out. Am I doing something wrong, or are my assumptions off? GIGO?